Betting on AnnTaylor Lineup May Be Too Much of a Stretch
The new design team at AnnTaylor Stores will woo Wall Street Wednesday with a fashion show in New York featuring the retailer's coming fall collection. Like teenagers about to go to a nightclub, investors are giddy, having bid up shares of the specialty retailer 69% to $28.87 since its 52-week low in March.
Now comes the parental warning: AnnTaylor shares go up and down faster than zippers in a dressing room, so unless you are better at spotting fashion trends than Anna Wintour, sit this dance out.
In 2000, some investors, convinced that the retailer had an attractive fall line, bumped the stock up to $28 in late summer from $18 on a split-adjusted basis. But shoppers balked at a collection featuring orange and lime-green colors, as well as clothes cut too tight for comfort. By year's end, shares slumped into the midteens. The retailer's stock split on a 3-for-2 basis in May 2002.
AnnTaylor, which operates 603 stores nationwide, also stumbled in 2001. Analysts say that during the weeks following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, shoppers turned away from fancy party clothes. AnnTaylor's holiday-season attire suffered accordingly. The company notes that fewer people shopped during that period.
Now, the retailer is telling Wall Street that it is back on track. "We look forward to the fall season, where improved color and fashion elements are anticipated to be more in line with client expectations," said Chairman J. Patrick Spainhour, in a recent statement discussing prospects for the Ann Taylor division. Company executives declined to be interviewed.
AnnTaylor stock's long-term performance is solid, up 86% in the past five years, compared with 16% for the Dow Jones apparel retail index. But few companies have frustrated forecasters like AnnTaylor. During the past five years, its same-store sales have fluctuated twice as much as its rivals', flipping between positive and negative 17 times, according to Wachovia Capital Markets. Most recently, the retailer disclosed that same-store sales for the five-week period ended July 5 fell 0.2% for the entire company; Wall Street had anticipated same-store sales would grow 2.6%, says Thomson First Call.
Although AnnTaylor's shares are still moderately priced, compared with its rivals, uncertainty over the company's ability to consistently attract customers diminishes its allure. AnnTaylor shares are trading at about 16.3 times their 2003 estimated earnings, compared with its peers' average price-earnings multiple of roughly 20.2, according to Joseph Teklits, a Baltimore-based analyst at Wachovia, who rates the stock a "hold." (Wachovia has no investment-banking relationship with AnnTaylor.)
Among rivals, shares of Talbots trade at 16.5 times their 2003 estimated earnings, while Gap is selling at 19.2 times 2003 estimated earnings. Mr. Teklits says that if AnnTaylor's fall line fails to excite customers, the shares could fall to the low 20s. The retailer is best known for offering up sophisticated clothes to professional women.
Investors are counting on designer Mark Eisen, who previously headed his own firm and joined AnnTaylor last year, to connect with shoppers. This will be Mr. Eisen's first fall collection for the retailer.
"We think they've got the right people in place to fix the core business," says Faraz Farzam, a research analyst at Broadview Advisors, which manages a fund that bought the stock in December 2002 at prices ranging from $19 to $20.
Others are more skeptical. "Everyone is saying something is not clicking with the customer, and everyone is expecting Mark Eisen to fix it," says Adrienne Tennant, an analyst at Los Angeles-based Wedbush Morgan Securities, which has no investment-banking relationship with AnnTaylor. Ms. Tennant currently rates the stock a "hold."
In an effort to attract younger customers and create greater stability, AnnTaylor in recent years has shifted resources to its price-oriented Ann Taylor Loft stores, where blouses typically sell for $20 less than at its sister namesake division. Although the first Loft stores outside factory outlets opened in 1998, the company is now backing them more aggressively, rolling out Loft stores at four times the rate of the traditional stores. Today, it operates 226 such stores, and will open as many as 45 in the fiscal year ending Feb. 1, 2004.
Some observers think it's a smart strategy. "The larger Loft gets, the less dependent the company is on small misses at Ann Taylor stores," says Jennifer Black, a retail analyst at Wells Fargo Securities in Portland, Ore. She rates the stock a "buy," in anticipation of a strong fall collection.
"Loft is the long-term growth engine [for the company] without a doubt," says Francisco Alonso, analyst for Baltimore-based money manager T. Rowe Price, which owns about 6% of AnnTaylor. He says he is bullish on the stock, but declined to disclose T. Rowe Price's recent market activity in the company.
The problem is Loft isn't doing much to lift the bottom line yet. Same-store sale fell 1% for that unit during the 2002 fiscal year and 2.8% during the first quarter of 2003. As a result, the concept's ability to consistently attract a solid customer base remains an question.
