The billion-dollar memory lapse
It is the hottest day of the year, apocalyptic chords are crashing around an empty church and George Soros is describing his messiah complex. The man who made $1bn in a day by betting against the Bank of England always thought he was set apart. As a child, Soros had what he calls "messianic fantasies".
"I felt I was putting in time until I found my place in the world," he says, his rasping voice a reminder of his central European origins. "I was ill at ease in the position in which I was."
Today, however, he finds himself in a locale designed to nourish outsize egos - Mosimann's, a dining club in a former Presbyterian church. It is staff training day and the place is deserted. But we are going to be served all the same, having booked a private room for ￡150.
As we drink at the bar overlooking what was once the aisle, a Wagnerian crescendo swells behind us. It is the kind of music you might want to invade Poland to. No wonder the establishment's corporate clients find it so invigorating.
Soros, however, is in a different league - so engagingly Olympian that he affects absent-mindedness about his greatest coup - Black Wednesday, September 16 1992. That day, when Soros successfully bet the British pound would be devalued, broke John Major's government, led to the election of the Labour party and entered political folklore as an unforgettable date. But not, it seems, to the man who made the most money out of it.
"Was it Wednesday?" he asks. "It was Thursday, I think."
"Wednesday," I confirm. "Definitely Wednesday."
"Was it?" he asks again, seeming to distance himself from his former self.
Today, the 75-year-old no longer moves markets. He admits his Quantum Fund, so feared throughout the 1990s, is not a major player. But if anything his ambitions are now even greater. Soros has set up a network of charitable foundations that span the globe, prides himself on having helped the 2003 "rose revolution" that toppled Georgia's President Eduard Shevardnadze, and has poured money into opposing the administration of George W. Bush.
He has also written nine books, most of them over the past decade, dedicated to his pet theory of "reflexivity". Having just read the latest - The Age of Fallibility - I want to stave off the moment when we start exchanging abstract concepts.
Instead, as Soros nurses his Campari and soda, I ask about 1944, the year when the Nazis invaded his native Hungary and killed hundreds of thousands of Soros's fellow Jews. Soros himself had to deliver deportation notices. And yet it is the year he terms the best in his life.
"It was undoubtedly the formative year," he says of that time, when his father obtained fake identity papers that saved the family's lives and those of many others. "I was very close to my father and he imparted his entire wisdom in a practical demonstration of what you have to do to survive. A lot of my subsequent adventures in the financial world and my philanthropic philanderings were very much influenced by him, by this.
"I learnt then that there are times when the normal rules don't apply," he says. "Also the fact that it might be more dangerous to be passive - it can be less risky to take risk." He leans back, discomfited by the heat.
Soros is by turns imperious, grandiloquent and humble. He revels in some of the more gushing ways he has been described, such as "the man who broke the Bank of England" and the "stateless statesman". Yet he also listens, nods and offers up unflattering adjectives for himself and his arguments when I ask whether he is not simply a billionaire playing at being a big thinker. "Arrogant," he suggests at one point; "obscene" he volunteers at another.
I remark on the difference between him and his father, whom he calls the biggest influence on his life. Both were shaped by their experiences in world wars - his father in a Siberian prison camp during the Russian revolution. But afterwards Soros senior never sought money or power.
"In some ways he was broken by the experience," Soros says of his father, a lawyer who pioneered the world's first and only Esperanto literary magazine but wound up running an espresso stand in Coney Island in New York. "He avoided the limelight."
There is a rustle behind us and Anton Mosimann, the chef and proprietor of the establishment appears, smiling, bow-tied, moustachioed. He, like Soros, has a philosophy - his website says that chicken should taste like chicken and fish should taste like fish - and he has written even more books than the billionaire.
"You're not open today?" asks Soros.
"We have some food for you," Mosimann assures us and before long we are led to the back of the church, down past a set of firedoors, to the Davidoff Room - a sponsored dining area intended to resemble the inside of a humidor.
This is not the first time Soros has seen the back of a restaurant. After he came to the UK in 1947 (his father dissuaded him from going to the Soviet Union), he had a variety of odd jobs while studying at the London School of Economics. At one time he worked at Quaglino's, then a stylish London eaterie, and subsisted on profiteroles. He also spent time as a trinket salesman and a swimming pool attendant.
But it was his studies at the LSE that proved more influential - particularly his fleeting contacts with Karl Popper, the philosopher who preached the merits of an "open society" over the totalitarianisms of Nazism and communism.
What swayed Soros was Popper's insight that, since mankind could make mistakes, societies should be receptive to new ideas rather than based on rigid doctrines. He himself went further, arguing that people are bound to be wrong.
