Conference leaves Taiwan business people deflated
As the more than 100 delegates at Taiwan's government-organised economic reform conference returned home on Friday night, they could have been forgiven for feeling exhausted and somewhat deflated.
They had spent the two-day session and the almost 50 preparatory meetings in the preceding month arguing bitterly over whether closer links with China, Taiwan's political adversary, would resolve or aggravate the island's economic problems.
Instead of coming up with firm decisions, the conference managed only to draw up a list of more than 500 policy recommendations for the cabinet, most of which appeared to be restatements of general concepts rather than specific changes.
For many, it was a disappointing conclusion to an exercise that the government and business community had both viewed as the last chance to push through decisive change in cross-Strait economic ties before the 2008 presidential election.
"I'm afraid many will think this conference was a waste of time," said Yeh Hung-teng, a representative of Taiwanese investors in China who had lobbied in favour of more liberal regulations - a stance fiercely resisted by the pro-independence camp.
Supporters of closer economic ties with China say it is the only means of structural recovery for Taiwan - once one of the four Asian "tigers" but which has become in the past few years the slowest-growing economy in the region apart from Japan.
As manufacturers have rapidly relocated large parts of their production to the lower-cost Chinese mainland, domestic investment has stalled, resulting in stubbornly high unemployment and an increasing wealth gap.
This comes on top of structural problems shared with most other developed economies, notably a rapidly ageing population that requires large-scale pension and health insurance reform and is burdening government coffers.
"We did not address our key structural problems when it was time for that a few years ago," Tsai Ing-wen, deputy premier, told business leaders before the conference. "So if we delay this again, we will have a price to pay."
But after taking a closer look at the conference outcome, business leaders are not totally pessimistic. First, the long list of recommendations does include a few that matter, and Su Tseng-chang, the Taiwan premier, promised on Friday that the cabinet would follow up with specific plans for implementation within a month.
The conference reached a consensus that the government should allow Taiwanese technology companies to invest in mainstream production technology in China. Until now, Taiwan has required its chipmakers to use technology in their mainland plants that is more mature than that used by their Chinese competitors.
A loosening of this regulation is expected to make the mainland presence of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (TSMC), the world's largest contract chipmaker, more meaningful, and speed up the planned China investments of Powerchip and Promos, twoTaiwanese memory chipmakers.
With regard to the domestic economy, the conference decided that the government should pursue overall pension reform, giving it a mandate to replace the current accumulation of cash handouts to senior citizens from different ethnic and professional backgrounds with a fairer and more fiscally sustainable system.
The conference also gave the government a mandate to dispose of its shares in some state-controlled financial institutions, raising hopes that long-stalled consolidation of Taiwan's overcrowded banking sector could be revived.
Mr Su appears to have affirmed his policy-making authority against the weakened president, Chen Shui-bian, and his more fundamentalist supporters.
He skilfully prevented pro-independence forces from kicking the business community's demand for a relaxation of China investment restrictions off the agenda, and emphasised that the cabinet would act on these issues as it saw fit.
"For us, that is the clearest sign that there is indeed some hope Mr Su will pursue the pragmatic policies we need and that the ideologues are losing influence," said a senior representative of the local chamber of commerce.
让人泄气的台湾“经续会”
上
周五晚上，参加台湾政府组织的经济改革会议的100多位代表回到家。如果他们会后感到疲惫且有点泄气，是可以原谅的。
周五晚上，参加台湾政府组织的经济改革会议的100多位代表回到家。如果他们会后感到疲惫且有点泄气，是可以原谅的。
两天的会议及此前一个月的近50次预备会议，他们就一个议题作了激烈辩论。该议题就是，加强与政敌中国大陆的联系，能否解决台湾岛内的经济问题，还是会令其经济恶化？
此次会议没有做出切实的决定，只是制定了一个包括500多项政策建议的列表供行政院参考，其中大多数看上去是一般的概念重复，而非具体改革措施。
对许多人来说，这次会议如此收场令人失望，因为政府和商界都曾认为，这是在2008年总统选举前通过有关措施，对海峡两岸经济联系推进决定性改革的最后机会。
“恐怕很多人会认为这次会议是浪费时间，”大陆台商代表叶宏灯表示。他一直在游说，赞成政府制定更开放的监管政策，而倾向于台湾独立的阵营则坚决反对这一立场。
支持与大陆建立更紧密经济联系的人士称，这是台湾实现结构性复苏的唯一途径。台湾曾是亚洲四小龙之一，但在过去几年中，却成了除日本之外亚洲地区中增长最为缓慢的经济体。
随着制造业迅速地将大部分生产活动转移到成本更低廉的大陆，台湾岛内的投资已经停滞，使失业率居高不下，贫富差距日益拉大。
此外，台湾还面临着一些多数其它发达经济体共有的结构性问题，尤其是迅速老龄化的人口。人口老龄化迫使政府推行大规模的养老金和医疗保险改革，这一问题正在加重政府的财政负担。
“几年前我们就应当解决台湾的主要结构性问题，但我们没有做。”台湾行政院副院长蔡英文在会前对商界领袖们表示。“因此，如果我们再拖延下去，将为此付出代价。”
但在更细致地审视会议成果之后，商界领袖也并非全然悲观。首先，长长的建议单中确实包含了一些具有实质意义的意见，同时行政院长苏贞昌周五承诺，行政院将在一个月内制定出具体执行计划。
这次会议达成了一项共识，即政府应允许台湾的高科技公司在大陆投资主流生产技术。在此之前，台湾政府始终要求台湾的芯片制造商在大陆工厂使用比它们在大陆的竞争对手更成熟的技术。
人们预期，如果政府放松管制，全球最大的芯片代工商台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp)在大陆的投资规模将更大，也将加速台湾两大存储芯片制造商力晶(Powerchip)与茂德(Promos)计划在大陆的投资。
面对权力遭到削弱的陈水扁总统及其更坚持“台独”的基本教义派支持者的挑战，苏贞昌似乎明确宣示了自己的决策权威。
独派力量企图把企业界对放宽大陆投资限制的要求从议程表上删除，但被他巧妙地阻止。他还强调说，行政院将在合适的时机对这些问题采取措施。
