Understanding China
In a few days time China is expectedto announce that its first nationaleconomic census has revealed that its economy is much bigger than it thought: $300bn (￡169bn) bigger, according to early reports. Assuming this number is roughly accurate, China will leapfrog over the UK and France to become the fourth biggest economy in the world in dollar terms, even at its current (undervalued) exchange rate. Such a statistical revision, of course, does not make the Chinese economy in reality any larger than it already is. But it will change our understanding of China's spectacular economic rise and the shock-waves this is sending around the world.
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Economists had long suspected that China's old economic data were unreliable. Even so, the likely extent of the revision is striking. Beijing is expected to announce that it has, in effect, discovered an economy roughly the size of Indonesia or Turkey. What is more, this newly discovered economic activity is almost certain to be different in character to the rest of the economy: more private sector, smaller scale and weighted towards services. Add this into the mix, and China's boom will appear more robust and more normal than before, and thus more sustainable.
Size matters. The bigger the Chinese economy, the more likely it is to be able to cope with the burdens of the past, including the decline of Mao-era state-owned enterprises, which is a strain on the banking system. Add $300bn to the economy, and the ratio of bad debts to gross domestic product falls from 8.25 per cent to 7 per cent. Government debt falls from just under 20 per cent of GDP to 16 per cent.
But the composition effect matters even more. Using the old numbers, China's economy looks strikingly abnormal, with manufacturing making up more than half of total output, and an investment rate of 46 per cent of GDP. These numbers are so unprecedented they raised fears of an unsustainable investment bubble. However, the new figures will probably make China look more like other east Asian countries at the time of their economic take-off, albeit on a much bigger scale.
Seen in this new light, China will no doubt seem an even more attractive market for foreign companies. A bigger base from which to grow hastens the day when China might eclipse the US as the world's biggest economy. Higher per capita income creates markets for new categories of goods and services.
But China is more than a fast-growing market. It is a force that, coupled with and magnified by the ongoing revolution in technology, is already changing the world. It has altered the global terms of trade, shifting income from rival producers of light manufactured goods to producers of commodities - including oil - and services.
China has put pressure on the wages of low-skilled workers in rich countries, driving up unemployment in countries with inflexible labour markets and increasing income differentials. And it has helped companies achieve record high returns on capital and profit shares of national income without coming under pressure from workers for higher wages.
The consumer who enjoys greater spending power, the student who decides it makes sense to get adegree, the investor who ponders whether companies can continue to deliver high returns may not realise that their lives are being shaped in part by China. But they are. That is what the rise of a nation of this size,at this speed, means.
中国GDP超越英法的意义
根据初步报道，中国将在今日宣布首次全国经济普查结果。预计这次普查将显示，中国经济规模比原先的统计要大得多――多出3000亿美元。假定这一数字大致准确，即便按照当前 (被低估的) 汇率折合为美元计算，中国也将超越英国和法国，成为全球第四大经济体。当然，这种统计数据的修正，并不会提高中国实际的经济规模，但它将改变我们对中国迅猛经济增长及其全球影响的理解。
长期以来，经济学家们一直怀疑中国旧的经济数据并不可靠。即便如此，此次可能的修正幅度也颇为惊人。预计中国将宣布的是，它实际上新发现一个规模大致相当于印度尼西亚或土耳其的经济体。此外，从特征上讲，新发现的经济活动与中国经济的其它部分几乎肯定截然不同：它们大多集中在私营部门，规模较小，且侧重于服务业。如果把这一点考虑进去，中国的繁荣景象将比以往显得更加强劲和正常，因此也更具备可持续性。
经济规模至关重要。中国经济的规模越大，就越有可能具备解决历史包袱的能力。这些历史包袱包括毛泽东时代建立的国有企业日渐衰落，它已成为银行体系的拖累。把这3000亿美元加入经济总量，银行坏账占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例将从8.25%降至7%。政府债务占GDP的比例也将从略低于20%的水平降至16%。
但构成效应更加举足轻重。如果使用旧的数据，中国经济看上去极不正常，其制造业占总产出的比例超过一半，投资占GDP的比重高达46%。这些空前的数据令市场担心中国出现不可持续的投资泡沫。然而，新数据可能会令中国看上去更像经济起飞阶段的其它东亚国家，只不过规模大得多。
从这一新的角度来看，中国将无疑是一个对外国公司更具吸引力的市场。站在一个更高的基础上发展，中国可能超越美国成为全球最大经济体的时间将会缩短。人均收入的增加为新的商品和服务创造了市场。
不过，中国不仅仅是一个迅猛增长的市场。在当前科技革命的伴随和推助下，中国已然成为一股改变全球的力量。它已经改变了全球贸易条件，把收入从与之竞争的轻工业产品生产国转向大宗商品（包括石油）和服务生产国。
中国给富裕国家低技能工人的工资带来了压力，推高了那些劳动力市场不够灵活的国家的失业率，加大了这些国家的收入差距。它还帮助一些企业在无须应对工人加薪压力的情况下，实现了创纪录的资本回报率，并从国民收入中取得创纪录的利润份额。
具有更强购买力的消费者、认为攻读学位有意义的学生、以及考虑公司能否继续产生高回报的投资者，可能还没意识到，中国正在某种程度上塑造他们的生活。但事实就是如此。这正是一个具备如此经济规模、如此增长速度的国家崛起的涵义。