This is where his talk of "reflexivity" comes in. The idea is basically that people's misconceptions interact with reality - whether through driving down a currency or promoting an idea such as President Bush's war on terror. Soros swears the theory helped make his fortune.
"I really have no problem with being rich," he smiles. (It's a big weight off my mind.) He says he allows himself minor indulgences, such as keeping a permanent staff in his London flat although he spends most of his time in the US.
He made his way to New York to work as a hedge fund manager in 1956 and his father joined him the same year. Two decades later, after he had made his first $30m, he had a midlife crisis. "I was knocking myself out. I really thought long and hard about what I needed more money for," he says as he digs into an endive salad. "As part of that process I decided to set up the Open Society Fund."
Soros calls the network of organisations he finances "a cross between a foundation and a movement". It has subsidised ministers' salaries in Georgia after the rose revolution, saved scientists in the former Soviet Union from starvation and seeks to promote government transparency, human rights and a free press. It has even supported the Hungarian zither players' association.
But it is for making money that he is best known. Stories abound about Soros the financier - about how he lost millions in Russia and Japan, about how he always wanted to raise the stakes. His $1bn profit on Black Wednesday, for example, came because he had bet $10bn. Investing also brought him pain - because of his fear of losing what he had risked. Despite all of Soros's talk of reflexivity, he admits he often sensed trouble with his investments because of an ache in his back.
He no longer has the same appetite for risk - partly because he wants to see his foundations endure after his death. That means the days are over when he gambled his entire wealth in a single day.
"It's a relief not to be dependent on the market," he says, adding that he sees his legacy as his books and his philanthropy. "The money is a means to an end; the end is a philosophy translated into action."
Nor has he given up trying to win support for his "conceptual framework", even though he long ago confessed that he could not make head or tail of his own writings.
Who are his books written for, I ask, prodding a fork into my beef tartare and watching egg yolk slide out of it. Soros tranquilly munches his salmon, stopping to remove a hint of mayonnaise from his thumb. "Students," he replies. "People who are still forming their view of the world."
Students? But the last 50 pages of The Age of Fallibility are a reworking of a 43-year-old text that even Popper, his old mentor, wasn't much interested in.
"Well I have a sense that I haven't got my ideas across," he says. He says the book is an attempt to study US society, which he faults for re-electing Bush and hence, in his view, making the world a more dangerous place.
"I basically wrote it to clarify my own thinking," he adds. "The ultimate audience, so to speak, is me."
He also wants to change public opinion, and in the last US election undertook an anti-Bush speaking tour - something, I suggest, that may amount to a rich man's folly.
"Since I'm a rich man, whatever folly I commit is a rich man's folly," he half laughs, half splutters.
And isn't it strange that a billionaire should write a screed against US consumerism and the way business seeks to stimulate desires?
"I have been successful within the capitalist system," he replies. "Who better qualified to criticise globalisation than somebody who flourishes within it?"
The meal has overrun its time. We grab an espresso and then he leads the way back up to the main building, sliding his way past what appears to be an empty dessert trolley. At the main door, Mosimann and his staff line up to say goodbye and Soros ambles to his unpretentious chauffeured Citroen.
Days later the bill still has not arrived. I have little idea how much our meal has cost the FT. But, by any calculation, it came to far less than Soros made during a tenth of a second on Black Wednesday. Or Black Thursday. Or whenever it was.
