胡锦涛主席访美专题报道

Hu and Gates prove money speaks louder than politics    
By Stan Beer  
Thursday, 20 April 2006
The meeting today between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Microsoft chairman, Bill Gates, demonstrates in no uncertain terms that when it comes to doing business - especially in the highly competitive IT industry - money speaks louder than political principles. The words political censorship, rampant software piracy and human rights would not have sullied the meeting between the two men.
Instead we heard platitudes such as Hu is a friend of Microsoft and Gates is a friend of China. And of course, why wouldn't Mr Gates and company want to be a friend of China at all costs when a market of hundreds of millions of PCs is at stake. Microsoft shareholders are not interested in the internal politics of countries with a market of 1.3 billion people who can add to the bottom line of their investment.

Not that Microsoft is alone by any means. Google is quite happy to go along with the censorship of its search results if it means that its search engine will be on the home page of Chinese desktops. There has even been a report about Yahoo! helping the Chinese Government track down a dissident. Such is the power of the purse strings of the world's next superpower.

From Microsoft's point of view, having the President of China to lunch at Bill Gates' residence is more than simple diplomacy and relationship building. It's also more than persuading the President to get serious about enforcing anti-piracy laws and prohibiting thye sale of naked PCs. What it's really about is buying access to potentially the world's biggest PC market at the expense of the biggest threat to the Windows operating system, Linux.

The consensus among Linux advocates is that Microsoft will succeed in slowing the growth of Linux in China for the short term. With deals, like the $1.2 billion contract struck with Lenovo yesterday, Microsoft is prepared to practically give away its software just to keep Linux at bay. However, long term, the Linux crowd believes the end result is inevitable. With the whole world moving toward open source, they say, China will follow.

Upbeat on Trade, Hu Offers No New Fixes for Imbalance

By Blaine Harden
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, April 20, 2006; Page A20

Photos
Chinese President Begins U.S. Trip
Chinese President Hu Jintao arrives in the Pacific Northwest, where trade issues have been carefully massaged in recent days to put a cheery face on China's chronic problems with software piracy, an undervalued currency and a soaring trade surplus with the United States.


Friday, April 21, at 11: 00 a.m. ET
Chinese President Makes Visit to U.S.
Washington Post staff writer Edward Cody, who is based in Beijing, answers questions about the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to the U.S. to discuss trade and relations between the two countries.


SEATTLE, April 19 -- Chinese President Hu Jintao conceded Wednesday that "some problems have occurred" in the business ties between his country and the United States, but offered few, if any, specifics for solving them.

On the second day of his visit to Washington state, Hu was effusive and optimistic about the importance of trade to the future of both countries. At the same time, though, he announced no new proposals for cutting his country's huge trade surplus with the United States, revaluing its currency or limiting China's oil purchases from rogue countries such as Iran.


Photos
Chinese President Begins U.S. Trip
Chinese President Hu Jintao arrives in the Pacific Northwest, where trade issues have been carefully massaged in recent days to put a cheery face on China's chronic problems with software piracy, an undervalued currency and a soaring trade surplus with the United States.


Friday, April 21, at 11: 00 a.m. ET
Chinese President Makes Visit to U.S.
Washington Post staff writer Edward Cody, who is based in Beijing, answers questions about the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to the U.S. to discuss trade and relations between the two countries.


Chinese President Begins U.S. Trip
Bush-Hu Meeting to Highlight Role That China Plays
Upbeat on Trade, Hu Offers No New Fixes for Imbalance


"The common strategic interests that bind our two countries together have not decreased; they have increased," Hu said in luncheon remarks delivered before his flight to Washington, D.C., where he will meet with President Bush on Thursday. "The various areas for our cooperation have not narrowed; they have widened further."

He noted that "given the rapid growth, sheer size and wide scope of our business ties, it is hardly avoidable that some problems have occurred."

As for the most visible of those problems -- China's growing trade surplus, which soared to $202 billion last year -- Hu explained it as mostly the result of "different industrial restructuring of our two countries and the accelerated international division of labor driven by economic globalization." He noted that at least 90 percent of U.S. imports from China are goods that are no longer made in the United States.

China has "worked hard," he said, to cut the surplus by importing $6.7 billion in farm products from the United States last year and by committing to buy 210 Boeing Co. aircraft in the past two years.

Shortly before his speech -- in a visit that seemed a symbolic response to critics of China's trade surplus -- Hu toured a Boeing plant north of Seattle, where he told workers that they have built two-thirds of China's commercial airline fleet. He said China will need 2,000 more planes by 2020.

Many economists, the Bush administration and members of Congress from both parties blame much of the trade imbalance on what they say is China's refusal to let its currency rise to its real-world value.

Hu acknowledged no such refusal, saying that "China has taken a highly responsible attitude in deciding upon an exchange rate regime suitable to its national conditions." Having readjusted the exchange rate last year -- which raised its value by 3 percent against the U.S. dollar -- Hu said his government will now support its currency in a way that is "basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level."

As for the American concern about China's growing appetite for fossil fuel, Hu said that the Chinese are committed to alternative sources of energy, to conservation and to the "proper use of overseas energy." In his speech, he did not mention his country's long-term oil purchase agreements with Iran.

Hu noted, though, that China's per-capita consumption of energy is one-eighth that of the United States.

Hu: no trade barriers, Bush: tech edge
(chinadaily.com.cn/agencies)
Updated: 2006-04-20 09:44

Visiting Chinese President Hu Jintao yesterday called for fewer trade barriers and closer ties between China and the United States, while US President Bush vowed persistent efforts to maintain scientific and technological edge of his country.

During his speech at Boeing Corp, President Hu sought to soothe tensions over the US-China trade deficit, telling workers China will need thousands of new airplanes in the coming years as the rapidly growing Asian economy powers ahead.


Chinese President Hu Jintao waves after addressing Boeing employees during his tour of the Boeing's Commerical Airplane plant in Everett, Washington. Jintao urged the United States not to let trade disputes damage Sino-US relations, arguing that the China trade has saved American consumers billions of dollars and created millions of jobs. [AFP]


"Strong business ties meet the fundamental interests of our two countries and peoples and will continue to play an important role in stabilizing our relations," Hu said.

China's rapid growth and development will increase demand for American products and expertise in areas such as technology, Hu said, and "I hope the American businesses will seize the opportunities."

Speaking to an audience of the northwestern Washington state business and political leaders, Hu said China does not seek a big trade surplus with the US.


Hu urged the United States not to let trade disputes damage Sino-US relations, arguing that the China trade has saved American consumers billions of dollars and created millions of jobs.

"Given the rapid growth, sheer size and wide scope of our business ties, it is hardly avoidable that some problems have occurred," Hu told the luncheon.

"We should properly address these problems through consultation and dialogue on an equal footing as we work to expand our business ties."

China-US trade has brought "great benefits" to both sides, Hu said on the second day of his first official US visit and on the eve of a summit with US President George W. Bush.

"According to (US investment bank) Morgan Stanley, in 2004 alone, quality yet inexpensive Chinese goods saved US consumers 100 billion US dollars and trading with China created over four million jobs in the United States," Hu said.

US companies doing business with China also have made profits, he added.

Hu insisted China was working hard to reduce its trade surplus with the United States, but also said it was a natural outcome of changes in US industry and of globalization.
"At least 90 percent of US imports from China are goods that are no longer produced in the United States," Hu said.

"Even if not from China, the United States will still have to import these products from other suppliers."

He said China has been "increasing imports" from the US and has "worked hard" to reduce the bilateral trade surplus, citing China's import of 6.7 billion dollars' worth of US soybeans and other farm products as well as orders for 60 Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft last year.

Hu listed a series of steps China is taking to improve its economy and further open its market to US and other foreign companies, including welcoming more small and medium-sized American firms to explore business opportunities in China and encouraging Chinese firms to invest in the US market.

Hu also said he wanted to make China's foreign exchange markets more efficient, but China was not ready for a drastic change in the value of Renminbi currency.

"Our goal is to keep the Renminbi exchange rate basically stable at adaptive and equilibrium levels," Hu said. "China will continue to firmly promote financial reforms, improve the Renminbi exchange rate-setting mechanism, develop the foreign exchange market, and increase the flexibility of the Renminbi exchange rate."

Visiting Boeing's wide-body jet assembly plant earlier, he called his country's long-running relationship with Boeing an example of the potential of China-U.S. trade.

"Boeing's cooperation with China is a living example of the mutually beneficial cooperation and win-win outcome that China and the United States have achieved from trade with each other," Hu said.

He estimated that demand for new aircraft in China will reach 2,000 planes in the next 15 years.

***Bush: Keeping American on the cutting edge

On Wednesday, President Bush said the United States needs to keep on the cutting edge in research in the face of growing competition over jobs and natural resources from India and China.

Bush singled out the world's two most populous nations one day before Hu Jintao's scheduled visit to the White House on Thursday. Bush noted that event and his recent trip to India.

"These countries are emerging nations," Bush said in a speech at Tuskegee University. "They are growing rapidly and they provide competition for jobs and natural resources. As these new jobs of the 21st century come into being, people are going to hire people with the skills set," he said. "And if our folks don't have the skill set, those jobs are going to go somewhere else."

