泰国政变有望提振股市

Thai Revolt May Boost Shares Coup Reduces Political Uncertainty, But Concern Remains

While Thailand's benchmark stock index remains below its last close before the Sept. 19 coup, some foreign analysts and investors remain upbeat that the bloodless revolt can prove salutary to Thai shares.

Yesterday, the SET index rose 0.6%. A factor behind the gain was the market's welcome to Tuesday's announcement by the military of an economic advisory team led by central-bank Gov. Pridiyathorn Devakula.

Thailand's coup points up an observation that, in Asia, constitutional democracy doesn't necessarily correlate with stock-market performance. Even as military leaders ousted the country's democratically elected prime minister, some analysts and investors quickly took the view that the coup could give a longer-term push to the Thai stock market -- which is down nearly 3% this year and in 2005 lagged behind other Asian exchanges.

Michael Kurtz, economic and equity strategist for Bear Stearns Asia, is in the bulls' camp. He says the coup, while undemocratic, actually reduces the political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra -- which had slowed local business investment and domestic consumption. In a research report the day after the military takeover, Mr. Kurtz upgraded Thailand to "overweight," arguing that Thai shares are set to rebound.

That's what happened 15 years ago, the last time the country's military leaders deposed an elected prime minister. Mr. Kurtz notes that the 1991 coup caused Thai stocks to tumble 8% the following day. Yet over the next three weeks, the index rallied 20%, as wary investors came to see the overthrow and subsequent selloff as an opportunity to pour money back in. Ten days after taking control, the military named Anand Panyarachun, a highly respected civilian who had been ambassador to the U.S., as interim prime minister.

Mr. Thaksin, a former policeman who amassed a fortune from a telecom and media business before becoming prime minister in 2001, came under severe criticism early this year after his family sold its controlling stake in Shin Corp. to Temasek Holdings, Singapore's state-owned investment company. The sale brought the family $1.9 billion and was structured in a way that it paid no taxes on the proceeds.

Debates over democracy and market performance surface often in Asia, such as in investment comparisons of China and India, the continent's steam-engine economies. While many Westerners applaud India's democratic government, investors routinely suggest that China's authoritarian regime is better able to deliver on financial goals, including reforming its market.

The Thai economy is expected to grow about 4% this year, much more slowly than China's or India's. But Thailand has at times grown strongly, and Mr. Pridiyathorn said yesterday the central bank will raise its forecast for 2007. In July, it forecast growth next year of between 4% and 5.3%.

After trading reopened last Thursday, the SET index fell 1.4%, but foreign investors pushed $197 million into Thai stocks, the most on a single day since early April. Foreigners have remained buyers most days, though yesterday they were net sellers of nearly $26 million in shares, according to the stock exchange. For the buyers, the main sectors include tourism and infrastructure, as well as banking -- as a proxy for overall economic growth.

"We've been a bit cautious this year because of the political situation," says one portfolio manager, whose fund invests in hedge funds. He says his fund is thinking about investing more in Thai shares now that the worst of the country's political turmoil may be over.

While Thailand's military rulers have appointed investigators to look into Mr. Thaksin's conduct while prime minister, investors and analysts think it is unlikely the new government will seek to hamper foreign investors. Even before Mr. Thaksin was ousted, Thai regulators began investigating whether the way the sale of the Shin stake was structured breached Thailand's limits on foreign ownership.

Postcoup, there's plenty of pessimism as well as bullishness about Thailand. Skeptics contend that progress in governance issues at its corporations is too slow. Democracy and the business environment have suffered frequent setbacks, skeptics say, which have stalled moves to privatize industries and hampered company efforts to create long-term value for shareholders.

Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Institutional Bank of Australia, says that even though foreign investors poured cash into stocks just after the coup, the stock market still fell, reflecting greater concern about the situation among Thais. "I don't agree with people who say this is a great buying opportunity for Thailand," Mr. Callow says.

Mr. Callow and other skeptics also say the possibility of instability can't be ruled out. On Tuesday, the coup leader, Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratkalin, hinted that the military may continue to take an active role in the government. Already, the military rulers have said they will continue as advisers to any interim civilian government. And until they name an interim prime minister, extra uncertainty about the transition back to democracy remains.

Teall Edds, a Singapore-based analyst for Stark Investments, a $9.5 billion U.S. hedge fund, says his fund hasn't invested much in Thailand, and the mild market decline following the coup hasn't emboldened the fund to increase its bets.

