Free-trade Pacts In Asia Face China Resistance
By Michael Vatikiotis In Hong Kong And Murray Hiebert In Washington
PENANG CHIEF MINISTER Koh Tsu Koon has a proposition for foreign manufacturing firms. "Please, by all means go to China, but don't put all your eggs in one basket," he says. As countries such as Malaysia confront the migration of manufacturing to China, people like Koh, who has overseen Penang's development as an electronics-manufacturing hub for more than a decade, are counting on the development of specialized skills to sustain the region's industrial relevance.
Koh calls this strategy "China Plus One." "We cannot do everything China is doing or wants to do," says Koh. "But we can explore complementarity and synergy." For Penang, this means leveraging labour skills and experience in the electronics sector to focus on research and development, design and prototype engineering. It means aiming at producing original-equipment-manufacturer branded goods for the China market; it means cultivating backroom operations using Malaysia's linguistic skills in English and Chinese. There are early signs of progress. Citigroup uses Penang as the base for all its trade-processing operations in Asia.
It's just as well that Penang is thinking ahead: Soon China and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will be more closely bound together under a free-trade agreement (FTA) that proposes to sweep away barriers to trade and investment within a decade. Many hurdles could disappear as early as 2004 for some Asean members -- well ahead of market-opening deadlines agreed with the World Trade Organization.
Opinion is divided about what this means for the region. Some economists regard the proposed FTA with China as a serious economic threat to Southeast Asia and predict that manufacturers will flee from Asean to locate nearer the larger China market. Others are more sanguine, seeing an opportunity for Asean to unify its own disjointed market and stimulate higher productivity to compete with China.
But for China, which measures Asean as its fifth-largest trading partner after the United States, Japan, the European Union and Hong Kong, there's more than trade at stake. For Beijing, cementing closer economic ties with neighbouring East Asian states is also about establishing regional influence and leadership at the expense of the U.S. and other major economic powers. As Naoko Munakata, a researcher at Japan's Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), puts it: "China . . . hopes to form at some point a counter power comparable to the U.S. and Europe by unifying Asian countries."
The geopolitical dimensions of China's economic diplomacy are betrayed by the concerted effort by Beijing to embrace Asean as fast as possible from all directions. At an Asean foreign ministers' meeting in Phnom Penh in June, China proposed a bold and broad-ranging "Strategic Partnership" with Asean, covering areas of economic and political cooperation.
The idea has not been aired publicly. But one senior Asean official describes the proposal as "an ambitious document whose sub-text is to keep the Americans and the Japanese at arm's length from Asean, or at least to give China a special relationship with Asean." Asked for comment, the Asean Secretariat in Jakarta says the new partnership, which could be announced at an Asean summit later this year, "will show to the world that Asean and China will remain good partners and neighbours to promote peace and stability in the region." It is projected as a platform for both sides to "work and build a solid and concrete regional economic and security cooperation partnership." The strategic partnership will "help both sides to work closely on regional and international issues such as enhancing the role of the United Nations, promoting free and fair global trade, globalization, etc." An Asean spokesman adds that the proposal "is not targeted at any other country or organization."
It's not clear yet whether Asean will accept so close a binding with China's interests -- or how Asean's other major ally, the U.S., will react. But the China-Asean FTA given the green light in November 2001 is fast becoming a reality, as China accelerates the lowering of tariffs under an "early harvest" scheme that offers Asean, except the Philippines, earlier access to the Chinese market than other WTO members. The scheme covers mainly agricultural produce and kicks in on January 1 next year. Between then and 2006 tariffs on 600 items will be slashed to zero for the six more-developed Asean nations, according to a Commerce Ministry official in Beijing. Individual Asean members and China can add products beyond those groups already covered by the early harvest programme, but these are subject to negotiations between individual members and China.
"It's an ongoing process," says Malaysian International Trade Minister Rafidah Aziz. She explains that the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome delayed talks that were supposed to be held with China in April or May. She says there's an air of urgency. "We want to have some interim framework on the early harvest by the next meeting of Asean economic ministers in September. It's on track, only Sars interrupted the process." The Commerce Ministry official in Beijing says that a new round of talks is scheduled to be held in Vietnam in August.
Meanwhile, China has worked through Thailand, its closest ally in Asean, to dangle the fruits of market access before Southeast Asia. A fruit-and-vegetable agreement signed in June gives Thailand access to China for a broad range of its tropical fruit and vegetables. In return, Thailand is lobbying for faster access to the early harvest scheme, pushing for October this year rather than next January. "We want to go as fast as possible in the bilateral context," says a senior Thai diplomat.
Asean certainly looks to gain from fast-track tariff-cutting in the short term. China's total trade with Asean is about $55 billion, or about half the value of China's trade with the U.S. According to Chinese figures, imports from Asean to mainland China grew by almost 60% in the first four months of 2003. China's exports to Asean grew by 29% in the same period. But there are fears that this picture is changing. "China is dumping more of its exports into Asean and it is worrisome," says the Thai diplomat.