Before his speech, Bush visited a lab at Tuskegee where students were researching nano-technology. The science involves the manufacture and manipulation of materials at the molecular or atomic level. Bush also urged Congress to make permanent a popular tax credit for businesses that invest in research and development.

"It's research that will keep the United States on the cutting edge," Bush said.

Bush remarked that government-funded research contributed to the development of the iPod music player. "I tune into the iPod occasionally," the president said to laughter from the audience.

Protests greet Hu at White House

Washington (dpa) - President Hu Jintao ignored a protestor on the White House lawn and pledged to further open Chinese markets after talks Thursday with US President George W Bush, but offered no new initiatives in the nuclear disputes with Iran and North Korea.

Hu was received with military honours at a pomp-laden ceremony, but his remarks were briefly interrupted by a woman protesting China's treatment of the Falun Gong religious movement.

Trade and the Iranian crisis topped the agenda of US concerns that Bush addressed at the summit. The US currently has a 200 billion dollar trade deficit China, and Bush pressed Hu to give US companies more market access and to fully enforce intellectual property rights.

"We understand the American concerns over the trade imbalances, the protection of intellectual property rights, and market access," Hu told a news conference after the meeting.

"We have taken measures and will continue to take steps to properly resolve the issues," he said.

Bush said the US welcomes these pledges and the "emergence of a China that is peaceful and prosperous and that supports international institutions."

In a nod to China's desire for an formal reception, Hu was greeted with a brass band, a 21-gun salute and a fife and drum corps dressed in US Revolutionary War uniforms.

But the heckler, who shouted at Hu in Chinese for more than a minute from a platform used by television cameras, injected an embarrassing note of surprise into the well-scripted ceremony.

Hu momentarily halted his arrival statement on the White House's South Lawn, but Bush encouraged him to ignore the protest and continue. Three security officers hustled the woman away.

Media reports said she demanded that Bush ask China to stop persecuting Falun Gong. The US Secret Service identified her as Wang Wang Yi, 47, a reporter for a Falun Gong-affiliated newspaper, CNN reported.

Outside the White House fence, several hundred demonstrators lined the street during Hu's visit, waving banners and protesting Chinese policy toward Taiwan, Tibet and Falun Gong.

As a veto-holding UN Security Council member, China's role in efforts to curb nuclear programmes in Iran and North Korea was a key point in the talks.

"We intend to deepen our cooperation in addressing threats to global security, including the nuclear ambitions of Iran, the genocide in Darfur, Sudan, the violence unleashed by terrorists and extremists, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction," Bush said.

However, analysts point to China's growing energy demand that has led it into seek oil from countries such as Iran and Sudan.

Hu made plain that he was offering nothing new in US efforts to step up pressure on Iran to keep it from building nuclear weapons and to spur six-nation talks with North Korea on its nuclear efforts.

Both sides "agreed to continue their efforts to seek a peaceful resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue," Hu said.

Bush said the countries share the "common goal" of keeping nuclear weapons out of the hands of Iran. He lauded China as "an important voice in international affairs."

Bush, as much as Hu, was eager to present China as a peaceful power that should be viewed as a land of opportunity, not a threat.

"We don't agree on everything, but we're able to discuss our disagreements in a spirit of friendship and cooperation," Bush said.

For Hu, his first visit to Washington was a key opportunity to bolster China's international standing - and his position back home as Communist Party chief.

"I have come here to enhance dialogue, expand common ground, deepen mutual trust and cooperation, and to promote the all around growth of constructive and cooperative China-US relations in the 21st century," Hu said.

China is seeking to assure the US that it can be a partner in trade. Many US lawmakers have questioned China's economic policies, saying they do not benefit the US and are calling for protection against Chinese imports.

High on China's agenda was the status of Taiwan. Bush said he assured Hu that he does not support Taiwan's independence, which the Chinese president welcomed.

Hu, in turn, said Taiwan is "an inalienable part of Chinese territory" and China would "by no means" allow its independence. However, he stressed that China seeks a "peaceful reunification."

Chinese media have portrayed Hu's sojourn as a formal state visit. But the White House is only offering a "social lunch" with 200 guests and a Nashville bluegrass band for entertainment, instead of the kind of black-tie evening gala that the Bush White House has sparingly thrown, such as that given late last year for Britain's Prince Charles and Camilla.

Hu's four-day trip began Tuesday in the northwestern US state of Washington - thousands of kilometres from the capital - where he met Microsoft boss Bill Gates and toured a Boeing aircraft assembly plant. Tonight, he was to give a speech at Yale University.

.

20/04/2006 - 6:35:58 PM

Little progress made in US-China talks

US President George Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to cooperate more closely but failed to break new ground today toward resolving differences over trade and nuclear tensions with Iran and North Korea.

Their meeting was marred by a protest.

No breakthroughs had been expected during Hu’s first visit to the White House. Both he and Bush acknowledged at a picture-taking session that much work remained to be done, and the two sides would strive for progress in these areas.

The welcoming ceremony on the White House’s South Lawn for Hu’s first visit as Chinese leader was marred briefly by screams of a Chinese woman who condemned Hu’s human rights policies and China’s persecution of the Falun Gong spiritual movement.

Hundreds of demonstrators massed outside to protest human-rights restrictions in China.

Bush, sitting in the Oval Office with Hu before they were to attend a formal luncheon, praised China for previous progress in what is perhaps the major irritant in the relationship, Beijing’s tightly controlled currency.

The United States considers the Chinese yuan undervalued, and Bush said: “We would hope there would be more appreciation.”

On Iran, China has resisted the approach favoured by the United States and Europe, pursuing sanctions if Tehran does not comply with demands that it halt uranium enrichment. No movement was apparent on that question.

Bush said only that the two sides agree on the goal of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons or having the capability to produce them and are able to “work on tactics” to achieve it.

“We don’t agree on everything, but we are able to discuss our disagreements in friendship and cooperation,” he told reporters.

Hu, aware of the growing US impatience with America’s record trade deficit with China, offered general promises to address the yawning gap.

His comments were unlikely to cool demands in Congress for punitive tariffs against Chinese products.

“We have taken measures and will continue to take steps to resolve the issue,” Hu said.

Bush put a good face on the meeting.

“He recognises that a trade deficit with the United States is substantial, and it is unsustainable,” Bush said.

“Obviously the Chinese government takes the currency issue seriously, and so do I.”

Bush also had been hoping to get Beijing to take on more than a mediator’s role in efforts to bring North Korea back to six-nation talks aimed at halting its nuclear weapons programs.

Asked what more his country could do to resolve that dispute, Hu asserted that China “has always been making constructive efforts to de-nuclearize the Korean peninsula”.

The two presidents had not been expected to take questions from media, in deference to Chinese wishes.

An agreement to take questions from two reporters from each country came at the last minute and produced more than half an hour of back-and-forth as the leaders sat side-by-side in front of a fireplace.

Afterwards, the leaders went into meetings with a larger group of aides and officials. Then, Bush was hosting the formal lunch for China’s first family, with music supplied by a bluegrass band.

The half-day summit got underway with pomp and pageantry on the South Lawn as demonstrators massed outside to protest Beijing’s human-rights policies.




The two stood side by side, under bright sunshine on the South Lawn of the White House, as a military band played the national anthems of both countries.

Bush and Hu then engaged in a ceremonial review of US troops, some dressed in 18th-century Continental Army uniforms.

A woman on the camera stand interrupted the welcoming ceremony, shouting in heavily accented English and Chinese: “President Bush, stop him from persecuting the Falun Gong!” and “President Bush, stop him from killing!”

Uniformed Secret Service personnel hustled her off the stand and out of the fenced-off South Lawn.

Hu arrived last night in the American capital for the first time as China’s leader after spending two days wooing American business leaders in Washington state.

In formal remarks on the South Lawn, Bush spoke more forcefully on the currency issue, saying he would continue to press for China to move “toward a flexible market exchange”.

Bush raised other issues with Hu, including complaints about China’s rights record and questions over China’s growing military strength and whether it poses a threat to Taiwan.

During his address, Hu pledged China’s help in working diplomatically to ease the nuclear tensions with North Korea and Iran.

He vowed in general terms to work to promote human rights. “We should respect each other as equals and promote closer exchanges and cooperation,” he said, speaking through a translator.

Hu said that closer US-Chinese cooperation would “bring more benefits to our two people and to the people of the world”.

The visit attracted high-profile attention both inside and outside the White House gates. Falun Gong, condemned by the Chinese government as an evil cult, gathered hundreds of demonstrators on street corners near the White House in the early morning.

Marchers banged gongs, chanted and waved American and Chinese flags. Banners denounced Hu as a “Chinese dictator” responsible for genocide and other “crimes in Chinese labour camps and prisons”.

The Chinese government had its say as well. In a median in front of the Chinese Embassy, the Falun Gong protesters that are nearly always there had been replaced by Chinese supporters holding huge red-and-yellow banners offering to “warmly welcome” Hu on his American visit.

There were some obvious signs that the summit was not considered on the US side as a “state visit”.

Although the Chinese flag flew over Blair House, the official guest quarters for visiting dignitaries across the street from the White House, lamp posts surrounding the compound were bare of the usual pairings of flags from the United States and its guest country.

The two sides disputed what to call the visit, with the Chinese insisting that it is a “state visit”, the designation former President Jiang Zemin received in 1997, and the Bush administration considering it an “official visit”.

