Commodities May Still Pack a Punch Demand Could Keep Prices On the Rise, but Concerns Over Interest Rates Loom
A number of investors -- and some analysts -- said they believe the four-year, Asia-led commodity boom is finally running out of gas.
Don't bet on a market rout, though. There are lots of reasons why commodity prices should stay high. They might even climb again, especially if new geopolitical dramas emerge to add jitters to the market.
Demand for raw materials remains intense, and continues to rise in many parts of the world, especially China. At the same time, many oil and mining companies are struggling to develop new projects. It could be awhile before new supplies of commodities begin to flow and prices return to anything close to their depressed levels of a few years ago.
Of course, many analysts remain convinced prices for oil, copper and other raw materials vital to the world economy are headed lower.
Stephen Roach, the chief economist at Morgan Stanley, told clients in a note last month that energy and industrial commodities "may well have seen their peak for this cycle." Nomura International equities strategist Sean Darby has recommended investors reduce exposure to commodity-related stocks because of potential weakness in raw-material prices.
Bears cite a number of arguments. One is that higher interest rates in the U.S. and elsewhere are finally starting to take a bite out of growth in some commodity-consuming nations. This is especially true in the U.S., where a cooling housing market is expected to weaken consumer spending and slow construction activity. In turn, that should mean less demand for copper, energy and other materials.
On the supply side of the ledger, resources companies have ramped up spending on exploration and development projects, suggesting new supply may soon be on the way. Also, some of the geopolitical tensions that triggered fears of supply disruptions and drove up the price of oil -- including worries over nuclear activity in Iran -- have eased in recent months.
Yesterday, crude oil for November delivery rose 73 cents, or 1.2%, to $59.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- but down 23% from its peak on July 14. Similarly, copper prices are down more than 10% since a peak in early May, while aluminum prices are down about 20% in that period.
A number of experts have said they believe it is worth pausing to reconsider the market's fundamentals -- and why they remain strong.
Although the U.S. economy does appear to be slowing, growth is still healthy, and demand for raw materials elsewhere remains strong. This is particularly true in China, where economic growth has actually accelerated since last year.
BCA Research, a Montreal investment-research company, said copper consumption is on track to rise about 5% in 2006 after shrinking 0.3% in 2005. It warned clients this week that mining stocks are "at risk" in the short term, but said longer-term demand for many commodities remains "very bullish" with "significant supply bottlenecks" still in place.
Tight supply persists for a number of raw materials, including nickel and zinc. Although it is true many new oil and mining projects are being developed, many are being held back by strikes, tight environmental regulations and continued shortages of labor and equipment.
None of this means commodity prices can't decline further. It does suggest, though, that a large, long-term swoon -- or a return to the depressed commodity prices of a few years ago -- is unlikely.
"It's still probably a bit premature" to call the end of the commodity cycle, said Jeffrey Christian of New York commodities-research company CPM Group. He said he wouldn't be surprised if some commodities, including platinum and possibly oil, rise again, especially if new supply disruptions emerge.
"The problems that scared investors into commodities over the last few years by and large have not been resolved and probably will not be resolved in the next few months, so markets are still vulnerable to a spasm" in prices, he said.
Analysts at Numis Securities in London also question the bear-market thesis, citing continued raw-material demand, persistent supply challenges, and rising mining costs. They also suggest that fears of a big U.S. slowdown may be overdone.
Mining stocks could "rally" as "confidence returns," Numis said in a note to clients last week.