Mosimann's Private Dining Club and Private Rooms, London SW1 1 x Campari and soda
1 x tomato juice
1 x ceviche
1 x endive salad
1 x salmon
1 x beef tartare
2 x glasses of white Burgundy
1 x bottle mineral water
2 x espressos
风险索罗斯
这
是今年最热的一天，启示录般的和弦回响在空荡的教堂，乔治?索罗斯(George Soros)讲述着自己的“救世主情结”。这个赌赢英国央行(Bank of England)，一天进账10亿美元的人，一直认为自己与众不同。当他还是个孩子的时候，就有着他所谓的“救世主幻想”。
“我觉得自己有朝一日将在世界上发挥自己的作用，”他说道，那粗糙的嗓音表明他的中欧血统。“以前我对自己的处境感到不安。”
然而，今天，他置身于一个迎合“特大号”自负的场所――Mosimann’s，这个休闲餐厅曾是长老会教堂。今天是员工培训日，这个地方空空荡荡。不过，既然花费150英镑预定了一间私人包房，我们仍可享受服务。
当我们在吧台喝酒、俯瞰曾经是侧廊的地方时，一阵瓦格纳风格的渐强音在我们身后越来越响。这是那种可能让你想去侵略波兰的音乐。怪不得这个餐厅的公司客户觉得这里令人振奋。
超然到心不在焉
不过，索罗斯完全属于另一类。他是如此超然，以至于对自己最大的成就――1992年9月16日“黑色星期三” ――也心不在焉。那是一个难忘的日子，索罗斯赌赢英镑贬值，打击了约翰?梅杰(John Major)政府，最终导致工党上台。不过，那一天赚到最多钱的人，却不那么在乎。
“那天是星期三吗？”他问道。“我觉得是星期四。”
“星期三，”我确认道。“肯定是星期三。”
“是吗？”他又问了一遍，仿佛要与从前的自己保持距离。
斥巨资反对布什政府
如今，75岁的他不再在市场上兴风作浪。他承认，曾在整个90年代让人敬畏的他的量子基金(Quantum Fund)，已不是重量级角色。不过，他的雄心现在不是更小，而是更大了。索罗斯建立了一个横跨全球的慈善基金网，他为推动了导致格鲁吉亚总统爱德华?谢瓦尔德纳泽(Eduard Shevardnadze)下台的2003年“玫瑰革命”(rose revolution)而自豪，同时还斥巨资反对布什政府。
他还写了9本书，大部分都是近10年写的，用来阐述他喜爱的“反射性”(reflexivity)理论。我刚读过他最新的书《易错时代》(The Age of Fallibility)，想晚些时候再跟他讨论抽象概念。
于是，在索罗斯啜饮他的堪培利开胃酒和苏打水时，我问到1944年的情况。那一年，纳粹入侵了他的祖国匈牙利，杀死了他的数十万犹太同胞。索罗斯本人曾不得不投递驱逐通知。不过，他认为那是他一生中最好的一年。
他在提到那个时代时表示：“这无疑是我形成世界观的一年。”当时他的父亲获得了伪造的身份证件，拯救了家人和其他许多人的性命。“我与父亲的关系非常密切，他用活生生的现实把全部的智慧教给我，说明为了生存人必须做些什么。我后来在金融圈里的许多冒险行为，以及我的慈善举措在很大程度上都是受他的影响，受这种思想的影响。”
“常规准则也有不适用的时候”
“我当时学到，常规准则也有不适用的时候，”他表示。“我还认识到，有时候，消极被动可能更加危险，冒险的风险反而更小。”他向后靠了靠，天太热了。
索罗斯的性格中掺杂着专横、张扬和谦卑。他对用在他身上的一些夸张描述颇为得意，如“打败英国央行的人”，或是“没有国籍的政治家”。不过，当我问他是否仅仅是一位“客串”大思想家的亿万富翁时，他也会聆听、点头，并用一些不客气的形容词来描绘自己和自己的主张。他有时会建议用“傲慢的”这个词，也会主动提议用“令人讨厌的”。
我谈起他与他父亲之间的不同之处，他称父亲对他的人生产生了最重大的影响。世界大战经历对他们都有很大影响――他的父亲在俄国革命期间曾被关押在西伯利亚集中营。但此后，老索罗斯从来没有寻求过金钱或权力。
“从某些方面来说，他被经历给打垮了，”索罗斯提到他父亲时表示。他的父亲是一位律师，创办了全球首份、也是唯一一份世界语文学杂志，但最后在纽约科尼岛经营一个卖意大利浓咖啡的小摊。“他避免受人关注。”
我们背后发出一阵沙沙声，这时该店的主厨兼业主安东?莫西曼(Anton Mosimann)出现了，脸上挂着微笑，系着蝴蝶结领结，蓄着浓密的胡须。与索罗斯一样，他也有着自己的一套哲学――他的网站上称，鸡肉的味道应该像鸡肉，而鱼也应该吃起来像鱼――他写的著作甚至比这位亿万富翁还要多。
“你们今天不开张吗？”索罗斯问道。
