胡锦涛主席访美专题报道

中国力促美国撤销对中国企业制裁
China pushes for lifting of US sanctions over weapons proliferation

China's relationship with Iran's defence industry is under the spotlight in Washington this week with at least one conglomerate sending a delegation with President Hu Jintao to lobby the US to lift its sanctions against Chinese companies allegedly involved in weapons proliferation.


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State-owned China North Industries Corporation (Norinco) was singled out by the Bush administration in 2003 for the most punitive US sanctions against a Chinese company for its alleged aid to Iran's ballistic missile programme.

All exports by Norinco and its subsidiaries to the US, believed to run into hundreds of millions of dollars, were banned. The measures raised a storm shortly before President George W. Bush met Mr Hu in Europe.

Since then, however, pressure by China and lobbying by US customers for a range of Norinco products - from optical fibre to hunting rifles - led to a removal of the import ban last year.

But the US kept sanctions on Norinco under theIran Non-Proliferation Act. Norinco and five other Chinese companies were barred in December from receiving US government contracts or assistance, or engaging in military trade or receiving sensitive US exports.

US officials describe a difficult balance in penalising Chinese companies for helping Iran's military industry, while at the same time seeking China's support for international sanctions aimed at curbing the Islamic republic's nuclear programme.

Chinese companies are the most widely penalised by the US in connection with weapons proliferation. The Arms Control Association, an independent information group, says the Bush administration has imposed proliferation sanctions 134 times against 81 foreign entities. Of these, 33 Chinese entities account for 68 of the sanctions. North Korea is the next leading offender.

The issue is dogging China as it seeks respectability on the international stage. In 2004 it was allowed into the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which sets guidelines for the transfer of nuclear technology. But the US and others have denied it entry into the Missile Technology Control Regime, a grouping that acts to restrain missile exports.

"Norinco is the poster child for serial proliferators," said Wade Boese, research director of the Arms Control Association, referring to its missile activities.

However, he said China had dramatically improved its behaviour on the nuclear side. Norinco denies aiding Iran's missile programme.

Asked about the Norinco delegation in Washington, an assistant to the company's president, Zhang Guoqing, said: "I don't know about this matter, but if things are as you say then it would be very secret. I suggest you do not ask any more questions."

Norinco's vice-president, He Xiadong, is due to address the American Bar Association tomorrow on how Norinco adheres to China's export controls.

Norinco's business with Iran includes development of the Tehran subway. Some US analysts suggest its trade with Iran is worth more than its business in the US.
中国力促美国撤销对中国企业制裁

中国与伊朗国防工业之间的关系成为本周华盛顿的焦点。至少有一家中国企业集团派出代表团，随同国家主席胡锦涛出访，以游说美国政府取消对涉嫌武器扩散的中国企业的制裁。

国有的中国北方工业公司(Norinco)在2003年被布什政府列入美国对中国企业惩罚最重的制裁名单中，因为该公司被指为伊朗弹道导弹计划提供帮助。

中国北方工业公司及下属企业对美国的所有出口都遭到禁止，据信这些出口的总价值达数亿美元。美国政府的举措立即掀起了一场风暴，当时正值布什与胡锦涛在欧洲会面前夕。


不过此后，由于中国方面的压力，以及美国客户针对一系列中国北方工业公司产品（从光导纤维到猎枪）的游说努力，美国政府于去年取消了进口禁令。

世贸组织敦促中国调整贸易政策
WTO Urges New Policies in China

Agency says reducing
exporter incentives
may ease imbalance

BEIJING -- The World Trade Organization, in its first formal review of China's trade policies, said the country should trim back the tax and investment concessions that have helped it become a global manufacturing powerhouse.

Encouraging less export-driven manufacturing, and more services aimed at the domestic market, would help alleviate some of the imbalances in China's rapidly growing economy and provide more jobs for its millions of displaced farmers, the WTO said in a report issued yesterday. The group periodically reviews the practices of its members, a process that will give China's trading partners a chance to raise their concerns in two days of talks in Geneva this week.

Such a policy shift could help China narrow its yawning trade surplus, and reduce friction with the U.S. and Europe, where many manufacturers complain their products are being squeezed out of the market by low-priced Chinese goods. The U.S.'s trade deficit with China, which totaled $202 billion last year by Washington's calculations, is expected to be high on the agenda during Chinese President Hu Jintao's meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush in Washington today.

China offers significant tax breaks to many foreign companies doing business in the country, with exporters and investors in certain favored industries usually getting the best treatment. Such preferential treatment runs "the risk of subsidizing good investments, which might have been undertaken in any event, or turning bad investments into profitable ones," the WTO report said. Given the expansion in China's export-oriented manufacturing in recent years, the WTO said, "the government might usefully reappraise its broad economic-development strategy" to focus its policies more on service sectors like retailing and transportation.

In its own submission to the WTO talks this week, China didn't commit to any specific changes but said its goal is "to maintain a general balance of imports and exports" -- not to run a large trade surplus. According to Chinese official figures, the country's overall trade surplus nearly tripled to $102 billion in 2005, though it ran large deficits with some countries, including Japan and South Korea.

Central-bank Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said in March that the government is already pursuing policies aimed at reducing the surplus, and expects to reach "an approximate trade balance" in two to three years. Those policies include opening markets to more imports and making the exchange rate more flexible, he said in a speech.

Manufacturers typically cite China's low labor costs, good infrastructure and large domestic market as its main draws. Many say a scaling back of tax concessions wouldn't have a major effect on the country's attractiveness to business.

"It's a natural economic phenomenon that China takes over as manufacturer. I'm not sure it's something that needs to be fixed," said Lee Sands, a former U.S. trade negotiator now working in Beijing with consulting firm Sierra Asia Partners. "American companies are manufacturing here and doing really well."
世贸组织敦促中国调整贸易政策



世界贸易组织(WTO)在对中国贸易政策的首次正式评估中称，税收优惠以及在投资方面的鼓励措施让中国成为了全球制造工厂，但中国现在应该减少这类政策。

世界贸易组织在周三发表的报告中称，中国应该鼓励企业减少以出口为目的的生产、提供更多针对国内市场的服务，这将有助于缓解中国在高速增长过程中产生的失衡问题，为数百万背井离乡的农民带来更多就业机会。

WTO定期审查其成员国的政策执行状况，这份报告将为中国的贸易伙伴国提供一个在本周日内瓦举行的为期两天的会议上倾诉忧虑的机会。

WTO建议的政策转变有望帮助中国缩小日益膨胀的贸易顺差，缓解中国与欧美的贸易摩擦。欧美制造商正在高声抱怨，他们的产品被廉价的中国产品挤出了市场。据美国政府统计，美国对中国的贸易逆差去年达到了2,020亿美元，该问题也将成为本周四中国国家主席胡锦涛在美国会晤美国总统布什(George W. Bush)期间的重要议题。

中国对很多在华外资企业提供税收减免，部分重点发展领域的出口商和投资者往往能享受最优惠待遇。世界贸易组织称，这些特殊政策隐含著风险，本来在任何情况下都应该发生的优质投资享受了补贴，而劣质投资则有可能被扶植成赢利项目。鉴于中国近几年在出口制造领域的增长，WTO表示，“中国政府也许有必要重新审议全面经济发展战略，”将更多的注意力转向零售和交通等服务行业。

中国在本周递交给WTO的陈述中未承诺任何特别的政策变动，但表示，中国的目标是“保持进出口的总体平衡”──而不是大额贸易顺差。根据中国官方数据，中国2005年总体贸易顺差增长近两倍，达到1,020亿美元，但对日本、韩国等一些贸易伙伴仍存在大额贸易逆差。

中国央行行长周小川3月份曾表示，政府已经采取了旨在降低贸易顺差的种种措施，预计两到三年内基本实现贸易平衡。他在讲话中表示，这些政策包括进一步打开进口市场，增强汇率的灵活性等。

制造商普遍将中国视为人力成本低廉、基础设施良好、市场广阔的投资宝地。很多制造商表示，取消税收优惠不会对中国的商业吸引力造成重大影响。

“中国被看作制造基地是一种正常经济现象。我并不认为有什么需要改变的，”美国前贸易谈判代表、现就职于咨询公司Sierra Asia Partners北京办事处的Lee Sands称。“很多美国企业在这里从事制造业，经营得很好。”

中国经济增长继续加速 人民币升值压力陡增

Rapid Economic Growth at Home Adds to Heat on Hu to Adjust Yuan

BEIJING -- Adding to U.S. pressure on President Hu Jintao to let the yuan appreciate, China's growth at home is surging so quickly it risks overheating.

