“中国对朝鲜影响力有限”
Beijing takes a soft line after Pyongyang missiles launch
Moments after North Korea launched a series of missile tests early on Wednesday morning, local time, the US, Japan and other nations issued immediate condemnations and initiated talks on a retaliatory response.
In neighbouring China, however, there was a seemingly embarrassed silence for about 12 hours, before the release in the evening of a brief, restrained statement expressing "serious concern" and calling for calm on all sides.
A mainland commentator, who asked not to be named, said the missiles launch underlined the failure of China's "preventative diplomacy" and the limits of Beijing's leverage with Pyongyang.
Wen Jiabao, China's premier, had publicly urged China a week before the launch to desist from such measures, only to be rebuffed. "China has already lost face," the commentator said. "Once the damage has been done, if we complain further we would be openly breaking with them and lose all leverage."
In the aftermath of the tests, just as for years beforehand, regional powers singled out Beijing to do more to control Pyongyang and force it back to the negotiating table on its nuclear programme.
China provides much of North Korea's oil and also food aid, but this week's events are further evidence that economic support for its neighbour does not translate into political clout.
"North Korea's policy is independent. No one can tell it what to do, not even China," said Shen Dingli, an international relations expert at Fudan University in Shanghai.
He said Pyongyang's message to the international community, especially the US, was to deal with it directly "if you don't want to see even more shocking developments".
As for the prospect of retaliation, Pyongyang had calculated before the launch that it could withstand any sanctions taken in response to the tests.
While frustrated with its neighbour, China has consistently argued that a hostile policy pursued by the US is also to blame for Pyongyang's aggressive recalcitrance on the nuclear issue. Writing in a Shanghai newspaper yesterday, Ye Hailin, a researcher at a state think-tank, said: "The US is taking advantage of the missile crisis to disturb the reconciliation between North and South Korea . . . During the crisis over the last 10 days, the US and Japan have failed to produce any convincing information to back up their accusations against North Korea."
North Korea's typically bellicose political posture belies what seems to be a greater willingness on its part at the moment to open its economy, something that China has been quietly and, once again, largely unsuccessfully pressing it to do for two decades.
In recent weeks alone, Beijing and Pyongyang have agreed to search jointly for oil in the Yellow Sea and have extended their co-operation to develop ports on North Korea's east coast to service China's landlocked north-east.
Bilateral trade, which is already rising at a healthy clip, should be bolstered by an upgrading of the rail link between the two countries. "There are all sorts of things under discussion and some are actually happening," said Paul French, a Shanghai-based consultant. "They seem very happy to do more with China."
China has long offered itself as a model for North Korea of economic liberalisation in a single-party state, inviting Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader, to visit Shenzhen, China's pioneering economic entrep?t, as early as 1983. Because of its closeness to North Korea, the Chinese leadership perhaps realises more than others what a tough nut Pyongyang will be to crack.
“中国对朝鲜影响力有限”
在
朝鲜于当地时间周三凌晨试射了多枚导弹后不久，美国、日本和其它国家立即表示谴责，并就采取报复行动展开磋商。
然而，与朝鲜毗邻的中国，却尴尬地沉默了大约12个小时，才在晚上发表了一份言辞谨慎的简短声明，表示对事态“严重关切”，呼吁有关各方保持冷静。
一位要求不透露姓名的中国评论人士表示，此次导弹试射突显了中国“预防外交”的失败，以及北京对平壤影响力的局限。
中国国务院总理温家宝在试射前一周公开敦促朝鲜不要试射导弹，但未被理睬。“中国已经丢了脸面。”这位评论人士称。“既然损害已经造成，如果我们再抱怨，就会公开与朝鲜决裂，并丧失全部影响力。”
在试射之后，就像多年前一样，亚太国家敦促中国政府采取更多措施管束平壤，迫使其回到针对朝鲜核计划的谈判桌上。
朝鲜的石油大部分是由中国提供的，中国还向朝鲜提供粮食援助，但本周的事件进一步证明，中国对这个邻国的经济支援，并未转化成政治影响力。
上海复旦大学国际关系专家沈丁立表示：“朝鲜的政策是独立的。没有人能告诉它该做什么，即便是中国也不行。”
他表示，朝鲜政府向国际社会（特别是美国）发出的讯息是：“如果不想看到更惊人的事态发展”，就直接和它打交道。
对于可能遭到报复的问题，朝鲜政府在试射之前就已盘算，它能顶住因试射而受到的任何制裁。
尽管对邻国感到失望，但中国坚称，对于平壤在核问题上的顽固对抗，美国采取的敌意政策也有责任。中国社会科学院(CASS)学者叶海林昨日在上海一家报纸上发表文章称：“美国在利用导弹危机干扰朝韩和解……在十几天的危机之中，美国和日本没有提供任何确切的情报证明对朝鲜的指控。”
朝鲜的典型的好斗政治姿态，与其自身目前开放本国经济的更大意愿形成对比。20年来，中国一直在私下敦促朝鲜开放本国经济，而这些努力也收效甚微。
就在最近几周，中朝两国政府达成了在黄海共同勘探石油的协议，并扩大了双方的合作，开发朝鲜东海岸的港口，为不靠海的中国东北地区服务。
双边贸易已经走上健康增长的轨道，而连通两国的铁路干线的升级改造，应会进一步推动双边贸易的增长。“（中朝两国）正在讨论各种各样的合作事宜，其中一些实际上已经发生。”上海的一位咨询师保罗?弗伦奇(Paul French)表示。“它们似乎非常乐于与中国进行更多合作。”
长期以来，在一党制国家推行改革开放方面，中国一直将自己作为朝鲜的榜样，早在1983年，就曾邀请朝鲜领导人金正日(Kim Jong-il)访问经济特区深圳。与朝鲜接近的中国领导层，可能比其它人更清楚，平壤是一块多么难以敲开的顽石