Hu has carried on a tradition started by Deng Xiaoping on his first visit to the United States in 1979, courting American business executives in recognition of the fact that the United States is China’s biggest overseas market.

Hu had dinner at the home of Microsoft chairman Bill Gates on Tuesday and yesterday he received a warm welcome from employees at Boeing’s massive Everett, Washington, facilities.

By Paul Eckert, Asia Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A heckler from the Falun Gong spiritual movement, who entered White House grounds as a reporter, interrupted a formal arrival ceremony for Chinese President Hu Jintao on Thursday, prompting President George W. Bush to apologize to his guest.

After being welcomed by Bush, the Chinese president was just beginning his response when a woman, who had been allowed into the press section, started shouting. She was escorted away by a uniformed U.S. guard.

"President Hu, your days are numbered. President Bush, make him stop persecuting Falun Gong," the woman yelled. U.S. officials later identified her as Wang Wenyi, 47, a reporter with The Epoch Times, an English-language publication strongly supportive of the meditation movement that is banned in China.


"This was unfortunate and I'm sorry this happened," Bush told Hu, according to Dennis Wilder, a senior official with the National Security Council.

The Secret Service charged Wang with disorderly conduct under local statutes. The U.S. Attorney's office was weighing federal charges of "willing intimidation or disruption of a foreign official," said Secret Service spokesman Eric Zahren.

Outside the White House, hundreds of yellow-clad Falun Gong disciples, Taiwanese nationalists, and Tibetan youth group members demonstrated against Hu and his government.

The protesters denounced China's human rights record, its missile build-up near Taiwan and its 55-year-long rule over the Himalayan Buddhist region of Tibet.

"Communist Party = Tyranny + Lies," read a yellow banner, carried by one female member of Falun Gong, which China outlawed and brutally crushed in 1999.   Continued...

胡锦涛在与布什会晤前盛赞中美关系
Hu Lauds Ties With U.S. Ahead of Bush Meeting

SEATTLE -- Having wooed some of America's top corporate chiefs in the first half of his U.S. tour, Chinese President Hu Jintao today will begin talks with U.S. political leaders in Washington, D.C.

Mr. Hu spent the second day of his four-day U.S. trip with a visit to a Boeing Co. plant outside Seattle, where he touted China's purchase of billions of dollars of Boeing airplanes in an address to the aerospace company's employees. In a luncheon speech later to some 600 dignitaries and business leaders, Mr. Hu recited statistics highlighting the benefits of U.S. trade and investment relations with China.


Chinese President Hu Jintao, center, donned a Boeing hat Wednesday given by employee Paul Dernier, right, and CEO Alan Mulally, left.
He reiterated a pledge to gradually liberalize China's currency policy, a source of criticism in the U.S., but also reaffirmed China's commitment to keep the yuan's exchange rate "basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level" -- underlining Beijing's reluctance to move too precipitously on that front.

Chinese officials have said that Mr. Hu's first formal U.S. visit since he became China's leader three years ago is aimed at convincing American people of the benefits of the U.S.-China relationship. It comes amid worsening trade tensions between the two nations, with American politicians and other critics blasting Beijing for failing to protect the intellectual property of U.S. businesses and for allegedly manipulating the yuan's exchange rate to lift Chinese exports. The U.S. trade deficit with China last year soared past $200 billion.

Mr. Hu's first two days offered a steady stream of mutual adulation between the Chinese leader and U.S. business and political leaders. On Monday, Mr. Hu visited Microsoft Corp. headquarters in Redmond, Wash., where he pledged to strengthen China's protection of intellectual-property rights and called the company's chairman, Bill Gates, a "friend of China." He later dined with about 100 guests at Mr. Gates's home.

MORE


? Interactive Graphic: Power Plays

? Slideshow: Asian Tiger

? Notebook: Trade Barriers

? As China Boosts Defense, U.S. Hedges Its Bets
04/20/06

? Rapid Economic Growth at Home Adds to Heat on Hu
04/20/06

? Microsoft Tries to Mimic Boeing's Fortunes in China
4/17/06

In his luncheon speech, Mr. Hu said trade with China saves American consumers billions of dollars a year, and stressed the opportunities the country's growth offers to U.S. companies.

"I hope American companies will seize opportunities, aggressively expand their share of China's market, and continue to enhance their business ties with China," Mr. Hu said.

The Chinese president's brief stay in Washington today is likely to be somewhat more challenging than his Seattle stay. U.S. officials have described an ambitious agenda for meetings between Mr. Hu and President Bush, but cautioned against expecting any breakthroughs. Among the thorny issues likely to be discussed: China's currency policy and trade surplus; Taiwan, to which the U.S. provides military assistance despite Beijing's claims that the island is part of its territory; and how to deal with Iran's nuclear program.

"As an administration, we believe that the economic relationship is a mutually beneficial one, but that much more needs to be done to make the benefits more balanced between the two nations and the two people," Faryar Shirzad, deputy National Security Adviser for the U.S. International Economic Affairs, said earlier this week.

China had tried to prepare the ground for Mr. Hu's visit with a raft of trade deals involving acquisitions of more than $15 billion from U.S. companies, including Microsoft and Boeing.
胡锦涛在与布什会晤前盛赞中美关系



在美国之行的前半段，中国国家主席胡锦涛向几位美国商界巨头大献殷勤，今天他将前往华盛顿与美国政治领导人展开会谈。

更多信息


? 胡锦涛参观微软，重申反盗版决心

? 胡锦涛在波音强调以贸易实现双赢
? 胡锦涛在人民币问题上恐难让美国满意胡锦涛在访美的第二天参观了波音公司(Boeing Co.)位于西雅图郊外的工厂，在对波音公司员工发表的讲话中，他著力突出了中国采购数十亿美元波音飞机一事。随后在有600位名流和商界领袖参加的午餐会上，胡锦涛引用数字强调了美国对华贸易和投资带来的好处。

胡锦涛重申将逐步放宽引发美国不满的人民币汇率政策，但也再次强调人民币汇率将“基本稳定在一个有适应力的平衡水平”──这也表明中国政府不愿急速调整人民币汇率。

此次美国之行是胡锦涛担任国家主席三年来对美国进行的首次正式访问。中国官员表示，此行的目的是使美国人民认识到美中关系的利益所在。胡锦涛访美也正值中美贸易紧张局势日益恶化之际：美国官员和批评家谴责北京方面没能保护好美国企业的知识产权，并批评中国政府操纵人民币汇率以达到促进出口的目的。美国对华贸易逆差去年猛增至2,000亿美元。

胡锦涛访美的前两天是在中国领导人和美国企业界、政界领袖们的相互恭维中度过的。胡锦涛周一参观了位于华盛顿州雷德蒙德的微软(Microsoft Corp.)总部。他保证将加强中国保护知识产权的力度，并称微软董事长比尔?盖茨是“中国的朋友。”随后他在盖茨的居所和100名宾客一同进餐。

胡锦涛在午餐会讲话时表示，与中国的贸易让美国消费者每年节省了数十亿美元，并强调中国的发展将为美国企业带来更多机会。

胡锦涛表示，“希望美国企业抓住机遇，积极开拓中国市场，进一步扩大中美经贸合作。”

胡锦涛在华盛顿的短暂停留将比在西雅图面临更大的挑战。美国官员透露，两国首脑会晤议题很重大，不过他们对能否取得突破却持谨慎态度。议题中最棘手的问题可能将包括：中国的汇率政策和贸易顺差；台湾问题──虽然北京方面声称台湾是中国领土的一部分，但美国仍对台湾提供军事援助；如何解决伊朗核问题。

负责国际经济事务的美国副国家安全顾问谢萨德(Faryar Shirzad)在本周早些时候表示，“美国政府相信经济往来是一种互惠互利的关系，不过，为保证两国和两国人民之间的利益分配更平衡，需要作出更多努力。”

中国政府在胡锦涛访美前签定了一系列贸易协议，包括向微软、波音等美国公司采购了价值150多亿美元的商品。

(back)Currency Manipulator?

China's president, Hu Jintao, on his first visit to the U.S., may well puzzle over his host's government's sometimes obscure and legalistic approach to international economic issues. Section 3004 of Public Law 100-418 requires that the secretary of the Treasury assess whether countries such as China that have global current account surpluses or large bilateral trade surpluses with the U.S. are manipulating their exchange rates to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to gain an unfair competitive advantage in international trade.

The question of whether the beleaguered treasury secretary, John Snow, is willing to classify China as a "currency manipulator," with unspecified economic sanctions to follow if he does, is the current serious flashpoint in China-U.S. relations. Unfortunately, U.S. lawmakers and many, if not most, economists fail to understand that China's motivation for pegging its exchange has been to secure internal monetary stability and not to achieve an undue mercantile advantage in world export markets. The law as written mistakenly presumes that current account surpluses are per se evidence of currency manipulation by the foreign countries in question.


Without a doubt, China's trade surpluses are large and possibly getting larger. From 2000 to 2004, China has had the world's largest bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. But since then, the collective trade surpluses of the oil-exporting countries have become larger than China's surplus. The key difference, however, is that China is a major exporter of manufactured goods that sometimes compete with U.S. manufactures, whereas imports of oil and natural gas are viewed as vital inputs for American industry. This difference explains the current concern in the Congress with possible "unfair" competition from China but not from oil exporters despite their proportionately larger surpluses. Still. China's current bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. is about one-quarter of America's huge and growing trade deficit, which is about 7% of U.S. GDP so far in 2006.

