Investors in Chinese Brewers May Find Patience Pays Off
Growing consolidation in China's beer sector and renewed efforts by foreign breweries to tap the thirsty middle-class market is likely to mean flat returns in the short term for investors in Chinese beer makers.
Most beer makers will need time to restructure the brewers they acquire, meaning a delay on big profits. But for those investors with patience, some Chinese beer stocks could bring good returns down the road.
For now, most analysts point to Tsingtao Brewery as the safest bet on Chinese beer.
For one, it produces Tsingtao Beer, China's best-known brew and the only brand with truly national distribution. Tsingtao has a growing presence in Taiwan and elsewhere in the world. Its early acquisition spree, which saw it snatch up 48 beer companies starting in 1995, means it has largely completed the integration process, boosting efficiency and profit margins. Tsingtao's rising profits will help it offset losses at the new breweries it acquires as it continues to expand, analysts say.
In addition, Anheuser-Busch, the world's largest brewer, signed an agreement in October with Tsingtao to increase its stake in the Chinese brewer to 27% during a seven-year period, from 9.9% now.
These strengths have helped Tsingtao's Class H shares -- stocks in companies based in China and traded in Hong Kong -- to nearly double in the past year. They closed up 1.5% Thursday at 6.80 Hong Kong dollars (87 U.S. cents), but most analysts say that is too expensive. Sun Hung Kai Research's Maggie Choi has a sell recommendation on Tsingtao. But as a long-term investment of three to five years, she says that even at the current price, there could be some upside.
"As Tsingtao consolidates its breweries, and its margins improve, its net profits can surge," she says.
Its yuan-denominated Class A shares listed in Shanghai are best avoided in favor of the cheaper Class H shares. The Class A shares edged down Thursday to 9.14 yuan ($1.10).
Not yet a Tsingtao, but perhaps fermenting into one, Beijing Yanjing Brewery is becoming a favorite of some analysts. Like Tsingtao, Yanjing Brewery is a top-three Chinese brewer, and has a strong brand, mainly in Beijing and the northeast, which can be a base for its expansion. It also has a growing presence in the U.S.
"Personally, I am optimistic about Yanjing's future, but in the coming years its profitability will be lower due to its recent acquisition activities," says Wang Feng, a beer analyst at Guotai Junan Securities . "While Tsingtao has reached a point of growing profitably, Yanjing is still in the process, and it's still too early to say when it will turn the corner," he says. Still, he says he expects Yanjing's integration work to be easier than Tsingtao's. Yanjing has acquired bigger brewers but fewer of them -- 15 since 1999 -- compared with Tsingtao's 48.
Mr. Wang points to Yanjing's latest purchase, the biggest beer deal among local Chinese breweries. Last month it announced it was buying a 38.15% stake in Huiquan Brewage Group, which has an annual production capacity of about 600,000 metric tons.
This deal is expected to help Yanjing gain ground in southern China, as Huiquan is the biggest brewery in Fujian Province, and because Fujian is close to Taiwan it will serve as a good base for exports. Tsingtao also serves its market in Taiwan from recent acquisitions in Fujian.
But Huiquan, which listed its shares in Shanghai earlier this year, has already posted a profit warning, saying its first-half profit would fall more than 50% because of the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome. That makes Huiquan unattractive, despite its link to Yanjing, says Mr. Wang. Shares in Huiquan edged down to 7.90 yuan Thursday.
As for Yanjing's Class A shares, Mr. Wang believes they are at a fair value and could rise in the future, but he says investors should be aware of the risks of expansion. They closed Thursday at 8.20 yuan, up 1.2%.
China Resources Enterprise, China's third top player, isn't well positioned for mergers and acquisitions, analysts say. It doesn't have a strong base or brand, like Tsingtao or Yanjing, that can serve as a core for its expansion.
China Resources also needs to iron out is its relationship with SABMiller, the world's second-largest brewer by volume. SABMiller, which has a 49% stake in a joint venture with China Resources, in June said its subsidiary was taking a 28.13% stake in China's fourth-largest brewer by volume, Harbin Brewery Group, with an option to lift the stake to 29.64% and become the largest shareholder. China Resources closed unchanged Thursday at HK$6.80.
Ms. Choi of Sun Hung Kai Research says SABMiller might have chosen to tie up with Harbin Brewery because China Resources, which has diverse business interests, seems to be slowing down on its beer-business expansion to focus on retail. While the news is good for Harbin Brewery, Ms. Choi says she still has a sell recommendation on Harbin Brewery because she considers it too expensive. Harbin edged up Thursday to HK$2.98.
