Oil prices --- Su (fast)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)
>> 9:12 a.m. in sydney, a rainy tuesday in the city. we expect rain to ease in the morning but showers redeveloping in the afternoon with possible thunderstorms. high temperature is 32 degrees celsius. the first trading day in the year in the energy markets begins with a plunge in oil prices. rising temperatures in the u.s. sent crude futures down in new york trading. at one point, prices fellulose to $41 a barrel. heating oil futures dropped, as well. what’s the story, su?
>> cathy, cuts demand and causes investors to scramble and readjust positions, leading to the volatility today. analysts say more volatility is ahead. weather is the story here in the u.s. it’s unseasonably warm at a time when imports have surged, supplies have jumped and refineries have boosted heating oil output. forecasters expect temperatures to remain higher than normal in the northeastern u.s. over the next week to 10 days. that’s the part of the country that uses 80% of the nation’s heating oil. refco’s marshall steeves says we’re almost at the mid winter mark and it’s now clear initial forecasts were wrong.
>> at the outset of the winter, most of the private forecasters were calling for a cold-than -- colder-than-normal winter, above-normal heating oil demand but to date, the opposite has been the case. it’s true things could turn around but for now it looks like we’ll see a normal winter or perhaps a below normal winter in terms of heating degree days.
>> heating degree days refers to the amount of energy used to heat buildings and we think that will be lower than normal. supply concerns are easing around the world, as well. on friday, rosneft took control of yukos’ former oil production unit. bear stearns michael deuceas -- dudas sees a counter trend in the u.s. dollar and middle east driving trading.
>> one of the things, not just oil, but commodities in general, when we come up to the iraq elections at the end of the month, those will be very, very big headline events, a lot of news. that will send sentiment shifts into the marketplace so i think that’s what we’ll see in 2005.
>> he’s not alone in predicting a wild ride for oil prices in the months ahead. morgan stanley’s byron wien puts oil at the top of his list for investment surprises in the new year, saying oil may take the trophy for most volatile commodity. his prediction is that oil prices may swing between $30 to $60 a barrel in the next 12 months, that’s a buckle your seat belt warning for investors. prices rose 34% in 2004. so, again, caecket, a story we’ll continue to follow through 2005, one of the top.
>> it may all depend on the weather. thank you, su. u.s. stocks fall in first trading day of 2005, led by energy and other commodities. the s&p 500 closed lower by .8%, the dow jones lower by .5% and the nasdaq losing more than 1%. julie hyman reports from the new york stock exchange.
>> a drop in the price of crude oil did not help stocks today. a couple of reasons for that. we saw energy stocks as really a heavy weight within the s&p 500, down just about 3%, accounting for between 1/4 and 1/3 of the drop in the s&p 500. also we saw a rotation out of the best performers of 2004, really selling of those kinds of stocks today. energy falling into that category, up, as you can see, 25% last year. some of the big declines today coming from exxon-mobil, chevrontexaco, conocophillips and schlumberger leading the way down. exxon-mobil, about a week ago, was trading at a record high. we saw a similar move in oil services stocks for the same reasons, that index with its biggest decline in about a month. it was also a great performer last year, up just about 28%. some of the big declines within that group led by transocean, also nabors, one of the other big decliners within that group. also today, we saw a similar phenomenon with steel stocks, down almost 4%. again, this was the big performer in 2004, in a rotation out of this particular group. in 2004, up 55%. we have had concern creeping into the market about exports out of china potentially putting pressure on steel prices because there will be too much supply coming to market . some of the great performers of 2004, allegheny technologies leading the stocks in terms of percentage declines. also in today’s session, limiting some of the declines on the dow, although not doing much by day’s end, were shares of wal-mart. that company saying december same-store sales rose 3%, at the high end of their previous forecast. this is their biggest monthly gain since july with a currently of after-christmas shoppers. i’m julie hyman, bloomberg news, at the new york stock exchange.
>> coming up, the dollar rises against the euro. we’ll ask a senior currency strategist with the bank of new york whether he thinks gains are sustainable.
