Risk as well as relief as Japan re-enters the mainstream
Welcome back, Japan, to the normal economic world. The Bank of Japan's decision last Friday to raise its main interest rate from zero to 0.25 per cent gives the central bank the choice, for the first time in six years, of next cutting or raising rates, just like its peers in the US, the eurozone and the UK.
Not that anyone is expecting the bank to loosen policy. Quite the opposite. For Japan, the end of zero interest rates signals that a "lost decade" of falling asset prices and deflation is well and truly behind it. But for nervous international investors, the main question is whether Japan's return to modest economic expansion and monetary orthodoxy could expose the fragility of unsustainably large global trade imbalances.
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These have been founded in part on the availability of cheap finance. With the world's main central banks now all engaged in co-ordinated monetary tightening, the speed with which the BoJ puts up interest rates has taken on a new significance.
The BoJ's relatively dovish statement - "an accommodative monetary environment ensuing from very low interest rates will probably be maintained for some time" - was met with a calm reaction by financial markets to the well-trailed move. Investors have taken the rate adjustment in their stride.
But Julian Jessop of Capital Economics, the London-based consultancy, thinks markets underestimate the chances of a sustained series of rate rises. He draws parallels with the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which started tightening monetary policy from lows, respectively, of 1 per cent and 2 per cent.
"Similar language from the Fed at the outset of its tightening cycle has not prevented US rates from rising to 5.25 per cent," he says.
Future rises in Japan's interest rates could encourage Japanese investors to invest their money at home rather than abroad. The danger is that this could lead to a higher yen and a fall in the value of foreign assets as a result of lower demand. Less investment in US assets could bring a bursting of the US housing bubble and a brake on consumer-led growth, spreading economic pain across the world.
Jim O'Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs, says: "Given Japan's role as a global saver, if the BoJ tightened by more than we expect, the consequences would be more concerning" than if the Fed or the ECB did. "Luckily, the signs from this move suggest the BoJ is very cognisant of this risk. Of the three main central banks, the BoJ is key because Japan is more involved in risky trades around the world."
Soon after the BoJ signalled the end of the zero interest rate policy in March, hedge funds and other investors involved in the so-called carry trade - in which investors borrow cheaply in currencies such as the yen to invest in high-yielding foreign assets elsewhere - began to reduce their exposure to some of the more popular of such trades. This led to declines for high-yielding currencies from New Zealand to Iceland.
But as Mr O'Neill also points out, it is almost impossible to disentangle the variety of forces leading to the May and June sell-off in financial markets, which included uncertainty about the pace of monetary tightening by the Fed under Ben Bernanke, its new chairman.
The yen has weakened recently but, as Andrew Smithers of the London-based Smithers & Co notes, this could represent an end to the Japanese currency's previous overshoot against the dollar rather than a reaction to monetary policy, especially as the differential between interest rates in Japan and elsewhere remains very wide. The problem for economists is that it is impossible to know in advance whether Friday's rise will prove a catalyst for the unwinding of global imbalances or whether it will have little direct impact.
The answer depends on unknowns such as the size of the carry trade, investors' perception of future currency movements between the yen and the dollar, the clarity with which the BoJ communicates its monetary policy and the impact of Japanese investors' decisions on US and emerging-market asset values.
Tighter financial conditions in Japan will contribute to tighter conditions globally. But the current global environment - characterised by rising tensions in the Middle East, higher energy prices and downward pressure on equity markets - will make it especially difficult to discern the direct impact of the Tokyo move on market volatility.
But even if the BoJ's action has little impact on the world economy, it has a totemic significance for Japan itself. As Toshihiko Fukui, the otherwise embattled BoJ governor, was able to proclaim on Friday: "The Japanese economy has been in a difficult period for over 10 years but thanks to efforts by the private and public sectors it is beginning to return to a normal state."