Section 3004 fails to recognize that persistent trade surpluses in China and trade deficits in the U.S. reflect very high saving in China and unusually low saving the U.S., an imbalance that no exchange rate change can correct. China's saving is even higher than its own extraordinarily high domestic investment of 40% of GDP, whereas saving in the U.S. is very low relative to a more normal level of domestic investment of 16% to 17% of GDP. The result is that China (like many other countries in Asia) naturally runs an overall current account surplus while the U.S. runs a current account deficit.

This large current account deficit -- more in goods than in services -- reflects borrowing from the rest of the world to cover its saving deficiency. Without this saving transfer allowing the U.S. to spend more on goods and services than it produces, the U.S. would suffer a credit crunch. Interest rates would increase so that investment -- both industrial and residential -- would fall. If this cessation of net foreign lending to the U.S. happened suddenly causing the current account deficit to fall quickly, and if there was no correction in America's saving deficiency, the U.S. economy would be forced into a sharp cyclical downturn similar to the "credit crunch" of 1991-92. On the other hand, if reduction in net foreign lending was gradual and spread over many years, the cost would be that America's longer term economic growth would slow as domestic investment and the current account deficit fell in tandem as a proportion of GDP.

Two main points must be recognized. First, an exchange rate change cannot correct America's current account and saving-investment imbalance. Second, if the saving rate in the U.S. were to increase gradually through time, then its current account deficit would gradually diminish -- without requiring any substantial change in nominal dollar exchange rates with major trading partners including China.

Increased U.S. saving must come from two sources: the federal government and the household sector. (U.S. corporate saving from retained profits remains robust.) Strenuous efforts must be made reduce the U.S. federal fiscal deficit, which at 3% to 4% of GDP, is a terrific drain on national saving. Tax revenues have fallen to an unduly low level by international standards. Dealing with deficient, perhaps negative, household saving is conceptually a much trickier problem. But some program of "forced" saving, from a national pension plan above and beyond Social Security contributions, should be considered. Singapore's Provident Fund could be a good model.

However, suppose the U.S. current account deficit is misdiagnosed as an exchange rate problem as with Section 3004. More than 20 years ago, when Japan had the largest bilateral trade surplus with the U.S., the U.S. government exerted continual pressure on Japan to appreciate the yen. Indeed, the yen went all the way from 360 to the dollar in 1971 to peak out at just 80 to the dollar in April 1995. This induced a bubble in Japanese stock and land prices in the late 1980s, which collapsed in 1991. A deflationary slump and a zero interest liquidity trap followed resulting in Japan's "lost decade" of the '90s. But the higher yen led to no obvious reduction in Japan's trade surplus as a share of its slumping GDP. The fall in domestic imports from the sluggish economy offset the reduced growth in Japan's exports from the higher yen.

Could the same thing happen to China? From 1994 through to July 21, 2005, China had fixed its exchange rate at 8.28 yuan per dollar by focusing its national monetary policy on maintaining that rate. The idea was to use the dollar exchange rate to anchor China's price level at a time when great financial transformation made domestic monetary indicators difficult to interpret. And this policy was successful in ironing out China's previous "roller coaster ride" in domestic price inflation and growth rates. Its high inflation of the mid 1990s came down and converged to that in the U.S. -- as the principle of relative purchasing power parity would suggest.

Now China has come under great pressure -- mainly from the U.S. -- to appreciate the renminbi. Since July 21, 2005, the renminbi has appreciated slowly -- only about 3.5% so far. But Section 3004 is an important part of continuing American political pressure on China for further appreciation. In 2006, China's year-over-year CPI inflation has fallen to just 1%, whereas America's is over 3%. Clearly, any substantial further appreciation will push China into a situation where its CPI begins to fall. To be sure, China's real economy remains robust. But if it is continually forced to appreciate the renminbi because bad economic theory suggests that a higher renminbi will eventually reduce its trade and saving surplus, the possibility of a Japanese-style deflationary slump cannot be ruled out.

So, in an ideal world, on what basis should Presidents Hu and Bush agree to reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries? China needs to increase private consumption in order to reduce its saving glut -- and its new five-year plan, which in its newly marketized economy can only be indicative, points in this direction. But the U.S. needs to drastically rein in the federal budget deficit in order to reduce the national saving deficiency. If China keeps its side of the agreement but the U.S. does not, then China's reduced trade surplus, i.e., less lending to the U.S., will mean higher interest rates here and abroad. But, whether or not such a broad agreement is implemented, Secretary Snow's narrower job of interpreting Section 3004 is straightforward: China is not a currency manipulator and the yuan/dollar rate is best left more or less where it is.

Mr. McKinnon is professor of economics at Stanford.
救救人民币


上任以来首次访问美国的中国国家主席胡锦涛或许对东道国政府在国际经济问题上有时采取的模棱两可但又合乎法律要求的做法深感困惑。根据美国公法100-418号第3004款，对于中国这样对全球其他国家有经常项目盈余或对美国有高额双边贸易顺差的国家，美国财政部应对其是否操纵汇率，阻止国际收支的有效调整或者在国际贸易中获得不公正的竞争优势作出评估。

左右为难的财政部长斯诺(John Snow)是否愿意将中国列为“汇率操纵国”并相应采取某些制裁措施呢？这个问题可以说是当前中美关系中最关键的“著火点”。不幸的是，美国国会议员和许多经济学家（如果还不是大多数的话）都没能认识到中国实行钉住汇率制度的动机所在：他们选择这种制度安排是为保证国内金融稳定，而不是为了在国际出口市场获得不应有的贸易优势。上述法律条文将经常项目盈余视为所涉及国家操纵汇率的实质性证据，这是错误的想法。

的确，中国的贸易顺差非常庞大，而且还有可能继续扩大。从2000年到2004年，中美贸易顺差在世界各国对美贸易中是最高的。但2004年之后，石油出口国对美顺差合计规模一直都高于中国。

不过，两者关键的不同之处在于，中国的顺差主要来自制造业产品出口，这个出口大国让美国制造业感到了很大竞争压力，而进口石油和天然气等自然资源则被视为向美国企业输血的必要做法。由此可以理解，为什么国会议员们认为来自中国的是“不公正”的竞争，而顺差更大的石油出口国则没有这顶帽子。而且，在美国庞大且不断上升的贸易赤字里，对中国的“赤字”已占到四分之一左右。今年截至目前，美国的贸易赤字已接近国内生产总值(GDP)的7%。

第3004款不能分辨出这样一个事实，即中国长期的贸易顺差及美国的贸易逆差反映了中美两国在储蓄率方面一高一低两个极端的情况。这种差距靠汇率调整是无力改变的。中国人的储蓄额甚至比国内投资额(占GDP的40%)还多；相比之下，美国的国内投资占国内生产总值16%-17%，处于一个比较正常的水平，而储蓄水平更是低得多。结果是，中国（像其他许多亚洲国家一样）很自然地总体上处于经常项目盈余状态，而美国处于赤字状态。

造成美国巨大的经常项目赤字（来自商品贸易的部分大于服务）的原因之一是美国从其他国家借钱来弥补自身储蓄的不足。如果没有这些来自别国的储蓄使美国人得以消费更多商品、享受更多服务，美国将发生信贷危机。利率会升高，投资（无论是工业投资还是住宅投资）会下降。如果从外国的净借款突然减少，并引起经常项目赤字迅速下降，而美国人储蓄不足的情况没有改变，那么，美国经济将被迫进入一个类似1991-92年“信贷危机”时期的周期性下滑阶段。另一方面，如果这种减少是逐步的、延续多年的，那么，随著国内投资和经常项目赤字相对于国内生产总值的比例相应下降，美国的长期经济增长也将放缓。

有两个要点必须认清。首先，汇率调整并不能纠正美国经常项目赤字以及储蓄与投资关系的失衡。其次，如果美国的储蓄率能随著时间的推移而逐渐增长，那么经常项目赤字也就会逐渐减少──从而无需对美元兑主要贸易伙伴国货币名义汇率作任何重大调整，包括人民币。

美国储蓄规模的增长必定来自两个渠道：联邦政府和普通居民。（美国企业利润留存的储蓄很丰厚。）美国政府必须做出艰苦努力，削减联邦财政赤字。目前占GDP 3%-4%的赤字规模不啻是吸干全国储蓄的无底洞。用国际标准衡量，美国政府的税收收入已经严重偏低。要解决美国人偏低甚至已是负值的储蓄问题，从理论上讲是一个比较棘手的难题。但可以考虑带些“强迫”色彩的措施，比如在社会保障(Social Security)计划之外再构建一套全国性的退休金计划。在这方面，新加坡的公积金(Provident Fund)是一个很值得借鉴的模式。