在线播报
Listen Market briefing --- Cathy (slow)
Asia Pacific markets --- David (slow)
welcome to “live” from hong kong, i’m catherine yang. coming up in the next hour, we’ll wrap up the day’s market action in new york, including a live report on crude oil’s drop. oil drops 3% in the first trading day of the year. higher-than-expected temperatures in the eastern% -united states cut demand for heating oil. the northeast accounts for 80% of the country’s residential heating oil consumption. the national weather service predicts warmer temperatures starting january 8 to 12. we’ll have more on will oil markets in a live report from new york in 10 minutes. the dollar jumped from a record low versus the euro back into the 1.34 range. and you’re looking the live market close on your screen now. the euro worth 1.3466 to the dollar, the yen, 102.79. a report indicating u.s. manufacturing grew at a quicker-than-expected rate helped lift the dollar. the i.s.m. index rose to a four-month high, the second straight month of gains. exporters boosted the index. on wall street, u.s. stocks fall on the first day of trade. investors sold some of last year’s best performers after disappointing data on employment and construction spending. all three benchmark index his reached three-year highs last week. the i.s.m. employment index had its weakest reading in a year, falling to 52.7 in december. the labor department’s monthly jobs report is released january 7. energy shares fell in line with the fall in oil prices. technology shares also fell after sun microsystems was downgraded to underperform from market perform by an analyst at sanford c. bernstien. the rally in the 10-year note stalls after the i.s.m. manufacturing index rose in december. continued growth in manufacturing may prompt the fed to keep increasing rates, lowering the appeal of government debt. asian stocks fall in u.s. trade. chinese oil companies including petrochina and cnooc declined. the bank of new york’s indexes that track asian a.d.r.’s fell and nikkei futures point to a lower start for japanese stocks. the tokyo stock exchange opens for the first time this year, beginning with a ceremonial hand-clapping event which we will bring you to live. financial markets in asian land china, australia and thailand also release business. thailand releases december consumer priss this afternoon in bangkok and economists we surveyed expect the inflation rate in thailand held at a five-month low of 3%. an index measuring australian manufacturing activity probably rose last month. those figures are due in about 20 minutes. david tweed joins us from sydney with more on how markets may open in the region this morning. good morning, david. let’s start with australia, first. what are you watching?
>> in australia, we’re looking at the three related factors which will probably have an impact throughout the region. we had the drop in crude futures as we see there are warmer-than-usual weather in the united states, so crude futures down 3.1%. in australia, we’d expect to see oil stocks declining in line with those futures, looking for woodside petroleum and b.h.p. that said, u.s. manufacturing in december did grow, another story we’re reporting today. one of the reasons why is that some of the economists we’ve been speaking to say that the decline in crude prices from the record highs reached last year is giving manufacturers and consumers some confidence and so we’re seeing that manufacturing is in fact responding to that. and at the same time, we see copper prices up 2.1% in new york, trying at a 15-year high, that is, of course, good for mining companies in australia, where, of course, extremely dependent on commodity exports. we might see rio tinto, stocks like that, trading higher in australia going into the open. that said, i might mention to you that b.h.p. billiton’s american depository receipts were trading at the end of the close in new york around about 15 cents lower than their close when last traded here in australia. as for the futures here, we don’t have trade in the futures so we don’t have an indication by looking at those.
>> what about for westfields. how are those shares reacting to last week’s refinancing?
>> i thought a surprise that story, given that many were away. we had a $4 billion debt refinances, a loan, the biggest syndicated loan in australia with 34 banks participating. they were oversubscribed, they got $4 billion, showing the confidence that banks have in what westfield is doing. last year it merged three business units into one so could be able to go out and finance its development at a lower interest rate. the shares rose 2% in the two days after the financing was announced and dropped 1.2% on friday. so it will be interesting to see how they react on the first day of trading here in australia. cathy?
>> and finally, how have national foods’ shares done since the takeover offer by san miguel.
>> it broke last week, san miguel, the philippines’ brewer, said it would make an offer for the stock at $6. there is a rival offer from a new zealand dairy cooperative at $5.45. we’ll have to see what fonterra, the new zealand company, actually does. it’s a holiday in new zealand today but we could see something happening as the week progresses. back to you.
>> thank you, david. and in news outside the business world, the global relief efforts to help those hit the hardest by asian tsunami disaster tops world news. ron madison has the latest on that story and more from world news in tokyo.
>> u.s. president george w. bush has enlisted the help of two former presidents to help out with the tsunami efforts. former president george bush and bill clinton will lead the campaign to raise funds from the private sector.
>> to draw even greater amounts of private donations, i have asked two of america’s most distinguished private citizens to head a nationwide charitiable fund-raising efforts. they bring tremendous leadership experience to that role and they bring good hearts.
>> meantime, aid is reaching asian coastal areas now. ships, planes and helicopters carrying food, clothing, clean water and medicine have converged on jaesh and -- indonesia and other countries. more than 150,000 are said to be dead across the region. indonesia is the hardest hit. rescue efforts continue in sri lanka where some 30,000 have lost their lives. u.s. secretary of stateand jeb bush will be among those leaders attending a summit in jakarta in february. iraqi insurgents launched car bomb attacks throughout the country. the press reports iraqi officials as saying four people died in the suicide blast near the baghdad headquarters of prime minister iyad allawi’s party. and a car bomb attack north of baghdad killed 18 iraqi national guardsmen and one civilian. the press reports the u.s. military as saying the soldiers died when a car bomb was detonated near the bus they were traveling in. that is the latest on world news.
>> thank you, ron. after the break, we’ll learn what analysts are saying about the outlook for oil prices in a live report from new york. this is “bloomberg live.”
