Tentative steps forward seen as better than none at all
It is tempting, and scarcely an exaggeration, to sum up the meeting of World Trade Organisation ministers in Hong Kong, which ended yesterday, by paraphrasing Winston Churchill: rarely in the history of international negotiations have so many laboured so long to produce so little.
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Their biggest achievement was just to keep the talks alive. Another debacle, after the collapse of the WTO's meetings in Seattle in 1999 and Cancun in 2003, could have sounded the death knell for the Doha trade round and dealt a crippling blow to the organisation's credibility.
The price of maintaining unity was minimal progress in pushing the round towards completion at the end of next year, the latest in a succession of deadlines that have been repeatedly missed. Celso Amorim, Brazil's foreign minister, called the advances a series of "micro-steps", so small they were imperceptible to the outside world.
The ministers endorsed a modest package of trade and aid measures, designed to persuade the WTO's poorest members to support the round. Rich nations promised to remove most of their barriers to imports from least developed countries and to increase technical assistance, mostly by re-packaging existing aid budgets.
However, powerful resistance from Congress stopped the US liberalising all imports from poor countries and from agreeing immediately to stop subsidising its cotton farmers at the expense of poor West African producers, whose plight has become one of the most emotive issues in the talks.
Under strong pressure from most WTO members, the European Union reluctantly agreed to set 2013 as the final deadline for phasing out all export subsidies. However, the agreement appears largely symbolic, because internal EU reforms are already due to eliminate most such subsidies by then.
Guidelines for future negotiations on agricultural and industrial tariffs were refined and made more precise. In services - the sector where liberalisation offers the greatest potential boost to global growth - the main achievement was to fight off developing countries' efforts to dilute the agenda.
In short, six days of intensive round-the-clock talks, which left even veteran negotiators reeling with fatigue, have bought a little more time. Once again, all the hardest political decisions needed to open global markets have been postponed, and a new deadline set for taking them, this time by the end of April.
Admittedly, this week's meeting had not been expected to achieve much. Originally billed as a make-or-break negotiating session, its goals were steadily downgraded after Pascal Lamy, WTO director-general, concluded last month that no big breakthroughs were possible.
Some trade diplomats believe Mr Lamy robbed the talks of momentum by lowering expectations too early. As a consequence, they say, participants were more interested in playing to the gallery and posing for the television cameras than in moving the round forward.
Some of their tactics looked more like publicity stunts than serious negotiating stratagems. One was the ad hoc alliance forged by Mr Amorim between the Group of 20 developing country agricultural producers and 90 other poor countries in an effort to pressure the EU into agreeing a 2010 deadline for ending farm export subsidies.
Not only did the gambit fall short, the alliance was riddled with internal contradictions. As the world's most efficient agricultural producer, Brazil would be the biggest winner from freer global markets. But many of its temporary allies oppose liberalisation because it would erode their preferential access to US and EU markets.
Equally implausible were threats by some poor countries to veto any agreement in Hong Kong, when the only deal on offer was the development package intended to help them. Such manoeuvrings prompted warnings from some veteran trade officials that the WTO risked degenerating into a second United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, notorious as an ineffectual forum where developing countries air their grievances.
But there were also more fundamental obstacles. A charm offensive by Rob Portman, US trade representative, was unable to loosen the tight constraints imposed on him by domestic producer interests and by a Congress that is growing impatient with the Doha round's failure so far to yield any tangible gains for US exporters.
The EU entered the talks on the defensive over agriculture and hobbled by internal stresses between its 25 members, increased by tense budget bargaining in Brussels ahead of the financing deal reached on Saturday. By the end, the EU's main achievement was to avoid being driven even further into a corner.
Its negotiators were determined to drag out talks on ending farm export subsidies, mainly because continued haggling enabled them to deflect international pressure to make deep cuts in agricultural tariffs - an issue on which EU members are even more divided.
