FOREX VIEW: US Current Account Monster Begins To Growl
- Once only mentioned in textbooks on economics, "current account deficit" has begun to take on a real meaning for financial markets, with almost as ominous a ring as deflation.
When the U.S. "current account deficit" is preceded by words such as massive, gaping, yawning or record-wide - and it always is these days - the scare factor for some foreign-exchange investors rises to the level of a 12-year-old boy reading a Stephen King novel.
It's not that many people really believe the deficit monster is ready to jump out of the closet anytime soon, but it's hard not to think "What if?" Could a financial shortfall become so uncontrollable and ravenous that it spells doom for the whole U.S. economy?
Currencies have a tendency to move rapidly and if, as many people believe, the Bush administration has effectively abandoned its strong dollar policy, the risk of foreign investors backing away from the U.S. is certainly greater, which could severely punish stock and bond markets.
Although last week's current account figures from the Commerce Department didn't have a dramatic impact on day-to-day trading, the deficit, at $136.1 billion for the first quarter of 2003 or just over 5% of gross domestic product, is mentioned more and more by analysts as a factor in the dollar's performance.
Certainly it isn't a new problem. The trade gap, the biggest component in the current account deficit, has been around for years. Economic gurus, up to the big kahuna himself, Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, have long warned about the sustainability of the deficit.
So why all the gloomy reaction to a statistical release that in the recent past scarcely got more than a line or two in daily foreign-exchange updates and analysis?
It ties into financing. As long as a deficit can be covered, it isn't really a problem. But if capital inflows were to dry up, the current account deficit would have to shrink, either through a slump in domestic demand or a fall in the dollar, or both. This clearly would have massive fallout in the U.S. but would also ripple across the rest of the world, which is why many officials in other rich economies routinely warn about the size of the deficit.
Potentially Terrifying Scenario
During the boom years of the 1990's, it didn't matter of course, because the roughly $1.5 billion in inflows needed every day to finance it was flowing into the U.S. from abroad. Foreign-based investors were snapping up any type of dollar-denominated asset, whether paper, such as stocks and bonds, or tangible, such as factories or U.S. companies. In fact, the deficit was seen as proof of the confidence foreign investors had in the U.S. and its currency.
The flip side is what happens when foreign investors no longer want dollar-denominated assets. A scenario in which simultaneous declines in asset prices and the dollar's exchange rate feed into each other in an unstoppable downward spiral is terrifying indeed. It's the risk of widespread disorder in financial markets that's dangerous, not the deficit itself.
In a research note on the first-quarter figures from Goldman Sachs, analyst Thomas Stolper wrote that combined foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows in the first three months of the year were equivalent to only 1.4% of the U.S. GDP, much smaller than the financing gap.
On a similar theme, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said foreign direct investment in the U.S. shrank to $30 billion last year, dropping the U.S. to fourth place among the OECD's members after topping the list of most attractive countries for foreign capital for a decade.
Net FDI inflows to the U.S. peaked at $162 billion in 2000, but turned negative to the tune of about $100 billion the following year. In 2002, about $90 billion more in FDI left the U.S. than entered, said the OECD.
Stolper, at Goldman Sachs, noted that "net inflows to the corporate bond market remain the main source of financing for the current account deficit." But if deficits in the U.S. balance of payments persist at this size, "we expect the dollar to weaken against most other freely floating major currencies," he wrote.
"In addition, the continued external deficits will increase the political pressure on Asian countries to let their currencies appreciate," Stolper stated.
To guard their own export-oriented economies, China and Japan won't allow their currencies to increase in value versus the dollar. Because of China's enormous trade surplus with the U.S., the yuan's peg to the dollar has become a particular irritant to U.S. manufacturers. Whether the U.S. government has any realistic possibilities of influencing the trade and monetary policies of major Asian countries is doubtful, but it's not unreasonable for analysts to bring up the issue.
Yet however depressing the implications of the U.S. current account situation, it's a long stretch before the scary figures materialize into an acute threat to either the dollar or the U.S. economy. The very fact that China and Japan have accumulated huge reserves of dollars, most of which end up invested in U.S. securities, is at least, in the short run, a stabilizing factor in itself.
The dollar may not be able to correct as far as some U.S. manufacturers would like, but the policies of China, Japan and some other Asian countries are also a significant hindrance for a dollar decline getting out of hand.
What's more, as officials in the Bush administration routinely argue, one way to solve the imbalances caused by the deficit is for Japan and euro zone economies to boost their own growth and attract more investment. If the rest of the world were to grow more, the U.S. wouldn't have to be the sole global economic locomotive.
So far, there's no overwhelming evidence of a mass flight from U.S. assets. In assessing last week's data, foreign exchange strategists at ABN-Amro noted that net FDI only showed a deficit of $3.2 billion in the first quarter of 2003. The data "hints that the worst of the FDI drought for the U.S. is now in the rear view mirror," the analysts said. In turn, that means "the continuing pressure on the (dollar) from the lack of quality financing has probably passed its peak."
It may ultimately come down to the realization that a crash for the dollar isn't in anyone's interest, whether in the U.S. or abroad. As long as markets remain orderly, the deficit monster can't even make very scary noises, much less jump out of the closet.