Driven by exports and rapid development, China's economic growth raced ahead by 10.2% in the first three months of this year, even faster than the blistering 9.9% pace registered for all of 2005.

The speed appears to have taken Mr. Hu by surprise. "We do not want, nor are we pursuing, over-rapid economic growth," he said Sunday. But it is getting harder for Beijing to hold the line as its trade surplus hits record highs and sucks in vast amounts of cash.

China's trade surplus swelled to $12 billion for the first two months of the year, up from $10.8 billion a year earlier. Isaac Meng, an economist at BNP Paribas in Beijing, said he expects China's surplus to hit $130 billion this year, $28 billion more than last year's record.


China spurns arguments by U.S. politicians that its massive trade surplus with the U.S. -- $202 billion last year, by Washington's calculations -- is the result of a steeply undervalued yuan. Since it raised the value of the yuan by 2.1% against the U.S. dollar last July, China has allowed the currency to gain only 1% or so more.

Yesterday in Seattle, Mr. Hu reiterated a pledge to gradually liberalize China's currency policy, but reaffirmed his commitment to keep its exchange rate "basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level" -- underlining a reluctance to move too precipitously on currency policy. (See related article.)

Still, the exchange-rate issue is likely to be high on the agenda during Mr. Hu's meeting with President Bush today. While few expect Beijing to engineer another one-off currency revaluation, there are increasing expectations that Chinese policy makers -- seeking to cool the economy at home -- could allow a faster pace of appreciation for the rest of this year.

Many Western economists agree with Beijing that further appreciation of the yuan wouldn't itself do much to improve the U.S. trade deficit. But some also say a powerful argument may be building to allow for a stronger yuan given the growth of China's economy. A stronger yuan could help slow the influx of currency into the country, both by making Chinese assets more expensive for foreign investors and by making Chinese exports less desirable to foreign buyers.

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Signs of possible overheating are everywhere here. Investment in factories, highways and other fixed assets jumped 27.7% in the first three months of this year over the same period a year earlier, according to state media. The broadest measure of money supply grew 18.8% in March from a year earlier, higher than the official 16% target.

Easy bank credit is flowing again after more than a year of austerity. Commercial banks already have dished out more than half their targeted loan total for the full year. Funds are so plentiful that banks are cutting loan rates as they scramble for new business.

"Banks are chasing us to lend money," said Chen Tongkao, chairman of Zhejiang Dongfang Shipbuilding Co. Mr. Chen said that last month the company secured a 200 million yuan ($25 million) loan from state-owned Agricultural Bank of China at 5% interest, a discount over the official "guidance rate" of 5.58% for a one-year loan. The money will go toward building an 800 million yuan production line to make oil and chemical tanks for export.

Increasingly, the concern is that China is drawing in so much cash that it will spur inflation. Economists say the flood could feed an investment bubble, raising the risk of bad bank loans and wasteful investment. If such a bubble popped, it could mean massive overcapacity that leads to collapsing prices and industrial bankruptcies -- which has happened to China in the past, most notably in the mid-90s.

A downturn likely would ricochet throughout U.S. and other Western businesses because they are invested in China to an unprecedented degree. Also vulnerable: a slew of venture capital and private equity investors who could see their record-setting investments collapse if there were a sudden turn in the economy, similar to the popping of the U.S. Internet bubble early this decade.

The best gauge of the problem facing Mr. Hu may be the buildup of China's foreign-exchange reserves, the currency reserves held by the central bank. These grew by $21.4 billion in March to reach $875.1 billion, making them the largest in the world. Before long, the reserves are likely to exceed $1 trillion -- almost half the size of the Chinese economy.

The reserves are so bloated because of Chinese central bank intervention to prevent the yuan from strengthening too quickly. The bank buys dollars as they flood in from exports, investments and speculative "hot money," and sells yuan. The resulting glut of yuan suppresses its value but also floods the economy with liquidity. Authorities try to mop up the excess cash by issuing yuan-denominated bonds that are bought by banks.

Still, with cash-rich banks rushing to lend as the reserves swell, there's a danger of a new investment bubble, inflation and an increase in the amount of bad loans. Last week, Premier Wen Jiabao held a cabinet meeting and called for "comprehensive measures to solve the problem of fast growth in bank lending," according to a report posted on the Chinese central bank's Web site.


Elsewhere in the world, central banks might consider raising interest rates to deter borrowing. But in China, higher rates could add to the problem by sucking in more "hot money" betting that Beijing will have to relent and allow the yuan to rise faster. Such flows have picked up again this year after tailing off last year, economists say.

Economists say they believe Chinese leaders are anxious to avoid hitting the brakes on growth this time. China is still exporting excess production built up during the previous investment boom, and killing domestic demand would likely unleash yet another wave of exports, adding to the country's already bloated trade surpluses.

Instead, Beijing also has been hoping to ease the economy's dependence on exports and investment by refocusing growth toward domestic consumption. A few weeks ago, Premier Wen unveiled a domestic stimulus program, including measures to abolish an agricultural tax, boost infrastructure spending and increase government investment in the country's health and education systems.

The central bank also is trying to reverse the huge currency inflows. Last week, it announced measures to allow Chinese individuals and ordinary companies to invest in overseas shares and bonds for the first time. Also, the bank said individuals will be able to exchange Chinese yuan for as much as $20,000 each year, up from $8,000. Companies involved in trade will be given more freedom to buy foreign currency.

Up to now, China has imposed severe restrictions on the use of foreign exchange. It is miserly with the amounts it allows students to take overseas, and even getting dollars to pay for a visa can be a hassle. Smaller companies trying to get foreign currency to purchase imports often run into a tangle of bureaucracy.

In relaxing its foreign-exchange policies, economists say, the government wants to hold less foreign exchange, and have companies and individuals hold more. But over the longer run, they say, demand for dollars to invest overseas could depress the value of the yuan relative to the U.S. currency.

Even in the short term, the relaxation moves are not likely to substantially shrink China's reserves, which are growing at a pace of some $200 billion each year, says Calla Wiemer, a China expert at the National University of Singapore. "That means pressure to appreciate [the yuan] will continue," she said.
中国经济增长继续加速 人民币升值压力陡增

就在美国人向胡锦涛施压要求中国允许人民币升值之际，中国经济的快速增长正使经济过热的风险再次凸显，令人民币升值的压力陡然增加。

受出口和投资领域的推动，今年以来中国经济在去年全年增长9.9%的基础上继续加速，头三个月国内生产总值增幅达10.2%。

这一速度似乎让胡锦涛也感到意外。周日他表示：我们不希望、也不会追求经济过快增长。但随著贸易顺差达到历史高点并吸引大量资金涌入境内，北京要控制住局面的难度越来越大了。

今年头两个月，中国外贸顺差从去年同期的108亿美元增至120亿美元。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)驻北京经济学家Isaac Meng表示，预计今年中国贸易顺差将达到1,300亿美元，较去年多出280亿美元。

美国政界人士认为，美中之间巨大的贸易逆差（据美国的统计数字，去年其对华贸易逆差是2,020亿美元）是人民币汇率严重低估造成的，对这种看法中国很不以为然。自去年7月中国将人民币汇率上调2.1%至今，人民币汇率仅上升了1%左右。

胡锦涛昨天在西雅图重申，将逐步开放外汇政策，但强调将保持人民币汇率“在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定”，这充分表明中国仍不愿在汇率政策上过快作出调整。

不过，汇率问题可能仍会是胡锦涛与布什今天举行会谈时的一个重要话题。几乎没有人认为中国还会一次性地上调人民币汇率，但越来越多的人相信，今年余下时间里，为给国内经济降温，中国政府可能会允许人民币加快升值速度。

