China's Plan to Limit Imports Could Dim Auto-Sector Boom
It looks like a picture of paradise for car makers in the world's fastest growing car market. Production, sales and profits are up and the forecast is for continued strong growth. In the year to the end of June, passenger-car sales rose 82% and factories are working double and triple time to keep up with runaway consumer demand. Car output doubled to 903,400 in the first half of the year, putting the market on track to hit two million for the year. And this boom followed a 56% increase in sales in 2002.
So foreign giants are rapidly building capacity. Volkswagen AG, the biggest foreign car maker in China, on July 15 pledged $6.8 billion (�6 billion) over the next five years to expand production. Also in July, General Motors Corp. and its joint-venture partner Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corp. said they will invest two billion yuan ($244.8 million, �213.2 million) in their flagship $1.5 billion Shanghai plant to increase capacity. Latecomer Toyota Motor Corp., which produced its first China-made cars last October, is negotiating for production joint ventures with First Auto Works in Changchun and the Guangzhou Automobile Group in Guangdong, according to state media.
But as sales explode, new draft regulations could blacken this rosy picture -- and add to an older problem. In breach of a commitment made when China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, foreign companies are still barred from financing car purchases. The financing arms of VW, GM and Ford Motor Co. are increasingly anxious as Chinese banks enjoy their head start in this lucrative sector. "As time passes, expectations for China's compliance record increase and on some issues, patience begins to run thin," says Stephen Collins, president of the Washington-based Automotive Trade Policy Council, which represents GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler AG.
More difficulties may well be ahead for foreign makers. Under a new draft car policy quietly floated for discussion three months ago, four sea ports (Dalian, Tianjin, Shanghai and Huangpu) and two sites on land (Manzhouli in northern Heilongjiang province and Shenzhen, adjacent to Hong Kong) are listed as the only places that would be approved for car imports. "Other harbors and ports shall not set up portals for importing complete vehicles," the policy paper says. Imports, though a small fraction of the total number of cars sold in China, are a key value-added area for foreign companies. They don't have to share the profit from imports with their Chinese joint-venture partner.
Foreign car executives who have seen the paper complain that it adds to their concern about Beijing's long-term intentions toward foreign car makers. The paper calls for more market opening, but proposes further restrictions on foreign companies. Replacing a national policy that dates to 1994, the paper is clearly aimed at bolstering China-based manufacturing. Among its objectives, it says that it seeks to ensure that China becomes "one of the major automobile manufacturing countries in the world by 2010," with Chinese companies providing half the designs for domestic car sales by that year and exports of components and parts representing 40% of total sales.
The prospect of such new rules worries foreign companies, which must have local partners and are restricted to holding no more than 50% of any joint venture producing for the Chinese market. This allows large state-owned companies to build multiple partnerships with foreign players. According to the official Xinhua news agency, over 600 car-sector joint ventures have been established since 1984, and foreign companies have invested $22 billion in the country's car industry. Tying foreign companies to joint ventures dilutes their influence in the car sector while helping bring state-owned giants up to international standards. At the same time, wholly owned domestic companies are gaining ground. They currently hold 10% of the passenger-car market, compared with almost nothing three years ago.
Multinational car makers are particularly concerned by a clause in the proposed rules requiring separate sales outlets for imported and Chinese-made cars. Foreign companies have hoped the distribution networks they are building for China-made cars also would be the backbone for distributing imports. "In terms of economic efficiency, a dual distribution network is a throwback," says Franz Jessen, a top official at the European Commission in Beijing.
Foreign makers also express concerns that the proposals were only passed on to them by their joint-venture partners. Executives say they sense an old-fashioned Communist Party bureaucracy at work trying to put a drag on the market opening that helped boost car sales in the past two years. Some fear that the policy proposals are an attempt to "stick to the letter, but not the spirit of WTO," a foreign car executive complains. Top car makers, including GM and VW, have suggested amendments, and a more formal version of the policy is expected to be published on the orders of the State Council, according to an official at the National Development Reform Commission, which drew up the draft.
"Proposed regulations about such a capital-intensive industry require a much higher level of transparency and disclosure than planning authorities have shown to date," says Pat Powers , the Beijing-based director of China operations at the U.S.-China Business Council, which represents U.S. corporations doing business in the country. Most foreign car makers plan to wait and see whether the government listens to their concerns.
