Treasury's Adams Keeps Eye Out For Trouble in Global Economy
WASHINGTON -- When Tim Adams, the Treasury Department's top international hand, views the global economic landscape, he sees a benign world of low interest rates, low inflation and strong growth.
So what is he so worried about?
About which developing country is ready to go bust, what hedge fund is heading toward a meltdown, which currency is teetering on the edge of collapse, what protectionist legislation Congress is yearning to pass. "There are ways of screwing up the global economy, and we have to be very careful to avoid mistakes," Mr. Adams said in an interview last week.
Despite war and high oil prices, the International Monetary Fund believes when final numbers are tallied, the global economy will have grown 4.3% this year. The IMF forecasts the same pace for 2006. These may be good times, Mr. Adams said, but "we spend a lot of time thinking about how they might end."
When Mr. Adams, the new Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, and his boss, Secretary John Snow, meet their counterparts from the Group of Seven leading industrial nations, as well as Brazil, India and South Africa, they "urge everyone to prepare for a set of conditions that are less benevolent than current ones," Mr. Adams said. Avian flu could prove an economic -- as well as health -- disaster. Rising interest rates could leave deeply indebted developing nations unable to pay their bills without sacrifices.
Here are some trouble spots and bright spots Mr. Adams sees:
U.S. Trade Deficit
At financial meetings abroad, Mr. Adams fields complaints about the American trade gap, fueled by a huge U.S. appetite for imports and an accompanying foreign thirst for investing in U.S. stocks, bonds, property and companies. There are two ways to correct the imbalance -- the U.S. buys fewer products from the rest of the world, or the rest of the world buys more American-made goods and services. The first involves slowing down the U.S. economy; the second involves speeding up the rest of the big world economies.
Mr. Adams prefers the second option. "We need faster growth out of the major industrialized countries," he said.
When his foreign counterparts press him on the trade deficit, he says he asks them if they really want Americans to stop buying their exports. The answer is uniformly "no," he says. "I can fix the U.S. current account, but it involves putting us into a serious depression through 2010," he said.
Europe
Mr. Adams has spotted growth on the outskirts of the European Union -- in Sweden, for instance -- but frets about the prospects for the big countries at Europe's core: France and Germany. France continues to suffer from slow growth and high unemployment, he noted. Germany may be showing signs of life, he said. A recent business survey showed the highest confidence in more than a decade. "There is a view that maybe Germany is beginning to turn around," Mr. Adams said.
Nonetheless, in Europe "I think we have a ways to go before we get where we want to be," Mr. Adams said.
Japan
The world's second-largest economy is expected to grow 2% this year and 2% next, according to the IMF. But for Japan, that is a remarkable turnaround. "It appears that after 15 years of languid growth, the Japanese economy has finally broken out," Mr. Adams said.
One question is whether the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates to try to cut off incipient inflation. Mr. Adams would like Japanese authorities to focus on spurring domestic consumer and business demand, and to decrease the country's reliance on exports to the U.S.
"We need another engine of growth besides just the U.S. and China," he said.
The Persian Gulf
High oil prices have left the oil-rich area awash in cash, boosting local stock markets. Mr. Adams worries there is "froth" in those markets, leaving them vulnerable in the event of a fall in oil prices.
U.S. Protectionism and China
President Bush is trying to fend off proposed legislation that would impose huge tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for Beijing's practice of keeping the yuan weak against the dollar. Many American manufacturers consider the currency policy an unfair advantage for Chinese competitors.
The Chinese allowed the yuan to creep up 2% in July, but it has barely budged since. Mr. Adams and the rest of the Bush administration's economic team hope to persuade China's power brokers to allow more flexibility in the currency and so stem protectionist urges on Washington's Capitol Hill. "There's a risk here that protectionist sentiment, mostly toward China, will spill over to Japan," he said.