许多西方经济学家同意北京的一个看法，即单纯上调人民币汇率本身并不能改善美国的贸易逆差。但一些人也表示，鉴于中国目前强劲的经济增长态势，人民币升值的理由已很充分。人民币走强将有助于抑制资金流入，因为升值后对外国投资者而言中国的资产价格将上涨，中国出口商品的价格优势也会减弱。

在中国，经济过热的迹象随处可见。据中国官方统计数字，今年前三个月，中国的工业、道路和其他固定资产投资较去年同期增长了27.7%，三月份，广义货币供应量较上年同期增长18.8%，高于16%的计划目标。

在一年多的宏观调控之后，银行信贷重新松动。商业银行贷款额目前已超过全年贷款总额目标的一半。由于资金充裕，各家银行为招揽业务纷纷下调贷款利率。

浙江东方造船公司(Zhejiang Dongfang Shipbuilding Co.)董事长陈通考说，上个月，公司从中国农业银行获得了2亿元人民币（合2,500万美元）贷款，利率是5%，而官方一年期贷款指导利率是5.58%。这笔资金将用于建造一条总造价8亿元的油品和化工品储罐生产线。

人们越来越感到担心的是，中国吸引了那么多的资金，极有可能引发通货膨胀。经济学家说，大量资金可能加剧投资泡沫，加剧不良贷款和无效投资的风险。如果泡沫破灭，有可能导致大量产能过剩、进而引发价格暴跌、工厂倒闭。这种情形中国过去曾发生过，九十年代中期的那波最严重。

这样，美国和其他西方国家的企业就会纷纷遭受打击，因为他们对中国的投资力度达到了前所未有的程度。不堪一击的还有：一系列风险投资及私人资本运营公司。如果经济形势突然逆转，他们就会目睹惊人的投资崩溃，像十年前美国互联网泡沫破灭时那样。

衡量问题难度的最佳指标恐怕就是中国日渐增长的外汇储备了。今年3月份，中国外汇储备增加214亿美元，总额达到8,751亿美元，位居全球之冠。要不了多久，中国的外汇储备就能突破1万亿美元，几乎是中国经济规模的一半。

中国央行干预汇市以防人民币汇率过快走高，也是中国外汇储备膨胀的原因之一。出口商赚取的美元、投资性美元以及投机性“热钱”纷纷涌入市场，央行只好大量买入，并抛售人民币。由此产生的大量货币不但抑制了人民币币值，也让经济体系中充斥了大量流动资金。为了吸收这些过剩资金，监管机构不断发行人民币债券，由各商业银行购买。

不过，商业银行手上的现金也很多，急于拆借出去。这样就酝酿了产生新的投资泡沫、通货膨胀和坏账增加的风险。央行网站上张贴的一则报道称，中国总理温家宝上周召开国务院会议，呼吁采取全面措施解决银行信贷迅速增长的难题。

若在世界其他国家，这时央行可能会考虑加息来抑制信贷膨胀。但在中国，利率上调会让问题更加严重，更多“热钱”会闻风而入，押宝中国将不得不重估人民币汇率，允许人民币更快升值。经济学家们说，这类资金去年略有回落之后，今年又卷土重来。

经济学家们表示，相信中国领导人也渴望这次能避免经济增长急刹车的做法。中国仍在向外出口上一次经济投资过热期间积累起来的各类产品，如果抑制了国内需求，就很可能会激发又一轮出口热潮，让本来就高高在上的中国贸易顺差继续向上攀升。

其实，中国政府一直在努力减少经济对出口和投资的依赖，将重点调整到国内消费领域上来。几周前，温家宝公布了一项国内市场刺激方案，包括取消农业税、提高基建开支、增加政府对全国卫生和教育系统的投资。

央行也在积极努力扭转资金大量涌入的势头。上周，央行宣布了几项措施，首次允许居民个人和普通公司投资海外股市和债市。此外，央行还表示，居民每年可兑换美元上限从此前的8,000美元上调至20,000美元。贸易公司购汇方面也将获得更大自由。

到目前为止，中国一直严格管制外汇使用途径。学生海外求学只允许携带很少的外汇，即使为支付签证费用兑换美元也很麻烦。试图得到外汇购买进口商品的小型公司往往会遭遇大量繁文缛节。

经济学家们认为，政府希望通过放松外汇管理政策将部分外汇储备分流到公司和居民手中。但从长期来看，投资海外引发的美元需求会压低人民币兑美元汇率。

但新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)中国问题专家威尔默(Calla Wiemer)说，即使在短期内，这些放松外汇管制的举措也不太可能显著降低中国每年增幅高达约2,000亿美元的庞大外汇储备。这就意味著，人民币升值压力会继续存在。

华盛顿应该与北京“好好谈”
Washington should try to woo Hu rather than boo Hu

If America's angst about globalisation could be reduced to one word it would be "China". Walk around a Wal-Mart superstore and every other product is made in China. Ask why Americans are so jittery about their job security - despite having near full employment - and most give the same answer.


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The data bear out many of these fears. China's $202bn (￡115bn) trade surplus with the US accounted for 27 per cent of America's current account deficit in the past year, up from 18 per cent in 2000. China's heavy intervention in the currency markets to stem the rise of the renminbi against the dollar is almost as widely cited on Main Street as Wall Street. When China's reserves hit a trillion dollars ($1,000bn) later this year, late night talk shows will probably cite that number in their jokes.

So it is unsurprising that Capitol Hill, which faces mid-term elections in November, is threatening retaliatory measures against Chinese exports unless Beijing acts to reduce its growing trade surplus. The rising climate of Chinaphobia also promises interesting moments for Hu Jintao, China's president, when he visits the US next week.

But the steps under consideration by Congress, which include a punitive27.5 per cent tariff on Chinese imports unless it sharply revalues its currency, would probably not achieve their intended results. As pointed out in China: The Balance Sheet - a timely book published this week by two leading Washington think-tanks - most of China's exports to the US originate from other low-cost economies. China is the final point of assembly. Almost two-thirds of China's exports to the US have an import component.

If Mr Hu were to accede to Washington's demands, China's revaluation would simply divert America's deficit to other Asian exporters. To stand any chance of denting the deficit andpreserving China's competitiveness, there should be a broad-based currency realignment incorporating Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Even then, a 20 per cent co-ordinated appreciation would only reduce America's deficit by about 10 per cent, according to the authors.

The more closely the problem isdissected, the more distant a practical solution becomes. At its root is the fact that America's net domestic savings rate is hovering at just above 1 per cent of gross domestic product while China's is above 40 per cent. In short, America consumes more than it produces and China produces more than it consumes.

In the absence of counter-balancing Chinese measures, any action by the US to raise its domestic savings - by cutting its budget deficit, for example - would risk a US recession.

Meanwhile, embarking on mutually balancing steps, in which China imported more US goods to ease the corresponding reduction in US demand, would only work if it were sustained and far-reaching.

Leaving aside the irony that a Republican administration is urging higher welfare payments on a communist government, China, in any case, would need to create a social safety net to assuage growing inequality.

But it is one thing to recommend that China boost domestic demand by raising social spending. It is quite another to expect China will easily be persuaded to take the huge dollar losses that would result from a sharp revaluation of the renminbi.

Likewise, Washington has legitimate concerns that an abrupt dollar depreciation could pop the US housing bubble. Rising home prices have underpinned America's robust levels of domestic consumption, which in turn have sustained economic growth.

Against this, the authors have some reassuring insights. They dispute, for example, the widespread view that US interest rates would shoot upwards if China sold off a large chunk of its Treasury bonds. They estimate the net impact of Chinese dollar purchases on US long-bond yields at only 25 basis points.

They also remind us what happened the last time America got steamed up about unfair competition during the phase of "Japanic" in the late 1980s. Since 1994, Japan's share of world manufacturing has fallen from 24 to 21 per cent while that of the US has stayed constant at 24 per cent.