美国经常项目赤字带来巨大隐患
曾几何时，“经常项目赤字”还只是经济学教科书中的一个概念，而今它却成了实实在在影响金融市场的一个因素。恐怕只有通货紧缩这样的不祥之物可以与之相提并论。
见到美国的“经常项目赤字”之前被冠之以“庞大”、“无底洞般”、“创纪录水平”等形容词的时候－这些天来实际情况正是如此－一些外汇市场投资者每每产生无以名状的恐惧之感。
这并不是说，许多人真的相信经常项目赤字这头猛兽很快就会破笼而出、危害美国经济，但是人们很难不考虑这样的问题：如果真是这样，市场会怎样？人们该怎么办？资金匮乏是否会变得难以控制，进而导致整个美国经济走向没落？
外汇市场总是能对种种变化迅速作出反应，而且，如果许多人没有看错，布什(Bush)政府事实上的确已经放弃了强势美元政策，外国投资者弃美国资产而去的风险必定有增无减，而这将使股票和债券市场严重受挫。
虽然美国商务部(Commerce Department)上周公布的第一季度经常项目数据对市场日常交易的影响并不显著，但在分析师随后对美元的表现的评价中，这一数据却被屡屡提及。今年第一季度，美国的经常项目赤字达1,361亿美元，占国民生产总值的比率已超出5%。
经常项目赤字并不是什么新问题。在该指标中占最大比重的贸易逆差更是由来已久。经济界的领袖人物，包括一言九鼎的联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)，长期以来一直提醒人们当心美国经济对赤字的承受力。
那么，市场何以会对一项统计数据作出如此沮丧的反应呢？过去，市场对这项指标充其量也不过就是在每天的外汇市场最新消息或分析报告里只言片语地提提而已。
答案是，它关系到美国的财政问题。只要经常项目赤字能为资本项目盈余所抵消，问题就不会太严重。但资本流入如果日渐枯竭，那么也只有收窄经常项目赤字才能实现收支平衡。要达到这个目的，或是通过减少内需，或是通过美元贬值，或是双管齐下。这显然会给美国经济造成巨大的影响，同时还将波及世界其他国家和地区。有鉴于此，许多其他发达国家的官员也常常会警告美国注意赤字的规模。
可怕的隐患
在九十年代的经济繁荣时期，经常项目赤字当然不成问题，因为弥补赤字所需要的每天15亿美元的资金源源不断地从世界各地流入美国。
那时，外国投资者对任何一种能到手的美元资产－无论是股票、债券等无形资产，还是工厂、企业等有形资产－都来者不拒、照单全收。经常项目赤字数据实际上已被视为外国投资者对美国和美元信心程度的反映。
但当外国投资者不再追捧美元资产时，情况就不一样了。资产价格和美元汇率同时以不可阻挡之势螺旋式下跌且互相推波助澜的情形的确非常可怕。真正危险的不是赤字本身，而是金融市场面临的失序状况蔓延的风险。
高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)分析师托马斯?斯托普尔(Thomas Stolper)在有关第一季度数据的研究报告中指出，今年前三个月，外国直接投资和各种流入资产总计仅相当于美国当期GDP的1.4%，远低于经常项目赤字的规模。
而经济合作与发展组织(the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)在有关同一问题的报告中说，去年，对美国的外国直接投资收缩至300亿美元，美国在经合组织成员国吸引外国投资规模的排名已跌落至第四位，而此前十年，美国一直是这方面最具吸引力的国家。
2000年，流入美国的外国直接投资达到1,620亿美元的最高水平，但次年这一指标即下降到1,000亿美元。经合组织说，2002年，流出美国的外国直接投资比流入的投资多出900亿美元。
高盛的斯托普尔说，净流入美国公司债券市场的资金是弥补经常项目赤字的主要资金来源。但是，如果国际收支方面的赤字长期保持现在的规模，那么，美元兑其他大多数自由浮动的主要货币的汇率势必会走软。
另外他还表示，持续的对外贸易逆差还将使美国加大要求亚洲国家升值货币的政治压力。
而为了保护本国的外向型经济，中国和日本不会听任它们的货币升值。由于中国对美国存在巨额贸易顺差，人民币与美元挂钩的汇率制度令美国的制造商们如梗在喉。虽然对于美国是否有能力能影响亚洲主要国家的贸易和货币政策大可存疑，但如果有分析师提出这方面的问题，那并非没有道理。
不过，无论美国巨额经常项目赤字带来的隐患是如何令人沮丧，它对美元和美国经济暂时还不会构成严重威胁。中国和日本积聚了庞大的美元外汇储备，而这些储备大多又投资于美国证券市场，这一事实至少在短期内仍是一个稳定性因素。
虽然美元可能无法回升到领美国制造商感到满意的水平，但也要看到，中国、日本和其他一些亚洲国家执行的货币政策也是防止美元跌势失控的重要制约因素。
还有，正如布什政府的一些官员时常指出的那样，要解决因经常项目赤字造成的不平衡状况，日本和欧元区国家扩大自身的增长、吸引更多的外国投资也是有效途径之一。如果世界其他地区的经济能进一步增长，那么美国也就不必承担拉动全球经济增长的唯一的火车头的角色了。
目前来看，还没有出现美国资产大规模外逃的明显迹象。荷兰银行(ABN-Amro)外汇策略师在分析上周的数据时指出，2003年第一季度，外国直接投资净值是负的32亿美元。分析师说，这一数字表明，外国投资减少的情况已经渡过了最糟糕的时期，这也就是说，由于优质资产不足而对美元产生的持续压力可能已经度过了高峰期。
或许人们最终会认识到，不论是对美国还是对其他国家，美元汇率崩溃不符合任何一方的利益。只要市场能维持有序状态，经常项目赤字这头怪兽就不会造成太大恐慌，更不会破笼而出、危害一方。