投资中国啤酒业需耐心
随著中国啤酒行业的整合趋势日趋升温，中国啤酒市场在短期内不会给投资者带来多少回报。
大多数啤酒制造商都需要时间来重组它们收购的那些酿酒厂，因此不要指望这些公司在短期内可以实现高额利润。但对于那些耐心的投资者来说，随著时间的推移，投资一些中国啤酒类股是能够带来可观的回报的。
眼下大多数分析师都认为，青岛啤酒股份有限公司(Tsingtao Brewery Co. Ltd., Q.TBR, 简称：青岛啤酒)是最可靠的投资对象。
这是因为，首先，青岛啤酒是中国最知名的、也是唯一一个真正在全国市场销售的啤酒品牌。青岛啤酒在台湾和世界其他地方的业务也在一步步扩展。该公司最早的收购狂潮始于1995年，青岛啤酒至今已收购了48家啤酒公司。由此可见，该公司目前已完成了大部分的整合过程，效率和利润率都得到了提高。分析师表示，不断增长的利润将足以弥补该公司在持续扩张过程中因收购新公司所带来的损失。
此外，全球最大的啤酒公司安海斯公司(Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc., BUD)于去年10月和青岛啤酒签署了一份协议，将在7年时间内将该公司在青岛啤酒中的股权从目前的9.9%提高到27%。
上述种种因素推动青岛啤酒在香港上市的H股股价在过去一年中增长了一倍。该股周四涨1.5%至6.80港元（87美分），但大多数分析师认为该股股价过高。
新鸿基证券有限公司(Sun Hung Kai Research)的Maggie Choi对该股的评级是卖出。但她表示，从3至5年的长线投资角度看，该股有上涨空间。
她认为，随著青岛啤酒对旗下啤酒厂进行整合，公司的毛利就会得到提高，净利润也就能大幅上涨。
投资者应尽量避免投资在上海证券交易所上市的以人民币计价的A股，而投资估价较低的H股。青岛啤酒A股周四微幅下挫人民币9.14元（1.10美元）。
虽然不及青岛啤酒，北京燕京啤酒股份有限公司(Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co. Ltd., Q.BYB, 简称：燕京啤酒)在步步赶上，该股正成为一些分析师最看好的股票。和青岛啤酒一样，燕京啤酒是中国三大啤酒商之一，拥有较强的品牌知名度，尤其在北京和中国东北地区，品牌优势也是该公司进一步扩张的基础。同样，燕京啤酒在美国市场的占有率也在增长之中。
国泰君安证券公司(Guotai Junan Securities)的啤酒类股分析师王峰(Wang Feng, 音译)说，他本人更看好燕京啤酒未来的前景，但由于该公司近来不断进行收购，公司未来几年的利润可能会较低。
他表示，青岛啤酒已经达到了在盈利中增长的地步，而燕京啤酒还在向这个方向努力，现在预言该公司何时能扭亏为盈还为时尚早。然而，他预计燕京啤酒对并购企业的整合会比青岛啤酒容易些。燕京啤酒自1999年以来收购了15家酿酒厂，尽管数量不多，但规模都较大。青岛啤酒自1995年以来已经收购了48家啤酒公司。
王峰提到了燕京啤酒最新进行的一项收购，这是迄今为止中国国内啤酒商进行的最大一笔交易。上月，燕京啤酒宣布收购福建省惠泉啤酒集团股份有限公司(Huiquan Brewage Group Inc. Fujian China, 简称：惠泉啤酒)38.15%的股权，惠泉啤酒年生产能力约为600,000公吨。
这项交易预计将有助于燕京啤酒拓展中国南方市场，因为惠泉啤酒是福建省最大的啤酒制造商，而福建距台湾不远，是一个理想的出口基地。
惠泉啤酒于今年早些时候在上海证交所上市，公司最近警告称，由于非典型肺炎(SARS)爆发带来的负面影响，公司上半年利润预计将下滑50%以上。因此，尽管和燕京啤酒结盟，惠泉啤酒仍无法引起投资者的兴趣。该股周四下跌至7.90元。
王峰认为，就燕京啤酒A股表现来看，该股目前的股价是合理的，未来有上扬潜力，但是投资者也必须意识到扩张可能带来的风险。燕京啤酒周四上涨1.2%，至8.20元。
分析师说，华润创业有限公司(China Resources Enterprise Ltd., H.CRE, 简称：华润创业)作为中国第三大啤酒制造商，在并购方面条件较差。它没有象青岛啤酒和燕京啤酒那样拥有扎实的根基和著名的品牌，来作为业务扩张的坚实后盾。
华润创业还需要理清与SABMiller的关系，SABMiller就产量而言是全球第二大啤酒商。今年6月，SABMiller表示，该公司与华润创业的合资企业（SABMiller拥有49%的股权）将收购哈尔滨啤酒集团有限公司(Harbin Brewery Group Ltd., Q.HBY, 简称：哈尔滨啤酒)28.13%的股权，还有权将控股比例提高到29.64%而成为最大的股东。哈尔滨啤酒就产量而言是中国第四大啤酒商。华润创业周四收盘持平至6.80港元。
新鸿基证券的Maggie Choi指出，SABMiller之所以选择与哈尔滨啤酒结盟，是因为多元化经营的华润创业似乎在放缓在啤酒业的扩张步伐，而将业务重点转移到零售业。尽管这对于哈尔滨啤酒是一个好消息，Choi对哈尔滨啤酒的评级仍然是卖出，因为该股估价太高。哈尔滨啤酒周四上涨至2.98港元。
