T.G.I.F., Stocks' Favorite Day to Rally
SKEPTICISM IS OFTEN HEALTHY, and occasionally unprofitable. A determined confederation of market skeptics has shadowed stocks all through their four-month rally, heckling their performance with plausible arguments about untenable valuations, an underachieving economy and complacent investor attitudes.
It has been, for them, a recipe for capital depletion. The most aggressive market sectors, the ones most susceptible to such critiques, have appreciated the most. And even through the latest range-trapped phase of the rally, each time the doubters saw an opportunity to knock the indexes back on their heels, stocks have held firm and the bulls have stayed standing.
The bears keep pointing to a purportedly scary ebullience in sentiment indicated in some investor surveys. Yet Nasdaq short interest rose to another record in July, representing the reservoir of skepticism that keeps building.
The action on a languid, news-deprived summer Friday can be a decent gauge of investors' default mode, and this past Friday -- like the one before it -- that mode proved to be one of buying on weakness. After another dull week in which a cavalcade of generally positive earnings reports hardly budged the indexes, the market went airborne at midday Friday.
News that the U.S. military had nabbed part of Saddam Hussein's security detail provided the spark for what traders said was an afternoon of short-covering, momentum-buying and performance-chasing that pulled the market into the black for the week.
The Dow Jones Industrials rose 96 points, or 1%, to 9288, reaching a five-week high above the 9264 level that had capped the index in recent weeks. The Standard & Poor's 500 added five points, or half a percent, to 998, while the Nasdaq climbed 22 points, or 1.3%, to 1730.
The move did nothing to puncture the now-seven-week range in the S&P 500, which has traded between 962 and 1015. Friday's rally came on fairly light volume and was concentrated in the largest, most liquid stocks -- the kind that move when index futures are leading the move.
Durable-goods orders and home sales for June arrived in good form early in the day. These got the nod as catalysts for the move, and cyclical names led the upside for a second straight week. But stocks were soft for hours after the data were released. Earnings this quarter are running about 6% ahead of estimates, with a strong 70% of companies exceeding forecasts. Yet the week's strongest performance came on the one day that featured virtually no major profit reports.
This points up a frustrating possibility for the skepticism crowd -- that the reasoned case about the market having discounted too rosy an economic scenario doesn't much matter if that's not the entire reason for the market's strength.
This crowd growls that tech stocks have gotten alarmingly expensive, but techs didn't begin to rally because they were cheap. They'll tell you that second-half economic numbers might fall short of hopes. But what if the economic forecasts are merely coincident to the rally, rather than it's central cause?
In other words, if liquidity, free money and a washed-out market predicated the move, then until the momentum and the money are spent, those downbeat reminders could remain non sequitur. If stocks are to react in any identifiable way to economic numbers, it should happen next week. Manufacturing and employment numbers for July will give an early read on the first month of the second half, when tax cuts joined all the other stimulative efforts.
The latest concern cited by the bears, with some reason, has been the backup in Treasury-bond yields, to 4.19% on the 10-year note. A flawed, though pervasive, stock-versus-bond valuation case has been working steeply in favor of stocks for months, and brokers and strategists have deployed plenty of their clients' capital in its service. As the nearby chart illustrates, that case has weakened, though not much.
And as long as rates stay near low historical levels, and the corporate-bond market keeps companies flush, this will be another of those skeptical arguments that won't matter at all, until it matters a lot.
IN MID-1994, NOT LONG after the bond market began falling apart, Lehman Brothers made a commitment to build a franchise in asset management for high-net-worth investors, hiring a prominent executive to lead the effort. The business never reached critical mass.
Facing another potential downturn in bonds, Lehman -- then and now known as a fixed-income shop -- last week agreed to buy an asset manager for wealthy investors, Neuberger Berman, as rumored, for $2.6 billion.
Calling this a repeat of history would be far too pat, but there are echoes. In both instances, Lehman was facing a bond-trading and underwriting environment that was more likely to get worse than better. And the firm was interested in finding ballast in a more stable, high-margin revenue source.
The difference is that Lehman today is a much-improved company, with stronger market share in most every product group and admirable expense controls. The firm's stock, which always fetched a discount to its larger peers but now trades close to parity, testifies to the progress.
Another difference is that, instead of trying to build a business from a small base, Lehman is now purchasing an attractive and highly profitable asset manager of $65 billion, using, in part, Lehman's valuable stock as currency.
Still, there's no guarantee that investors will give Lehman full credit for diversifying its business in this way, and the stout price it proposes to pay for Neuberger means the acquisition won't likely augment the bottom line until at least fiscal 2005.
While the deal will raise Lehman's asset-management revenue to around 10% of its total, UBS Warburg analyst Glenn Schorr says that's not likely to be enough for investors to boost the company's valuation multiple much. It's almost certain that investors won't value Neuberger at the 21 times earnings Lehman is paying. Even top-notch independent asset managers trade for less than that.