Jonathan Anderson, head of Asia-Pacific research at UBS Securities in Hong Kong, believes that despite the "win-win" slogan that China applies to its economic diplomacy, the pact will in the longer term be in China's favour. "Chinese manufacturers are looking to break into Southeast Asian export markets and the Chinese economy would also benefit from a stable supply of commodities and raw materials," he says.
Anderson underscores the importance of the political element. "China's economy has massively outperformed the rest of the region over the past five years, and the authorities clearly want to be seen as giving something to China's neighbours. And a China-led FTA would be a sizeable step toward cementing its role as the new leader of the pack, neatly supplanting Japan in the process."
China appears to have taken advantage of Japan's weak economic situation, which makes Tokyo leery of bold trade liberalization, suggests Munakata at the RIETI. The U.S. meanwhile, has woken up to the threat posed by a China-dominated East Asia and is pushing for FTAs with Asean members. Singapore took the lead in May by concluding an FTA with Washington, and, along with Malaysia is pushing for a similar agreement with Tokyo. Asean is also negotiating an FTA with India.
While it struggles to counter China's growing influence, Southeast Asia doesn't need to be the loser in a closer relationship with its giant neighbour. Greater access to China's market could have a cathartic effect on the region's own slow-moving liberalization process.
"Southeast Asia does not offer anything close to a free market in labour, capital or goods," argues Anderson at UBS. "If an FTA with China can force Asean to further liberalize their own economies and move closer to a unified economic space, this could be a source of growth and new investment at home, in manufacturing as well as in primary resources."
Ernest Bower, president of the U.S.-Asean Business Council, agrees that the accord offers the potential for new investment in Southeast Asia. "We have members who are fascinated by the China-Asean FTA. They see this as an opportunity. For example [General Electric] might have an engine plant in southern China that might have a parts plant in Malaysia. Let's say they pay 60% tariffs. If [parts] could move tariff-free, it would build their worldwide competitiveness."
Nicholas Lardy , an expert on China's economy at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, agrees. "To be WTO-consistent they will have to let [foreign] companies in Asean countries export to China. Once the FTA is in place, all producers should have the same access. How much domestic content will be required still has to be defined . . . The devil is in the details."
中国拥抱东盟意欲何为？
马来西亚槟榔屿州首席部长Koh Tsu Koon对国外制造商们有一个建议：到中国去投资肯定没问题，但千万不要把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。
随著马来西亚等国家面临制造业向中国的迁移，诸如Koh等人士指望著本地能发展专门的技能，在亚太地区的产业调整中保有自己适当的位置。10多年以来，Koh一直负责将槟榔屿州发展成电子产品制造业中心。