不够"迷人"的AnnTaylor
AnnTaylor Stores的新时装设计团队周四将在纽约举行秋季时装发布会，希望藉此讨得华尔街人士的欢心。就像要去光顾夜总会的年轻人一样，投资者们兴奋得晕头转向，将该股价格推高至28.87美元，较3月份的52周低点上涨了69%。
但"家长"的警告是：AnnTaylor股价的波动比更衣室里拉链的开合还快，因此除非你对流行趋势的判断能力比安娜．温特(Anna Wintour)还要强，否则就不要来趟混水。
在2000年，有些投资者曾相信，AnnTaylor当年的秋季时装会非常吸引人，于是将该股股价从分股后的18美元推高至夏末时的28美元。可随后，面对那些以橙色和灰绿色为主基调、剪裁过于紧身穿起来十分不舒服的服装，购物者不禁望而却步。到2000年底，该股就跌到了14-17美元。2002年5月，该公司实行了2股拆成3股的分股计划。
AnnTaylor在2001年的股价也一路走低。该公司在全美经营著603家商店。分析师说，在911事件后的几周，消费者对新奇的晚会服装都毫无兴趣，AnnTaylor的假日礼服也因此滞销。AnnTaylor说，在那段时间，购物的人比以往少多了。
如今，这家零售商告诉华尔街：它要重振旗鼓。公司董事长J. 帕特里克．斯佩恩豪尔(J. Patrick Spainhour)在最近一份探讨Ann Taylor前景的声明中说，"我们对秋季的新产品非常有信心，最新的色彩和时尚元素一定能让我们的客户满意"。公司管理人士谢绝采访。
AnnTaylor股价的长期表现较为强劲，在过去5年中累计上涨了86%，而同期道琼斯服装零售分类指数(Dow Jones apparel retail index)仅上涨了16%。但AnnTaylor也是最令华尔街失望的公司。Wachovia Capital Markets说，在过去5年中，该公司同店销售额波动的幅度是其竞争对手的两倍，在正增长与负增长之间波动了17个来回。就在最近，该公司公布截至7月5日的5周同店销售额下降0.2%；但Thomson First Call表示，华尔街分析师的预期是增长2.6%。
虽然与竞争对手相比，AnnTaylor的股价并不算太高，但它持久抓住客户的能力却令人怀疑，这就降低了它的吸引力。Wachovia驻巴尔的摩的分析师约瑟夫．特克里茨(Joseph Teklits)说，以2003年的每股收益预期计算，该股目前的本益比大约为16.3倍，低于20.2倍的行业平均水平。特克里茨对该股的评级是持有。Wachovia与AnnTaylor没有投资银行业务往来。
在AnnTaylor的竞争对手中，Talbots以2003年每股收益预期计算的本益比是16.5倍；Gap为19.2倍。特克里茨说，倘若AnnTaylor的秋季时装不能取悦消费者，那该股可能会跌到20美元出头的样子。AnnTaylor以向职业女性提供精致服饰而著称。 投资者指望设计师马克．埃森(Mark Eisen)与消费者保持沟通。马克．埃森以前有自己的时装公司，于去年加盟AnnTaylor。这是他加入该公司后举行的第一次秋季时装发布会。
Broadview Advisors研究分析师法拉．法尔赞(Faraz Farzam)说："我们认为AnnTaylor的确为发展它的核心业务找到了合适的人选"。法拉．法尔赞管理的基金2002年12月以19-20美元的价格买入了AnnTaylor的股票。
但更多的人还是对此持怀疑态度。总部设在洛杉矶的Wedbush Morgan Securities的分析师阿德里安娜．坦南特(Adrienne Tennant)说："人人都说公司的产品有些不合消费者的品味，都在指望马克．埃森能解决问题。"Wedbush Morgan Securities与该公司没有投资银行业务关系。坦南特对该股的评级是"持有"。
为了吸引更年轻的客户，增加业绩的稳定性，AnnTaylor最近几年已将更多资源配置转向更注重价格优势的Ann Taylor Loft商店。这些商店中宽松上衣的售价一般都比精品店便宜20美元。尽管首家厂家直销店以外的低端服装店Loft于1998年才开始营业，但公司目前对它的发展给予了更大的支持，Loft新店开张的速度要比其他商店快4倍。今天，公司运营的Loft商店已有226家，在本财政年度于2004年2月1日结束前，公司会再开45家这样的商店。
有些观察人士认为这是个不错的策略。富国证券(Wells Fargo Securities)零售行业分析师珍尼弗．布莱克(Jennifer Black)说，Loft业务越壮大，Ann Taylor对精品店的依赖性就越低。她对该股的评级是"买进"，她对该公司的秋季时装发布会期望值很高。
设在巴尔的摩的基金T. Rowe Price的分析师弗朗西斯科．阿朗索(Francisco Alonso)说，"毫无疑问Loft是该公司的长期增长点。"T. Rowe Price持有AnnTaylor大约6% 的股权。阿朗索说，他对AnnTaylor股票充满信心，但他拒绝透露该基金最近对AnnTaylor股票进行市场操作的情况。
现在的问题是Loft对提高公司利润的贡献还不够大。Loft商店2002财政年度同店销售额下降了1%；本财政年度第一季度下降了2.8%。因此，通过Loft商店能否持久留住稳定的客户，这仍有待观察。