"If there had been a big selloff, a number of people, including ourselves, would probably have bought big," Mr. Edds says. "As it is, I think the market is going to go sideways and downward."
泰国政变有望提振股市

虽然泰国基准股票指数目前仍低于9月19日政变前的水平，但一些海外分析师和投资者相信，这场不流血政变将最终提振泰国股市。

泰国证交所指数周三上涨0.6%。军方宣布成立以央行行长蒂耶通(Pridiyathorn Devakula)为首的经济顾问团，这鼓舞了市场人气。

泰国政变凸现出在亚洲某些国家，立宪民主与股市表现并无直接联系的特点。虽然泰国军方领导人驱逐了由民主选举产生的总理，一些分析师和投资者却很快得出结论，本次政变对泰国股市的长期走势可能利好。泰国证交所指数今年迄今为止下跌近3%，2005年的表现也落后于亚洲其他证交所。

贝尔斯登亚洲(Bear Stearns Asia)经济及股票策略师迈克尔?库尔兹(Michael Kurtz)站在了看涨阵营中。他说，虽然政变违背了民主，但事实上却缓解了围绕总理他信(Thaksin Shinawatra)产生的政治不安因素，这种不安因素已导致本国经济投资放缓，消费支出减少。库尔兹在军方上台的第二天发表报告将泰国股票评级上调至增持，并称泰国股市将很快反弹。

这与15年前军方领导人驱逐民选总理后的情形如出一辙。库尔兹指出，1991年的军方政变导致泰国证交所指数次日下挫8%。但该指数在接下来的3周内反弹了20%，机敏的投资者将政变以及随后引发的抛售当成了买入良机。军方在上台10天后任命了深受爱戴的文官阿南(Anand Panyarachun)担任过渡政府总理。

警察出身的他信在2001年担任总理前从电信和媒体业务中聚敛了大量财富，今年年初，他信家族通过将所持电信企业Shin Corp.的控股权出售给新加坡国有投资公司淡马锡(Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd.)收获了19亿美元，并采取了一种让他信家族可以逃避交税的交易模式，这一时间引起了社会的广泛谴责。

近来亚洲掀起了一阵阵有关民主与市场表现的讨论，比如人们常常拿印度和中国的投资作对比。虽然很多西方人士对印度的民主政府拍手称道，但投资者却表示，中国的专制制度更有利于经济目标的实现，包括对金融市场的改革。

泰国经济今年预计将增长4%，远低于中国和印度的增幅。不过泰国经济也不时有过强劲表现，蒂耶通周三表示，央行将上调2007年经济增长预期。7月份，泰国央行预计明年经济增长率将在4%-5.3%之间。

泰国证交所上周四恢复交易后基准指数一度下挫1.4%，不过海外投资者斥资1.97亿美元涌入市场，创下了4月初以来的单日最高成交量。这些天来海外投资者基本保持了净买家状态，不过据证交所数据显示，本周三他们变成了2,600万美元的净卖家。买家青睐的行业主要包括旅游业和基础设施行业，除此之外银行类股作为整体经济增长的晴雨表也受到了投资者的青睐。

一位从事对冲基金业务的基金经理说，“今年，考虑到政治局势不稳，我们一直很小心。”不过既然最糟糕的政治风波或许已经结束，他表示，他的基金正在考虑对泰国股市加大投资。

虽然泰国军方领导人指定了调查小组对他信就任总理期间的行为展开调查，但投资者和分析师称，新政府不太可能阻碍外国投资者的投资。而且在他信被驱逐前，泰国监管部门已经开始调查对Shin的股权出售模式是否违背了泰国对外国投资者所有权的限制。

不过政变结束后人们对泰国的看法喜忧参半。悲观人士称，公司监管方面的改革进展太慢。民主和经济环境不断遭遇挫折，阻碍了某些行业的私有化进程，并导致公司为股东创造长期价值的努力受挫。

Westpac Institutional Bank of Australia高级外汇策略师肖恩?凯洛(Sean Callow)称，即便外国投资者在泰国政变后向股市倾注了大量资金，该市场仍然可能下挫，泰国人对局势的担忧可能加重。凯洛说，“对于现在是买入良机的说法，我不敢苟同。”