Lehman agreed to pay $9.49 in cash plus almost one-half a Lehman share, or just under $42 per Neuberger share. That price represents 4.1% of assets under management and 13 times Neuberger's cash flow in the past 12 months -- the upper end of the range for asset-manager deals, says J.P. Morgan. Though Lehman insists it could eventually realize $100 million a year in revenue enhancements and cost savings, some analysts think that's a bit aggressive.
Though there are risks that Neuberger managers and clients could flee, Lehman negotiated tight golden-handcuff deals and noncompete agreements for senior executives, while setting aside another $120 million to retain talent.
As it stands, based on earnings and book-value measures, Lehman shares trade just below those of larger, more diversified competitors such as Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch, but well ahead of the smaller and similarly bond-heavy Bear Stearns. This seems about right. While brokerage earnings are notoriously tough to predict, Lehman and Bear are projected to have profit declines next year, while the others are seen increasing earnings.
Even though Lehman's equities and merger advisory franchises are much im- proved, the stock tends to trade along with the fortunes of the bond market, as Smith Barney analyst Ruchi Madan notes.
That would hurt the shares in a runaway stock bull market. But as long as corporate bond demand remains solid and the yield curve stays steep, Lehman can continue plying its advantage long after the market thinks the game is up.
CREDIT THE FINANCIAL BACKERS of Seagate Technology with sharp timing and an opportunistic streak. The four buyout firms that control Seagate -- Silver Lake Partners, Texas Pacific Group, J.P. Morgan Partners and August Capital -- acquired the company with almost no cash in 2000, thanks to a New Economy-blinded market that felt the disk-drive business was hopelessly passe.
In December, after a big tech-stock rally, the partners partially cashed out by taking Seagate public. Sure, they had to accept $12 for each of the 75 million shares they sold, less than they'd hoped. But the deal got done and the checks cleared before techs sold off hard in January, bringing Seagate to a low near 8 two months later.
Having ridden this year's tech renaissance that sent Seagate to a high above 22 in mid-July, the buyout firms elected to sell another chunk of their holdings and on Thursday priced a secondary offering of 60 million shares. Lead banker Morgan Stanley priced the shares at $18.75, a slight discount to the $18.93 closing price that day. But demand was stiff enough for the stock to climb briefly above $19 Friday.
More than just the technology sector's strength, Seagate has benefited from the newly rational economics of the consolidated disk-drive industry. The company seems to have enough fundamental momentum that the shares continue to look reasonably priced.
Seagate's smaller competitors, Maxtor and Western Digital, have also seen their stocks rise, though Western Digital stumbled last week. The smallest of the three, Western reported a positive earnings surprise, but said it expects margin pressure in the current quarter and announced it is buying the assets of bankrupt component- maker Read-Rite. Analysts and investors turned hostile, asserting that the purchase was expensive and complicated. The stock dropped $1.76 to $9.94.
Yet Seagate wasn't deemed guilty by association. Indeed, analyst Rob Cihra at Fulcrum Global Partners says Western's challenge in integrating Read-Rite makes the case for Seagate (and Maxtor) that much stronger, because in an oligopolistic industry one company's loss necessarily is the others' gain.
Seagate's earnings hit $1.36 a share, on a 6% revenue increase, in the fiscal year ended June 30. For the current year, earnings forecasts have been trending up and now sit at $1.51 a share, giving the stock a price/earnings multiple around 12.5.
On a price-to-sales basis, Seagate carries a higher valuation than its peers, but its better profitability and leadership position seem to justify that. Seagate's margins have climbed a bit and the company expects that to continue. And its recent entry into the notebook-computer sector, the industry's brightest area, is considered a positive move.
The industry remains quite cyclical, and is geared to any changes -- good or ill -- in the PC business. But given the heart-over-mind bets investors have been making in the airier realms of technology, Seagate's modest valuation (it even pays a slim dividend) and leadership position make it appear a pretty good risk/reward bargain.
THREE YEARS AGO, CORPORATE PEER pressure caused executives to allow casual office attire, and throw money at Internet strategies. Today, peer pressure is inducing companies to slide more cash into shareholders' pockets.
Several weeks after Mandalay Resort Group became the first casino operator to begin paying a dividend, its neighbor on the Strip, Harrah's Entertainment, followed with a generous initial dividend of its own last week. The $1.20 annual payout computes to nearly a 3% yield.
As with Mandalay, Harrah's shares jumped on the news, adding 4.8% Friday after the announcement, and rising $3.55 to $43.43 on the week
Of course, not every company joins the crowd. Park Place Entertainment reported earnings last week and took the unusual step of stating its intention to keep its zero-dividend policy. The company said it will continue to funnel free cash flow into its properties and toward debt reduction.