But the biggest obstacle of all is structural. The WTO's membership has been swelled by the entry of many developing countries, some so poor they cannot afford missions at its Geneva headquarters. Least developed countries, more than a fifth of WTO members, are not being asked to make concessions in the Doha round. But they are all entitled to block decisions and are determined to have their say.
Some are mainly concerned with protecting their existing rights. Others appear bent on venting their frustration by playing tactical games. With few resources, many rely on advice from non-government organisations, some of which oppose free markets and even the existence of the WTO. That greatly complicates management of trade talks.
Optimists hope, nonetheless, that the negotiating climate will improve next year. The evidence for that belief is, at best, mixed. On the positive side, the EU's budget settlement may ease some of its internal tensions, while this year's election victory by Junichiro Koizumi's reformist government may make Japan less reluctant to lower its prohibitive barriers to farm imports.
Against that, there is little reason to believe the EU will become any more willing to slash its agricultural tariffs, while the onset of next year's congressional election campaign will make it even harder for the US to offer negotiating concessions sought by its WTO partners.
Casting around for levers that could prod the Doha talks into action, the US and other governments are pinning their hopes on the expiry in July 2007 of the legislative authority that Washington needs to conduct international trade talks.
They say it would be difficult for George W. Bush to persuade Congress to renew or extend the authority, particularly if the WTO talks make little progress in the next 18 months. They believe the prospect of the US withdrawing from active engagement in multilateral trade talks will spur even recalcitrant WTO members to negotiate more constructively.
Much was made of that risk during the Hong Kong meeting, but without prompting any break in the logjam. With the clock ticking ever faster, much may depend on whether the approach of the US deadline concentrates minds before it is too late.
香港会议没谈砸就好
世