凯洛以及其他悲观人士还表示，目前并不能排除局势动荡的可能性。周二，政变领导人、陆军总司令颂提(Sondhi Boonyaratkalin)暗示军方可能将继续积极参与政府事务。军方领导人已经表示，他们将继续担任过渡期文官政府的顾问。在他们任命过渡总理前，泰国能否恢复到民主状态仍然存在着很大的不确定性。

管理着95亿美元资产的美国对冲基金Stark Investments驻新加坡分析师蒂尔?埃迪斯(Teall Edds)称，该基金并未在泰国倾注太多投资，政变后市场的温和下挫也未能吸引该基金增加赌注。

“如果当时有大量卖盘出现，那么很多人，包括我们自己，可能会大量买进，”埃迪斯说。“不过根据现在的情形，我认为市场将维持振荡走势，并且可能走低。”

Laura Santini

Thailand's Mega-Airport Gets Off the Ground Despite Coup and Griping
By Carriers, Suvarnabhumi
Is Set to Open Tomorrow

BANGKOK, Thailand -- After decades of planning and years of delays, Thailand's gleaming new $4 billion international airport is finally set to open tomorrow, in spite of last week's military coup and the complaints of some airlines that the facility still isn't up to scratch.

Suvarnabhumi Airport is the world's newest mega-airport, a high-stakes bid to make Bangkok an elite hub for global air travel and to boost the Thai economy in the face of stiff opposition from Asian rivals.

Built on a marsh known as Cobra Swamp, 25 kilometers east of the capital, Bangkok, Suvarnabhumi (pronounced "Su-Wana-Poom") boasts the world's biggest passenger terminal under a single roof and the tallest control tower. Its footprint is six times as large as congested Don Muang Airport, the country's current international gateway, which will close to all but charter and possibly military flights.


Thailand's new Suvarnabhumi Airport, near Bangkok, is preparing to open tomorrow, after years of delays.
Almost 39 million passengers took off and landed at Don Muang last year, making Bangkok the fourth-busiest passenger hub in Asia. But Suvarnabhumi could shatter these parameters, with plans for expansion that could handle as many as 100 million visitors a year, roughly the same number as at John F. Kennedy International, La Guardia and Newark airports combined.

Although Suvarnabhumi began handling some flights for flag carrier Thai Airways International and low-cost airline Jetstar Airways on Sept. 15, it wasn't to start normal operations until a Lufthansa flight from Frankfurt and Mumbai touched down on one of its two runways at 3 a.m. today.

Suvarnabhumi, which means "The Golden Land," is the latest in a series of mega-airports to have opened in Asia. Indeed, the desire to outshine the competition was a key concern of the airport's planners in the 1990s. Sprawling airports have opened in recent years in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Incheon, South Korea and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, as each city has sought to boost its profile and competitive edge as an aviation hub.

Airports like Suvarnabhumi, with its vaulting ceilings of metal latticework and tent-like fabric, entail enormous costs that have taken a toll on airlines, which have paid increased user fees to help finance them. Given today's hypercompetitive market, many airlines are loath to absorb the financial hit. "They're not interested in Taj Mahals. They're interested in functioning airports," says consultant Peter Harbison of the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation in Sydney.

Some airlines worry that Suvarnabhumi's history of construction problems and alleged corruption portends a troubled debut. First envisioned in 1960, the airport was to have opened originally in 2000. Four years later, as delays mounted, then-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and several cabinet ministers spent a night camping out at the construction site to try to embarrass contractors into working faster.


In July, the U.N.-affiliated International Civil Aviation Organization identified scores of concerns at the airport, including inadequate lights and markings, according to a report leaked to Thai news media. Airports of Thailand PCL, the Bangkok-listed operator of Suvarnabhumi, didn't dispute the findings and has rectified many of the shortcomings, says a person knowledgeable about the matter.

Still, a rapid train line connecting the airport to central Bangkok won't be ready until 2008, forcing passengers and employees on to the surrounding area's already crowded roads.

"I think there are going to be some tremendous transitional problems," says Jim Eckes of Indoswiss Aviation, a Hong Kong consultancy.

Meanwhile, Thailand's auditor-general, Jaruvan Maintaka, said last week that she was completing a report on alleged wrongdoing by government officials in the 2005 purchase of high-tech bomb scanners for Suvarnabhumi.

A wholesale changeover of flights from one airport to another is never easy, but many of the 70-plus airlines involved in this transfer complain that Thai authorities have pushed them to meet an unrealistic deadline. Their chief concern is the computerized baggage handling system, which Brian Sinclair-Thompson, head of the Board of Airline Representatives in Thailand, describes as "woefully inadequate."

