China's Stock Rally Stirs Investor Appetite for Data
SHANGHAI -- Call it a bull run in the dark.
While there has been a stampede out of emerging markets in the past week, China's stock markets have held close to their highest levels in two years. It is the latest evidence that China's investors take their cues from events close to home.
This year's surge has been prompted by Beijing's steps to fix problems that have tripped up China's stock markets for the past four years. So far in 2006, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is up 37% amid some of the heaviest trading volumes. The rise has been triggered partly by news, made official Thursday, that China will allow initial public offerings of shares for the first time in a year.
How the market might move next, analysts won't say. Really, they can't say.
Traditionally wary of independent prognosticators, the ruling Communist Party has discouraged stock-market predictions since trading began in China 16 years ago. As a result, brokerage analysts and mutual-fund managers peddle bland advice unlikely to cause ripples -- or damage their reputations.
Globally, emerging markets have been hit by concerns of further increases in U.S. interest rates and declines in the dollar. Those factors register less in the domestic-driven markets of China, where the drop so far this week of 4.1% in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is tempered by gains of 3.2% on average in each of the past nine weeks.
Most other Asian markets have done worse, pulling indexes to multimonth lows. The Korea Stock Price Index, or Kospi, is off 5.6% so far this week at a six-month low; while the Stock Exchange of Thailand index has fallen to December levels with a decline of 6.1% this week and the Singapore Straits Times Index is back to January levels with its 3.6% drop this week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has fallen 3.8% this week.
Interpreting market events is tough for China's investors. Personal finance columns in the tightly controlled media are often unsigned views on single stocks, while on-the-air commentators duck the specifics on the big trends by referring instead to historic charts, public opinion polls and financial news from overseas.
"We don't encourage predictions," says Dai Biao, a spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Fuzzy warnings in the country's Securities Law outline fines for anyone "fabricating and disseminating false information that affects securities trading."
The absence of trusted information leaves small investors to sort out trends largely on their own. "There's not an equity culture in China so it's not surprising there's not much financial market analysis catering to individuals," says Jing Ulrich, J.P. Morgan & Co.'s China stocks chairman.
Soon, the information gap in China's markets could become more acute. Coming regulatory changes, including the prospect of heavy fund raising with the first IPOs in a year, could sow extra volatility in the market. On Thursday, a Beijing construction company, China CAMC Engineering Co., said it has approval to offer 60 million shares on the Shenzhen market on June 5. Also, regulators are set to allow investors to "day trade" and use borrowed money to buy stocks starting July 1.
For individuals tempted to jump in now, people like 67-year-old Tao Liangui seem like the best diviners of trends. Mr. Tao sits most trading sessions near the busy new-client desk at an outlet of Shanghai Securities Ltd., and -- for no fee -- shows novice investors how to read stock charts and make smart picks.
Wearing a blue Puma sweat-jacket and perched unceremoniously on the edge of a desk, the gray-haired Mr. Tao dispenses his advice in a baritone voice. With a confident tap on a flickering computer screen, he says after a recent session, "the market closed with a strong rebound so tomorrow should be good." But the retired factory worker isn't employed by any brokerage. He is just another investor.
Few investors can name a prominent Chinese stock analyst. Shang Fulin, the low-profile chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, avoids hot-button issues in his rare speaking engagements.
Wall Street experts aren't much use in China because few have licenses to dispense retail investment advice. No matter how much stock prices on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges rise, their interest is limited by a cap on foreign investment of only 1% of the $530 billion in Chinese market capitalization. Instead, foreigners focus on Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong, where different fundamentals prevail.
So far, Chinese investors have cheered recent overhaul efforts. Over the past year, a program by China's government to make all shares tradable has been accomplished without sparking concern it would dump the huge amounts of stock it owns. Meanwhile, small advances in the yuan's value have stoked investor expectations that a more-liberalized financial system won't destabilize the economy.
The market was certainly due for a bounce. A selloff between 2001 and the middle of last year eroded half the stock market's value. The benchmark Shanghai index ended almost flat on Thursday at 1591.43, giving it a 57% gain from the eight-year-low touched last June. Yet investors are well aware the index remains 29% below its peak five years ago of 2237.49.
Increasingly seduced by this year's gains, individual Chinese are once again crowding into smoky brokerage halls like the Shanghai Securities outlet. With plastic chairs set in front of massive electronic boards that flash red for rising stocks and green for falling ones, the brokerages are set up like off-track-betting parlors for horse races and don't offer clients much research. Instead, investors, who applied for 200,000 new accounts in April, stand two and three deep at terminals that allow them to chart stock movement, swap advice and input trades themselves.
