South Korea Stocks Fall on Test Claim; China Is Unfazed
SHANGHAI, China -- Chinese stocks powered to a five-year high in apparent anticipation of this month's mega-IPO by Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., showing how Chinese investors continue to cheer regulators' efforts to bring new share issues to the market.
In heavy trading following the weeklong National Day holiday period, the Shanghai Composite Index ended 1.9% higher at 1785.39 on Monday, the highest point since September 2001. Analysts took banking shares' leading role in the rise as a sign that it was driven by reports that ICBC intends to price this month's pathbreaking initial public offering high enough to possibly make it the world's biggest IPO ever.
North Korea's nuclear test, reported at midmorning local time, appeared to have little effect on stocks in China, which often trade out of step with markets elsewhere because of the small amount of foreign investment.
Chinese bank IPOs during the past year have done well, suggesting to investors the sector is still rising in value. "The market will keep climbing ahead of ICBC's listing, and the Shanghai Composite Index may test 1800 in coming weeks," said Simon Wang, strategist at Xiangcai Securities.
ICBC's Oct. 27 IPO is set to become the first conducted simultaneously on a mainland Chinese market, Shanghai, and outside the mainland, namely Hong Kong. As much as $21.94 billion could be raised in the offering, according to people involved in the transaction, beating out the $18.4 billion that NTT Mobile Communications Network Inc. raised in 1998, identified by market-data provider Dealogic Inc. as the world's biggest IPO to date.
So far in 2006, China's benchmark index is up 54%, a powerful endorsement of a market restructuring meant to better align the interests of government owners with those of minority shareholders. The simultaneous dual listing of ICBC, for example, is possible partly because Chinese regulators have adjusted their trading rules to reflect those of the more internationalized market of Hong Kong.
Still, the market's return to 2001 levels is also a reminder that that year marked the start of a four-year descent that ultimately wiped out nearly half the market's value. Even today, the Shanghai Composite Index remains 20% below its June 2001 peak of 2237.49.
Although big IPOs can hurt markets because they tend to attract money that was invested in already-listed stocks, analysts say ICBC's offering could have a positive effect. It would be the latest in a series of blue-chip stocks to have hit the market in recent months, making it fundamentally more solid.
Also, the bulk of the funds for the ICBC listing are expected to be raised in Hong Kong, noted Vincent Chan, head of China research at Credit Suisse, limiting the extent to which the listing will divert money away from mainland China.
And there is enough cash in China's markets and banking system to absorb an IPO of ICBC's size. In a sign of how much liquidity there is, Beijing said yesterday that Mr. Chan's firm, Credit Suisse, was permitted to buy a further $200 million of Chinese equities and bonds under the country's qualified foreign institutional investor program.
Global investors' demand for IPOs of China's banks bodes well for China-listed stocks in general. "Chinese investors look at what foreign investors are doing for clues," Mr. Chan said.
Bank IPOs have had a good track record. Shares of China Merchants Bank Co. are up 32% in the month since its $2.66 billion IPO in Hong Kong, even after a 2.9% drop yesterday, as Hong Kong's market did respond to North Korea's reported nuclear test.
The Shanghai market's largest stock, Bank of China Ltd., slightly outperformed the overall market yesterday with a 2.1% rise to 3.40 yuan (43 U.S. cents).
Smaller banks did especially well on the ICBC news. China Minsheng Banking Co. and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. each ended with gains that hit the 10% daily ceiling, rising to 5.93 yuan and 11.68 yuan, respectively. Shenzhen Development Bank Co. added 6.5% to 8.69 yuan.
中国股市劲升，银行类股领涨
中国股市在本月中国工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.)超大型首次公开募股(IPO)登场前强劲上扬，并创下5年高点，这表明中国投资者对监管部门批准新股发行继续持热烈欢迎态度。
十一长假结束后，在庞大交易量的带动下，上证综合指数周一大涨1.9%，收于1785.39点，创下2001年9月以来的新高。分析师们对银行类股领涨大盘的看法是，这似乎是受了有报导称工商银行此次上市有望成为全球最大规模IPO活动的推动。
有关北朝鲜进行核试验的报导似乎并未对中国股市产生影响，由于外国投资者的投资金额较少，中国股市的走势通常并不与其他市场同步。
过去一年中，中国几家银行的IPO均取得了骄人成绩，在投资者看来，银行类股似乎仍有上升空间。“市场在工商银行上市前将继续走高，上证综合指数有望在几周内上探1800点，”湘财证券(Xiangcai Securities)的策略师王骁敏(Simon Wang)表示。
工商银行定于10月27日登场的IPO将成为首宗在大陆和海外市场同步进行的此类交易。据知情人士称，本次募股的融资额有望达到219.4亿美元，超过NTT移动通讯(NTT Mobile Communication Network Inc.) 1998年184亿美元的IPO，后者被市场数据供应商Dealogic Inc.认定是目前为止全球规模最大的IPO。
上证综合指数今年迄今为止的涨幅达到54%，这充分显示了中国股市对股权分置改革的认可。工商银行在两地同步上市很可能是因为中国监管部门已经调整了交易规则，使之向更加国际化的香港市场靠拢。
当然，市场重返2001年高点也不禁让人们想起，当时紧接着就出现了连续4年的熊市，市场价值缩水近半。即便在今天，上证综合指数较2001年6月时2237.49点的高点仍然有20%的距离。
大型IPO通常可能给市场带来压力，因为它们将吸走投资者投在现有股票上的大量资金，不过分析师表示，工商银行的上市将产生正面影响。它将成为近几个月来最新上市的一只蓝筹股，并且基本面更为强劲。
另外，瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)中国研究部门主管陈昌华(Vincent Chan)表示，上市融资的大部分将在香港市场筹集，这就减轻了对大陆资金的分流压力。
而且中国市场及银行体系有足够的资金吸收工商银行的IPO。政府周一表示，已批准将瑞士信贷的合格境外机构投资者(QFII)投资额度增加2亿美元。
全球投资者对中国银行类股IPO的兴趣也为中国股市的其他股票带来了福音。陈昌华表示，中国投资者正在密切关注外国投资者的动向，从中寻找投资线索。
银行类股的IPO一向表现良好。以招商银行(China Merchants Bank Co. Ltd.)为例，即便在周一下跌2.9%后，该股在香港上市后仍然上涨了32%。香港股市周一因朝鲜进行核试验而走低。
上海市场市值最大的股票中国银行(Bank of China Ltd.)周一的表现略强于大盘，收盘涨2.1%，至人民币3.40元（0.43美元）。
小型银行类股在工行IPO消息的带动下表现尤其抢眼。民生银行(China Minsheng Banking Corp. Ltd.)和浦发银行(Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. Ltd.)涨停，分别以5.93元和11.68元报收。深发展A(Shenzhen Development Bank Co. Ltd.)涨6.5%，至8.69元。
James T. Areddy