Senior executives at Airports of Thailand declined to comment in detail for this article, in the wake of last week's coup in which a military junta replaced Mr. Thaksin. However, a spokeswoman for Airports of Thailand said the company was confident that the baggage handling system would function well. About 800 Thai soldiers will be standing by to carry passengers' suitcases by hand, just in case.

"That is our emergency plan," says Suwat Wanisubut, a senior adviser at the National Economic and Social Development Board.

When Hong Kong opened an international airport at Chek Lap Kok in 1998, the debut was marred by severe delays in cargo processing; today, all that is forgotten, and Chek Lap Kok is seen as a resounding success. One thing in Suvarnabhumi's favor is that it has turned for technical advice to Germany's Munich Airport, which pulled off an almost flawless changeover in 1992.

However, some airlines are still negotiating leases for office space at Suvarnabhumi, and others lack room for passenger lounges and cargo and maintenance operations.

Late last week, workers dozed on sheets of cardboard on the floor of an empty concrete shell designated as a future lounge for Qantas Airways. Much of the airport was a dusty construction site. Carpenters were installing shelves in retail shops on the departure floor, and the cluttered concourse echoed with the grating of power tools.

Thai Airways, which will make its new home at Suvarnabhumi, may have had the toughest transition of any carrier leaving Don Muang. It had to move its entire business, including catering and ground-handling operations, and drive 1,200 vehicles to the new airport in the wee hours of opening day, says Chokchai Panyayong, vice president of Thai Airways' project development department.

Certainly Suvarnabhumi's success will be crucial to Thailand's strategy of grabbing a bigger share of the passenger and air-cargo business in Asia. Not only does the Thai economy depend heavily on international tourism, but Bangkok needs a larger, more modern airport to attract passengers who stop over and change planes while journeying between Asia and cities in Europe and North America.

As a result of the move to Suvarnabhumi, Mr. Chokchai of Thai Airways expects the carrier's passenger volumes to increase 10% annually, compared with the 7% average annual growth rate it has clocked over the past decade.

But some analysts argue that Suvarnabhumi's initial capacity for 45 million passengers a year may already be too tight.

"Because it's taken so long in the birth process, it's already undercapacity," says Mr. Harbison, the Sydney consultant. "It's going to immediately be overcrowded."
泰国新机场即将亮相

泰国耗资40亿美元的新机场在经过几十年的周密计划、近几年又一拖再拖后终于投入使用。尽管上周泰国发生军事政变，并且仍有航空公司抱怨称机场设施并未达到标准，但该机场最终决定于9月28日正式启用。

作为全球最新问世的超大型机场，素汪那普国际机场(Suvarnabhumi Airport)的启用凸显出泰国政府将曼谷打造为国际航空港，并藉此提振泰国经济的决心。泰国经济正面临来自亚洲各国的激烈竞争。

素汪那普机场建于曼谷以东25公里名为Cobra Swamp的沼泽地带，设有全球最大的候机楼和最高的机场控制塔。该机场占地面积相当于曼谷廊曼机场(Don Muang Airport)的6倍。作为泰国目前的国际航空中转站，廊曼机场已经拥挤不堪。该机场将很快对公众关闭，只供包机和军用飞机专用。

廊曼机场去年的客运中转人数达到3,900万，使得曼谷成为亚洲的第四大客运中转站。不过与素汪那普机场的客流目标相比这一数字不足挂齿。素汪那普机场预计每年将接待旅客1亿人，大概相当于美国肯尼迪国际机场、La Guardia机场和纽瓦克机场的客流总和。

素汪那普机场于9月15日开始接待泰国国际航空公司(Thai Airways International PLC)和低成本航空公司Jetstar Airways的部分航班，不过直到汉沙航空公司(Lufthansa)来自法兰克福的一架飞机于本周三凌晨3点落地时，该机场才算启动正常运营。

素汪那普在泰语中意为“黄金土地”，该机场是亚洲陆续启用的一系列超大机场中的最新一个。事实上，泰国方面在九十年代规划该机场时就定下了赶超其他机场的目标。近些年来，为提高城市知名度和作为航空中转站的竞争优势，香港、上海、仁川和吉隆坡都在争先恐后地兴建机场。

