Dow Pauses to Contemplate the View
SOMETIMES AN EVENTFUL WEEK BECOMES a non-event. There were a couple hundred earnings releases and attendant conference calls, some inflation indicators, housing-market hints, more Dow-record hoopla, as well as a market-crash anniversary. And Google spread more giggles while Caterpillar dug itself a hole.
Through it all the indexes shrugged, hovering near their recent highs and continuing their pattern of morning sluggishness followed by late-day recoveries.
Yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average breached a new round-number level for the first time, its modest rise of 41 points good enough for a new millennium mark and a close at 12,002. The Standard & Poor's 500 made slight new headway toward another five-plus-year high, adding not quite three points to reach 1368. The Nasdaq slipped marginally, losing 14 to 2342.
Of course, even a market that largely remains still as gauged by the indexes is conveying information. In this instance, it suggests that the rally of about 12% from the midsummer lows is holding, sellers haven't yet gotten aggressive (aside from a few hours on Wednesday) and the market has decided so far not to oblige all the tardy investors who've been hoping for a dip to fill up on equity exposure.
The third-quarter earnings now streaming across screens, it must be said, are making a hash of forecasts. The 138 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have shown profit growth of 15.6% over the "Katrina quarter" of last year, several percentage points ahead of expectations.
The exceptions to the overachievers parade, such as Caterpillar (CAT), have gotten duly abused. Cat fell 14.5% Friday on its softer-than-hoped results, costing the Dow about 80 points. Yet the carnage didn't spread to the broader market, a net positive. Google's gaudy doubling of year-ago earnings the night before didn't hurt, though the successes of Google (GOOG) seem increasingly to accrue strictly to Google (and its investors) rather than its peers or the broader market.
The complaints about this sturdy rally that failed to falter in scary September and held firm in a sometimes-awful early October have been of two varieties. One is the sour-grapes response, variations on: "I didn't own enough stock to get my share" or "I was caught short the market."
The other, more nuanced knock on the market in this advance is based on perceived mixed signals under the surface that, to some, have failed to "confirm" the new high in the Dow. The lagging number of stocks participating in the climb, the merely OK trading volume, the refusal of the Dow Transportation Average to join in the new highs, the absence of the usual leaders like semiconductors leading -- this sort of thing.
None of it has yet mattered, if in fact it ever will. The abundance of skeptics looking this gift of a rally in the mouth and denigrating its gait and doubting its heart has so far made upside the path of maximum frustration. (The large number of readers who've been writing in to complain that the Panic/Euphoria chart on this page must be "broken" because they insist "everyone else is too bullish" is one anecdotal example of this.)
Short selling and protective-put buying have been more persistently prevalent than is typical during a double-digit rally. Small investors are just beginning to entrust net new money to domestic mutual funds, albeit in small amounts (see Fund of Information).
That said, sentiment is inching toward greater bullishness and rally-chasing, for sure. The cheerleaders on the tube are getting louder. And corporate insiders are starting to hit the market's bid: The ratio of insiders' selling to buying of their companies' shares jumped to 24 in the latest week, versus 14 the week before and just 4 a year ago in the October selloff. This indicator is approaching the levels seen near the springtime market top, though it isn't there yet.
So, yes, the wall of worry may not be nearly as high as it was two months ago. And, for sure, the upside momentum from urgent buyers has trailed off a bit, at least for now. But if investor emotions are headed into a new silly phase, they haven't quite reached it. As Douglas Ramsey of the Leuthold Group put it last week: "Sentiment numbers support further gains in the stock market and -- in my mind -- overrule concerns about the market's overbought status," based on still-active put buying. "The key caveat with the sentiment numbers is that things can change fast. Some news event or new milestone in the rally can 'wake up' investors to the gains they're missing, and it's at precisely that point that most of the gains will have been booked. But we're not there yet."
What clues, then, should the careful trader or investor be looking for to know when a pause, pullback or worse is near?
It makes sense to observe how the market acts in the coming week, following the heavy options and futures expiration on Friday that every pro knew had a mild bullish bias, staying sellers' hands. There's often a post-expiration hangover the first Monday morning after, but if it builds into sustained heavy supply it could mean some pent-up selling is hitting the tape.
Financial stocks, as ever, are crucial. Large bank stocks have been firm and didn't buckle after a broad downgrade by Prudential Equity Group Friday. They did underperform on Thursday as Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) reported largely on-target results. Brokerage stocks have returned to former all-time highs as a group, but are way over-extended and seem due for some give-back.
Watching the assets in the Rydex bull and bear market-timing funds is also useful as a measure of speculator sentiment. At last read the bull fund had only slightly more assets than the bear, implying a neutral state for the public's animal spirits, though this too can change in a hurry.
What's clear is that a market that's just raced higher by 12% is probably more vulnerable to some kind of news-driven excuse to sell off. Lately Iraq, North Korea, a clamorous political season and the absence of a New York team in the World Series have all failed to rattle the tape. At some point, the market's habit of spinning all news as favorable will reverse. If only we knew when.