Some observers also applauded Viacom's first-ever dividend, a modest version at six cents per quarter. Morgan Stanley called this a good sign, because the entertainment industry now holds few attractive opportunities to reinvest free cash flow. TV stations and cable networks are expensive, for example, and Viacom's move may indicate that it won't be a profligate acquirer, says the firm. That could send media properties to more sensible price levels. Viacom's Class B shares rose $1.27 to $45.24.
The positive market reaction to new dividends puts the lie to the idea that dividends send a negative message that a company is beyond its best growth years. But can a dividend cut do the opposite, by indicating a renewed emphasis on growing a business?
There is some speculation on Wall Street that Eastman Kodak might look to cut its meaty $1.80-a-share dividend, which gives the stock one of the highest yields of any operating company, at close to 7%.
The market is implying either that it doesn't believe the dividend will stay this high, or that the income is not worth the risk of owning a piece of a company whose core film business is in secular decline. The company continues to say it considers the dividend a key priority unless better cash uses arise.
Kodak shares popped higher last week on better-than-expected second-quarter earnings, though several fleeting factors helped the performance.
Away from the bottom-line performance, investors were possibly happy to see Kodak's digital-camera business break even ahead of schedule. Yet another round of job cuts was also announced.
The Street should welcome the tough, reasoned talk of CEO Daniel Carp about the accelerating threat to film sales of digital photography. He raised his estimate of film sales lost to digital and is signaling that the company must stop acting as a mere cash cow in partial denial of the need to refocus the business. Digital photofinishing is one crucial emerging business.
Kodak is expected to articulate its financial strategies at a Sept. 25 analyst meeting. UBS Warburg's Ben Reitzes told clients last week that the dividend "could be cut by about 50% in order to give the company greater cash- flow flexibility, and position it to make more acquisitions...to help its multiple over the long-term."
Imagine that. A dividend cut possibly boosting a stock's valuation.
牛市依然继续
怀疑论常常有益无害，但有时也会无利可图。股市在四个月的反弹中一直有怀疑论者伴随左右，他们用看似有理的论点质疑股市的表现，认为股价偏高、经济不够理想、投资者过于乐观。
在他们眼中，这只是在消耗资本而已。市场表现最活跃的类股，最容易受这些批评意见左右的个股，涨幅却最大。尽管股市的反弹近期陷入窄幅波动之中，使怀疑论者看到了指数回落至底部的希望，但股市依然坚挺，牛市依然在继续。
看跌股市的人引述的理由是几项投资者调查中所流露出的担忧情绪。而那斯达克指数卖空量7月份再创历史新高，则表明市场上的怀疑情绪在增长。 在一个平淡无奇的夏日周五，投资者的基本交易心态最能表露无遗。与此前一周一样，投资者上周五表露出的基本心态是逢低买进。在普遍较好的收益报告又未能使股指在周内走高后，股市在上周五午盘开始上扬。
美军捕获部分萨达姆(Saddam Hussein)卫队成员的消息成为股市走高的导火索，推动了交易员所说的空头回补、跟风买盘及追逐业绩买盘，最终使全周股指较上周走高。
道琼斯指数上涨96点，至9288点，涨幅1%，突破了近几周来9264点的阻力位。标准普尔500指数上涨5点至998点，涨幅0.5%；那斯达克综合指数上涨22点至1730点，涨幅1.3%。
标准普尔指数并未突破7周来的交易区间，仍在962点至1015点之间波动。上周五的的股市虽然上涨，但成交量却有限，且集中在流动性较好的大型股上，这属于追随股指期货走势的上涨。
上周五早间公布的6月份耐用品订单和房屋销售数据相对较好，这成为推动大盘上扬的动力，周期类股领涨，使股指连续第二周收盘走高。
但在数据发布后的数小时中，股市一度走软。美国公司本季度公布的收益平均较预期高6%，70%以上公司的业绩超出了预期。然而，在本周走势最为强劲的一天，实际上却没有大公司公布收益报告。
这可能令怀疑论者感到沮丧，因为这表明，在一个对如此好的经济数据都无动于衷的市场上，如果一个可以推动股市走强的理由不是百分之百的准确，它就可能一钱不值。
怀疑论者断言科技股股价已经过高，但科技股过去并未因股价低而出现反弹。他们称，下半年的经济数据可能低于预期，但如果经济数据不再是推动股市反弹的主要因素呢？他们的这一预测还有意义吗？
换言之，如果悲观论者用流动资金、闲散资金及疲弱的市场等指标来预测股市走势的话，他们仍然无法令人信服。股市是否会对经济数据作出明确的反应，下周便可见分晓。
7月份制造业及就业数据将使人们初步了解下半年第一个月的情况，从7月份开始，减税也将作为刺激措施之一发挥作用。