但是，设想一下将美国经常项目赤字的原因错误地断定为汇率问题所致，那会怎样呢？20多年前，当日本对美国出现创纪录的双边贸易顺差时，美国政府持续向日本施压，要求其提高日圆汇率。日圆果真从1971年的1美元兑360日圆一路飙升，直到1995年4月达到1美元兑80日圆的顶点。但由此也引发了80年代末期日本股市和地产市场的严重泡沫，1991年泡沫破灭后日本随即步入通货紧缩时代，陷入零利率怪圈，整个90年代成为日本“失落的十年”。但是，尽管日本GDP迅速下滑，日圆升值也并没有显著压低日本贸易顺差占其GDP的比例。实际上，经济低迷导致的进口萎缩抵消了日圆升值使出口减少的影响。

中国会重演这一幕吗？1994年至2005年7月21日，中国将人民币汇率维持在1美元兑人民币8.28元一线，并调整国内货币政策来保证这一点。这套政策的理念是，中国正在经历重大的金融转型期，国内各项货币指标很难解读，因此借用美元汇率来锚定中国的价格水平。这在熨平前一次国内价格激增和经济飞速增长时已经见效。90年代中期高高在上的通货膨胀率逐步回落，向美国靠拢──这一现象验证了相对购买力平价理论。

现在，中国承受著要求人民币升值的巨大压力，这压力主要来自美国。2005年7月21日以来，人民币一直在缓慢升值──迄今只有3.5%。但3004款是促使美国继续向中国施压要求人民币升值的重要内容。2006年，中国CPI指数已降至1%，而美国同一指标超过3%。显然，人民币进一步大幅升值会将中国推入CPI开始下滑的境地。的确，中国的实体经济仍然活力十足，但如果在错误理论指导下迫使人民币升值，就不能排除发生类似日本通货紧缩式经济衰退的可能。

那么，在最理想的情况下，胡锦涛和布什应该在什么基础上达成调整两国贸易失衡的共识呢？中国应该鼓励私人消费，以便消化巨额储蓄。中国刚刚制订的新的五年规划已经指明了这一方向。但美国必须采取积极措施，严格控制联邦预算赤字，以弥补国内储蓄的不足。如果中国信守承诺，但美国不了了之，那么中国减少的贸易顺差（即减少对美国的借款）就意味著美国及世界各地的利率会进一步上升。但是，不论这样一项广泛共识能否达成并实施，美国财政部长斯诺对3004条款的解读都应该是直截了当的：中国并不是一个汇率操纵国，人民币兑美元汇率最好基本保持现状。

（编者按：本文作者罗纳德?麦金农(Ronald I. McKinnon)是斯坦福大学经济学教授，2005年出版了Exchange Rates under the East Asian Dollar Standard: Living with Conflicted Virtue一书）

(back)China's Hu Plans Boeing Tour After Dining With Bill Gates

SEATTLE (AP)--After a swanky dinner with the richest man in the world, Chinese President Hu Jintao turns his attention to America's largest exporter, whose sales to China could help ease tensions over a growing trade gap.

Hu, who dined Tuesday night at the home of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Chairman Bill Gates, was invited to tour Boeing Co.'s (BA) Everett plant on Wednesday, just days after Chinese officials confirmed a commitment to order 80 Boeing 737 jets, in a deal valued at $5.2 billion at list prices. The order has yet to be finalized, and airlines typically negotiate discounts.

Boeing sees China as one of its most important future markets, estimating that the country will require 2,600 new airplanes over the next 20 years.

Hu began his day Wednesday at his downtown Seattle hotel by visiting with China scholars and academics, including former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, former National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft and former Defense Secretary William J. Perry.

The big Boeing deal is one of several purchases the Chinese made recently as officials try to ease tensions over the massive trade gap between the two nations. It's one of several issues President George W. Bush is expected to raise when Hu heads to Washington, D.C., later in his four-day U.S. tour.

Hu's Thursday summit with Bush will cover a broad agenda, from China's much-criticized currency and other trade policies, to its aggressive search for oil and its positions on the developing nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea.

Touring Microsoft's suburban Redmond campus earlier Tuesday, Hu said he admired what Gates had achieved. He also sought to reassure Gates that China is serious about protecting intellectual property rights, a key concern for the company as it battles widespread piracy of its Windows operating system there.

"Because you, Mr. Bill Gates, are a friend of China, I'm a friend of Microsoft," Hu said through a translator. "Also, I am dealing with the operating system produced by Microsoft every day," he added, to laughter.

Gates responded: "Thank you, it's a fantastic relationship," and then quipped: "And if you ever need advice on how to use Windows, I'll be glad to help."

In a whirlwind visit, Hu - accompanied by Gates, company CEO Steve Ballmer and an entourage of Chinese dignitaries - saw some business technology demonstrations and toured Microsoft's Home of the Future, which features experimental technology.

Hu began his American visit Tuesday in Everett, about 30 miles north of Seattle, where members of the Seattle Kung Fu Club and a handful of ribbon dancers from a Seattle elementary school welcomed him.

Hu also was greeted by government and business leaders, including Gov. Chris Gregoire and Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) Chairman Howard Schultz.

Hu told Gregoire he didn't choose Seattle simply because it's the closest major U.S. city to China.

"It is also because your state enjoys very good cooperative relations with my country," Hu said through a translator.

China is Washington state's third-largest export market, while Washington imported more than $16 billion worth of products from China in 2005.

Demonstrators both in support and opposition to Hu lined the streets near his downtown Seattle hotel. Supporters waved Chinese and American flags.

Members of the spiritual movement Falun Gong, condemned by the Chinese government as an evil cult, staked out all four corners around the hotel Tuesday to protest treatment of the movement's followers in China.

At the entrance to Microsoft's campus, protesters waved signs in Chinese and English that read "Stop web censorship" and "Release all political prisoners."

Following the meeting at Microsoft, about 100 guests, including Kissinger and former Gov. Gary Locke, the first Chinese-American governor, were invited to Gates' home on Lake Washington for a dinner Gregoire hosted there. The guest list included executives from Costco Wholesale Corp., Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY), Boeing and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZM).

Gates took Hu on a tour of his lavish home before the guests were seated at 10 tables in the reception hall. Waiters handed out glasses of Dom Perignon champagne for the toasts that preceded a dinner of smoked Guinea fowl with hazelnuts, spring radish and Granny Smith apples and filet of beef with Walla Walla sweet onions and Washington-grown asparagus.

Hu thanked Gregoire for her hospitality and thanked Gates, again through a translator, for "providing this elegant venue with both traditional arts and modern technology and fine tastes."

The visit came as Microsoft, after years of battling widespread software piracy in the potentially lucrative China market, is hopeful that things are changing. Chinese government officials say they are serious about cracking down on sales of illegal copies of Microsoft's Windows operating system, and some computer makers are pledging to ship more computers with legitimate Windows software installed.

Although analysts say it could be some time before the promised changes have a significant effect on Microsoft's sales, the pledges are a feel-good backdrop for Hu's visit with Gates and other business and government executives.
胡锦涛在波音强调以贸易实现双赢



中国国家主席胡锦涛周三参观波音公司(Boeing Co.)时表示，中国与波音公司的合作是中美贸易有可能实现“双赢”的一个范例。他还对波音员工说，未来几年中国将需要数千架飞机。

就在胡锦涛在波音埃弗里特工厂发表此番讲话的前几天，中国官员与波音公司签订了80架波音737飞机订单，交易额高达52亿美元。这些订单尚未最后确定。

胡锦涛说，波音与中国的合作是中美通过互惠互利的贸易合作取得双赢成果的生动范例。未来15年中，中国对新飞机的需求将达到2000架，这无疑预示著波音与中国合作的美好明天。

波音预计中国未来20年中将需要2600架新飞机。

波音的80架飞机订单是中国最近宣布的几项大宗采购项目的一部分，中方试图通过这些订单缓解两国由贸易逆差引发的紧张关系。贸易逆差将是布什总统与胡锦涛会谈时讨论的问题之一。

胡锦涛周四与布什的会谈将涉及广泛话题，如中国备受批评的外汇政策及其他贸易政策、中国大规模寻找石油的举动以及中国在伊朗和朝鲜核计划问题上的立场等等。

胡锦涛周三在其下榻的位于西雅图市中心的酒店内接见了中国问题专家和学者，其中包括美国前国务卿亨利?基辛格(Henry Kissinger)、前国家安全顾问布兰特?斯考克罗夫特(Brent Scowcroft)以及前国防部长威廉?佩里(William J. Perry)。

周二胡锦涛参观了位于雷德蒙德的微软公司(Microsoft Corp.)总部，并在微软董事长比尔?盖茨(Bill Gates)家中进餐。胡锦涛说，他很钦佩盖茨所取得的成就，并表示中国很重视知识产权保护问题。这也是微软关注的一个重要问题。微软一直试图解决其Windows软件在中国被大量盗版的问题。

胡锦涛、盖茨和微软首席执行长巴尔默(Steve Ballmer)还参观了展示微软实验技术的“未来之家”。

世界承受不起美中交恶
Why Washington and Beijing need strong global institutions

This week, George W. Bush, the US president, meets Hu Jintao, his Chinese counterpart, during the first US visit by a Chinese head of state since 1997. As the authors of an important recent study remark: "The US-China relationship is too big to disregard and too critical to misread".* The two countries are fated to co-operate. The question is how best they can do so.


