Paulson Seeks to Build on Ties During China Visit
To Promote U.S. Objectives,
Treasury Chief Uses Strategy
That Delivered for Goldman
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's first meeting after arriving in China yesterday was with Xi Jinping, the Communist Party secretary for Zhejiang Province.
It wasn't because Mr. Xi is a national political figure, although Mr. Paulson considers him a rising star in a province that is an aggressive exporter to the U.S. It was because when the two met in New York City a few months ago, Mr. Paulson -- then chief executive of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- promised he'd drop by.
At Goldman, Mr. Paulson believed the key to doing business in China was building long-term relationships. At Treasury, he believes the same thing, putting his contacts to work for the U.S. government on an agenda that ranges from protecting American companies' intellectual property to trying to convince Beijing to relax its grip on the exchange value of the yuan. "These things generally take a bit of compromise, generally take patience and generally take listening as well as talking. And in the case of China it takes a process where you're talking to all of the right people," Mr. Paulson said before arriving in the garden city Hangzhou.
"I told you I would come," Mr. Paulson said as Mr. Xi greeted him at a lakeside guesthouse.
Treasury officials have long found Chinese decision-making opaque, as they struggled to figure out which bureaucrats and politicians really influence policy. They hope Mr. Paulson -- who made some 70 trips to China as an investment banker, tourist and environmental activist -- will bring Treasury something close to an insider's view.
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Bank of America's Larry Goodman tells CNBC that Secretary Paulson's upcoming meeting with China will focus on currency exchange issues and a shifting China towards a more consumption-driven economic model.The secretary himself drew up the list of people he wanted to see. Among them was President Hu Jintao, whom Mr. Paulson is slated to meet in Beijing this week -- something of a coup for a cabinet secretary in a protocol-conscious country. He was scheduled to meet, as well, with Finance Minister Jin Renqing and Ma Kai, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, which sets China's energy policy.
Also on his schedule is Beijing Mayor Wang Qishan, who bonded with Mr. Paulson during the 2003 SARS crisis. The previous mayor had been fired for covering up the epidemic, and Mr. Wang took the job, desperate to show Beijing was safe. He asked Mr. Paulson if he would be willing to help out -- by making a public visit to the city. Mr. Paulson immediately got on a plane to China.
Mr. Paulson has a proven record in doing business with China. He helped pull off a coup in 2004 with an innovative plan that enabled Goldman Sachs to get around strict ownership rules and establish control over a full-service Chinese brokerage firm and investment bank. No other foreign investment bank has managed to achieve that.
The argument he used to clinch the deal, according to people familiar with the situation, was that it was in China's best interests because Goldman would help raise standards in a securities industry Beijing is striving to clean up.
That's the tack U.S. officials have taken with China for some time. They argue that by allowing more flexibility in the yuan's exchange rate, Beijing will give itself more leeway to adjust interest rates and control its own economy. The Chinese government is now struggling to rein in investment that is leading to runaway growth and threatening another boom-bust cycle.
Mr. Paulson's comments on the yuan so far have been measured.
But having barely set foot in China, Mr. Paulson was already coming under pressure to speed things along. "Secretary Paulson's repeated efforts to lowball expectations just before beginning negotiations with the Chinese represent a major tactical and strategic mistake," U.S. Business and Industry Council President Kevin L. Kearns said in a written release yesterday. "His claims that Chinese reforms 'will take time,' and his criticisms of 'quick fixes,' inevitably tell Beijing that it can keep stonewalling with impunity."
Sens. Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, and Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, have asked for a Senate vote on a bill that would impose 27.5% tariffs on all imports from China, in retaliation for the alleged advantage an undervalued yuan gives to Chinese businesses.
Aside from the currency, analysts predict Mr. Paulson will push the interests of international financial-services companies, which he sees as necessary for economic growth.
Mr. Paulson has made a point of pooh-poohing expectations that he will make concrete headway on specific economic issues during his four-day China trip. Rather, he has said he is trying to set the tone and build relationships for slower, more-durable gains.
The personal touch seemed to get the attention of Mr. Xi. "We treasure your friendship," he told Mr. Paulson before the two men strolled together through the lush gardens around the guesthouse, the same complex where Richard Nixon stayed during his groundbreaking visit in 1972.
"He's the kind of guy who knows how to get over the goal line," Mr. Paulson said after their meeting.