看跌股市的人现在又开始担心国债收益率的下降，10年期美国国债收益率已达到4.19%。存在缺陷，但却非常流行的股市-债市估价理论几个月来一直极其倾向于股市，经纪商和策略师也将大量的客户资金转入了股市。近期的技术图形表明，这种理论的可靠性在降低，但还不是很大。
只要利率仍维持在历史低点附近，企业继续通过债券市场大量发债，这就将成为怀疑论者的另一个论据。
在Mandalay Resort Group几周前成为首只派发股息的博彩运营商之后，经营脱衣舞的Harrah's Entertainment上周也慷慨解囊，进行了首次派息。全年每股派发1.20美元的股息相当于3%的收益率。
同Mandalay一样，Harrah's也因宣布派息的消息而走高，上周五上涨4.8%，全周上涨3.55美元，收于43.43美元。
道琼斯指数是连续第二个周五借助尾盘时的上扬而全周走高。由于美国铝业(Alcoa Inc., AA)及杜邦公司(DuPont, DD)等周期类股表现强劲，道琼斯指数上涨1%，收于9284点。
部分观察人士也对维亚康姆(Viacom)首次派息表示欢迎， 该公司每季度将派发每股6美分的股息。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)认为这是一个良好的迹象，主要原因是娱乐业现在很难找到具有吸引力的投资机会。
对新派息股票的积极反应证明，有关派息是消极做法的论点是站不住脚的。但是否能反过来说，降低派息就证明公司重新将注意力放到了业务增长上了呢？
华尔街有传言称，伊士曼-柯达公司(Eastman Kodak Co., EK)可能会下调每股1.80美元的丰厚派息。柯达的股息收益率接近7%，是收益率最高的公司之一。
看来市场要么认为柯达难以继续派发如此高的股息，要么认为不值得为获得这一派息而冒险持有一家核心的胶卷业务不断下滑公司的股票。柯达仍表示，在没有找到更好的投资途径前，派发股息是最佳选择。
柯达股价上周走高，原因是好于预期的第二财政季度业绩，但其他几个短期因素也推高了股价。
除了利润表现良好之外，投资者可能还对柯达的数码相机业务提前实现盈亏平衡表示满意。该公司还宣布将进行新一轮的裁员。
预计柯达将在9月25日的分析师会议上详细阐述其金融策略。瑞银华宝的本?赖策斯(Ben Reitzes)上周对客户表示，派息额可能会下调50%左右，以使公司获得更高的现金流，并可进行更多的收购。从长远来看，这将大幅增加公司的派息。
就这个角度而言，下调派息可能也会提振股票的价格。
(back)Brushing in the Bush
Possessing a strong physique and sporting wooden pegs through each earlobe, the elderly chief of the Xavante Indian tribe in Brazil strikes a commanding figure -- until he opens his mouth.
Several top teeth are missing. Many others are rotted beyond rescue. The chief, who goes by the single name of Serebura and is somewhere in his 80s -- he doesn't know his exact birth date -- didn't use a toothbrush and toothpaste until he was about 70 years old.
These days, Colgate-Palmolive Co. is trying to spare Serebura's 30-odd grandchildren and great-grandchildren (the polygamous chief can't keep track of his descendents) the same fate. The multinational company, working with Brazilian dentist Rui Arantes, is arming the onetime warrior tribe -- which still uses bows and arrows -- with weapons of modern oral hygiene.
For generations, dental care for the Xavante and other tribes consisted of twigs to scrape between the teeth and straw to wipe the tongue clean. That was all that was needed, given that their diet consisted of what they hunted or collected: tapirs, deer, fish, fruits and edible roots. The fare had a fortifying and cleansing effect on their teeth, dentists say. And though all the hard chewing eroded the Indians' choppers over time, cavities were rare.
Then came the "white man" -- offering gifts of tobacco, refined sugar and processed foods in exchange for mining privileges and other moneymaking activities. The Brazilian government inadvertently contributed to tooth decay by introducing rice -- the sticky starch causes cavities -- to Indians to encourage farming.
"We tried white man's food, and we liked it. Now we have toothaches," declares Chief Serebura, who says his problems stem from his acquired taste for sugar, cookies and coffee.
Between 1961 and 1991, the incidence of tooth decay quadrupled among six- to 12-year-old Xavante and rose more than fivefold among 13- to 19-year-olds. Overall, Brazil boasts developed-world standards of oral hygiene, with toothpaste consumption on a par with the U.S., at about 600 grams per capita annually -- 65% more than France, according to Colgate. But most Indians weren't using toothpaste as recently as five years ago. By the time Dr. Arantes studied the Xavante in 1997 as part of graduate work in public health, "immediate action was necessary to preserve the teeth of future generations," says the 38-year-old dentist.