That US protectionists cried wolf before does not mean they are wrong about China on all points. But as this book persuasively argues, it is in America's interests to coax rather than confront China. The two share a strong interest in reducing global imbalances together in an orderly and calm fashion. Meanwhile, American job insecurity can more squarely be blamed on the country's underperforming high schools. But Mr Hu cannot be expected to have an opinion on everything.
华盛顿应该与北京“好好谈”

假
如美国对全球化的焦虑可以概括为一个词的话，这个词就是“中国”。在沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)，两件商品中就有一件是中国制造。美国人几乎充分就业，但还是担心饭碗不保，究其原因，还是“中国”。

数据证实了许多这样的担心。去年，中国对美贸易顺差为2020亿美元，占美国经常账户赤字的比例，从2000年时的18%升至27%。中国大量干预外汇市场，以阻止人民币对美元升值，这是从普通老百姓到华尔街都普遍提及的观点。今年晚些时候，中国的外汇储备将达1万亿美元，深夜脱口秀或许会在笑话中提到这个数字。


难怪今年11月面临中期选举的美国国会威胁说，除非北京采取行动降低其日益扩大的贸易顺差，否则就要对中国出口采取报复措施。日益浓重的中国恐惧症气氛，意味着在中国国家主席胡锦涛访美期间，会出现一些有意思的场合。

但国会考虑的措施，或许不会达到预期的结果。国会考虑的措施包括，除非中国大幅将人民币升值，否则将对中国对美出口征收27.5%的惩罚关税。本周，华盛顿两大主要智囊出版了一本适时的书――《中国：资产负债表》(China: The Balance Sheet)。正如该书所指出，中国对美国的出口，大多源自其它低成本经济体。中国只是最后的装配地。中国出口美国的商品几乎三分之二都含有进口零部件。

假如胡锦涛答应华盛顿的要求，人民币升值也只不过是把美国的逆差转移到了其它亚洲出口国。若要既削减美国逆差，又保存中国的竞争力，应该进行一次全面的币值调整，把日本、韩国、台湾和香港的货币也纳入其中。据作者表示，即便到那时，20%的协同升值也只会把美国的逆差降低10%左右。

越深入地分析该问题，现实的解决方案就越是遥远。其根源在于这样一个事实：美国国内净储蓄占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例徘徊在略高于1%的水平，而中国则超过40%。简言之，美国消费超过其产出，而中国产出超过其消费。


在中国不采取对应平衡措施的情况下，美国提高国内储蓄的任何行动，如削减预算赤字，都会使其有陷入衰退的风险。

与此同时，采用相互平衡措施，如中国进口更多美国商品，以缓解美国需求相应的下降，那也只有在持续及广泛进口的情况下才会奏效。

撇开共和党执政的白宫敦促一个共产党政府提高福利支出的讽刺意味不说，中国确实需要创建一个社会保障网，以缓解日益严重的不平等。


建议中国提高社会支出以拉动内需是一回事，期望轻易说动中国，让它承担人民币大幅升值导致的巨额美元损失则是另一回事。

同样，华盛顿也有理由担心，美元突然贬值可能令美国住房市场泡沫破裂。住房价格的上涨，支撑了美国强劲的国内消费水平，继而又维持了经济增长。

另一方面，该书的作者有一些让人安心的洞见。例如，他们反驳了被人广为接受的观点：如果中国大量抛售美国国债，美国的利率将急速上升。他们估计，中国购买美元对美国长期国债收益率的净影响只有25个基点。

他们也提醒我们，美国人上一次对不公平竞争发火是什么情况，那是80年代末“恐日”(Japanic)阶段的事情。自1994年以来，日本占全球制造业的份额已从24%降到了21%，而美国所占份额稳定在24%。

美国贸易保护主义者以前喊过“狼来了”，并不意味着他们有关中国的所有观点都是错误的。但正如该书令人信服地指出，劝说(而不是对抗)中国，符合美国的利益。在有序冷静地共同减少全球失衡方面，中美两国有着强大的共同利益。与此同时，美国人在就业方面的不安全感，可以更直接地归咎于美国差强人意的高中教育。但人们不能指望胡锦涛在每件事情上都拿出见解。

美中互动无须“零和”
America and China must build new bridges in business

The first state visit to America by Hu Jintao, Chinese president, next month presents an important opportunity for both countries to establish a more productive path to further mutual interests. With the US as China's second largest trading partner and China as America's third largest our countries are economically intertwined in such a way that we are increasingly dependent on each other's success. Yet notwithstanding the incentives we have to work together, the relationship between the US and China is in need of improvement.


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Throughout the 1990s, the US business community was a forceful advocate for China, especially in supporting its accession in 2001 to the World Trade Organisation - an important milestone in China's rise. But as US businesses continue to encounter restrictions on their access to China's markets and as China's enforcement of intellectual property rights remains weak, the US business community faces challenges in continuing to be an advocate for China.

In response to growing US trade deficits, the senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham have introduced a bill to impose an across-the-board tariff on Chinese imports in an effort to influence China's exchange rate policy. Opponents of the bill believe the renminbi exchange rate should be driven by market dynamics and international monetary co-operation, not by punitive US legislation. But whether one agrees or disagrees with this proposed law, it offers an early warning to Chinese leaders that the US business community is in jeopardy of losing political support for policies that would promote China's economic growth through open trade and investment liberalisation.

In February Rob Portman, US trade representative, issued a review of US-China trade policy, emphasising that "China must play its part in addressing the global imbalances that have arisen during the past four years of rapid global growth". Mr Portman expressed "concern that the US-China trade relationship lacks balance in opportunity, as well as equity and durability".

The time has come to strengthen the constructive relationship between the US and China. China can start by demonstrating its willingness to remove barriers and open markets, enforce protection of intellectual property rights, strengthen its currency and signal its readiness to level the playing field by, for example, joining the WTO agreement on government procurement. China also has a responsibility to play a leadership role in the successful completion of the Doha multilateral trade negotiations, which could help hundreds of millions of people who now try to survive on less than $2 a day.

The business community needs to help the American public understand the importance of our relationship with China. We need to rebut calls for counter???-productive, protectionist measures and support a co-ordinated, comprehensive China policy that addresses key issues and provides for effective communication to the public. That policy should include making the Group of Eight nations the Group of Nine with the addition of China.

Our China policy must be set in the context of a policy for Asia. The need to strengthen relationships and deepen understanding between Asia and the US has never been more vital. Priorities include negotiating and implementing free trade agreements with South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia, and Vietnam's accession to the WTO.

We in the US must also address impediments to American competitiveness, understanding that this issue will not be solved through protectionist legislation. We need, for example, to strengthen our educational infra???-structure to boost student performance and close achievement gaps; increase competencies in subjects such as maths, science and engineering; ensure that our students acquire the skills - including language skills - necessary to succeed in international and intercultural environments; and embed continuous learning in our culture.

This is a big agenda and now is the time for the US and China to move forward. We must make headway on areas of mutual interest, continue a constructive dialogue aimed at removing impasses and improve the relationship. Some critics see China's economic rise as a zero-sum game, where China's gain is our loss. China needs to work with us to prove the critics wrong.

The writer is chairman, president and chief executive officer of The McGraw-Hill Companies, the global information services provider. He is chairman of the International Trade and Investment Taskforce of the Business Roundtable and chairman of the Emergency Committee for American Trade
美中互动无须“零和”


中
国国家主席胡锦涛即将对美国进行的首次国事访问，为两国建立更有成效的途径以增进相互利益提供了重要机会。美国是中国第二大贸易伙伴，中国是美国第三大贸易伙伴，两国在经济上相互交织，越来越依赖彼此的成功。但是，尽管有这些推动合作的激励因素，美中关系仍需要改进。

在整个90年代，美国商界都力挺中国，尤其是在2001年支持中国加入世贸组织，这是中国崛起的重要里程碑。但由于美国企业进入中国市场仍遭限制，且中国执行知识产权不力，美国商界在继续支持中国方面承受挑战。


作为对美国贸易逆差日益扩大的回应，美国参议员查尔斯?舒默(Charles Schumer)和林塞?格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)提出了一项法案，拟对中国进口商品全面征收关税，以期影响中国的汇率政策。该法案的反对者认为，人民币汇率应由市场力量和国际货币合作推动，而不是由惩罚性的美国立法来推动。但不管人们同不同意这项提议的法案，它都给中国领导人提供了一个预警，即美国商界有政策方面有丧失政治支持的危险，而这些政策会通过开放贸易和投资自由化来推动中国的经济增长。