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One could not imagine a worse-matched couple: the one a democracy, the other an autocracy; the one a child of the enlightenment, the other the avatar of the world's most enduring agrarian empire. It will take an effort not just of imagination, but of will, for the two to work well together. Yet failure to do so could lead to another dismal epoch of disorder. The world must not let the opportunity for peaceful exchange and prosperity slip through its fingers, as it did so tragically in the first half of the twentieth century.

An interdependent world requires the willing, sustained and disciplined co-operation that multilateral institutions alone can underpin. This is true particularly in the area of economics. It applies not least to a focal issue for presidents Bush and Hu: exchange rates and "global imbalances". The malign interaction between exchange rate policies and protectionist pressures is the biggest threat to economic openness.

Many in the US Congress blame China for their country's huge and growing current account deficits. While the US economy is expanding strongly, protectionist pressure is contained. But what will happen during the next downturn? As Harvard university's Martin Feldstein has also noted recently, such a downturn is hardly unlikely, since only exceptionally low savings and high borrowing by US households have sustained US domestic demand at levels sufficient to offset the country's huge trade deficits.**

Why is the only workable solution a multilateral one? The first part of the answer is economic: the global balance of payments is inherently multilateral. Even if one focuses, wrongly, on bilateral balances, the US deficit with mainland China accounts for only a quarter of its overall deficit. In the global picture, we find that China's current account surplus was roughly a sixth of the aggregate surpluses of oil exporters and advanced economies (other than the US) in 2005 (see charts).

The second part of the answer is political. If the relationship between the US and China is treated as a purely bilateral one, all disputes become matters of power and prestige. To "win" is to impose the former; to "lose" is to sacrifice the latter. At present, the US is more powerful than China. If it imposes its will bilaterally, perhaps by threatening import tariffs, as it did when breaking up the Bretton Woods exchange rate system in 1971, it inflicts humiliation. Yet today's China is not in the same relationship with the US as Japan and Europe during the cold war. A series of bruising bilateral conflicts between the two powers will destroy the working relationship on which the world will depend in coming decades.

The final part of the answer is that a resolution will be achieved only by first reaching a mutual understanding of the challenge. Discussions of exchange rate policy require an intellectual honest broker. That is what the International Monetary Fund exists to be. By providing a credible and authoritative analysis of the global position, it can turn what would otherwise be a conflict between powers into a discussion of mutual interests. This is why reform of the IMF, an issue to be discussed at the spring meetings in Washington this weekend, is no arcane or minor matter.

In an interesting recent discussion, Raghuram Rajan, the IMF's chief economist, argues that "surveillance is likely to be most effective when countries use it as a basis for constructive give and take".*** President Bush's administration has shown little interest in international finance and still less in reform of the IMF. It has been mistaken. A reformed Fund would greatly facilitate the discussion both it and we need.

China remains a pivotal player in the global balance of payments. It ran a current account surplus of about $150bn (￡84bn) last year (see chart). If oil prices had been lower, its surplus would have been considerably bigger. Its currency reserves - a measure of its enormous interventions - are likely to exceed $1,000bn by the end of this year. Given the country's reserves and the sustained inflow of foreign direct investment, it could run a current account deficit of $50bn without any risk. That would generate a swing of some $200bn in its external position. The world needs to persuade a cautious Chinese leadership that such changes (which would require a faster currency appreciation) are not just a demand from the "sole superpower", but in its own interest. Moving in this direction would also show its ability to play a leading role in the global economic system.

The will of a single country, however powerful, cannot guarantee a global order. If nothing else, the rise of China guarantees this. Multilateralism is a way to help the world's powers work together, in the interests of all. If this approach is to work, however, the institutions that oversee it must be credible and legitimate. That is why both a substantial reweighting of voting shares in the IMF and selection of its head from a global pool of qualified candidates are priorities.

The way in which the discussion of global exchange rate and macroeconomic policy is handled also bears on the wider issue of how the US and China are to act in the world. Are relations between them to be an endless tussle over power or are they to secure their interests in a more co-operative multilateral setting?

The brilliant vision of US leadership during and after the second world war was that institutionalised co-operation could be the basis for a novel global order. This vision is as relevant to the the era of a rising China. In deciding how to reform the multilateral institutions it established, the US can also help determine how China itself sees its new role.

The US can renew the multilateral approach for a new age; or it can bury it. Let it choose wisely.

*China: The Balance Sheet, C. Fred Bergsten and others, (New York: Public Affairs, for the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Institute for International Economics, 2006); **The Case for a Competitive Dollar, www.nber.org; ***The Ebbing Spirit of Internationalism and the International Monetary Fund, March 8 2006, www.imf.org
世界承受不起美中交恶

本
周，美国总统布什(George W. Bush)会见中国国家主席胡锦涛，这是中国国家领导人1997年以来首度访美。正如最近一份重要研究报告的作者所述：“美中关系事关重大，不容忽略，而且至关重要，不容误判”*。两国注定要合作，问题是如何最好地合作。

人们无法想象比美中更不“般配”的一对国家了：一个是民主政体，另一个是威权政体；一个是启蒙运动的产物，另一个是世界上历史最悠久的农业帝国。双方的良好合作不仅需要想象，还要有意志。否则可能导致又一个糟糕的无序时代。世界绝不能让和平交流和繁荣的机会从指尖溜走，重演20世纪上半叶的悲剧。

　


一个相互依赖的世界，需要可由多边机构独自支撑的自愿、持久、守纪的合作，在经济领域尤为如此。这适用于布什总统和胡锦涛主席关注的一个问题：汇率与“全球失衡”。汇率政策和保护主义压力之间的恶性互动，是对经济开放的最大威胁。

许多美国国会议员把美国不断扩大的巨额经常账户赤字归咎于中国。美国经济在强劲扩张，而保护主义压力得到了抑制。但下一轮经济低迷到来时会发生什么呢？正如哈佛大学的马丁?费尔德斯坦(Martin Feldstein)最近也指出的那样，这种经济低迷并非不可能，因为只是美国家庭格外低的储蓄和格外高的借贷，才将美国内需维持在足够抵消美国巨大贸易逆差的水平**。

为什么唯一可行的解决方案是多边的呢？答案的第一部分在于经济：全球国际收支在本质上是多边的。即便人们错误地聚焦双边平衡，美国对中国大陆的赤字也只占其总体赤字的四分之一。在全球背景下，我们发现，中国经常账户盈余大致相当于石油输出国家和发达经济体(除美国外)2005年盈余总额的六分之一。

答案的第二部分在于政治。如果美中关系被纯粹当成双边关系来看待，那所有争议就变成权力和威望问题了。“赢”就是施加权力，“输”就是失去威望。目前美国比中国更强大。如果美国在双边关系中强加自己的意志――也许通过威胁征收进口关税的方式，就像它1971年打破布雷顿森林(Bretton Woods)汇率体系时所做的那样，那美国就会令别国蒙羞。但今天中国与美国的关系，与冷战时期日本和欧洲与美国的关系不同。有损两大强国的一系列双边冲突，会毁掉今后几十年世界所依赖的工作关系。

答案的最后一部分是，只有首先对挑战达成共同谅解，才能达成解决方案。汇率政策谈判需要一个睿智诚实的中间人，这正是国际货币基金组织(IMF)存在的目的。它能提供可信、权威的全球局势分析，把大国间的潜在冲突转变成有关共同利益的讨论。这就是将于本周末在华盛顿春季会议上讨论的IMF改革问题，既不晦涩，也非次要的原因。


在最近一次有意思的讨论中，IMF首席经济学家拉古拉姆?瑞占(Raghuram Rajan)指出，“各国都将监督作为建设性妥协的基础时，监督才可能最有效”***。布什政府对国际金融没什么兴趣，对国际货币基金组织改革更是不屑一顾。这是错误的。改革后的IMF能有效推进布什政府和我们都需要的讨论。

中国仍是全球国际收支中的关键角色。去年，中国的经常账户盈余约为1500亿美元。假如石油价格更低的话，盈余会更可观。到今年底，中国的外汇储备(中国大力入市干预的衡量标准之一)很可能超过1万亿美元。鉴于中国的外汇储备规模和持续流入的外国直接投资，中国可以毫无风险地承受500亿美元的经常账户赤字，这将使中国的国际收支情况发生约2000亿美元的变动。世界需要让谨慎的中国领导层相信，这种变化(其本身需要加快货币升值进程)不仅是“唯一超级大国”的要求，也符合其自身利益。朝着这个方向努力，还将展示中国在全球经济体系中扮演领导角色的能力。

单个国家的意志无论多么强大，也无法保证全球秩序。即使没有别的因素，单是中国的崛起也足以确保这一点。多边主义是帮助世界大国合作的一个途径，对各方都有利。但要使这一方式奏效，那么负责监督的机构就必须是可信、合法的。这就是为什么当务之急是大幅调整国际货币基金组织的投票权，以及从合格的全球候选人中推选总裁。

全球汇率及宏观经济政策讨论的处理方式，也与美中的全球行为方式这一更大的问题有关。美中关系是无止尽的权力角逐，还是在更为合作的多边框架中保障各自的利益？

制度化的合作可成为新型全球秩序的基础，这是美国领导人在二战期间及战后的真知灼见。在中国崛起之际，这个愿景同样适用。美国在考虑如何改革自己创立的多边机构时，也能帮助决定中国如何看待其自身的新角色。

面向新时代，美国可以重启多边方式，也可以将其埋葬。让它做出明智的选择吧。

*《中国：资产负债表》(China: The Balance Sheet)，C?福雷德?伯格斯坦(C.Fred BergSten)等著(《纽约：公共事务》(New York: Public Affairs)，战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)和国际经济研究所(Institute for International Economics)，2006)；

**《提高美元竞争力的理由》(The Case for a Competitive Dollar)，www.nber.org；

***《国际主义精神的衰落和国际货币基金组织》(The Ebbing Spirit of Internationalism and the International Monetary Fund)，2006年3月8日，www.imf.org。

作者简介：马丁?沃尔夫 (Martin Wolf)是《金融时报》的副主编 (associate editor)和首席经济评论员。他对全球经济有着精辟的深刻分析，获得了国际上各界广泛普遍的承认赞赏。最近，在他荣获 2003 年度“最佳商务记者奖”评奖中，他获得了其中的“十年杰出成就奖 ”等殊荣。沃尔夫先生1971年毕业于牛津大学，获经济学硕士。然后，他到世界银行任职工作，并于1974年出任世行资深经济学家。1999年以来，他一直是每年一度的 “世界经济论坛 ”的特邀评委成员。

救救人民币 Currency Manipulator?

