“中国10年内全球影响力赶上美国”
Chinese see nation becoming as influential as US
The Chinese see their country matching the US in terms of global influence within the next 10 years, while a majority of Americans, Chinese and Indians see the US losing its status as the world's unrivalled superpower within the next half century, according to an international poll released yesterday.
The study by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, in partnership with the Asia Society, also revealed that Americans remained "steady internationalists" and were not reverting to protectionism and isolationism in spite of deep discontent over the Iraq war and fears for job security.
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Most strikingly, the poll - carried out in China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and the US in June and July - revealed a sense of confidence among Chinese and Indians in their countries' destinies.
Analysts called it a landmark and complex study. While there was an acute feeling of distrust between nations, especially towards the US and the rise in Chinese military power, there was also a prevailing sense that a decline in US economic and military power in Asia would have a negative impact.
However, only 35 per cent of Chinese and 39 per cent of Indians said they trusted the US to act responsibly in the world.
Large majorities in India and China said they believed a conflict over energy resources was likely in Asia. Majorities also said countries had a right to go to war to ensure adequate energy supplies.
These themes were reflected in the top foreign policy goals set by the Chinese - protecting jobs for Chinese, promoting economic growth and securing energy supplies. Combating international terrorism came fourth.
Ranking what they saw as critical threats to their interests, the Chinese first listed Aids, avian flu and other potential epidemics followed by disruption in energy supplies and global warming. Instability or conflict on the Korean peninsula was ranked ninth.
Protecting jobs was also ranked the most important foreign policy goal by Americans. Then followed preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and combating terrorism. Helping to spread democracy abroad came bottom, in 14th place.
All shared strong concern over global warming and a desire for significant steps to be taken.
Chinese see their country catching up with the US in terms of global influence within 10 years. Indians, whom panellists said seemed to have a greater sense of exuberance, placed their country second behind the US in global influence at present.
Some 55 per cent of Americans believed the US would be surpassed or equalled as a global power over the next 50 years. This view was shared by 68 per cent of South Koreans, 53 per cent of Indians and 60 per cent of Chinese. Only 29 per cent of Americans said the US should work actively to limit the growth of China's power.
Marshall Bouton, president of the Chicago Council, said Americans had a sophisticated view of the benefits and costs of globalisation. "But tensions are growing in that assessment", he said.
“中国10年内全球影响力赶上美国”
昨日公布的一项国际民意调查显示，中国人认为，未来10年内，中国的国际影响力将能够与美国相媲美，而多数美国人、中国人和印度人认为，未来半个世纪，美国将失去其作为全球无可匹敌的超级大国的地位。
芝加哥全球事务委员会(Chicago Council on Global Affairs)与亚洲协会(Asia Society)合作进行的这项调查还显示，尽管美国人对伊拉克战争深为不满，而且担心就业安全，但他们仍是“可靠的国际主义者”，没有向保护主义和孤立主义回归。
最引人注目的是，这项民意调查显示出中国人和印度人对国家的命运抱有信心。该调查是今年6月至7月在中国、印度、日本、韩国、澳大利亚和美国进行的。
分析人士将其称为一项具有里程碑意义的综合调查。尽管通过这项调查能够强烈感觉到国与国之间的不信任，特别是对美国和对中国军事实力的上升，但人们也普遍感到，美国在亚洲经济和军事影响力的下降，将会产生负面作用。
不过，只有35%的中国人和39%的印度人表示相信，美国会在全球事务中采取负责任的行动。
绝大多数印度人和中国人认为，亚洲有可能发生能源冲突。多数人还表示，各国有权为确保充足的能源供应而战。
这些主题反映在中国外交政策的最高目标之中――保护中国人的就业，促进经济发展，获得能源供应。打击国际恐怖主义排在第四位。
中国人认为，未来10年内，中国的国际影响力将赶上美国。印度人则将本国目前的国际影响力排在第二位，仅次于美国。调查小组成员表示，印度人的自豪感似乎更强。