Informal bull sessions form around fast-talking Mr. Tao. A woman in a red blouse taps his shoulder in agreement as Mr. Tao recommends she hold onto stock she recently bought in a shirt maker. A middle-aged man adjusts his glasses to follow Mr. Tao's commentary on trend lines.
Mr. Tao is also trying to make sense out of China's 1,400 stocks in the absence of professional advice. Aided by a notebook listing his past trades, a pocket calculator and a decade of experience watching the market move, Mr. Tao shrugs off stock talk on TV: "What they say goes in one ear and out the other."
Situ Yuzhen has ducked out of work at an insurance company to ask Mr. Tao how a corporate announcement might affect her holding in a department store. "We're all in the same boat, so he won't cheat me," says Ms. Situ.
Amateur analysts like Mr. Tao can be found in many such brokerage halls around China, which number in the thousands. His latest trading strategy isn't scientific. Mr. Tao puts faith in a glossy calendar torn from an investment magazine last year that he keeps folded in his waist-belt. Certain dates are marked as "pivot points" for China's markets, though the publisher left it up to investors to guess whether the expected market move is up or down. In the current trend, Mr. Tao figures the next one is a likely bullish move. "There will be a good month followed by three falling months," he says.
Until recently, Larry Lang was China's best-known economic gadfly. He appeared on television each Friday night to rail against inequities he saw taking place as China shifted toward a market-based financial system.
His show was canceled just as stocks started to sizzle. Prof. Lang declined to comment, saying by email: "This is not a good time for me to talk about stock markets."
中国股市呼唤“真正”的预测师
对中国股市这波牛市行情之后的走势如何，只能用“一无所知”来形容许多散户投资者的心态。
过去一周，虽然新兴市场纷纷下挫，但中国股市却依然坚守在两年来的高点附近，再次显示出中国股市基本不受外部因素的影响。
中国股市今年以来的上涨行情与中国政府推进股权分置改革、解决困扰股市长达四年之久的国有股流通问题有关。今年以来，上证综合指数的累计涨幅达37%，并在一些交易日创出了“天量”。此外，中国准备在时隔一年之后重新启动新股发行的消息也起到了推波助澜的作用。
至于股市接下来的走势如何，分析师不会发表见解。实际上，他们也不能去预测。
由于历来对独立的股市评论员心存疑虑，中国政府自16年前中国股市诞生以来就一直不鼓励对股市走势做出预测。因此，证券公司的分析师和共同基金经理只能发表一些无关痛痒、不会损害自己名声的看法。
此时的新兴市场正纷纷下挫，受投资者担心美国进一步加息和美元继续下跌的拖累。但这些因素似乎对中国股市没什么影响，上证综合指数本周前四个交易日累计下跌了4.1%，但过去9周每周的平均涨幅为3.2%。