道琼斯指数首破12000点大关
有时候事件不断的一周会变成平淡无奇的一周。上周有大量企业发布了收益报告并举行了分析师电话会议，此外还有一些通货膨胀指标和住房市场指标陆续公布，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上周四首次收于12000点上方，而在19年前的那一天，一切完全相反，受“黑色星期一”的影响，道琼斯指数遭到重挫，跌去了几乎四分之一的市值。谷歌(Google)公布了更多利好消息，而卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)发布的收益预警则使该公司股票大跌。
但各主要股指上周五并未受卡特彼勒不利消息的影响，继续维持在其创纪录高点附近，并且继续着它们前市表现不佳、尾盘收复失地的近期模式。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上周首次突破了12000点大关，这一周累计41点的涨幅足以使该指数突破一个千位整数关，稳稳收于12,002点。标准普尔500指数上周又累计上扬了不足3点，升至1368点这一5年多来的新高。那斯达克综合指数上周累计下跌14点，收于2342点。
当然，即使一个以股指表现衡量大体维持稳定的市场也仍然在向人们传递着信息。股市此次传达的信息是，鉴于股指已较仲夏时的低点上涨了约12%，股市的上扬势头因此已经稳固，卖盘尚不踊跃(上周三的几个小时除外)，而股市也决定不让那些一直盼着股市下跌的投资者如愿以偿。
第三季度收益报告的发布高潮已经来临，它使股市行情更加难以预测。从138家已发布了收益报告的标准普尔500指数成份股公司看，它们第三季度的利润较遭受了卡特里娜飓风的去年同期平均增长了15.6%，涨幅较人们的预期高几个百分点。
但卡特彼勒等人们预计会发布较好业绩的公司却表现得令人失望。卡特彼勒上周五下跌了14.5%，原因是该公司新公布的业绩让投资者失望，该股的不佳表现足以拖累道琼斯指数下跌80点。不过该股的厄运并没有感染股市大盘，在其他成份股的顶托下，道琼斯指数上周累计还是上扬的。虽然谷歌宣布其第三季度的利润较上年同期增长了近一倍，但该公司的成功越来越显得只是行业内的个别现象，并不能使人对其同行和股市大盘抱有更高期望。
股市目前的这轮上扬行情经受住了股市淡季9月份的考验，并在有时表现恶劣的10月初站稳了脚跟，对此轮上扬行情的抱怨主要有两种。一种源于酸葡萄心理：“我没有多少股票，也不想掺合这事”，或是“我是看空股市的”。
而另一种对本轮上扬行情持不屑态度的看法则是基于对当前一些相互矛盾信号的判断，这一看法认为这些信号不足以“证明”道琼斯指数有理由升至目前的历史新高。这些信号包括：参与此轮上扬行情的股票不够多，股市交投量也不够大，道琼斯交通运输分类指数未能创出历史新高，而通常充当股市先锋的半导体业领先指数等也无上佳表现，等等。
以上这些尚未对市场产生影响，即便是今后将会有所影响。面对大盘反弹这份礼物，迄今为止一直存在的深深怀疑和对其走势的挑剔使上涨走势让人们倍感痛苦。(许多投资者写信抱怨恐慌/乐观曲线一定会被突破，因为他们坚持认为“所有人都过于乐观”就是一个例证。）
在股指反弹幅度达到两位数的这段时间里，卖空和保护性地买进看跌期权一直比通常情况下更为踊跃。小投资者开始将新资金投入到国内共同基金中，尽管数量不大。
也就是说，人气显然在变得更加乐观，并在追逐反弹走势。人们的喝彩加油声也越来越大。公司内部人士已开始反其道而行之：内部人士卖出和买进自己公司股票的比值上周升至24，高于前周的14，以及去年10月份大盘下跌时的4。这个指标正在接近今年春季市场处于高点时的水平，尽管仍略低一些。
由此看来，担忧的程度还没有达到两个月前那么高的水平。显然，性急的买家推动的涨势已经有所降温，至少目前如此。不过，即使投资者的情绪正在进入一个新的狂热阶段，但也所陷不深。正如Leuthold Group的道格拉斯?莱姆西(Douglas Ramsey)上周所述：鉴于买进看跌期权的情况依然活跃，人气仍能支持股市进一步的上扬，在我看来，能够消除对市场仍处于超买状态的担忧。对人气可能产生重大影响的是情况可能迅速变化。一些新闻事件或反弹途中新的里程碑可能让投资者对他们期望中的上涨“变得清醒”，大多数涨幅显然将通过这种方式实现的。但我们还没有达到这一步。
那么，谨慎的交易员或投资者应该寻找什么线索，以了解滞涨、回调甚至大幅下挫何时临近呢？
观察市场这周的走势很有意义，上周五有大量的期权和期货到期，这令乐观情绪略占上风，使得卖方暂时收手。这种情况常常会延续到期权和期货到期后的下周一早盘，但如果持续出现大量卖盘，则可能意味着一度观望的卖家开始出手了。
同以往一样，金融类股至关重要。大型银行类股一直表现坚挺，它们在Prudential Equity Group上周五普遍下调该类股票的评级后并未大幅回落。上周四金融类股表现弱于大盘，当时花期集团(Citigroup)和美国银行(Bank of America)公布了基本符合公司目标的业绩。经纪类股整体重新回到了前期的历史高点，但涨幅过大，预计将有所回落。
关注Rydex择时交易基金中看涨和看跌资产的情况也有助于了解投机者人气。最新情况是，看涨基金的资产仅略多于看跌基金的资产，这表明公众的看法基本处于中性，尽管这也可能迅速发生变化。
有一点可以肯定，就是已经上涨了12%的市场更容易受到某些消息的冲击，从而出现下跌。最近的伊拉克和朝鲜局势，以及喧闹的中期选举等等都未能撼动大盘。在某种程度上，市场将所有消息视为利好的习惯将发生逆转。只是我们不知道这种情况何时到来。
Michael Santoli