So Dr. Arantes decided to take the Xavante's plight to a potentially powerful ally: Colgate. The company agreed in 1999 to sponsor a prevention, education and treatment program focused on five-to-14-year-olds.
In Brazil, Latin America's largest country and Colgate's fifth-biggest market, Indians account for just 280,000 in a total population of 175 million and generally don't have individual income. "I wouldn't call this a classic business-building process," says Roger Pratt, president of Colgate in Brazil. "We're not expecting to sell a lot of dental cream to Indians." Instead, Colgate considers the Xavante project, whose budget it won't disclose, as a socially responsible investment.
Next month, the project will extend to five other Xavante villages, with a total population of 10,000, as well to the Xingu National Park, home to about 4,000 Indians. Dr. Arantes will oversee two other dentists, and the goal is to slash tooth decay by 40% in five years.
For the past four years, Dr. Arantes has been visiting Pimentel Barbosa every four months for about 45 days at a time. To reach the village, he makes a backbreaking 24-hour journey from Sao Paulo by plane, bus and jeep. Each time, he lugs 500 Colgate toothpaste tubes and 500 toothbrushes (a pair for each villager), dental instruments, a 12-volt car battery to power a drill and a tent that he sleeps in.
Before starting his work, Dr. Arantes pays his respects to Chief Serebura and attends the Wara, a tribal council that convenes in the center of the horseshoe-shaped village each day for communal decisions. Through a translator, Dr. Arantes communicates his mission to the men assembled. Word quickly spreads that the dentist will be available for consultations.
The Xavante, who are recognizable by their square-cut shoulder-length hair with long bangs, were a nomadic tribe until about 30 years ago. Now settled, their living conditions have hardly changed: Extended families inhabit large palm-thatched huts. There is no running water, electricity or other modern conveniences.
Not a single Xavante woman in Pimentel Barbosa speaks Portuguese, and just a handful of Xavante men speak it. Especially in the early days, Dr. Arantes found little need to talk to his patients, once they opened their mouths. "They came in droves to get teeth pulled," he recalls. (He is now proficient in the Xavante dialect, Je.)
"Our priority is education and prevention," says Dr. Arantes, who teaches Portuguese-speaking tribesmen the ABCs of dental malaises -- plaque, gum disease and cavities -- which they pass on to the community. The dentist and the Indians also develop educational games, based on Xavante culture and customs.
One recent morning, after lunch at the Xavante schoolhouse, a tall Indian named Prepe gathered 15 students. Using a set of dentures and an oversize toothbrush to make his point, the Indian began: "Why are teeth important?" Several frisky children responded in unison that "we need them to chew, talk and have good health." Afterwards, Prepe handed every child a toothbrush with toothpaste, and four by four, they bent over a troughlike basin with four faucets and began brushing vigorously.