今年2月，美国贸易代表罗布?波特曼(Rob Portman)发表了一份美中贸易政策评论，强调说，“过去4年快速的全球增长产生了全球失衡，中国必须在解决这种失衡方面发挥自身作用”。波特曼表达了“美中贸易关系在机会、公平和持久性方面缺乏平衡的担忧”。


加强美中建设性关系的时候到了。中国首先可以证明它愿意消除壁垒、开放市场、执行知识产权保护、让人民币升值，并表明愿意创造公平竞争环境，如加入政府采购方面的世贸协议。中国也有责任在成功完成多哈(Doha)回合多边贸易谈判过程中发挥领导作用，这可以帮助数亿每天靠不足2美元生存的人民。


商界需要帮助美国公众理解美中关系的重要性。我们需要驳斥那些要求实施适得其反的保护主义措施的呼声，支持协调、完善的对华政策，以解决关键问题并与公众进行有效交流。该政策应该让中国加入八国集团(G8)，使之成为九国集团。



我们的对华政策必须在亚洲政策的背景下制定。加强亚洲和美国之间的关系和相互理解，从来没有像现在这样重要。当务之急包括与韩国、泰国、马来西亚谈判并实施自由贸易协议，也包括越南加入世贸组织。


美国也必须解决妨碍美国竞争力的因素，明白保护主义立法不会解决这个问题。例如，我们必须增强我们的教育基础设施，以提高学生的成绩并缩小成就差距，提高数学、科学和工程等学科的竞争力，保证我们的学生掌握包括语言技能在内的各项技能――这是他们在国际和跨文化环境中取得成功所必需的，并且让终身学习深入我们的文化。


这是个庞大的议程，现在正是推动美中向前迈进的时候。我们必须在相互利益领域取得进展，继续进行旨在打破僵局、改善关系的建设性对话。某些批评人士把中国的经济崛起看成零和游戏，认为中国得益就是我们的损失。中国需要与我们合作，一起证明这些批评人士是错误的。


作者是全球信息服务提供商麦格劳-希尔公司(McGraw-Hill Companies)董事长、总裁兼首席执行官，也是商业圆桌会议(Business Roundtable)国际贸易和投资特派小组主席，美国贸易紧急委员会(Emergency Committee for American Trade)主席。

中美必须合作China and the US need to work together

To judge by the build-up to Hu Jintao's America visit this week, one would be forgiven for thinking the health of US-China relations was measured solely by the renminbi's dollar value.


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On this, President George W. Bush, who usually paints America's choices in black and white, is subtler than some of his critics, having conceded US-China relations are "complex". That characterisation might equally apply to Mr Bush's often contradictory stance towards China since taking office.

The Chinese president will hear plenty of noise this week about the link between China's deliberately undervalued currency and America's widening current account deficit. He should bear in mind that not all the criticisms can be dismissed as populist grandstanding in advance of US mid-term elections. It would also be worthwhile for Mr Hu to recall just how far Mr Bush has travelled in his view of China since 2001.

On coming to office, Mr Bush singled out China as his biggest foreign policy concern. It was branded a "strategic competitor" in a calculated shift from Bill Clinton's hopes of turning Beijing into a "strategic partner". Relations took a dangerous nosedive when the Chinese forced down America's EP3 spyplane in a tense 10-day stand off.

The attacks on the twin towers a few weeks later changed many things, among them Washington's realisation that China's support would be indispensable in helping it defeat Islamist terrorist groups around the world. September 11 also gave Mr Bush more leeway to pump-prime the US economy in a shift that has been at least partly - if inadvertently - responsible for more than doubling America's trade deficit with China to $202bn (�166.8bn) last year.

Partly because of Mr Bush's fiscal unorthodoxy, the US is now lumbered with a current account deficit of more than 7 per cent of gross domestic product - of which China accounts for one-quarter. Meanwhile, in part because of Beijing's reluctance to permit domestic consumption to rise, China's surplus is running at 7 per cent of GDP.

Clearly, imbalances on this scale are untenable. But nothing good will emerge unless Mr Hu and Mr Bush can resist domestic pressures to scapegoat each other and agree on the need to reorient their economies in tandem. In spite of the low odds, China and the US must also convince the other large surplus countries of east Asia to participate alongside the renminbi in a co-ordinated revaluation.

The challenge of unwinding global imbalances will be the most important item when the two leaders meet tomorrow. But Mr Bush should not allow the currency controversy to crowd out or tarnish the broader array of issues they should confront together.

There are many in the Bush administration who still view China's rise as an unalloyed threat to US interests. John Negroponte, the director of national intelligence, recently de-scribed China as a "peer competitor". Perhaps the hawks are right in identifying Beijing's rapidly growing defence spending as evidence that it eventually plans to challenge US pre-eminence. Yet it is hard to imagine a satisfactory solution to any of Mr Bush's most pressing foreign policy challenges without involving China more effectively. Of these, the nuclear weapons programmes of Iran and North Korea top the list. On both, China has been lukewarm, neither opposing US objectives directly nor assisting them as much as it could. With North Korea, China fears instability in its backyard as much as it fears a nuclear Pyongyang. On Iran, China's priority is to secure energy supplies, which clashes with Washington's request for its support in threatening international sanctions. How China behaves will also have an impact on whether Mr Bush is able to strengthen US energy security. A recent congressional study said US gas prices would rise by 15 per cent in the next five years if China's oil demand continued to grow at its current rate.

These are just a sample of the areas where better US-China co-operation would be critical for the world. In that regard, Robert Zoellick, deputy secretary of state, has shown more savvy than some of his colleagues in appealing to China's better instincts to become a "responsible stakeholder" in the international system. As a Texan, Mr Bush will recall that you catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.
中美必须合作


从胡锦涛本周访美前的情况来判断，也许有人会认为，美中关系的良好程度可完全由人民币兑美元汇率来衡量。

在这个问题上，通常黑白分明地表述美国的选择的布什总统 (George W. Bush)，态度比一些批评他的人士要微妙一些，他承认美中关系很“复杂”。这一描述，或许同样也适用于布什上任以来往往自相矛盾的对华立场。

中国国家主席胡锦涛本周访美时将听到大量呼声，涉及中国刻意压低人民币汇率与美国日益扩大的经常账户赤字之间的联系。他应该记住，并非所有批评都可以被视为美国中期选举前为博取民意而作出的姿态。胡锦涛也不妨回忆一下，自2001年以来，布什对中国的看法有了多大的改变。


布什上任时，就挑出中国作为他外交政策中最关切的问题。中国被他烙上了“战略竞争者”的烙印，借此刻意背离克林顿(Bill Clinton) 把北京转变成“战略合作伙伴”的希望。中国将美国EP3侦察机迫降后，两国出现长达10天的紧张对峙局面，关系急转直下，十分危险。

几个月后，美国世贸双塔遭到袭击，令许多事情发生了变化。其中之一是，华盛顿意识到，要击败世界各地的伊斯兰恐怖主义组织，中国的支持不可或缺。“9/11”还给了布什更大空间采取措施刺激美国经济。去年，美国的对华贸易逆差翻了一倍多，达2020亿美元，上述政策转变至少要负部分责任，虽然结果是无意中造成的。

美国目前的经常账户赤字达国内生产总值(GDP)的7%多(中国对其中四分之一负有责任)，这部分要归因于布什背离传统的财政政策。与此同时，部分因为北京不愿允许国内消费上升，中国的盈余达GDP的7%。

显然，这种规模的失衡是难以持久的。除非胡锦涛与布什能够顶住把对方当作替罪羊的国内压力，并就调整各自经济的需要达成一致，否则难以产生好的成果。尽管成功的可能性不大，中美还必须说服有大量盈余的东亚其它国家与人民币一起升值。

