THE SHORT VIEW
Nothing, not even the apparent explosion of a nuclear device just across the Korean border, can push Chinese stocks off track. On Monday, as the tremors from the North Korean nuclear test vibrated across the world, the Shanghai Composite reached a significant new landmark, hitting a five-year high. It closed at its highest level since September 2001.
This is the result of a rally that has now gone on for more than a year. The Shanghai Composite has gained 76.3 per cent since July last year and 53.7 per cent so far for 2006. The smaller Shenzhen Composite, approaching its highest level since April 2004, has done even better this year, gaining 60.7 per cent.
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Up to the middle of last year, the voracious Chinese economy had succeeded in fuelling growth almost everywhere else but had signally failed to produce returns for shareholders of Chinese companies. That gloomy phenomenon now appears to be ending.
How has this happened? Technical reforms, such as allowing initial public offerings and easing the restrictions on foreign investors, have obviously helped propel Chinese stocks' recovery. So has the growth of the economy, which has been more buoyant this year than many had expected.
Recent falls in commodities (demanded chiefly by Chinese companies) should do no harm to Chinese profits. Investors also believe that its booming internal sector should help it buck a slowdown in global growth. Thus China is getting more than its fair share of money flows from emerging markets funds. According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research of Boston, $377m of net inflows came to China and India equity funds in the last week of September, while funds investing in BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) as a whole suffered a third week of net redemptions.
China's growth is not a zero-sum game. Joe Quinlan of Bank of America points out that the income of US affiliates in China in the second quarter reached $1.1bn, up 50 per cent from the same quarter last year. After a long march, both US and Chinese companies are profiting from China.
中国股市“升势难挡”？
似
乎没有什么东西能使中国股市脱离上升轨道，即便朝鲜核试也不例外。周一，当朝鲜核试验的震波传遍全世界之际，上证综合指数创下5年高点，成为一个新的重大里程碑。该指数当日收于2001年9月以来的最高点位。
这是一轮上涨行情的结果，此轮行情已持续逾一年。自去年7月份以来，上证综合指数累计上涨76.3%，今年迄今的涨幅为53.7%。规模略逊一筹的深圳综合指数目前正接近自2004年4月以来的最高点位，该指数今年的走势甚至更好，累计上涨60.7%。
一直到去年年中，如饥似渴的中国经济成功地推动了几乎所有领域的增长，但显然未能给中国上市公司的股东们带来回报。如今，这种令人沮丧的现象似乎正在终结。
这是如何发生的呢？技术层面的改革，比如重启首次公开发行(IPO)和放松对外国投资者的限制，显然有助于推动中国股市的复苏。同样，经济增长也起到了一定作用，今年的经济增长一直比许多人所预计的更为迅速。
近来大宗商品（中国企业是主要的需求方）价格的下跌，应该有利于中国企业的利润。同时，投资者们认为，中国繁荣的国内经济，应能帮助它抵挡全球增长放缓。因此，目前新兴市场基金流入中国的资金量，超出中国股市的权重。根据波士顿新兴投资组合基金研究公司(Emerging Portfolio Fund Research)的数据，在9月份的最后一周，有3.77亿美元资金净流入中国和印度的股票基金，而将金砖四国（BRIC，巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）这一整体作为投资目标的基金，则遭遇了连续第三周的净赎回。
中国的增长并非一场零和游戏。美国银行(Bank of America)的乔?昆兰(Joe Quinlan)指出，今年第二季度，美国企业在华附属公司的收益达到了11亿美元，较去年同期增长50%。在漫长的征程之后，美国和中国的企业都在通过中国获利。