Dr. Arantes is confident that most youngsters here now brush their teeth regularly. One sign of improvement is that tribe members aren't just coming to see the dentist about toothaches. The other day, Monica , a Xavante carrying a newborn in a handwoven basket suspended by the handle across her forehead, asked for a checkup. Says Dr. Arantes: "The message about oral hygiene is getting across."
灌木林中的刷牙运动
强壮的体格，显眼的木制耳环，巴西印第安部落Xavante的年老酋长真是威风凛凛－－直到他开始张口说话。
口腔上排的几个牙齿已经没了，而其他许多牙齿也烂得无可救药。这位单名叫Serebura的酋长现在约有八十多岁（他记不得自己的具体生日了），直到七十岁左右才开始使用牙刷和牙膏。
目前，高露洁棕榄(Colgate-Palmolive Co.)正试图避免让相同的命运降临到Serebura的三十多个孙子和曾孙身上。这家跨国公司与巴西牙科医生鲁?埃伦特(Rui Arantes)携手合作，用现代口腔卫生学来武装Xavante这个昔日的武士部落─该部落的成员直到现在还使用弓箭。 世世代代以来，Xavante和其他部落的牙齿保健方式主要是用小树枝擦牙齿，用稻草刷舌头。由于他们的食物来自狩猎和采集品，如貘、鹿、鱼、水果和食用块根，这种清洁方式已经足够了。牙医们解释说，上述食品有清洁和加固牙齿的作用。虽然随著时间的推移，强力咀嚼会侵蚀印第安人的牙齿，但几乎没有蛀牙。
后来，"白人"进入印第安人的世界。他们带来了土豆、精制糖和加工食品，用这些作为礼物来获取采矿权，进行各种牟利活动。巴西政府还向印第安人引进稻谷，鼓励他们从事农耕，无意间起了推波助澜的作用，因为稻米中带有粘性的淀粉能引起蛀牙。
Serebura说："我们尝了白人的食物，并喜欢上了它们。如今，我们的牙开始疼了。"他说自己的牙病源于对糖、甜饼和咖啡的喜爱。
从1961年至1991年，在Xavante部落6到12岁的孩子中，龋齿的发病率翻了四倍，而在13到19岁的孩子中，发病率上升了五倍多。高露洁公司称，总体而言，巴西的口腔卫生程度达到了发达国家的水平，牙膏的消费量与美国持平，人均年消量约为600克─比法国高出65%。但大多数印第安人直到5年前才开始使用牙膏。1997年，作为攻读公众健康领域的研究生，埃伦特研究了Xavante部落的口腔卫生状况。这位现年38岁的医生说："当时必须马上采取行动来保护孩子们的牙齿。"
于是，埃轮特医生决定把Xavante部落的困境告诉潜在的强大盟友高露洁。该公司在1999年同意赞助一项针对5到14岁儿童的、把预防、教育和治疗结合起来的牙病防治活动。
巴西是拉丁美洲的第一大国，也是高露洁的第五大市场，总人口为1.75亿，其中印第安人只有28万，而且基本上没有个人收入。高露洁驻巴西的总裁罗杰?普莱特(Roger Pratt)说："这不是一般的商业活动，我们并不指望向印第安人出售大量的牙膏。"相反，该公司把这项活动作为一项社会公益活动，但它没有透露预算金额。
下个月，这项活动将扩展至Xavante的另外5个总人口为1万的村落，以及Xingu国家公园，那里居住著大约4,000名印第安人。埃伦特手下还有两名医生，他们的目标是在五年把龋齿的发病率降低40%。
在过去四年里，埃伦特医生每4个月就要在Pimentel Barbosa村呆上45天左右。为了到达这个村庄，他要艰苦跋涉24个小时，先从圣保罗(San Paulo)乘飞机，再转乘汽车和吉普车。他每次都要带500支高露洁牙膏和500支高露洁牙刷（每个村民将获得一支牙膏和牙刷），医疗设备、一个给牙钻供电的12伏车用蓄电池以及一个供他睡觉用的帐篷。
在开始工作之前，埃伦特要问候酋长Serebura，每天都参加Wara，即部落会议。这种会议在马蹄铁形的村庄的中心召开，商讨公共事务，并做决定。通过翻译，埃伦特把他的使命传达给在场的人。大家很快都知道可以向这位牙医请教。
三十年前，Xavante还是个游牧部落，部落成员都留著长及肩膀的头发，前面还有长长的刘海。目前虽已定居，但他们的生活水平几乎没有改变：成员众多的大家庭住在棕榈覆盖的茅屋里。村里没有自来水、没有通电，也没有其他现代生活设施。
在Pimentel Barbosa村里，没有一个Xavante妇女会说葡萄牙语，仅有少数几个男子会讲。起初，埃伦特发现几乎不必与病人交谈，只要他们张口，他就知道怎么回事。埃伦特会议说："他们成群结队地来拔牙。"（他现在已精通Xavante的方言Je了。）
埃伦特说："我们的主要任务是教育和预防牙病。"他向那些懂葡萄牙语的男子们传授关于牙病的基础知识，如牙斑、齿龈疾病以及蛀牙等，然后再由这些人传授给全村人。这位牙医还和懂葡萄牙语的印第安人根据Xavante的文化和风俗，开发具有教育意义的游戏。
最近的某天上午，在Xavante的校舍里吃完午饭后，一个个子高高的名叫Prepe的印第安人召集了15名学生。他用了一副假牙和特大型牙刷进行教学。Prepe首先问道："牙齿为什么很重要？"几个活泼的孩子齐声答道："我们需要牙齿来咀嚼，说话，保持身体健康。"随后，Prepe给每个孩子发了一支牙刷和牙膏，让孩子们以四个为单位，在带有四个龙头的槽形水盆前用力地刷牙。
埃伦特相信，大多数年轻人现在经常刷牙。一个可喜的迹象是，该部落的成员们如今找他不仅仅是为了看牙病。有一天，一个名叫Monica的Xavante妇女带著个放在手工编织篮里的新生儿来找他，要求进行检查。埃伦特说："口腔卫生的知识正在普及。"
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I get quite a few questions from readers about computer issues and it made me realize that either I don't know anything [quite possible] or the answers are not as straightforward as they seem. So rather than try to answer the questions myself I have farmed them out to a panel of tech experts, who, obligingly, have provided answers confirming both counts: The answers are not straightforward, and yes, I don't know anything. Here's a selection of questions, collated from your e-mails, and answers. Fuller answers can be found on my blog [
http://loosewire.blogspot.com].
HOW CAN SOMEONE SEND SPAM WITH MY E-MAIL ADDRESS AND NAME IN THE "FROM" FIELD?