中国汽车行业新政策草案令外商不安
作为全球增长最快的汽车市场，中国简直就是汽车制造商的天堂。生产、销售和利润全面增长，而这种强劲势头预计还会继续下去。截至今年6月底，轿车销量增加了82%，各家汽车厂开足马力，实行两班倒或三班倒，以满足近乎失控的消费者需求。上半年轿车产量增长了一倍，达到903,400辆，使得全年产量有望达到200万辆。在之前的2002年，汽车销量已经增长了56%。
外国汽车巨头正迅速扩大在中国的生产能力。在华经营规模最大的外国汽车厂家－－德国大众(Volkswagen)7月15日承诺，在未来5年将投入68亿美元资金扩大产能。当月，美国通用汽车(General Motors)及其合作伙伴上海汽车工业(集团)公司(Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corp.)也宣布，将向双方在上海15亿美元的核心工厂再投入人民币20亿元(合2.4亿美元)。日本丰田汽车(Toyota)也不甘落后，据中国官方媒体称，该公司正在和长春的一汽集团(First Auto Works)及广东的广州汽车工业集团(Guangzhou Automobile Group)展开谈判，有意成立合资汽车生产企业。丰田汽车在华生产的首批汽车去年10月份才刚刚下线。
但在销售呈现爆炸式增长的同时，新的行业管理规定草案可能会令大好的前景失色，并使旧的问题越发突出。中国仍然禁止外国公司提供汽车融资业务，这违背了中国2001年加入世界贸易组织时作出的承诺。虽然总的说来，中国在遵循汽车行业相关承诺方面纪录良好，但由于中国的银行已率先享受汽车融资业务带来的好处，大众、通用和福特汽车(Ford Motor)等公司的汽车融资业务部门变得越发担心。汽车贸易政策委员会(Automotive Trade Policy Council)总裁史蒂芬?科林斯(Stephen Collins)称，随著时间的推移，要求中国遵守承诺的期望渐增，并且在某些问题上，人们的耐心会越来越少。这个委员会设在华盛顿，是通用汽车、福特汽车和戴姆勒克莱斯勒(DaimlerChrysler)利益的代言人。
外国汽车制造商的面前或许还摆著更多的难题。在中国汽车行业一个新的政策文件中，还对处理进口外产汽车的港口数量加以限制。该草案使外国公司担心：中国可能考虑运用非关税壁垒来扶植国内的汽车工业。外国汽车厂商的管理人士称，限制处理进口车的港口数量可能产生人为的瓶颈，实际上造成进口车数量减少，但却可将此归咎于港口落后的后勤设施。
诚然，进口车只是中国所售汽车中很小的一部分。但如同汽车融资业务一样，对外国公司而言这也是一个关键的增值业务领域。当这些公司每出售一辆进口车，他们不存在和中方合作伙伴进行利润分成的问题。中国国内市场日趋激烈的竞争，外加廉价进口车的威胁，使国产汽车的利润率急剧下降，在这种情况下，出售进口车的好处就越发明显。
这项新的汽车行业政策草案于3个月前提交讨论。根据该草案，进口汽车只能通过大连、天津、上海和黄埔等4个海港以及黑龙江省满洲里和与香港毗连的深圳这两座大陆城市进入中国。其他港口不许开设进口整车的入口。
了解草案内容的外国汽车业管理人士抱怨说，该草案使他们对中国政府对待外国汽车制造商的长期意图产生更大的顾虑。该草案呼吁加大市场开放力度，但同时又为外国厂商设置了更多障碍。这份草案将取代1994年版的全国汽车行业政策，很显然，它的目的是为了推进本地汽车工业的发展。
该草案宣称，制定新政策的目的之一是确保中国"在2010年前成为世界主要的汽车生产国"，届时中国国内销售的汽车中将有一半的设计来自国内厂家。目前，在中国街道上奔驰的汽车中，绝大多数的部件及设计来自外国汽车制造商。这份政策草案还瞄准了海外市场，称"到2010年，出口汽车零部件应占整体销售的40%"。
这样的政策前景令外国厂商深感不安。目前，外国汽车制造商要在华开展业务，必须通过与当地汽车厂商合作的方式进行，且在任何以中国大陆为目标市场的合资公司中持股比例不得超过50%。这一限制规定使大型国有公司能够同外国汽车制造商建立多重伙伴关系。
据中国官方媒体新华社7月18日报导，自1984年以来，在华的汽车行业中外合资公司已经超过600家，而外资在中国汽车行业的投资额也已达到220亿美元。通过将外国公司局限于合资的形式，削弱了其对中国汽车行业的影响力，而外资方的经验和技术又扶植了国有的汽车巨头，使其不断向国际标准靠拢。与此同时，百分之百的国内汽车制造商也在不断扩大市场占有率，目前这些厂商在轿车市场的占有率已经达到10%，而三年前，该比率几乎接近于零。
跨国汽车制造商担心，这些新的政策将破坏它们的发展计划。其中要求明确划分进口和国产汽车销售网点的规定让它们尤其担心，因为这将进一步提高从国外引进新品牌的成本，并实际上对进口汽车加以限制。外国厂商在为在华生产的汽车建立分销网络时，曾希望利用这一网络分销进口汽车。欧盟驻北京的高级官员Franz Jessen说，"从经济效益的角度来说，双重分销网络是一个大倒退。"
外国汽车制造商担心的另一个问题是，他们只能通过合资伙伴获得这些相关的政策提案。管理人士称，他们在工作中感到一种老式的共产党官僚机制正试图延缓市场开放的步伐。而在过去两年，正是由于这种开放的市场机制，中国汽车销售才得以直线上升。一名外国汽车制造商的管理人士评价说，一些人士担心，类似的政策提案不过是从"文字上而不是精神上遵循了世贸组织协定"。根据制定该草案的国家发展和改革委员会的官员称，通用汽车和大众等一流汽车制造商暗示，修正草案及更正式的政策文本预计将在国务院的指示下公诸于世。
美中商会(U.S.-China Business Council)中国业务驻京代表Pat Powers说，"在这样一个资金密集的行业，对相关政策提案的透明度和披露及时性的要求非常高，而迄今为止当局在这方面的努力还远远不够。"大多数外国汽车制造商准备观察中国政府的态度，看其是否会倾听他们的声音。一名欧洲汽车业管理人士说，"我的直觉是，这份草案恐怕不会被通过。人们不应当拨回时钟，又倒退回过去。"
但至少一些令外国公司头痛的问题将有一个明确的解决时间表。欧洲和美国汽车制造商抱怨称，要获得关税高达43%的汽车的进口执照非常困难，且缺乏透明度，相关部门明显偏向日本汽车制造商。去年，进口汽车配额的总量为12万辆。但根据北京在加入世贸组织时做出的承诺，到2006年，中国将取消进口汽车配额，外国汽车公司将可以无限量地进口汽车，且关税也将下调至25%。当然，前提是那些指定的港口不会出现货物积压。