China's president, Hu Jintao, on his first visit to the U.S., may well puzzle over his host's government's sometimes obscure and legalistic approach to international economic issues. Section 3004 of Public Law 100-418 requires that the secretary of the Treasury assess whether countries such as China that have global current account surpluses or large bilateral trade surpluses with the U.S. are manipulating their exchange rates to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to gain an unfair competitive advantage in international trade.

The question of whether the beleaguered treasury secretary, John Snow, is willing to classify China as a "currency manipulator," with unspecified economic sanctions to follow if he does, is the current serious flashpoint in China-U.S. relations. Unfortunately, U.S. lawmakers and many, if not most, economists fail to understand that China's motivation for pegging its exchange has been to secure internal monetary stability and not to achieve an undue mercantile advantage in world export markets. The law as written mistakenly presumes that current account surpluses are per se evidence of currency manipulation by the foreign countries in question.


Without a doubt, China's trade surpluses are large and possibly getting larger. From 2000 to 2004, China has had the world's largest bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. But since then, the collective trade surpluses of the oil-exporting countries have become larger than China's surplus. The key difference, however, is that China is a major exporter of manufactured goods that sometimes compete with U.S. manufactures, whereas imports of oil and natural gas are viewed as vital inputs for American industry. This difference explains the current concern in the Congress with possible "unfair" competition from China but not from oil exporters despite their proportionately larger surpluses. Still. China's current bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. is about one-quarter of America's huge and growing trade deficit, which is about 7% of U.S. GDP so far in 2006.

Section 3004 fails to recognize that persistent trade surpluses in China and trade deficits in the U.S. reflect very high saving in China and unusually low saving the U.S., an imbalance that no exchange rate change can correct. China's saving is even higher than its own extraordinarily high domestic investment of 40% of GDP, whereas saving in the U.S. is very low relative to a more normal level of domestic investment of 16% to 17% of GDP. The result is that China (like many other countries in Asia) naturally runs an overall current account surplus while the U.S. runs a current account deficit.

This large current account deficit -- more in goods than in services -- reflects borrowing from the rest of the world to cover its saving deficiency. Without this saving transfer allowing the U.S. to spend more on goods and services than it produces, the U.S. would suffer a credit crunch. Interest rates would increase so that investment -- both industrial and residential -- would fall. If this cessation of net foreign lending to the U.S. happened suddenly causing the current account deficit to fall quickly, and if there was no correction in America's saving deficiency, the U.S. economy would be forced into a sharp cyclical downturn similar to the "credit crunch" of 1991-92. On the other hand, if reduction in net foreign lending was gradual and spread over many years, the cost would be that America's longer term economic growth would slow as domestic investment and the current account deficit fell in tandem as a proportion of GDP.

Two main points must be recognized. First, an exchange rate change cannot correct America's current account and saving-investment imbalance. Second, if the saving rate in the U.S. were to increase gradually through time, then its current account deficit would gradually diminish -- without requiring any substantial change in nominal dollar exchange rates with major trading partners including China.

Increased U.S. saving must come from two sources: the federal government and the household sector. (U.S. corporate saving from retained profits remains robust.) Strenuous efforts must be made reduce the U.S. federal fiscal deficit, which at 3% to 4% of GDP, is a terrific drain on national saving. Tax revenues have fallen to an unduly low level by international standards. Dealing with deficient, perhaps negative, household saving is conceptually a much trickier problem. But some program of "forced" saving, from a national pension plan above and beyond Social Security contributions, should be considered. Singapore's Provident Fund could be a good model.

However, suppose the U.S. current account deficit is misdiagnosed as an exchange rate problem as with Section 3004. More than 20 years ago, when Japan had the largest bilateral trade surplus with the U.S., the U.S. government exerted continual pressure on Japan to appreciate the yen. Indeed, the yen went all the way from 360 to the dollar in 1971 to peak out at just 80 to the dollar in April 1995. This induced a bubble in Japanese stock and land prices in the late 1980s, which collapsed in 1991. A deflationary slump and a zero interest liquidity trap followed resulting in Japan's "lost decade" of the '90s. But the higher yen led to no obvious reduction in Japan's trade surplus as a share of its slumping GDP. The fall in domestic imports from the sluggish economy offset the reduced growth in Japan's exports from the higher yen.

Could the same thing happen to China? From 1994 through to July 21, 2005, China had fixed its exchange rate at 8.28 yuan per dollar by focusing its national monetary policy on maintaining that rate. The idea was to use the dollar exchange rate to anchor China's price level at a time when great financial transformation made domestic monetary indicators difficult to interpret. And this policy was successful in ironing out China's previous "roller coaster ride" in domestic price inflation and growth rates. Its high inflation of the mid 1990s came down and converged to that in the U.S. -- as the principle of relative purchasing power parity would suggest.

Now China has come under great pressure -- mainly from the U.S. -- to appreciate the renminbi. Since July 21, 2005, the renminbi has appreciated slowly -- only about 3.5% so far. But Section 3004 is an important part of continuing American political pressure on China for further appreciation. In 2006, China's year-over-year CPI inflation has fallen to just 1%, whereas America's is over 3%. Clearly, any substantial further appreciation will push China into a situation where its CPI begins to fall. To be sure, China's real economy remains robust. But if it is continually forced to appreciate the renminbi because bad economic theory suggests that a higher renminbi will eventually reduce its trade and saving surplus, the possibility of a Japanese-style deflationary slump cannot be ruled out.

So, in an ideal world, on what basis should Presidents Hu and Bush agree to reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries? China needs to increase private consumption in order to reduce its saving glut -- and its new five-year plan, which in its newly marketized economy can only be indicative, points in this direction. But the U.S. needs to drastically rein in the federal budget deficit in order to reduce the national saving deficiency. If China keeps its side of the agreement but the U.S. does not, then China's reduced trade surplus, i.e., less lending to the U.S., will mean higher interest rates here and abroad. But, whether or not such a broad agreement is implemented, Secretary Snow's narrower job of interpreting Section 3004 is straightforward: China is not a currency manipulator and the yuan/dollar rate is best left more or less where it is.

Mr. McKinnon is professor of economics at Stanford.
救救人民币


上任以来首次访问美国的中国国家主席胡锦涛或许对东道国政府在国际经济问题上有时采取的模棱两可但又合乎法律要求的做法深感困惑。根据美国公法100-418号第3004款，对于中国这样对全球其他国家有经常项目盈余或对美国有高额双边贸易顺差的国家，美国财政部应对其是否操纵汇率，阻止国际收支的有效调整或者在国际贸易中获得不公正的竞争优势作出评估。

左右为难的财政部长斯诺(John Snow)是否愿意将中国列为“汇率操纵国”并相应采取某些制裁措施呢？这个问题可以说是当前中美关系中最关键的“著火点”。不幸的是，美国国会议员和许多经济学家（如果还不是大多数的话）都没能认识到中国实行钉住汇率制度的动机所在：他们选择这种制度安排是为保证国内金融稳定，而不是为了在国际出口市场获得不应有的贸易优势。上述法律条文将经常项目盈余视为所涉及国家操纵汇率的实质性证据，这是错误的想法。

的确，中国的贸易顺差非常庞大，而且还有可能继续扩大。从2000年到2004年，中美贸易顺差在世界各国对美贸易中是最高的。但2004年之后，石油出口国对美顺差合计规模一直都高于中国。

不过，两者关键的不同之处在于，中国的顺差主要来自制造业产品出口，这个出口大国让美国制造业感到了很大竞争压力，而进口石油和天然气等自然资源则被视为向美国企业输血的必要做法。由此可以理解，为什么国会议员们认为来自中国的是“不公正”的竞争，而顺差更大的石油出口国则没有这顶帽子。而且，在美国庞大且不断上升的贸易赤字里，对中国的“赤字”已占到四分之一左右。今年截至目前，美国的贸易赤字已接近国内生产总值(GDP)的7%。