This is a common complaint from readers, who are alarmed to discover that their e-mail address is being used to send spam. Either they find out from friends that they seem to be sending out rubbish, or they receive bounced e-mails saying "no such user exists." To do this, the experts say, is relatively easy. As Wu-chang Feng, a computer-science professor at the Oregon Health and Science University, puts it, the protocol designed by academics in the early days of the Internet to enable any e-mail to get from A to B, called SMTP, does not try to authenticate the sender. "Academics are a trusting bunch of folks," he says. The bottom line: While there's not much you can do about it, it has become so common you are unlikely to face a lynching from your friends.
IF I VISIT A WEB SITE CAN THE PERSON WHO OWNS IT SEE IT WAS ME?
All the experts seem to agree that the least a Web site can learn from you is your IP, or Internet Protocol, address, which would tell them what country you are in and which Internet Service Provider or company you are accessing the Internet from. Then things get a little murkier: Web sites can place blobs of text called cookies on your computer which will give them a better idea of who you are and what you do. For example, if you return to that Web site, you may well be greeted by name -- culled from the personal details you entered in your browser options. As Matt Bishop, a professor of computer science at the University of California, Davis, suggests, "give a bogus name. Then the bogus name will be logged." Other tricks: the Web site may use bits of code called "Web bugs" which could figure out which Web site or page you've just come from and next go to. That's about all they can learn for now, this side of the law. But, as Greg Shipley, chief technology officer at U.S.-based security consultants Neohapsis Inc., points out, with the rise of registration services such as Microsoft Passport things might get worse: "In short, it is difficult to attach a name with an IP address right now, but if certain companies have their way, we may not be safe for long."
IS THERE ANY WAY FOR A SOFTWARE MANUFACTURER TO SCAN MY COMPUTER TO SEE WHETHER I'M USING PIRATED VERSIONS OF THEIR SOFTWARE?
Of course, I am not condoning the use of pirated software, but this does raise privacy issues. Some say that there is no way any information can go back to their company without you approving it. But in fact you may well already have done so, since by using the software you have committed yourself to a licence you probably never read. As Jean Camp from Harvard University says: "If you use Microsoft [or Adobe or any other proprietary software provider] who knows what is being transmitted? After all, look at the permissions you give the company in the end-user agreement." Joe Fisher, director of information technology at U.S.-based e-mail-security consultants Tumbleweed Communications, says that manufacturers can zoom in on you using information in your licence data. "When the application makes the licence request, it will also include the IP address of the computer it's using. The manufacturer can use this IP address information to track you down." In some cases, says John Myung , vice-president of product marketing at U.S.-based on-line security consultants RedCannon Security, companies are already doing this: Hewlett-Packard printer software, he says, "sends a message back to HP when you are getting low on ink" which he says could be used, quite legally, to flood you with spam on ink cartridges. HP says that while some of its software does monitor ink levels in its cartridges and can order refills, this can only be done with the user's approval and does not involve HP sending any marketing materials to the user.
IS THERE ANY WAY I CAN CHECK WHETHER A PROGRAM ON MY COMPUTER IS TRANSMITTING INFORMATION ABOUT MY BROWSING HABITS AND OTHER DATA OVER THE INTERNET?
Given the answers to the question above, I and quite a few readers were hoping that there was a program out there which would help figure out what kind of data was being sent back to headquarters. There doesn't seem to be. Right now, the best you can hope for is to install a firewall such as Zone Alarm [
www.zonelabs.com] which at least lets you decide which programs access the Internet and when. Another suggestion: AdAware from LavaSoft [
www.lavasoftusa.com] does a great job of removing cookies and sleazy programs that may or may not be transmitting information about you.
Write to me at
jeremy.wagstaff@feer.comMore expert answers at
http://loosewire.blogspot.com---
UNDER THE WIRE
The Latest Software and Hardware Upgrades, Plug-Ins and Add-Ons
A Virtual Brain
I got some interesting feedback after my column on X1 [
www.x1.com] [Hard-Disk Hide & Seek, July 17], the program which indexes your hard drive for you. Some readers waxed lyrical about other products: Wilbur Indexer [also free, from
http://wilbur.redtree.com/]; something called Vision from Scopeware [http://
www.scopeware.com/]; and The Brain [
http://www.thebrain.com/], which doesn't so much index your hard drive as connect your thoughts -- or Web sites, files or whatever -- in a hierarchical structure that mirrors your brain. I haven't tried the first two, but while I found The Brain intriguing, I guess in the end I was looking for something that didn't so much mirror my brain but improve on it. The software's effort to place your present thought uppermost, and relegate everything else below it in importance to the deep background, left me confused and lost. A bit like my real brain, come to think of it.
More on Spam
From the We Already Knew That But It's Still Interesting Department, FrontBridge Technologies Inc., which calls itself "a trusted provider of e-mail protection and secure messaging services" [as opposed, presumably, to those Distrusted Providers of E-mail Protection], has "revealed the top 10 deceptive subject lines that spammers use to entice their target recipients into opening spam e-mails."
