China currency policy stems speculative money inflows
China looks to have stopped hot money speculation on a revaluation of the renminbi as the growth of its foreign currency reserves no longer exceeds its trade surplus.
In the four months to September China's trade surplus totalled $63.2bn, almost exactly matching its increase in reserves over the same period of $62.9bn.
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With net foreign direct investment still flooding in at $5bn a month, the balance between trade surplus and reserves growth suggests that capital has begun to flow out of China.
China has now had four successive months of net capital outflows, excluding the trade surplus and incoming investment.
For the past three years,Beijing has had to buy enough foreign currency to cover its trade surplus, foreign direct investment and hot money flows to stop the renminbi from rising.
In this period, China's foreign exchange reserves grew faster than its trade surplus, often by as much as $15bn a month. Speculative flows of hot money were a big contributory factor in the build-up of its foreign exchange reserves, which reached $987.9bn by the end of September.
But the figures are open to interpretation, with economists divided over whether they provide cast-iron evidence that speculative inflows have dried up.
Shi Jianhuai, professor at Peking University, said claims that hot money had dried up were overstated because speculative funds were able to enter China through the trade account.
"Local companies may over-report exports to obtain foreign currency to speculate on real estate," said Prof Shi. "There's still strong motivation for the inflow of hot money, as the revaluation pressure on renminbi remains unchanged."
Beijing's opening of holes in its closed capital account to ease upward pressure on the currency appears to have had a substantial impact on capital flows, as have higher overseas interest rates.
Qing Wang, of the Bank of America in Hong Kong, said the authorities had made "systematic efforts to encourage major financial institutions to keep their foreign exchange assets offshore". This included allowing state companies, such as the banks that have listed overseas, to leave some of the billions raised in initial public offerings offshore.
Another factor has been the determination of the People's Bank of China to allow only a gradual appreciation of the renminbi, which may have reduced the incentive to bring money in.
"The market consensus is that the renminbi's revaluation will be slow and gradual, making it hard to use hot money for an arbitrage play," said Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Everbright Securities in Shanghai.
中国似已阻止热钱流入
由于过去四个月中国的外汇储备增长没有再高于同期的贸易顺差，该国似乎已阻止住了热钱流入投机人民币升值。
在截至9月份的四个月中，中国贸易顺差总额达632亿美元，几乎与同期629亿美元的外汇储备增加额完全持平。
由于外国直接净投资仍以每月50亿美元的速度涌入中国，贸易顺差和外汇储备增长之间的平衡表明，资本已开始流出中国。
排除贸易顺差和流入中国的外国投资不计，目前中国已连续4个月出现资本净流出。
过去3年，中国政府不得不买进足够的外汇，来抵消贸易顺差、外国直接投资和热钱流入的影响，以此阻止人民币升值。
在此期间，中国外汇储备增长速度远高于贸易顺差增速，二者之间的差额往往高达每月150亿美元。因此，投机热钱的流入是中国外汇储备激增的重要因素。截至9月底，中国外汇储备已达9879亿美元。
但人们对上述数字有着不同的解读。对于它们是否证明投机资本流入已逐渐停止，经济学家之间存在分歧。
北京大学教授施建淮表示，宣称热钱流入已逐渐停止的说法言过其实，因为投机资金可以通过贸易账户进入中国。
不过，中国政府已采取措施，在其封闭的资本账户中开放数条通道，以此缓解人民币升值压力。加之海外利率水平高于中国国内利率，这两个因素似乎已对资本流动产生重大影响。
美国银行(Bank of America)香港分行的王庆在一份研究报告中称，中国政府已采取“系统性措施，鼓励大型金融机构将其外汇资产存放在海外。”
另一个因素是，中国人民银行(PBoC)决心只允许人民币渐进升值。一些经济学家认为，此举降低了热钱进入中国的冲动。