中美两国领导人周四会晤时，解决全球失衡的挑战将是最重要的议题。但两人应共同应对的问题很多，范围很广，布什不应让汇率争议挤走或淡化这些问题。

布什政府中，仍有许多人将中国的崛起看成对美国利益不折不扣的威胁。国家情报局长(director of national intelligence)约翰?内格罗蓬特(John D. Negroponte)最近将中国形容为“对等的竞争者”(peer competitor)。北京的国防开支迅速增长，鹰派人士将此视为证据，认为北京最终计划挑战美国的优势地位，这或许不无道理。然而，若不更有效地让中国参与，很难想像布什政府的任何紧迫外交政策挑战能得到圆满解决。其中首要的是伊朗和朝鲜的核武器计划。中国在这两件事上都不冷不热，既不直接反对美国的目标，也没有尽力协助美国的目标。在朝鲜问题上，中国害怕平壤拥有核武器，但也担心自己的“后院”不稳定。在伊朗问题上，中国的首要任务是保障能源供应，这与华盛顿要求中国支持对伊朗发出国际制裁威胁相抵触。中国的举动，也将影响到布什政府能否加强美国的能源安全。美国国会最近的一份研究报告称，如果中国的石油需求继续以目前速率增长，美国汽油价格在今后5年里将上涨15%。

这只是一小部分例子，说明美中加强合作对全世界至关重要。在这点上，美国副国务卿罗伯特?佐立克(Robert Zoellick)比他的某些同事更精明，他呼吁中国诉诸理智，在国际体系中成为“负责任的利益相关者”(responsible stakeholder)。布什应该记得，甜言蜜语比尖酸刻薄更管用。

人民币汇率将是中美首脑会谈重要话题Yuan Will Hold Currency at Meeting

HONG KONG -- For years, China behaved as if it had a severe shortage of foreign exchange, instead of a pile that has now become the world's biggest. All that is about to change -- with potentially profound implications for the Chinese economy.

Last week, the central bank announced that starting May 1, individuals will be able to exchange yuan for as much as $20,000 each year, up from $8,000. Companies will be given more freedom to buy foreign currency. Banks will be able to collect yuan deposits from individuals and companies to invest in bonds overseas, while fund-management firms will be allowed to take foreign exchange from these customers to buy bonds and shares abroad.

Up to now, China has imposed tight restrictions on the use of foreign exchange. It is miserly with the amounts it allows Chinese students to take overseas, and even getting dollars to pay for a visa can be a hassle. Companies trying to get foreign currency to purchase imports often run into a tangle of bureaucracy. Authorities have banned individuals from using foreign exchange to invest in overseas stocks and bonds.

Beijing hasn't given a clear timetable for the relaxation of these policies, or details of the permitted size of overseas investment. Still, the implication is clear: the government wants to hold less foreign exchange, and it wants companies and individuals to hold more -- and spend it. One reason is that China's huge reserves, which hit $875.1 billion in March, draw unwelcome attention to its ballooning trade surplus, a source of growing friction with the U.S.

The size of the reserves is "sending trouble signals," says Calla Wiemer, a China expert who teaches economics at the National University of Singapore. At the same time, China wants "to make the foreign exchange market function more efficiently."

None of the announced moves are likely to substantially slow the accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves, now growing by around $200 billion a year. That means authorities will remain under pressure to allow faster appreciation of the yuan to try to reduce the trade surplus and head off inflation.

However, some economists point out that in the longer run, creating demand for dollars for overseas investment could depress the yuan relative to the U.S. currency.

American politicians have been pressing for a sharp appreciation of the yuan to bring down China's trade surplus with the U.S., which hit a record $202 billion last year, according to U.S. figures. They say an artificially low yuan makes China's exports unfairly cheap.

The issue is expected to be high on the agenda during Chinese President Hu Jintao's meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush on Thursday in Washington, part of Mr. Hu's trip this week to the U.S.

China's announcement on overseas investment still falls short of what the U.S. wants -- a revaluation and, ultimately, free trading of the yuan against the dollar -- and President Bush's problem is that he can't easily compel China to do more. The threat the U.S. Congress has been brandishing -- passage of legislation imposing a huge across-the-board tariff on all Chinese imports if currency policies don't change -- is an empty one.

That is why the most important development ahead of this week's summit might have been the little-heralded introduction of a bill in Congress by Republican Sen. Charles Grassley and Democratic Sen. Max Baucus. Their bill would require the U.S. Treasury, if it determines that the yuan is "fundamentally misaligned," to vote against loans for China from the World Bank or Asian Development Bank, refuse to provide insurance through the Overseas Private Investment Corp. and block any effort to give China a larger voting share in the International Monetary Fund.

Such threats are less draconian than an across-the-board tariff on Chinese imports. But they also are a lot more realistic -- which is why the two senators may have given President Bush a little more of the leverage he will need.

The moves -- the most significant so far in Beijing's efforts to liberalize its tight currency controls -- will give ammunition to Mr. Hu to disarm critics in Washington. They could encourage more buying of U.S. goods by Chinese, whether by overseas students studying in the U.S., companies importing more U.S. products or investors snapping up U.S. stocks and bonds.

But the policy could also have long-term consequences on the Chinese economy. At present, Chinese listed companies don't have to fight very hard for investment: their stocks and bonds are among the few investment opportunities open to Chinese with money.

When these investors are able to pick and choose among companies listed in Hong Kong and elsewhere, Chinese firms will have to improve their management and returns.

More broadly, China will have to make it far more attractive for investors to keep their money in China by overhauling stock markets that have been plagued with corruption and poor disclosure, and by developing bond markets.

The incentive for Chinese to take their money offshore is obvious. Where China's one-year bank deposit rate has been unchanged for years at 2.25%, Chinese investors could get yields of more than twice that rate by buying U.S. or European government bonds.

Still, Chinese brokers aren't counting on a flood of investment overseas anytime soon. "We don't expect many clients," says Zheng Tuo, a fund manager at Fortis Haitong Investment Management Co. in Shanghai. "It will take about two or three years before the market matures."

Chinese bankers foresee a lucrative new business area, but not immediately. Mi Liang, a Shanghai-based investment consultant with the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, says individual investors are unfamiliar with overseas bond markets. "Even Chinese banks themselves aren't good at analyzing these highly profitable but more risky overseas investment products," he says.
人民币汇率将是中美首脑会谈重要话题



多年来，中国的相关政策让人觉得它似乎是一个极度缺乏外汇的国家，而事实上，如今它已成为全球外汇储备最多的国家。现在，这一切终于要有所改变了，而且，新政策还将对中国经济产生潜在的深远影响。

中国央行上周宣布，从五月一日起，境内居民个人购汇年度总额由原先的每人每年等值8,000美元增加至2万美元；境内机构经常项目外汇帐户保留外汇的限额也有所提高。银行可以将居民和企业的外汇存款用于投资海外债券，同时，允许资产管理公司集合这些客户的外汇用于购买海外债券和股票。

更多信息


? 中国外汇新政不大可能推高人民币汇率

? 中国放宽对境内机构和居民个人的购汇限制

? 中国给期待人民币实现政策突破者再泼冷水

? 人民币升值未必有助于贸易此前，中国对外汇的使用一直实行严格的控制。到海外留学的学生也只允许携带很少的外汇，甚至要搞到申请签证用的少量外汇也不是件容易的事。需要用外汇进口设备或原材料的企业常常为此陷入各种繁文缛节。居民个人一直被禁止购买海外股票和债券。

北京还没有宣布允许进行海外投资的时间表以及具体的投资额度。不过，中国的意图很明显，那就是减少所持有的外汇，让更多外汇留在企业和个人手中或者消费掉。导致这种想法的原因之一是中国巨大的外汇储备。截至3月份，中国的外汇储备达到8,751亿美元，这一庞大的数字使贸易顺差不断膨胀，并招致其他国家的不满，成为导致中、美摩擦日益加剧的一个诱因。

在新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)教授经济学课程的中国问题专家卡拉?威尔默(Calla Wiemer)说，中国外汇储备的规模“发出了麻烦的信号”。同时，中国希望“外汇市场能提高运作效率”。

目前，中国的外汇储备在以每年2,000亿美元的速度增加，而中国宣布的上述举措不可能显著放慢外汇储备积聚的速度。这意味著，中国仍将承受加快人民币升值的压力，以减少贸易顺差、抑制通货膨胀。