美国财长中国之行意在编织关系网
美国财政部部长亨利?鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)周三与浙江省省委书记习近平举行了会谈，这是他到访中国后进行的首场会谈。
鲍尔森将习近平视为政坛的后起之秀，将浙江省视做对美出口的活跃省份，不过，他首先选择与习近平举行会谈并不是因为他是国家政界要人，也不是因为浙江省是中国的经济大省。数月前，鲍尔森和习近平首次在纽约市会面，当时鲍尔森就承诺到中国后会拜访习近平。在鲍尔森看来，在中国开展业务的关键就是要建立起长期的关系。
在鲍尔森初次与习近平见面时，他还是高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)的首席执行长，那时他还会晤了其他许多中国官员。本周，这位新任美国财长终于第一次有机会利用这些关系为美国政府服务。美国政府的工作日程中排满了从保护美国公司的知识产权到说服北京进一步放松人民币汇率管制等各种敏感的经济问题。
“我说过我会来的，”鲍尔森在杭州的西湖国宾馆对来此欢迎他的习近平说道。
在到达杭州之前，鲍尔森曾解释说，这些问题往往需要双方做出妥协，需要耐心、倾听和对话。具体到中国，就需要一个和所有关键人物进行交流的过程。
美国财政部官员很早以前就发现中国的决策过程很不透明，他们曾努力探寻中国的决策权到底是掌握在哪些官员手中。他们希望鲍尔森此行能为美国财政部多少带回一些内幕消息。在此之前，鲍尔森先后以投资银行家、旅行者和环保人士的身份来过中国70多次。
作为美国总统布什(George W. Bush)的经济特使，鲍尔森自己也列出了一份他希望能会晤到的中国官员的名单，其中包括中国国家主席胡锦涛。鲍尔森本周将在北京与胡锦涛举行会谈。另外他还将会晤中国财政部长金人庆以及负责中国能源政策的国家发展和改革委员会主任马凯。
另外，鲍尔森还将和北京市市长王歧山举行会谈，两人在2003年非典型肺炎(SARS)爆发期间曾有过合作。当时，北京市前任市长因隐瞒非典型肺炎疫情而被解职，由王歧山出任市长，他想尽一切办法想向世人表明北京是安全的。于是他找到鲍尔森，问他是否愿意帮忙，对北京做一次公开的访问。鲍尔森二话没说就登上了飞往北京的飞机，由此带来了新闻媒体铺天盖地的正面报导。
在杭州陪同鲍尔森访问的一位美国财政部高级官员说，人际关系的重要性超出了你的想像，它们能让你获得开诚布公讨论的机会，让你有机会达成目标。
鲍尔森之前在中国市场有着很成功的业务经历。2004，他帮助实施了一项颇具创意的计划，让高盛得以绕开中国严格的所有权法规，控制了一家集经纪和投行业务为一身的中国公司。在此之前还没有哪家外国投行能成功做到这一点。
据熟悉内情的人士称，当时鲍尔森所持的主张就是：成立这样一家公司也最符合中国自身的利益，因为高盛可以帮助中国提高其证券行业的标准。目前北京方面正在积极对证券行业进行清理。
包括美国前财政部长约翰?斯诺(John Snow)在内的许多美国官员也曾利用类似的观点来对付中国。他们声称，通过放松对人民币汇率的管制，将使得北京在利率调整和经济控制方面获得更大的回旋余地。目前中国政府正在努力收紧投资，以防止过快的投资增长带来经济失控的问题。
从目前来看，鲍尔森对人民币问题的评论还是颇为谨慎。他曾提及必须提高汇率灵活性的问题，而这是中国政府领导人已经公开认可的目标；对于被中国官员排除在外的一次性提高人民币汇率的问题，鲍尔森却没有谈及过。近几周来，人民币兑美元汇率的波动幅度有所扩大。
在与胡锦涛的会谈中，鲍尔森将有机会向一位真正的决策者表达他对汇率问题的看法。中国央行行长周小川曾在新加坡与鲍尔森一同进餐，但他在中国汇率政策上只能提供意见和建议，包括胡锦涛在内的少数中共高层官员才有最后的决定权。
虽然刚刚踏上中国的土地，但鲍尔森已经开始面临要求他加快解决中美经贸关系问题的压力。“鲍尔森在与中方展开谈判前反复降低美方预期，这在战略和技巧上是一个重大失误，”美国工商业协会(Business and Industry Council)主席凯文?卡恩斯(Kevin L. Kearns)周二在一份书面新闻稿中称，“他声称中国改革‘需要时间’、并批评了急于求成的观点，这难免会让北京方面认为自己可以安心执行现有的政策。”
美国民主党参议员查尔斯?舒默(Charles Schumer)和共和党参议员林赛?格拉汉姆(Lindsey Graham)曾要求参议院举行投票，决定是否对所有中国进口产品加征27.5%的报复性关税。
分析师预计，除了汇率问题外，鲍尔森还将为国际金融服务公司争取利益，他认为这对经济增长是十分必要的。
上周，中国监管机构宣布暂停审批新的中外合资证券公司，此举让一些华尔街公司在华扩张的野心受挫，其中包括摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)和美林公司(Merrill Lynch & Co)。
鲍尔森强调，不要指望他在四天访华期间能在特定的经济问题上取得显着进展。相反，他表示，此行的目标是要努力为今后取得更为持久的成果奠定基调、建立起人脉关系网。
这种个人的交往似乎得到了习近平的关注，他向鲍尔森表示，我们珍视你的友谊。
鲍尔森在会谈后表示，习近平是那种知道如何达成目标的人。
Michael M. Phillips / Andrew Browne