Koh把这种策略称为"中国+1"模式。他说，他们无法做到中国正在做的或打算做的事，但他们可以发展一些互补性和具备协同效应的产业。对槟榔屿州来说，这意味著要利用其人员在电子行业的技能和经验，把著重点放在研发、设计和样机制造工艺上。意味著目标要放在为中国市场生产原设备制造商的品牌产品。 有一些前期迹象表明现在已经取得了一些进展。花旗集团(Citigroup)就将槟榔屿州作为其在亚洲处理所有交易业务的基地。
槟榔屿州未雨绸缪倒也无妨：按照中国和东南亚国家联盟(Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 简称：东盟)达成的自由贸易协定，双方将在10年内撤销贸易和投资限制，因此中国和东盟10个成员国的经济将很快更紧密地联系在一起。
对部分东盟成员国来说，许多限制最早会在2004年就取消，大大早于和世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)达成的市场开放最后期限。
这对该地区是福是祸人们莫衷一是。部分经济学家将中国－东盟自由贸易协定视为对东南亚国家的严重经济威胁，并预言制造商将从东盟国家外逃，转而到接近大中华市场的地方安营扎寨。另外一些人则乐观得多，他们看到了东盟统一其四分五裂的市场并刺激生产力提高以与中国竞争的机遇。
但对中国来说，东盟是其在美国、日本、欧盟和香港之后的第五大贸易伙伴，而利害所在不仅仅是贸易问题。与东亚邻国发展更密切的经济联系也可以确立北京的地区性影响力和领导地位，同时削弱美国和其他主要经济强国在该地区的影响。日本经济产业研究所(Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, RIETI) 研究员宗像直子(Naoko Munakata)写道，中国.....希望通过联合亚洲国家，形成在某种程度上可以和美国和欧盟抗衡的力量。
北京试图尽快全方位同东盟结盟的努力泄露了中国经济外交的地缘政治考虑。在6月份于金边召开的东盟部长会议上，中国提议与东盟建立一个大胆且范围广泛的"战略性伙伴"关系，涉及合作领域包括经济和政治等方面。
这个想法尚未公开宣布。但东盟一位高级官员将这个提议描述为一个"雄心勃勃的宣言"，潜台词是让美国日本和东盟保持距离，或至少让中国和东盟保持一种特殊关系。
雅加达的东盟秘书处在回答采访时称，新的伙伴关系将向世界表明，东盟和中国将保持良好的伙伴和邻居关系，以促进本地区的和平和稳定。这将会成为双方努力建立稳固和坚实的地区性经济和安全合作伙伴的基石。伙伴关系还将有助于双方在提升联合国的作用和促进自由公平的全球贸易及全球化等地区和国际问题上保持紧密合作。东盟的一位发言人称，提议不针对任何其他国家或组织。新的伙伴关系最早会在今年稍后的东盟高峰会上宣布。
目前尚不清楚东盟是否会接受将自己和中国的利益如此紧密地联系在一起，以及东盟的其他主要盟友美国会作何反应。但2001年11月批准的中国－东盟自由贸易协定正在迅速变为现实。按照"提早受益"的计划，中国加速降低了关税，给予东盟除菲律宾之外的成员国比其他世界贸易组织成员国更早进入中国市场的机会。这个计划主要涉及农产品领域，从明年1月1日起生效。据中国商务部(Ministry of Commerce)的官员称，从2004年到2006年，东盟6个较为发达国家的600种商品进入中国市场的关税将会被削减到零。东盟个别成员和中国还可以在这个范围之外进行关税减让谈判。
马来西亚国际贸易部长阿齐兹(Rafidah Aziz)称，这是一个持续的过程。她解释说，严重急性呼吸道综合症(Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, SARS)的爆发使预定在4、5月份的谈判推迟。现在有一种紧迫感。他们希望在东盟经济部长9月份的下一次会议前，能就"提早受益"计划拟定出过渡方案。中国商务部的官员称，新一轮谈判定于8月份在越南举行。
与此同时，中国已与在东盟的最密切伙伴泰国达成先于东南亚其他国家的市场准入协议。6月份签署的水果和蔬菜协议使泰国能够向中国出口大量热带水果蔬菜。作为回报，泰国极力游说加快推进"提早受益"计划，希望将时间从明年1月份提早到今年10月份。泰国一位高级外交官说，他们希望双边的市场开放能够尽快实施。
东盟固然有望短期内从快速关税减让中受益。中国和东盟每年的贸易额大约为550亿美元。按照中国公布的数据，这大概是中美贸易额的一半。2003年头4个月，中国从东盟的进口额增加了近60%，同期中国向东盟的出口只增加了29%。但人们担心这种状况正在改变。泰国外交官说，中国出口产品越来越多地倾销到东盟国家，这令人担忧。
UBS Securities驻香港的亚太地区研究负责人乔纳森?安德森(Jonathan Anderson)认为，虽然中国在经济外交上一贯高喊"双赢"口号，但中国东盟协定从长远来看对中国更为有利。
他说，中国的制造商正在设法打入东南亚国家出口市场，并且中国经济也从商品和原材料的稳定供应中受益。 安德森强调了政治因素的重要性。他说，过去5年来中国经济增长明显强于周边地区，中国当然希望让人们看到中国给周边国家带来了好处。以中国为主导的自由贸易协定是中国巩固其领导地位迈出的一大步，巧妙地取代了日本扮演的角色。
日本经济产业研究所的宗像直子认为，中国似乎利用了日本经济不振的机会，日本经济不振使得东京当局不敢冒然倡导大胆的贸易自由化措施。
美国方面对中国左右东亚局面的威胁感到不安，积极寻求同东盟国家达成自由贸易协定。新加坡带头和美国在5月份达成了自由贸易协定，马来西亚也试图和日本达成类似协议。东盟也在和印度就自由贸易协定进行磋商。
虽然要竭力抵消中国不断增加的影响力，但东南亚国家同其庞大的邻居保持密切关系也不是坏事。能够更便利地进入中国市场对该地区缓慢的贸易自由化进程可能会起到推动作用。
UBS Securities的安德森说，东南亚国家的劳动力、资本和商品都未实现自由流动。如果和中国的自由贸易协定能够使东盟进一步放开经济并统一市场，这可能会成为区内经济增长及制造业和初级资源行业投资增加的源泉。
美国－东盟商会(U.S.-Asean Business Council)总裁欧内斯特?鲍尔(Ernest Bower)认为中国东盟协定为东南亚国家提供了新投资的潜在机会。他们就有一些会员对中国东盟自由贸易协定非常有兴趣。他们认为这是一个机会。譬如说，通用电气在中国南部有一家引擎工厂，其零部件制造就可能是在马来西亚。假定现在关税是60%，如果零部件的关税为零，这对增强产品的全球竞争力就很有利。
华盛顿国际经济研究所(Institute for International Economics)的中国经济问题专家尼古拉斯?拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)说，要和世界贸易组织的要求一致，东盟国家的（外资）公司就会被允许将产品出口到中国。一旦自由贸易协定就位，所有的制造商都有相同的市场进入机会。但中国对国产化程度的要求有多大尚未作出......令人为难的东西都在细节里。