第3004款不能分辨出这样一个事实，即中国长期的贸易顺差及美国的贸易逆差反映了中美两国在储蓄率方面一高一低两个极端的情况。这种差距靠汇率调整是无力改变的。中国人的储蓄额甚至比国内投资额(占GDP的40%)还多；相比之下，美国的国内投资占国内生产总值16%-17%，处于一个比较正常的水平，而储蓄水平更是低得多。结果是，中国（像其他许多亚洲国家一样）很自然地总体上处于经常项目盈余状态，而美国处于赤字状态。

造成美国巨大的经常项目赤字（来自商品贸易的部分大于服务）的原因之一是美国从其他国家借钱来弥补自身储蓄的不足。如果没有这些来自别国的储蓄使美国人得以消费更多商品、享受更多服务，美国将发生信贷危机。利率会升高，投资（无论是工业投资还是住宅投资）会下降。如果从外国的净借款突然减少，并引起经常项目赤字迅速下降，而美国人储蓄不足的情况没有改变，那么，美国经济将被迫进入一个类似1991-92年“信贷危机”时期的周期性下滑阶段。另一方面，如果这种减少是逐步的、延续多年的，那么，随著国内投资和经常项目赤字相对于国内生产总值的比例相应下降，美国的长期经济增长也将放缓。

有两个要点必须认清。首先，汇率调整并不能纠正美国经常项目赤字以及储蓄与投资关系的失衡。其次，如果美国的储蓄率能随著时间的推移而逐渐增长，那么经常项目赤字也就会逐渐减少──从而无需对美元兑主要贸易伙伴国货币名义汇率作任何重大调整，包括人民币。

美国储蓄规模的增长必定来自两个渠道：联邦政府和普通居民。（美国企业利润留存的储蓄很丰厚。）美国政府必须做出艰苦努力，削减联邦财政赤字。目前占GDP 3%-4%的赤字规模不啻是吸干全国储蓄的无底洞。用国际标准衡量，美国政府的税收收入已经严重偏低。要解决美国人偏低甚至已是负值的储蓄问题，从理论上讲是一个比较棘手的难题。但可以考虑带些“强迫”色彩的措施，比如在社会保障(Social Security)计划之外再构建一套全国性的退休金计划。在这方面，新加坡的公积金(Provident Fund)是一个很值得借鉴的模式。

但是，设想一下将美国经常项目赤字的原因错误地断定为汇率问题所致，那会怎样呢？20多年前，当日本对美国出现创纪录的双边贸易顺差时，美国政府持续向日本施压，要求其提高日圆汇率。日圆果真从1971年的1美元兑360日圆一路飙升，直到1995年4月达到1美元兑80日圆的顶点。但由此也引发了80年代末期日本股市和地产市场的严重泡沫，1991年泡沫破灭后日本随即步入通货紧缩时代，陷入零利率怪圈，整个90年代成为日本“失落的十年”。但是，尽管日本GDP迅速下滑，日圆升值也并没有显著压低日本贸易顺差占其GDP的比例。实际上，经济低迷导致的进口萎缩抵消了日圆升值使出口减少的影响。

中国会重演这一幕吗？1994年至2005年7月21日，中国将人民币汇率维持在1美元兑人民币8.28元一线，并调整国内货币政策来保证这一点。这套政策的理念是，中国正在经历重大的金融转型期，国内各项货币指标很难解读，因此借用美元汇率来锚定中国的价格水平。这在熨平前一次国内价格激增和经济飞速增长时已经见效。90年代中期高高在上的通货膨胀率逐步回落，向美国靠拢──这一现象验证了相对购买力平价理论。

现在，中国承受著要求人民币升值的巨大压力，这压力主要来自美国。2005年7月21日以来，人民币一直在缓慢升值──迄今只有3.5%。但3004款是促使美国继续向中国施压要求人民币升值的重要内容。2006年，中国CPI指数已降至1%，而美国同一指标超过3%。显然，人民币进一步大幅升值会将中国推入CPI开始下滑的境地。的确，中国的实体经济仍然活力十足，但如果在错误理论指导下迫使人民币升值，就不能排除发生类似日本通货紧缩式经济衰退的可能。

那么，在最理想的情况下，胡锦涛和布什应该在什么基础上达成调整两国贸易失衡的共识呢？中国应该鼓励私人消费，以便消化巨额储蓄。中国刚刚制订的新的五年规划已经指明了这一方向。但美国必须采取积极措施，严格控制联邦预算赤字，以弥补国内储蓄的不足。如果中国信守承诺，但美国不了了之，那么中国减少的贸易顺差（即减少对美国的借款）就意味著美国及世界各地的利率会进一步上升。但是，不论这样一项广泛共识能否达成并实施，美国财政部长斯诺对3004条款的解读都应该是直截了当的：中国并不是一个汇率操纵国，人民币兑美元汇率最好基本保持现状。

（编者按：本文作者罗纳德?麦金农(Ronald I. McKinnon)是斯坦福大学经济学教授，2005年出版了Exchange Rates under the East Asian Dollar Standard: Living with Conflicted Virtue一书）

IMF：美元必须大幅贬值
IMF steps up pressure for dollar depreciation

The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday stepped up the pressure for far-reaching shifts in exchange rates, declaring that the dollar will have to depreciate “significantly” over the medium term if global economic imbalances are to be resolved in an orderly fashion.

In its clearest statement to date on this highly-charged subject, the IMF said it was essential that currencies in Asia and of oil exporters were allowed to appreciate as part of the required “realignment of exchange rates”. But it shied away from giving any specific figures as to the extent of appreciation required.

The statement came in the IMF’s twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, published on Wednesday, which highlighted global imbalances as the biggest threat to what was otherwise an “unusually favourable” economic environment.

It said global growth had been surprisingly robust in late 2005 and raised its estimates from September for 2006 and 2007 by 0.6 percentage points and 0.3 points to 4.9 per cent and 4.7 per cent respectively. This year is set to be the fourth in a row in which global growth has exceeded 4 per cent.

The IMF sharply increased its estimates for growth in Japan, to 2.8 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent next, declaring that the expansion there is now “well-established”. It also raised its forecasts for China and India significantly, with other increases for oil exporters.


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But the IMF remained sceptical on the strength of the rebound in the eurozone, inching its growth forecast up to 2 per cent this year, but down to 1.9 per cent next. It said growth remained heavily reliant on exports, with domestic consumption particularly weak in Germany.

The IMF now sees the US growing at 3.4 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent next, a little faster this year and slower next than earlier estimates. It cautioned that a flattening out in US house prices could have a bigger effect on consumption than some studies show.

It expects the UK economy to recover to 2.5 per cent growth this year, followed by 2.7 per cent in 2007.


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In keeping with the stronger pace of expected global growth, the IMF now expects consumer price inflation in industrialised economies to remain at 2.3 per cent this year and ease back only to 2.1 per cent next. It correspondingly revised up its estimates of short term market interest rates over the next two years.

The IMF said global financial market conditions “remain very favourable, characterised by unusually low risk premiums and volatility”. It argued that a flattening yield curve need not signal a slowdown ahead, though increased investment - and therefore lower corporate savings - could push up long term interest rates.

The IMF said this year could prove a “watershed year” in which countries either capitalised on benign circumstances to address global imbalances, or spurned the opportunity. Exchange rate shifts would have to be accompanied by rebalancing of demand across the world, with steps to increase savings in the US, raise consumption in China, investment in the rest of Asia and boost productivity growth in the non-tradeable goods sectors in Europe and Japan.

The World Economic Outlook also cautioned against becoming complacent about high oil prices. It said consumers may still be treating current increases as temporary, rather than permanent losses. With excess capacity low, the market is vulnerable to shocks.

Moreover, it said recent price increases had been driven not by a surprising strength of demand for oil, but deepening fears about both short- and long-term supply.
IMF：美元必须大幅贬值

国际货币基金组织(IMF)昨天表示，如果希望全球经济失衡得到有序解决，中期内美元就必须“大幅”贬值。该组织同时加大压力，要求对汇率进行影响深远的改变。

这是国际货币基金组织在这一争论激烈的问题上最明确的表态。该组织表示，在必须采取的部分“汇率重新调整”措施中，作为必要平衡措施的一部分，亚洲各国和石油出口国必须让其货币升值。但该组织没有给出所需升值幅度的具体数据。

这一声明来自国际货币基金组织一年两次的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)。报告着重指出，全球失衡是经济环境面临的最大威胁，如果没有这一因素，经济环境应该“非常有利”。


报告表示，2005年后期全球经济增长异常强劲。报告同时还提高了自2006年9月起和2007年的经济增长预测，分别提高了0.6和0.3个百分点，至4.9%和4.7%。今年将是全球经济增长连续第四年高于4%。

国际货币基金组织预计，美国今年的经济增长率为3.4%，明年为3.3%，较早先的估计，今年的增长率有所提高，明年则有所下降。

基金组织称，今年可能是个“分水岭”，在这段时间里，各国要么利用良好的环境致力于解决全球失衡，要么就舍弃这个机会。汇率转变的同时，也必须对全球需求重新加以平衡，这需要采取各项措施，美国须增加国民储蓄，中国增加消费，亚洲其它地区增加投资，欧洲和日本提高非贸易商品部门的劳动生产率。

《世界经济展望》还警告说，不要对油价掉以轻心：消费者可能仍将目前的油价上涨看作临时而非永久性的损失。报告指出，由于剩余产能水平很低，石油市场极易受到冲击。