日本：告别“零利率”
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本，欢迎重返常规经济世界。日本央行(BoJ)上周五决定，将主要利率从零上调至0.25%。这一决定使日本央行6年来首次像美国、欧元区和英国央行一样，拥有了上调或下调利率的选择。
并非所有人都预期，日本央行在近期还会再次放松货币政策。恰恰相反。对于日本而言，零利率政策的结束，标志着它已真正、完全地告别了资产价格节节下降和通货紧缩的“失落的10年”。但对于紧张不安的全球投资者来说，主要问题在于，日本回归经济适度扩张和正统货币政策，是否会暴露大得难以持久的全球贸易失衡的脆弱性。
这种失衡在一定程度上是建立在资金低廉的基础上的。由于全球各大央行目前都在收紧货币政策，因而日本央行提高利率的速度更加事关重大。
日本央行的政策声明相对温和――“利率极低时期之后的宽松货币环境，很可能会维持一段时间”，金融市场对于这一受到密切追踪的举措反应平静。投资者从容应对了此次利率调整。
然而，总部位于伦敦的咨询机构 ―― 资本经济(Capital Economics)的朱利安?杰瑟普(Julian Jessop)却认为，市场低估了日本持续多次加息的机率。他援引美联储(Fed)和欧洲央行(ECB)的情况作为比较，两者分别从1%和2%的低利率开始收紧货币政策。
他表示：“美联储在加息周期开始的时候，也使用过类似的措辞，但没有阻止美元利率一路升至5.25%。”
日本进一步调升利率，可能会鼓励日本投资者将其资金投资于国内，而非海外。其危险在于，这可能导致日元走高，同时由于需求降低，外国资产的价格可能下降。对美国资产投资的减少，可能导致美国房地产泡沫破裂，并使消费拉动的增长限于停顿，进而使全球经济都受到不利影响。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)全球经济研究主管吉姆?奥尼尔(Jim O’Neill)表示：“鉴于日本扮演的‘全球储蓄者’角色，如果日本央行的加息幅度超出我们的预期，其后果将比美联储或欧洲央行的同样举措更令人担忧。幸运的是，日本央行此举的迹象表明，它充分认识到了这种风险。在全球三大央行中，日本央行是关键，因为日本在全球风险交易中的介入程度更深。”
日本央行在3月份发出了零利率政策即将结束的信号之后不久，参与所谓利差交易(carry trade)――投资者以低廉的成本借入日元等货币，投资于其它地区收益率较高的外国资产――的对冲基金和其它投资者，就开始减少参与某些较为流行的利差交易了。其结果是，从新西兰到冰岛，一些高收益率货币纷纷走低。
但正如奥尼尔同时指出的那样，分清导致金融市场5、6月份出现的抛售现象的各种力量，几乎是不可能的，这其中包括美联储在新任主席本?伯南克(Ben Bernanke)领导下，在收紧货币政策速度方面的不确定性。
日元最近有所走低，但正如伦敦咨询机构Smithers & Co的安德鲁?史密瑟斯(Andrew Smithers)所言，这可能只代表着先前日元兑美元汇率上涨过度的纠正，而不是对货币政策的反应，尤其是在日本与其它地区的利差仍然很大的情况下。经济学家的问题是，他们不可能预先知道上周五的加息，是否会成为解除全球失衡的催化剂，抑或它不会产生什么直接影响。
答案取决于一些未知因素，如利差交易的规模，投资者对日元兑美元未来汇率走势的看法，日本央行在其货币政策沟通方面的明晰程度，以及日本投资者的决策对美国和新兴市场资产价值的影响。
日本金融环境的收紧，将导致全球金融环境的紧缩。但目前的全球环境――中东紧张局势不断升级，能源价格上涨，股市面临下行压力――让人难以识别东京的举措对市场波动性的直接影响。
但即便日本央行的行动对世界经济的影响甚微，它对于日本自身也具有重要的象征意义。正如在其它事情上面临困境的日本央行行长福井俊彦(Toshihiko Fukui)上周五所能够宣称的：“日本经济经历了10年多的困难时期，但在私营及公共部门的努力下，它正开始恢复正常状态。”