不过，经济学家指出，就长期而言，允许海外投资所引发的美元需求有可能抑制人民币兑美元汇率上升。

美国政界人士一直在向中国施压，要求其大幅上调人民币汇率以降低美中贸易逆差。据美国方面的数字，美中贸易逆差去年达到了创纪录的2,020亿美元。他们认为，中国人为压低人民币汇率使中国出口商品享受了不公正的价格优势。

在中国国家主席胡锦涛与布什总统本周四在华盛顿会晤时，这个问题将成为会谈的一个重要议题。

中国宣布的有关海外投资的新政策并没有解决美国想要的东西，那就是让人民币升值并最终允许人民币兑美元自由兑换，而布什的问题是他不能轻易勉强中国作出更多表示。美国国会一直宣称，如果中国不改变外汇政策，将通过立法让美国对中国所有输美商品征收高额关税以示惩罚－－但美国在这方面并没有付诸行动。

在胡锦涛本周访美前，这方面最重要的一个进展或许应该是两位国会议员──共和党参议员查尔斯?格拉斯利(Charles Grassley)和民主党参议员马克斯?鲍科斯(Max Baucus)提出的一个议案。议案要求，如果认定中国的人民币汇率“根本性失真”，那么美国财政部在世界银行(World Bank)或亚洲发展银行(Asian Development Bank)就向中国提供贷款问题进行投票表决时必须投下反对票，同时拒绝通过海外私人投资公司(Overseas Private Investment Corporation)提供保险，并阻止中国在国际货币基金组织(IMF)获得更大的表决权。

这一议案不像对进口中国商品全面征收关税的做法那么苛刻，但它更现实，因此可以说，这两位议员或许给布什提供了他可能需要的运作空间。

中国这次宣布的新政策是中国在放松外汇管制方面最重大的举措。它使胡锦涛有了消解华盛顿批评家火气的武器。这些措施可能会刺激中国人──如海外留学生、进口企业、投资美国股市和债市的人──购买更多美国商品。

新政策还将对中国经济产生长期影响。目前，中国上市公司在证券市场上融资不会遇到很大困难，因为中国人可选择的投资机会非常有限。

一旦投资者可以投资在香港和其他地区上市的股票，那么大陆上市公司将不得不改善公司治理和股东的投资回报以留住投资者。

从更广泛的意义上来说，为将投资者的钱留在国内，中国将不得不通过改革股票市场、发展债券市场来增加对投资者的吸引力。目前的中国股市深受腐败和信息披露不规范的困扰。

中国人对把钱投到海外的兴趣显而易见。中国的一年期储蓄存款利率多年来一直保持在2.25%不变，而如果购买美国或欧洲国家国债，其收益率比这个水平高一倍以上。

不过，中国的证券经纪公司并不认为很快会出现海外投资大潮。上海海富通基金管理公司(Fortis Haitong Investment Management Co.)基金经理郑拓说，我们估计不会有很多客户。这块业务要经过两到三年时间才会逐渐成熟。

银行界人士也认为这项业务盈利前景很好，但不会很快实现。中国工商银行在上海的投资顾问糜良说，个人投资者对海外债市不熟悉；中资银行本身也不擅长分析这些高收益但风险也较大的海外投资产品。

美欲引导中国担当起世界舞台新角色
President Hu's Historic Visit

Chinese President Hu Jintao's first trip to the U.S. this week and his summit Thursday with President Bush are the stuff of history, but you won't discern that from the statements and deals that diplomats dub "the deliverables."

Watch instead what the sum of the parts says about what sort of China is emerging to mark the end of a relatively short period of unrivaled U.S. global dominance from the Cold War's end to, well, about now. The danger: China is gaining global influence faster than a sense of responsibility about how to deal with it.

THINKING GLOBAL



Is China more of an opportunity or threat to the U.S.? Is Beijing becoming more of a "responsible stakeholder" in the international system?
Write to Frederick Kempe at Thinkingglobal@wsj.com with your thoughts.
EMAIL ALERTS


Sign up to receive alerts when new installments of Thinking Global are published. Frederick Kempe also writes a daily analysis of the biggest news of the day. You may sign up to receive Mr. Kempe's full daily commentary by email, along with links to all of the stories and features that are mentioned in each day's Asian or European edition of the print Journal.With that in mind, U.S. officials choreographing the trip have pursued a dual purpose ahead of this week's meetings. They have pushed China, which at current growth rates will surpass the U.S. economy as the world's largest in about 2030, to more quickly help enforce global rules on everything from protecting intellectual property to stopping Iran's nuclear proliferation. Second, they want Mr. Hu this week to address growing American anxiety about China amid record trade deficits.

"Part of the challenge of the new summitry is to establish a Chinese dialogue with the American people," says Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, who has led a series of discussions with Chinese officials in past months aimed at coaching Beijing on its new global role. "Our primary focus in preparing for this summit has been to try to get the Chinese to recognize that in both words and deeds they need to demonstrate to the American public that they see [economic relations] as more of a two-way street."

It's in that context that Beijing has gone on a $16 billion pre-summit shopping spree for goods from soybeans to software, often through long-term contracts. Beijing has required all Chinese computer makers to pre-load operating software, thus reducing rampant piracy. A move last week to relax capital controls on Chinese individuals and companies is another piece of the puzzle.

Now watch this week to see if Mr. Hu delivers the statements U.S. officials have sought on the hottest economic issues: China's undervalued currency and runaway counterfeiting and piracy of intellectual property.

A Touch Triumphant

President Hu will use his first trip to the U.S. as part barnstorming to sell Americans on China's good intentions and part victory lap to mark his country's emergence as a global power.


He'll start in Seattle today with a visit to Boeing and dinner with Bill Gates, move on to Washington and end with a Yale valedictory. His subtext throughout: China's rise is more opportunity than threat.

He knows continued single-party Communist rule at a time of growing social tensions relies on two sources of legitimacy at home: economic growth and nationalism. He'll offer economic carrots to tame U.S. protectionists while safeguarding Chinese growth. He'll also press Mr. Bush to publicly oppose Taiwan's independence leanings.

The measure of the trip's success, however, will be the extent to which Mr. Hu shows China has embraced the concepts necessary, as Mr. Zoellick defined it in a speech last September, to transform itself into a "responsible stakeholder" in the global system that has enabled its success. While the administration debates whether China is friend or foe, this approach aims to so deeply co-opt Beijing that even as a rival it would be a limited threat.

"For seven administrations over some 30 years we set as a goal to integrate China into the international system," says Mr. Zoellick. "Guess what? We've succeeded. If you look at capital markets, commodity prices, currency issues, counterfeiting problems, you can't discuss these subjects without involving China. So we reset the strategic focus. The goal can't be just integrating China, we have to integrate to what purpose?"

Mixed Record

For those keeping score on whether the stakeholder ideas are sinking in, there's evidence on both sides.

'RESPONSIBLE STAKEHOLDER'


? Transcript of Zoellick speech

? Untranslatable Word Leaves Beijing Baffled
12/07/05

Chinese leaders, after a nudge from Washington, ensured that the newly elected Hamas prime minister wasn't invited to Beijing. China coughed up a significant contribution for Afghan rebuilding earlier this year. China has said it will welcome the head of the new Iraqi government once it has formed.

China still balks at allowing markets to set its currency price, estimated at 20%-40% below market values. It has been slow as well to effectively crack down on piracy and counterfeiting. Movement has been in the right direction but may be slower than U.S. legislators seeking sanctions may tolerate.

On the dark side of the balance sheet, Beijing continues to hold political prisoners, censor the press, resist democratic political change and befriend despots. China strikes energy deals in Africa and Central Asia that seem more aimed at locking up assets than bringing resources to an open market. Beijing would likely oppose economic sanctions against Iran if it comes to that.

U.S. officials say Mr. Bush will press Beijing again on religious freedom and political prisoner cases. But domestic constituencies on both sides dictate that the two leaders will spend most of their time tending to economic tensions that could poison all aspects of the relationship.

For all the importance of their meeting, Mr. Bush will be the first post-war president not to hold a state dinner for a Chinese leader's visit, choosing a lower profile lunch. Their scheduled time together is only 90 minutes and they won't hold a common press conference or make common statements.

