Take the risk out of running your business
How many kinds of intelligence are there? In business at least, the types of intelligence seem to be proliferating. First came emotional intelligence (EQ), which measures how good we are at managing relationships with others. Then there was creative intelligence (CQ), which measured our ability to think creatively and to innovate. And now there is risk intelligence, or "risk IQ", which measures our ability to understand and learn about risk.
Risk IQ is the brainchild of consultant and lecturer David Apgar, whose new book, Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don't Know, describes the concept and its application in detail. Apgar's starting premise is that the more we know about risks, the better we become at ???-managing them, and this in turn reduces our exposure to risks. Few would argue with his assertion that many companies and managers are not good enough at understanding risk, but how can they get better? Apgar sets out to provide some answers.
This book is not about managing risk, but about managing the management of risk; it aims to show how to measure the competency of companies and individuals at learning about and assessing risk. It starts by dividing risks into two types: random risks, which are unpredictable and can???-not be anticipated, and non-random or "learnable" risks, which can be anticipated and ???-studied.
The book focuses on learnable risks.We are told how to measure our risk IQ, how to develop a "risk strategy audit", which in effect is a way of prioritising risks and balancing risk against growth needs, and creating adaptive networks that can help us to learn about risks and assess them more effectively. A final chapter draws the concepts together, showing how these tools can be used systematically to improve a company's ability to assess risk.
At times highly interesting, the book is also uneven. The chapter on using networks and partnerships is excellent and well worth reading, for instance.
The chapter on "risk strategy audits", however, tends to drift aimlessly. At times the author talks of auditing existing strategy, at others about creating strategy.
An interesting passage on balancing risk strategy with growth strategy is succeeded by a quasi-Confucian passage on "the four seasons of risk strategy patterns" and "reap-and-sow versus nurture strategies".
A more serious flaw lies in the distinction between random and learnable risks, which becomes the book's leitmotif. Given that we are dealing explicitly with non-financial risks, what is the difference between a random and a non-random risk? The author does not make clear where he draws the line, and later muddies the waters by accepting that some random risks might be learnable. Which risks do we set aside as "unlearnable" and which do we study?
The book's opening passage recounts the story of Wilmer McLean, a prosperous farmer in northern Virginia, whose farm was wrecked in 1861 when it became the battleground of Bull Run, the first big battle of the American civil war. Mr McLean moved to Appomattox, Virginia, where he became a prosperous sugar dealer. In 1865, his house was the site of the surrender of General Robert E. Lee's Confederate army to the Union. Victorious Union officers wrecked the house and stole Mr McLean's furniture as souvenirs.
It is a great story, but the author implies that if McLean had weighed the risks better, he could have avoided trouble. How? Both incidents, from the perspective of a farmer and a sugar dealer, must have seemed random. Apgar argues that they were not, but if we accept this, it becomes difficult to understand what a random risk is. Even if we do understand the distinction, does it help much? Many risk management consultants advise businesses to concentrate on those risks deemed most likely to occur, regardless of the randomness of their nature. This would seem to be advice of more practical value.
Against this, Risk Intelligence has an important message. More and better understanding of risk is needed. Otherwise, Apgar warns, we are in danger of choosing inherently risky strategies, perhaps even in the misguided belief that they are somehow less risky.
测测你的“风险智商”
智
商有多少种呢？至少在商业领域，智商的种类似乎与日俱增。先是情感方面的智商，即情商(EQ)，用来衡量我们能否很好地管理与他人之间的关系。然后是创意智商(CQ)，衡量我们的创造和创新思维能力。现在又出现了“风险智商”(risk IQ)，用以测评我们理解和学习风险的能力。
“风险智商”一词，是咨询师兼培训师大卫?阿普加(David Apgar)的发明。他在新书《风险智商：学习管理我们不知道的风险》(Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don’t Know)中阐述了这一概念，并具体讲述了它的应用。阿普加的前提假设是，我们对风险了解得越多，管理风险的能力也越好，而这进而又会减小我们的风险暴露。很少有人会反驳他的断言：许多企业和经理人对风险的理解不够好。但如何加以改善呢？阿普加在书中提出了一些答案。
这本书的主题不是风险管理，而是如何对风险管理进行管理；它旨在说明如何评价企业和个人了解和评估风险的能力。该书首先将风险分为两类：随机风险和非随机风险（或“可学的”风险）。前者是不可预测的，也无法预测，而后者可以预测并加以研究。
该书的重点是可学的风险。它告诉我们如何测评我们的风险智商，以及如何发展“风险战略审核”。后者实际上是一种方法，用以对各种风险进行优先排序，并针对增长需要来平衡风险，以及创建适应性网络，帮助我们了解并更有效地评估风险。该书在最后一章对所有概念进行总结，说明如何系统地使用这些工具，以提高企业评估风险的能力。
该书有些章节非常有意思，但并不是每一章都引人入胜。例如，有关运用网络和伙伴关系的章节非常精彩，值得一读。
然而，“风险战略审核”这章却主旨不明。作者有时谈到对现行战略进行审核，而有时又在讲如何创建战略。
书中有一个很有意思的章节，讲述了风险战略与增长战略的平衡问题，而紧随其后的章节有点儒家味道，讲述“风险战略模式的四季”和“收割播种与培育战略”。
作为该书的主题，随机风险与可学风险的区别问题是该书一个更为严重的缺陷。既然我们很明确地是在应对非财务风险，那么随机风险与非随机风险的区别是什么呢？该书作者没有明确阐述，之后，他承认某些随机风险可能是可学的，使这一区别更加混淆。哪些风险是我们应该作为“不可学风险”来处理的，而哪些风险是我们应该加以研究的呢？
该书开篇叙述了弗吉尼亚州北部一位成功的农场主威尔默?麦克莱恩(Wilmer McLean)的故事。他的农场在1861年遭到破坏，当时这里成为美国内战首个重要战役布尔伦河战役（Bull Run，又称马纳萨斯战役）的战场。麦克莱恩后来迁往弗吉尼亚州的阿波马托克斯，在那里成为一位成功的食糖经销商。1865年，他的住宅成为罗伯特?E.?李(Robert E.?Lee)将军领导的南军向北军投降的地点。获胜的北军将士毁坏了这幢房屋，并盗取了麦克莱恩的家具作为纪念品。
这是一个精彩的故事，但作者暗示，如果麦克莱恩能够更好地权衡各种风险的话，他本可以避免这场麻烦。那么如何来权衡呢？从农场主和食糖经销商的角度来看，这两个事件似乎都应该是随机的。阿普加却认为不是；但如果我们接受这一观点，那就很难理解什么是随机风险。即便我们真的理解两种风险之间的区别，又能有多大的帮助呢？许多风险管理咨询师建议，企业关注他们认为最可能发生的风险，而不管这些风险的随机程度。这样的建议似乎更具实用价值。
对此，《风险智商》提出一个重要观点：我们有必要加深和改善对风险的理解。阿普加警告称，否则的话，我们有可能会选择充满固有风险的战略，甚至有可能被误导，认为它们的风险不大。