贸组织(WTO)香港部长级会议最近结束。很可能要套用温斯顿?丘吉尔(Winston Churchill)的句式来总结此次会议：在国际谈判史上，很少有这么多人辛苦了这么久，产生的成果却这么少。这么总结很有诱惑力，也并不夸张。
他们最大的成就是维持了谈判一息尚存。世贸组织1999年西雅图会议和2003年坎昆会议失败后，如果再次失败，可能会敲响多哈回合谈判的丧钟，并给世贸组织的信誉以沉重打击。
保持团结一致的代价，就是以最小的进展推动明年底完成谈判。此前一连串的最终期限一再被错过。巴西外长塞尔索?阿莫林(Celso Amorim)称，这些进展是一系列“微小的步伐”，小到外界无法察觉。
贸易援助
与会的部长们批准了一个不起眼的贸易援助方案，旨在说服世贸组织最贫穷的成员国支持多哈回合。富国承诺取消从最不发达国家进口的多数壁垒，并增加技术援助，主要是重新包装现有的援助预算。
但由于美国国会强烈抵制，美国因此停止了完全开放来自穷国的进口，也不同意立即停止补贴其棉农，这损害了西非贫穷的产棉国，这些国家的困境已成为谈判中最感情化的议题之一。
在多数世贸组织成员国的强大压力下，欧盟(EU)很不情愿地同意，将2013年定为逐步取消所有出口补贴的最后期限。但该协议似乎基本上是象征性的，因为欧盟内部改革届时将消除多数此类补贴。
农业和工业关税未来谈判的指导方针，已进行了修改并制定得更精确了。服务业开放将成为全球增长的最大潜在动力，该行业的主要成就是击退发展中国家冲淡议程的企图。
总而言之，六天六夜紧张的谈判为多哈回合赢得了一点时间，就连谈判老手也被弄得疲惫不堪。开放全球市场所需的所有最困难的政治决定，都再一次被推迟，此次最新设定的决定期限为明年4月底。
期望不高
诚然，人们本就不指望本周的会议能取得多大成果。这次会议最初被宣传为一次不成则败的谈判，在世贸组织总干事帕斯卡?拉米(Pascal Lamy)上月断言不可能有重大突破后，会议的目标一降再降。
一些贸易外交官认为，拉米先生过早降低了期望，使本次谈判失去了动力。他们说，结果，与会者们更有兴趣做秀，在电视摄像机前表态，而不是推动多哈回合谈判前进。
他们的一些策略看上去更像是哗众取宠，而不是严肃的谈判谋略。其中之一便是，阿莫林先生在发展中农业生产国的20国集团(G20)与其它90个贫穷国家之间临时组成了同盟，力图迫使欧盟同意，将2010年作为取消农业出口补贴的最后期限。
这开局的一着不仅没达到目标，而且该同盟内部也充满矛盾。巴西作为全球效率最高的农业生产国，将成为全球市场进一步自由化的最大赢家。但它的许多临时盟友反对自由化，因为那会损害它们在美国和欧盟的特惠市场准入。
穷国否决帮助自己的方案？
同样难以置信的是，部分穷国威胁要在香港会议上否决任何协议，而当时提出的唯一协议，是旨在帮助它们的发展方案。这种姿态促使一些老练的贸易官员警告说，世贸组织有退化为第二个联合国贸发会议(UNCTAD)的风险。众所周知，联合国贸发会议是发展中国家鸣不平的论坛，却没有实际作用。
但还有更加根本的障碍。美国贸易代表罗布?波特曼(Rob Portman)的魅力攻势，不能放松国内生产商利益集团和国会强加在他头上的紧箍咒。多哈回合迄今不能为美国出口商取得任何切实的益处，因此美国国会正失去耐心。
谈判启动时，欧盟在农业方面处于守势，还被其25个成员国间的内部压力所牵制。在周六达成财政协定前，各成员国在布鲁塞尔就预算问题进行了紧张的讨价还价，加重了这种内部压力。最终，欧盟的主要成果是避免更加走投无路。
欧盟谈判人员决意要在取消农业出口补贴上纠缠，从而拖延谈判，这主要是因为，持续的讨价还价，能让欧盟把国际压力从大幅削减农业关税上转移开，而欧盟成员国在这一问题上的分歧更大。
结构障碍
但最大的障碍是结构性的。随着许多发展中国家的加入，世贸组织成员猛增，一些发展中国家非常贫困，以至于负担不起在世贸组织日内瓦总部派驻代表团。在多哈回合中，最不发达国家(占世贸组织成员国的五分之一)没有被要求做出让步。但它们都有权否决决议，而且都有决心表明自己的立场。
一些国家主要关心保护它们现有的权利。其它国家似乎一心要通过耍花招来发泄它们的受挫感。许多国家由于缺乏实力，都依赖非政府组织的建议，而某些组织反对自由市场，甚至反对世贸组织的存在。这大大增加了管理贸易谈判的复杂程度。
对来年的期许
但乐观人士希望，明年的谈判氛围会好转。这一信念的依据至多也是喜忧参半。从积极的方面来看，欧盟预算问题的解决，可能在一定程度上缓和其内部紧张，而小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)的改革派政府今年在大选中获胜，可能更容易让日本降低其非常高的农产品壁垒。
在另一方面，几乎没有理由相信，欧盟会在大幅削减农业关税上有任何让步，而明年开始的国会竞选，将令美国更难做出其世贸组织伙伴所要求的谈判让步。
美国和其它各国政府在寻找推动多哈回合取得进展的工具，它们把希望寄托在2007年7月，届时美国政府进行国际贸易谈判所需的立法授权将到期。
它们表示，布什将难以说服国会更新或延长这一授权，特别是如果世贸谈判在未来18个月内没有取得什么进展的话。它们相信，假如美国有可能退出多边贸易谈判，就连顽抗的世贸成员国也将受到刺激，投入更有建设性的谈判。
香港会议期间各方十分重视这一风险，但却没能推动打破任何僵局。随着时间的脚步越来越近，事态在很大程度上，可能会取决于美国最后期限的临近，能否及时集中各方的注意。