亚洲其他股市的表现更加糟糕，普遍创出数月来的低点。韩国综合指数(Kospi)本周目前为止累计下跌了5.6%，跌至6个月低点；泰国证交所指数已经跌破去年12月时的点位，本周目前为止累计下跌了6.1%；新加坡海峡时报指数跌回到1月份时的水平，本周目前为止累计下跌了3.6%；香港恒生指数本周目前为止累计下跌了3.8%。
解读市场事件对于中国投资者来说尤为不易。在严格监管的媒体环境下，个人理财专栏发表的往往是未署名人士针对一些具体个股的观点，而电台电视的评论员则对大市走势闭口不谈，说的只是历史走势、公众意见调查和海外金融消息。
中国证监会(China Securities Regulatory Commission)媒体联络人戴彪表示，我们不鼓励分析师发表预测。中国证券法有一条含混的规定，称如果某人捏造并散布了影响证券交易的虚假信息，将面临罚款处罚。
可靠信息的缺乏导致许多散户投资者只能自行研判大市的走向。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan & Co.)中国证券市场部主席李晶(Jing Ulrich)表示，中国目前还没有形成股市文化，因此，缺乏迎合散户投资者的金融市场分析不足为奇。
中国股市这种信息空白的现象不久后会变得更加严重。因为届时监管举措的调整，如股市即将重新开启大规模的融资活动，将加剧市场的波动。周四，中工国际工程股份有限公司(China CAMC Engineering Co.)表示，该公司于6月5日发行6,000万股股票的计划已经得到监管机构批准。此外，监管机构还准备从7月1日起允许投资者进行“即日买卖”（即T+0回转交易制度），并允许投资者用借贷资金炒股。
对于那些刚刚涉足股市的散户投资者而言，67岁的陶连贵这样的资深投资者就是他们心目中最棒的“分析师”。每个交易日的大部分时间里，陶连贵都坐在上海证券公司(Shanghai Securities)新开户柜台附近，免费向新开户的投资者提供如何解读股市图表、选择正确个股这类信息。
身著蓝色彪马T恤、一头灰发的陶连贵用他特有的男中音面对听众们侃侃而谈。他一边用手指著不停闪烁的电脑屏幕一边说到，“今天收盘强劲反弹说明明天的走势应该不错”。实际上，陶连贵并不是就职于证券公司的分析师，他只是工厂退休职工，也是众多散户中的一份子。
要是评选中国股市声望卓著的分析师，恐怕没有多少投资者能够说得上来。在为数不多的几次接受采访时，做事向来低调的中国证监会主席尚福林也对一些热点问题避而不答。
华尔街的专家们在中国也没有多大用武之地，因为没有几个人拿到了在中国发表散户投资建议的从业资格证书。不论中国股市的涨幅有多大，受到监管限制的外资在市值为5,300亿美元中国股市中的投资比例也只有区区的1%。外国投资者把主要精力放在了在香港上市的中国股票上。
目前为止，中国投资者对监管部门前期的一些改革措施感到满意。过去一年中，中国政府在推进股权分置改革的过程中成功地做到了没有激起市场对大量新股上市的恐慌。与此同时，人民币的小幅升值也让投资者认为进一步开放金融体系不会动摇国民经济的根基。
中国股市也确实该迎来反弹行情了。2001年至去年年中的熊市行情导致中国股市的市值蒸发了一半。上证综合指数周四收于1591.43点，与前日收盘点位基本持平，比去年6月的8年低点高出57%，但与5年前的高点2237.49点相比，还有29%的差距。
在今年上涨行情的诱惑下，中国的散户投资者再次涌向券商的大厅里面。这是券商大厅里常见的一幕：一排排塑料椅子摆放在大型电子公告牌前面，闪著红光的个股说明涨了，闪著绿光的说明跌了。这一情景颇像是在赌马操作室，而不是在经纪公司。而且，这些券商也不怎么向客户提供分析研究。散户投资者则三三两两地站在接收终端附近，察看股票行情，相互交换自己的“高见”，并在这里下单。
就在快言快语的老陶对大市发表看涨言论的时候，一个身穿红色上衣的妇女走过来拍了拍老陶的肩膀，对他的建议表示赞许。不久前，这名妇女买进了一只衬衫制造商的股票，老陶就建议她持股观望。一名中年男子也扶了扶眼镜，仔细倾听著老陶对趋势线发表的高谈阔论。
虽然缺乏专业建议，但这并不妨害老陶自己分析中国股市。老陶有自己的独门武器：一个记载著他过去交易记录的笔记本，一个小计算器，还有过去10年来观察股市波动的丰富经验。对于股评人士在电视上的见解，老陶根本不屑一顾。用他的话说就是：“对于他们说的话，我是一耳朵听一耳朵出。”
司徒玉珍就是老陶的“信徒”之一，她辞去了保险公司的工作投身股市。她曾就一项上市公司声明对她持有的百货商店股票有何影响求教过老陶。她说，我们都在同一条船上，老陶不会蒙我。
在中国数千家券商的大厅里，像老陶这类业余分析师随处可见。其实，他的投资策略并不能算是科学的。他把一份日历从去年的一本投资杂志上撕下来，珍藏在腰包里面，并对这个日历深信不疑。这个日历对某些日期做出了特殊的标注，因为在这些日子里中国股市曾上演过重要的行情。但这本杂志把预测市场是涨是跌的重任还是留给了投资者。根据目前的趋势，老陶认为市场接下来可能走出一波上涨行情。他的理论依据是：市场连续下跌三个月之后，就会迎来一个月的上涨行情。
直到不久之前，郎咸平一直都是批判中国经济现状的最知名经济学家。他在每周五晚间的电视节目中都要对中国经济转轨过程中的种种不公正现象抨击一番。
中国股市开始大涨之后，他的节目就被取消了。郎教授拒绝接受记者的采访，只是用电子邮件回复说，眼下这个时候他并不适宜谈论股市。