“我们已经为你们做了一些食物，”莫西曼向我们保证，并很快带着我们走向教堂的后部，我们沿着一扇扇防火门走下去，进入大卫杜夫房(Davidoff Room)，这是一间包房，故意设计得像雪茄烟盒内部。
在伦敦打工求学
这并非索罗斯第一次看到一家餐馆的后部。1947年他来到英国后（他父亲劝他不要去苏联），在伦敦政治经济学院就读期间曾打过形形色色的零工。他曾在当时伦敦一家时髦的餐馆Quaglino’s工作，靠空心甜饼充饥。他还做过小饰品的推销员，也在游泳池当过服务生。
但他在伦敦政治经济学院的学习更具影响力，特别是与哲学家卡尔?波普(Karl Popper)的短暂接触，波普推崇“开放社会”相对于纳粹主义和共产主义等极权主义的优点。
对索罗斯形成影响的是波普的洞察力：由于人类可能犯错，社会应接受新思想，而不应死守僵硬的教条。他自己则走得更远，主张人肯定会犯错。
人的错误观念会与现实发生互动
这就是他的“反射性”(reflexivity)理论的来源。其基本思想是，人的错误观念会与现实发生互动，无论是压低汇率，还是宣传一个主意，如美国布什总统的反恐战争。索罗斯断言，这一理论帮助他赚取了财富。
他笑道：“我对自己的富裕相当坦然。”（这让我松了一口气。）他表示，他让自己有一些小小的挥霍，如在伦敦公寓保留永久员工，尽管他大部分时间都在美国。
1956年，他来到纽约，担任一家对冲基金的经理，同年其父也来到纽约。20年后，当他赚得自己的首桶金3000万美元后，他遭遇了中年危机。“我累坏了。我痛苦地思索，我要更多的钱是为了什么，”他说。他开始吃菊苣沙拉，“作为这个过程的一部分，我决定建立开放社会基金(Open Society Fund)。”
索罗斯将他筹资建立的机构网络称为“基金会与运动的交叉点”。它曾在格鲁吉亚玫瑰革命(rose revolution)后支付部长级官员的薪水，在前苏联帮助多位科学家免遭饥饿，还致力于促进政府透明度、人权和传媒自由。它甚至曾支持过匈牙利齐特琴弹奏者协会。
但赚钱是他最知名之处。有关金融家索罗斯的故事非常多――关于他如何在俄罗斯和日本损失巨额资金，以及他如何总是想要加大赌注。例如，他在黑色星期三(Black Wednesday)赚得10亿美元利润的原因是，他押注100亿美元。投资也给他带来了痛苦，因为他担心失去冒险投入的资金。尽管索罗斯谈到一大堆反射性理论，他承认，自己往往是由于背痛，才感觉到投资遇到了麻烦。
他对风险的兴趣已经不再，部分原因是，他希望自己的基金会能够长期存在。这意味着，他在一天内用自己的全部财富豪赌的时代已经过去。
“不再依赖市场让我欣慰”
“不再依赖市场让我感到欣慰，”他表示，并补充称，他认为自己的主要遗产是著作和慈善事业。“金钱是达到目的的手段；而目的是投入行动的哲学。”
他也没有放弃获得对其“概念框架”支持的努力，即使他在很久以前承认，他无法弄清楚自己的作品。
我一边把餐叉叉进我的鞑靼牛肉，看着蛋黄从中流出，一边问他的书是为谁而写。索罗斯静静地嚼着鲑鱼，他停下来从手指上弄走少量蛋黄酱。“学生们，”他回答，“那些正在形成世界观的人们。”
学生们？《易错时代》最后50页是对43年前一篇课文的改写，连他的导师波普(Popper)对那些内容都没有太多兴趣。
他表示：“我有一种感觉，我没有很好诠释自己的理念。”他表示，那本书是一次研究美国社会的尝试，他责备美国社会让布什连任，按照他的观点，这使世界处于更为危险的境地。
“写书是为了理顺自己的思路”
“我写这本书，主要是理顺自己的思路，”他补充说。“可以说最终的听众就是我。”
他也希望改变公众舆论，并在上届美国大选时进行了一次反布什巡回演讲――我提出，那也许是一个有钱人的荒唐事。
“既然我是个有钱人，我做的任何荒唐事，都是一个有钱人的荒唐事，”他一边笑着，一边仓促地说。
一位亿万富翁写一篇冗长的文章，来反对美国的消费主义和企业寻求刺激需求的方式，这难道不奇怪么？
“谁比我更有资格批评全球化？”
“在资本主义制度下，我是成功的，”他回答。“谁比我这样在资本主义制度下取得成功的人更有资格批评全球化？”
这顿饭超过了原定的时间。我们快速喝下一杯浓咖啡，随后，他带我从一个空甜点推车旁走过，回到主楼。在大门口，莫西曼和他的员工排成一排说再见，索罗斯慢步走向有专人驾驶的低调的雪铁龙(Citroen)汽车。
几天后，账单还是没到。我不太清楚我们那顿饭花了英国《金融时报》多少钱。但我估计，这些钱远远少于索罗斯在黑色星期三(Black Wednesday)那天用十分之一秒钟挣的钱。那天或许叫黑色星期四，谁知道呢。
莫西曼私人餐饮俱乐部及包房，伦敦SW1
1份堪培利开胃酒和苏打
1份番茄汁
1份酸橘汁腌鱼
1份菊苣沙拉
1份鲑鱼
1份鞑靼牛肉
2杯白勃艮第
1瓶矿泉水
2杯浓咖啡