Yet don't get too lost in such details this week. Most important is the glimpse President Hu provides into the world's future.

? Is China more of an opportunity or threat to the U.S.? Is Beijing becoming more of a "responsible stakeholder" in the international system?
美欲引导中国担当起世界舞台新角色



中国国家主席胡锦涛上任后的首次美国之行及其与美国总统布什定于周四举行的会晤是具有历史意义的事件，但是从那些被外交家们称为“可期成果”的声明和协议里你是体会不到这一点的。

所以，我们还是来关注一下综合各类言论得出的一个关于中国的总体印象吧──美国自冷战结束以来相对短暂时期内所独享的全球霸主地位将因这个国家的迅速崛起而宣告结束。眼下的危险是，伴随其全球影响力的急速扩大，中国还没有相应及时地意识到自己在运用这种影响力时所应担负的责任。

意识到这一点的美国官员在设计这次首脑会晤时一直希望能达到两个目的。他们一方面敦促经济快速增长的中国－－若按目前速度增长，到2030年其经济总量就会取代美国世界第一的地位－－更加积极地在从知识产权保护到阻止伊朗核计划等所有国际事务上协助国际规则的执行，另一方面，他们希望胡锦涛此次访问能缓解美国人对不断加剧的美中贸易逆差的担忧。

美国副国务卿佐立克(Robert Zoellick)说，这次首脑会晤面临的挑战之一是让中国与美国建立起对话机制。佐立克本人过去几个月里曾数次率队与中国官员进行一系列对话，以期引导北京担当起在全球格局中所应有的新角色。“我们在准备此次首脑会谈时的主要重点是努力让中国人认识到，他们需要在言语和行动两个方面向美国公众表明，他们将两国经济关系更多地视为一种互惠互利的关系。”

正是在这一背景下，北京在胡锦涛访美前发起了一轮采购狂潮，他们签下了总额160亿美元的大单，且多为长期合约，所购商品从大豆到软件不一而足。北京还要求中国电脑制造商在电脑里预装正版软件，以此削减猖獗的盗版现象。上周，中国还宣布放松对境内居民及企业的外汇管制。这也是其一系列实际行动中的一个组成部分。

现在，本周要关注的是胡锦涛是否会如美国官员所期，在诸如汇率、盗版、知识产权等热点经济问题上发表什么言论。

胡主席将利用这次访问作为他向美国人表明中国良好意愿的机会，同时，这也将成为他向世人展示日益崛起的中国大国形像的机遇。

他将于今天以西雅图为起点，先参观波音公司(Boeing)，随后与比尔?盖茨(Bill Gates)餐叙，再到华盛顿，最后从耶鲁大学(Yale)挥别。他贯穿全程的潜台词是：中国的崛起带给其他国家的更多的是机遇而非威胁。

他知道，在当前中国国内社会动荡日益加剧的情况下，共产党要维持其政权取决于国内的两大资源──经济增长和民族凝聚力。他要在维持国内增长的同时，在经济上拿出点甜头来安抚美国的保护主义者。他还要向布什施压，要求美国公开反对台湾岛内的台独倾向。

不过此次美国之行的成功与否在很大程度上取决于中国对一些观念──如佐立克在去年9月的讲话中所述──的认同程度，只有接受了这些观点，中国才能成为国际体系中“负责任的利益相关者”，而正是融入到国际体系中才促成了中国的成功。虽然布什政府对中国是敌是友仍在争论不休，但此举旨在将中国政府深植于国际体系中，这样一来，即便作为竞争者，中国的威胁也会小得多。

佐立克说，“我们过去30年的七届政府都努力将中国纳入国际体系。结果怎么样？我们成功了。看看资本市场、商品价格、汇率和商品仿冒问题，如果没有中国的参与，这些问题根本无法讨论。因此我们重新设定了战略重心。目标不仅仅是将中国纳入国际体系，还需明确这样做的目标是什么。”

对利益相关者的概念仍持保留态度的人可以看看两方面的例子。

在美国政府的敦促下，中国保证不会邀请巴勒斯坦新当选的总理、哈马斯领袖访问北京；中国迫于压力在今年年初为重建阿富汗作出了重要贡献；中国还表示将欢迎伊拉克新政府的领导人访华。

中国在实现人民币自由兑换问题上仍裹足不前，据估计目前的人民币汇率比市场价值低估了20%至40%。另外，中国在打击盗版和假冒商品问题上也不够积极。虽然中国已经采取了一些正确的措施，不过在寻求制裁中国的美国参议员看来，这个速度仍过于缓慢了。

看看中国的另一面：北京方面还在实行媒体审查制度、拒绝进行政治改革。中国与非洲、中亚签订能源协议的目的似乎更像是锁定资产而不是建立开放的市场。另外，如果事态进一步发展，那么中国政府可能会反对对伊朗实施经济制裁。

美国官员表示，布什将在宗教自由等问题上再次向北京施压。不过共和党和民主党的选民却要求领导人更多关注可能损害中美关系的经济紧张局势。

此外，布什将成为战后第一个不设国宴招待中国领导人的美国总统，他选择的是规格较低的午宴。两国元首按计划只有90分钟的会面时间，而且不会召开共同的新闻发布会或发表共同声明。

不过对这些细节不要过于深究。最重要的问题是胡锦涛如何看待世界的未来。

中国外汇新政不大可能推高人民币汇率

China Move Is Unlikely To Boost Yuan

HONG KONG

Don't politicize trade issues, US urged
     


SEATTLE: President Hu Jintao has urged the United States not to politicize trade disputes, emphasizing that China's fast growth provides tremendous commercial potential.

"China's development will present enormous business opportunities to the United States and other countries," he told a Wednesday luncheon in Seattle attended by about 600 business leaders and government officials.

He said opportunities are in nuclear energy, natural gas and energy conservation. "China has a huge market and a strong demand for America's advanced technologies and management expertise."

Hu noted that China's annual economic growth averaged 9.6 per cent during the last 27 years and the country has drawn in foreign direct investment of US$620 billion.

On trade frictions between China and the United States, he said: "We should properly address these problems through consultation and dialogue on an equal footing."

Differences should not be politicized, he stressed.

The president also asked the United States to ease export controls on high-tech goods and eliminate protectionist measures.

Hu's visit comes amid simmering trade disputes between the two countries, ranging from China's trade surplus and its currency exchange regime to US companies' access to the Chinese market.

Hu argued that the China trade has saved American consumers billions of dollars and created millions of jobs and brought "great benefits" to both sides.

He reiterated that China does not seek a big trade surplus with the United States and is working hard to reduce the figure.

But he added that the surplus was a natural outcome of changes in US industry and of globalization.

"At least 90 per cent of US imports from China are goods that are no longer produced in the United States," Hu said. "If not from China, the United States will still have to import these products from other suppliers."

He said China has been "increasing imports" from the US and has "worked hard" to reduce the trade surplus, citing China's recent purchase of Boeing aircraft, software, soybeans and other farm products worth more than US$16 billion.

He dangled more opportunities for US businesses, saying, for example, that China needs 2,000 new airplanes in 15 years.

On the currency, Hu said China wants a flexible but stable exchange rate and will continue to improve its flexibility.

"Our goal is to maintain the renminbi exchange rate basically stable, at an adaptive and equilibrium level," Hu said.

Hu's choice of Washington state as his first US stop, where he met executives of Boeing and software giant Microsoft, appears to be aimed at easing US concerns over the trade deficit and showing Americans China's purchasing power.

The state enjoys a trade surplus with China, largely due to the sale of Boeing airplanes, as well as wines and agricultural products. Its exports to China increased by 64 per cent last year.

After a tour of Boeing's assembly factory earlier on Wednesday, Hu told about 6,000 employees of the aircraft maker that the close relationship between China and Boeing serves as a symbol of the good that can come from better trade relations.

"Boeing's co-operation with China is a vivid example of mutually beneficial co-operation and a win-win outcome that China and the United States have achieved by trading with each other," he said.

"I sincerely hope that the economic and trade relations between our two countries will prosper further and fly higher, just like a Boeing plane."

Source: China Daily