商品价格恐难下跌
许多投资者，还有一些分析师都认为，4年来亚洲地区带动的商品价格暴涨的局面已行将结束。
不过，别寄希望于市场将会大幅下跌。商品价格仍将维持在高位有许多原因。甚至，商品价格还有可能再度攀升，尤其是在出现新的地缘政治风波导致市场恐慌的情况下。
对原材料的需求依然旺盛，在中国等世界许多地区还在继续增长。与此同时，许多石油和矿业公司开发新项目尚需时日。因此，新的商品供应开始进入市场、价格回归到接近几年前的低迷水平还要有一段时间。当然，许多分析师相信，石油和铜等对全球经济至关重要的商品价格还会继续走低。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席经济学家史蒂芬?罗奇(Stephen Roach)在上个月给客户的研究报告中表示，能源和工业商品可能已经达到这轮周期的顶部。野村国际(Nomura International)股票策略师西恩?达比(Sean Darby)建议投资者减持同商品有关的股票，因为原材料价格有可能走弱。
看跌商品市场的人士列出了众多理由。其中之一是美国和其他国家上调利率最终将会导致部分商品消费国的增长率下滑。美国显然就是这种情况，房屋市场的降温预计将会削弱消费者支出，减缓建筑活动。这也就意味着对铜、能源和其他材料需求的下降。
在供应方面，资源类公司增加项目的勘探开发投资，表明新供应很快就能流入市场。而且，可能造成供应中断并推高油价的部分地缘政治紧张局势──如伊朗核危机──这几个月来已有所缓解。
周二，纽约商交所十一月原油期货合约下跌2.35美元，至每桶58.68美元，较7月14日的高点下跌了24%。同样，铜价已较5月初的高点下跌了10%以上，同期铝价则下跌了约20%。
许多专家认为，应该静下心来重新思考市场的基本面，以及仍能保持强势的原因。
尽管美国经济确实出现了放缓的迹象，但增长率依然保持在正常水平。世界各地对原材料的需求也依然强劲，中国的原材料需求格外旺盛，中国经济自去年以来实际上是在加速增长。
加拿大投资研究机构BCA Research最近表示，在2005年全球铜消费量减少0.3%后，2006年有望增长5%左右。该公司本周警告客户，矿业类股短期存在风险，但对许多商品的中长期需求仍非常强劲，而且依然存在明显的供应瓶颈。
的确，包括镍和锌在内的许多原材料的供应还很紧张。尽管许多新的石油和采矿项目正在建设，但也有许多因为罢工、严格的环保监管和劳动力及设备的短缺而停工。
这并不意味着商品价格不会进一步下跌。但的确说明长期大幅下跌，甚至跌至几年前的低迷水平的可能性不大。
纽约商品研究机构CPM Group的杰弗里?克里斯蒂安(Jeffrey Christian)说，现在断言此轮商品周期已经结束可能为时尚早。他表示，如果铂，甚至石油等部分商品再度上涨，他不会感到惊讶，特别是在出现新的供应中断可能──如伊朗局势再度紧张──的情况下。
他称，前几年促使投资者进入商品市场的问题目前仍未得到彻底解决，恐怕在今后几个月里也难以得到解决，因此商品价格还有冲高的可能。
伦敦Numis Securities的分析师也对看跌商品市场的论点表示怀疑。他们表示，原材料需求依然强劲，供应压力并未缓解，采矿成本也在上升。他们还认为，对美国经济大幅放缓的担忧可能有些夸大了。
Numis在上周致客户的报告中称，随着信心的恢复，矿业类股有望出现反弹。
从长期来看，商品价格可能会从目前的价位回落，回归到历史平均水平附近。但尚不清楚何时会出现这种情况。
投资者可以按如下方法来对冲其中存在的风险：持有一些商品类公司的头寸，同时也增持一些将从原材料价格下跌中获益的股票。这包括许多航空公司和其它运输类企业。
荷兰银行(ABN AMRO Bank)的分析师在最近的报告列出了不少商品价格继续下跌的赢家和输家。该公司称，总的来说，亚洲国家和亚洲股票的表现将好过拉丁美洲等其他新兴市场。这是因为亚洲国家是主要的商品净进口国，而许多拉美国家则是主要的生产国，这意味着如原材料价格下跌，它们蒙受的损失更大。
荷兰银行指出，如果价格持续下跌，受到负面影响的将包括印度的Oil & Natural Gas、中国的宝山钢铁股份有限公司(Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.)和泰国煤炭企业Banpu。
但荷兰银行表示，许多公司将从中受益，其中包括中国国际航空股份有限公司(Air China Ltd., 简称：中国国航)、印度Jet Airways和马来西亚Air Asia。如果人们降低了燃料支出，他们可能会购买更多的其它商品，因而消费品公司也可能获益。荷兰银行称，可能的赢家包括利丰有限公司(Li & Fung Ltd., 简称：利丰)和印度尼西亚汽车组装及分销商阿斯特拉国际企业集团(Astra International)。
Patrick Barta