像素汪那普机场这样拥有巨大拱顶的恢弘建筑通常耗资巨大，而一部分费用将通过提高航空公司的使用费转嫁给航空公司。在当今这样竞争激烈的市场，很多航空公司并不情愿承担这笔费用。“他们对泰姬陵不感兴趣。他们看重的是机场的功能，”Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation驻悉尼的顾问彼得?哈宾逊(Peter Harbison)表示。

素汪那普机场曾经建筑问题百出，令很多航空公司深感担忧，此外，有关机场建设的腐败丑闻也给新机场的启动笼上了阴影。建设素汪那普机场的计划于1960年首次成型，当时计划2000年正式启用。2004年，时任泰国总理的他信?秦那越(Thaksin Shinawatra)曾与几位内阁部长在机场工地过夜，以此敦促机场工程的建筑承包商们加快工程进度。

据泰国媒体透露，今年7月，联合国下属的国际民航组织(International Civil Aviation Organization)曾指出素汪那普机场存在若干问题，包括灯光黯淡和标志不够醒目等。据知情人士称，经营该机场的Airports of Thailand对上述问题未予否认，之后对很多不足之处进行了整改。

不过，连接机场和曼谷市中心的高速铁路要到2008年方能通车，这意味着机场周边本已不堪重负的道路将会因旅客和机场员工的大批涌来而更加拥挤不堪。

香港咨询公司Indoswiss Aviation的吉姆?埃克斯(Jim Eckes)说，“我认为这将引发严重的交通问题。”

此外，泰国审计总长乍鲁万?迈达加(Jaruvan Maintaka)上周表示，一些政府官员被指控在2005年采购高科技炸弹扫描仪的过程中存在不当行为，她马上就要完成有关这一问题的报告。

将各航班从一个机场转至另一个机场从来就不容易，本次机场启动所涉及到的70多家航空公司更抱怨称，泰国政府给他们设定了一个很不现实的期限。他们最不放心的是电脑化行李处理系统，泰国航空公司代表协会(Board of Airline Representatives)的负责人Brian Sinclair-Thompson说，这一系统简直“拥挤不堪”。

Airports of Thailand的高级管理人士拒绝就本文内容发表评论，此前他信已经在上周的军事政变中下台。不过，Airports of Thailand的一位发言人表示，公司相信行李处理系统将正常运转。届时将有800名泰国士兵站在旅客身边，帮助其提取行李，以防出现混乱。

香港国际机场1998年首次启动时曾经出现行李延误的情况；但如今这一切早已被人们抛在脑后，在人们眼中，香港国际机场一直是完美的成功典范。而更让素汪那普机场感到胸有成竹的是，该机场已经就技术问题请教了德国的慕尼黑机场，后者于1992年顺利交接，未发生任何意外情况。

不过，一些航空公司仍在就租赁素汪那普机场办公空间问题与机场进行交涉，另外还有很多航空公司因缺少旅客休息室、缺少行李处理及维护空间而满腹牢骚。

上周末，机场空旷的大厅里还可以看到有工人铺上纸板睡觉，这个位置已被分配给快达航空(Qantas Airways Ltd)用作旅客休息室。机场内仍有尘土飞扬的建筑工地。木匠们正在安装离港区零售店的货架，嘈杂的人群与刺耳的电动工具声此起彼伏。

在从曼谷廊曼机场迁往素汪那普机场的诸多航空公司中，泰国国际航空公司(Thai Airways International)可能麻烦最大。泰国国际航空项目开发部副总裁Chokchai Panyayong表示，公司必须把从食品供给到地面控制的一整套业务搬迁过来，新机场启动当天，他们要在一大早就派出1,200辆汽车运送必要物资。

当然，素汪那普机场的成功对泰国吸引更多客运及货运业务的战略意义重大。泰国经济一直严重依赖海外游客，而且曼谷也需要一个更大、更加现代化的机场来吸引往返于亚洲和欧美的旅客在此驻足。

泰国国际航空的Chokchai预计，迁到素汪那普机场后，该公司每年的客运量将增长10%，而过去10年间的年均增幅为7%。

不过一些分析师认为，素汪那普机场启用之初每年4,500万人次的旅客接待能力已经不能满足需要了。

“由于准备时间很长，机场启用时实际需求已经超过设计能力，”悉尼的顾问哈宾逊说。“它很快就将拥挤不堪。”

Bruce Stanley