美国副财长亚当斯预言全球经济问题
纵观未来全球经济走势，美国财政部负责国际事务的副部长蒂姆?亚当斯(Tim Adams)看到了一个低利率、低通胀、增长强劲的美好世界。
但仍有一些问题令亚当斯深感担忧：
哪个发展中国家将面临困顿？哪类对冲基金要遭遇灭顶之灾？哪种货币正徘徊在崩溃的边缘？美国国会又在期待通过怎样的贸易保护主义立法？亚当斯上周在接受采访时说道：“有很多因素会搅乱全球经济。我们必须谨慎从事，避免出现失误。”
尽管今年战乱频发、油价居高不下，但国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund, 简称；IMF)仍然对世界经济满怀信心，认为今年的全球经济增长率能达到4.3%，2006年也将能达到同样的增长水平。亚当斯说，这可能是一段不错的时期，但“我们花费了大量的时间来思考经济到底会有怎样的表现。”
当亚当斯和他的老板──财政部长约翰?斯诺(John Snow)与七大工业国、以及巴西、印度和南非的财政部长们举行会晤时，他俩“敦促与会的每一个人要为未来可能恶化的经济状况做好准备，”亚当斯说。禽流感也许会被证明是经济和公共卫生方面的一场灾难。不断调高的利率也许会让那些债台高筑的发展中国家为了还债而做出种种牺牲。
以下就是亚当斯预见到的经济困境和亮点：
美国的贸易逆差
在出国参加金融会议时，亚当斯巧妙回应了对美国贸易逆差的抱怨之声。美国的贸易逆差因美国对进口产品和外国投资者对美国股票、债券、地产和企业的巨大需求而不断扩大。有两种方式可以解决这种失衡──一是美国减少从世界其他地区的进口，二是世界其他地区增加对美国商品和服务的进口。第一种方法意味著美国经济增长放慢；第二种方法则要求全球其他大型经济体加速发展。
亚当斯青睐第二种方法。“我们需要各主要工业国实现更快的增长，”他说。
当他的外国同行就贸易逆差问题向他施加压力的时候，亚当斯就问他们：是不是真的希望美国人不再进口了。答案都是“不”，他说。“我可以解决美国经常项目赤字问题，但这意味著我们将在2010年之前陷入严重的经济萧条，”亚当斯说。
欧洲
亚当斯预见欧盟(European Union)的外围国家──如瑞典──的经济将实现增长，但对欧洲两个核心大国──法国和德国的前景感到担忧。他指出，法国仍饱受增长缓慢和失业率居高不下的困扰。他说，德国经济可能会显示出些许生机。最近的一份商业景气调查显示德国企业的信心达到十多年来的最高水平。“有人认为德国经济或许正开始出现转机，”亚当斯说。
尽管如此，亚当斯认为，欧洲经济距离增长目标还有一段路要走。
日本
据国际货币基金组织(IMF)估测，作为全球第二大经济体的日本，其今明两年的经济增长率可望达到2%。但对于日本而言，这是一轮显著的复苏。“它是在长达15年的低迷后出现的，日本经济最终摆脱了困境，”亚当斯说。
一个问题是，日本央行(Bank of Japan)是否应上调利率以遏制刚刚抬头的通货膨胀。亚当斯希望日本政府关注刺激国内消费者和企业需求，并减少日本对美国出口的依赖。
“除了美国和中国外，我们还需要一个增长引擎，”他说。
海湾地区
油价高企让盛产石油的海湾地区国家坐拥大量现金财富，提振了当地股市。亚当斯担心，这些市场可能存在“泡沫”，一旦油价下跌，它们很容易受到冲击。
美国贸易保护主义和中国
布什(Bush)政府正试图挡住拟议中针对中国的法案，为报复北京让人民币兑美元保持疲软的做法，有关人士已经提议对从中国进口的商品征收高额关税。许多美国制造商认为，中国的货币政策促使他们的中国竞争对手获得了不公平的竞争优势。
今年7月份，中国政府将人民币兑美元汇率小幅上调了2%，但此后人民币兑美元汇率几乎没什么变动。亚当斯和布什政府经济小组的其他成员希望能说服中国扩大人民币汇率的浮动区间，从而遏制保护主义人士在国会山(Capitol Hill)的大声疾呼。“现在在美国，主要针对中国的保护主义情绪可能会波及日本，”他说。
