South Korea's Roh Feels Political Heat On Housing Costs
SEOUL, South Korea -- Fast-rising home prices are turning into a major political problem for South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun.
Following misfired efforts to cool the property market, South Korea's construction minister and a presidential aide submitted their resignations yesterday. Mr. Roh's government has passed several laws in recent years to rein in housing prices, with little effect.
Mr. Roh has expressed concern that if prices spiral out of control, South Korea could follow the experience of Japan, where the collapse of a real-estate bubble in the early 1990s contributed to an economic slump that lasted more than a decade. Prices have more than doubled in some parts of Seoul since 2002.
Government has traditionally played a big role in oversight of the property market in South Korea, where a few large conglomerates dominate real-estate development and control housing supply. Many Korean investors prefer real estate to stocks for long-term investment, and count on the government to assure their future economic well-being in the face of such market power.
The jump in prices over the past month followed an announcement by Construction and Transportation Minister Choo Byung Jik that the government would build apartments -- an increase in supply that would normally be expected to damp price rises. His statement, however, was interpreted as a signal that the government would ease curbs on real-estate development.
On Friday, a spokesman for Mr. Roh, Lee Baek Man, tried to talk down the price increases by issuing a statement urging Koreans to wait to buy housing. "If you buy houses now at an expensive price, you will have a predicament later," it said. The admonition was viewed as unusually negative for a government official. Messrs. Choo and Lee offered yesterday to resign.
South Korea is now considering new measures to control housing prices.
韩国房价飞涨给卢武铉带来新难题
一飞冲天的房地产价格已成为摆在韩国总统卢武铉(Roh Moo Hyun)面前的一大政治问题。
在韩国政府冷却地房地产市场的诸多举措失败后，韩国建筑部长及一位总统助理于周二递交了辞呈。这表明遏制房地产价格已成为卢武铉政府的当务之急。自2002年以来，韩国某些地区的房价上涨了一倍以上。政府近几年先后通过了一系列遏制房价的举措，但目前看来收效甚微。
韩国政府过去一向对房地产市场听之任之，地产开发及住房供给均掌握在少数大集团手中。与股票相比，韩国投资者更倾向于选择房地产作为他们的长期投资。面对着强大的市场支配力，他们都指望政府能给他们的未来经济利益提供保证。
卢武铉已经表达了对房价失控的担忧，他表示，如果房价上涨陷入恶性循环，韩国很可能会重蹈日本的覆辙。九十年代早期日本房地产泡沫的破灭导致经济放缓了十几年。
摆脱九十年代经济危机后韩国首都的人口急剧增长，这对房价起到推波助澜的作用。在韩国4,900万人口中，有大约2,000万人生活在大首尔地区。
不过真正令政府担忧的是，疯狂的投机活动可能已经令市场超出了基本面的影响。自从建设交通部部长Choo Byung Jik宣布政府将建设一批新公寓以后，一个月来房价出现了新一轮飙升──供给增长通常被认为可能抑制房价，但Choo的讲话却被理解为政府对房地产开发放宽管制的信号。而实际上政府的本意是抑制投机。
卢武铉的发言人Lee Baek Man上周五在总统网站上发表声明敦促韩国居民推迟买房，试图以言论影响市场。声明称，“如果你在这么高的价位买房，以后你一定会损失惨重。”
但这一警告却给这位官员带来了极大麻烦，他遭到了来自政府内部以及房地产经纪商和开发商的强烈谴责。
周二，Choo和Lee双双提出辞职。预计卢武铉将接受两人的辞职。
韩国目前正在考虑采取新措施控制房价。但部分分析师表示，这可能对市场造成进一步打击。西江大学(Sogang University)经济学教授Kim Kyung Hwan表示，卢武铉总统及国会议员们已经实施了太多的税收及其他控制地产销售的措施。现在，政策上的任何风吹草动都可能对地产价格产生重大影响。
“政府和市场就像是玩捉迷藏游戏一样，”Kim说。“价格飞涨时，政府出面进行政策干预，然后价格就降下来。但一旦政策取消，价格又会抬头。”
Evan Ramstad