So now you know. Actually, buried in all this glaring obviousness is an interesting point. The use of these kinds of tactics has increased, FrontBridge says, more than 50% in the first six months of the year.
网络安全问题惹人烦
最近，有读者问我几个关于电脑的问题，让我感到要么自己对电脑一窍不通，要么就是它们没那么容易回答。因此，我请教了技术专家，他们的回答证实了以上两点：即答案没那么简单，而我也的确对此一无所知。以下是读者通过电子邮件提出的问题及答案的节选。全文刊登在在我的网志(http:loosewire.blogspot.com)上。
问：有人怎么以我的名义、用我的电子邮件地址发送垃圾邮件？
答：读者对此的抱怨很多，他们会很惊讶地发现，自己的电子邮件地址被用来发送垃圾邮件。他们或是从朋友那里得知这一情况，或是收到被退回的邮件，里面说"不存在这个用户"。专家们说，要做到这一点很容易。俄勒冈卫生及科学大学(Oregon Health and Science University)的计算机教授冯五常(Wu-chang Feng，音译)解释说，在互联网发展早期，学术界制定了名为SMTP的技术协议，允许从用户A发送任何电子邮件到用户B，但不必证实发件人的真实身份。他说，专家们总是对人充分信任。不过，虽然你对这种行为无能为力，但由于它过度泛滥，人们对此已司空见惯，朋友们不会因此而给你脸色看。
问：如果我访问一个网站，该网站能否发现我的身份？
答：几乎所有专家都认为，这个网站至少能知道你的IP(Internet Protocol,即网络协议)地址。IP地址能告诉他们你在哪个国家、通过哪个ISP(Internet Serive Provider, 即网络服务供应商)上网。之后的事情就有些模糊不清了：网站可能在你的电脑内识别出小串字符，即通常所说的"cookie"，并藉此获得更多有关你的身份和职业的个人信息。例如，如果你再次访问该网站，你的名字也许会出现上欢迎页面上－－无疑是从你在浏览器选项上输入的个人信息中采集的。加州大学(University of California)的计算机教授麦特?比什(Matt Bishop)建议："起个假名，然后用这个假名注册。"其他的花招还有：部分网站也许会采用所谓的"网络爬虫"(Web bug)编码，这些爬虫"能弄清楚你刚刚登录了哪些网站或网页，以及下一步打算登录的网站。以上是在法律范围内，网站能够自行搜集到的信息。但正如网络安全咨询服务公司Neohapsis Inc.首席技术长施普利(Greg Shipley)所说的，随著Microsoft Passort等注册服务数量的增长，情况也许会有所恶化："简而言之，如今通过IP地址确认用户名仍存在难度，但如果某些公司有办法做到，长此以往，我们可就没那么安全了。"
问：软件开发商是否能扫描我的电脑，以了解我是否使用了盗版软件？
答：我当然不赞成使用盗版软件，不过这个问题事关个人隐私。一些人认为，在不经得你同意的情况下，信息无法传回软件商那里。但实际上，你可能早已同意这么做了，因为在使用软件的时候，你已经对使用许可证作了承诺，虽然你也许根本没看过。. 哈佛大学(Harvard University)的简?凯普(Jean Camp)说："如果你使用微软公司(Microsoft)（或Adobe等其他享有专利的软件供应商）提供的软件，谁知道什么信息被传送了回去？看看你在终端用户协议中作了哪些许诺吧。"电子邮件安全咨询公司Tumbleweed Communications信息技术主管乔?费什(Joe Fisher)说："在申请获得使用许可证时，需要透露所用电脑的IP地址。软件开发商可以通过这个IP地址来追踪你。"网上安全咨询公司RedCannon Security副总裁约翰?梅格(John Myung)说，在某些情况下，软件商早已这么做了。他说，当你使用的惠普(Hewlett-Packard)打印机墨粉不够时，其软件会向惠普发回相关信息。他称，这一信息可被用来（非常合法地）向你散布无数关于墨盒的信息。惠普表示，虽然该公司的某些软件的确在监控墨粉的多少，并能要求填充，但只有在用户同意的情况下才会这么做，而且公司也不会向用户散布任何营销信息。
问：能否通过某种方法，让我确认电脑上的程序是否在通过互联网传播有关我的浏览习惯等信息？
答：鉴于上述几个问题的答案，我和许多读者都希望能有一个程序帮助用户了解哪些信息被传送了出去。但实际上没有这样的程序。目前，最好的办法是安装一个防火墙，如Zone Alarm (
www.zonelabs.com)等，因为它们至少能让你决定哪些程序在什么时间可以联入互联网。另一个建议是：LavaSoft(
www.lavasoftusa.com)的软件AdAware能有效删除cookie和其他可能传播你的个人信息的可疑程序。
