Asian Econ Outlook:Govts Respond To Global Recovery
THE WAR IN IRAQ is behind us; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, we hope, is history; interest rates are low and governments are spending freely. The conditions are in place and finally it appears the global economy is beginning to pick up.
If so, that's great news for Asia, centre of the world's manufacturing industries. Faster economic growth around the world equals more demand for Asia's exports. That in turn feeds through to higher incomes for the region's workers, creating stronger demand from local consumers.
But caution pays, and after years of being repeatedly coshed by adverse economic shocks, Asia's policymakers are a cautious bunch. To ensure their economies benefit as much as possible from what even the optimists concede will be mild recovery, Asian governments and central banks are going to work hard to prevent any strengthening of their currencies on the international foreign-exchange markets.
Economists, usually a dismal lot, are feeling uncharacteristically bullish. Even in Singapore, which this month announced a painful 4.2% contraction of GDP in the second quarter, officials are upbeat. "Barring a resurgence of SARS, the worst is probably behind Singapore and other regional countries," says Friedrich Wu , director of the economics division at the Ministry of Trade and Industry.
What encourages Wu and his peers most is the second-quarter upturn in the United States' economy. Over the months of April to June, GDP rose by a surprisingly robust 2.4% compared to the same period a year earlier. That's set economists scrambling to revise their forecasts upward. Most now expect a growth rate of around 4% for the second half of the year. It appears that interest rates at four-decade lows and President George W. Bush's massive tax cuts are finally working their dim economic magic.
Even more promising for observers on this side of the Pacific is the 6.9% rise in U.S. business investment recorded in the second quarter. If that trend continues, as surveys of U.S. companies' spending plans suggest, it will mean increasing U.S. demand for the sort of technological wizardry shipped by Asia's factories.
Some manufacturers are already benefiting. The price of benchmark DRAM memory chips has soared by around a third over the last two months, to reach double what they sold for just last October.
U.S. consumer demand is strong, too, with retail sales rising 5.6% last month, compared to July 2002. According to Bill Belchere, Hong Kong-based head of Asia-Pacific economic and policy research at U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase, that demand is set to increase further over coming months as the latest round of Federal tax cuts feeds through to consumers' pockets. "A lot is falling into place," he says. "It all bodes well for Asia."
The good news is not confined to the U.S. Japan, too, is showing unusual signs of economic vigour. There, GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% during the second quarter; hardly a boom, it's true, but a big improvement over the 1.3% recorded between January and April and three times the rate predicted by economists.
Even the economic malaise of the euro zone -- where two of the three largest economies, Germany and Italy, are now in recession -- is not altogether negative for Asia. Over the last 18 months the euro has risen by 15% against the U.S. dollar on a trade-weighted basis, significantly boosting European purchasing power when shopping for Asian exports. That's not all. A rising currency has hurt Europe's competitiveness in global markets, squeezing the European rivals of Asian exporters and accelerating outsourcing to Asia by European companies.
Within the region, China continues to act as an important locomotive for others' growth, sucking in imports at a rate that grew by 43% year on year over the first seven months of 2003. Not even SARS could derail growth, with China's economy still expanding by 8.2% over the first half, compared to 2002's first half.
Expansion at that pace is helping to fuel an enormous shopping spree, as newly rich customers flock to buy mobile phones, air-conditioners and other consumer goods. Retail sales leapt by 10% in July, back up to levels seen in January before the SARS epidemic struck, welcome news for exporters around the region.
But for all the positive signals, global economic recovery is not certain. Improvements in U.S. corporate profits can be attributed largely to cost cutting and the inflation of overseas earnings as the dollar has weakened, leading some analysts to question whether business investment is really set to continue. Equally, economists fret about the stamina of U.S. consumers, noting that household-debt repayments as a proportion of disposable income are at near record levels, despite rock-bottom short-term interest rates. Worse, the recent rise in long-term interest rates, which have shot up to 4.5% from 3.1% just two months ago, has curbed homeowners' appetite for refinancing their mortgages.
That matters to Asia, explains Eddie Wong, chief Asian strategist at ABN-Amro Bank in Hong Kong, because cash generated by mortgage refinancing has contributed as much as 5% of U.S. consumers' disposable income in recent times. "If the 10-year bond yield is sustained at this level, let alone if it goes higher, mortgage refinancing will dry up within three to six months," he warns. "That will obviously have substantial implications for consumption."
A slump in either business or consumer spending in the U.S. would hammer Asian exports at a time when some economists worry that their growth has already peaked. Tim Condon, chief economist at ING Financial Markets, also in Hong Kong, notes that trade growth among the G-3 economies -- the U.S., the euro zone and Japan -- peaked at 19% in March and has since dropped back to 9%. Now he worries Asian export growth will follow the same trajectory.
Others share his fears. "On a year-on-year basis, exports appear very robust. But looked at sequentially -- relative to the last month or last quarter -- growth has definitely slowed," says Sun-Bae Kim, chief economist at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong. "Frankly, I'm scratching my head over this."
It's possible none of these risks will materialize, but Asia's policymakers are unlikely to take any chances. Of course, there is nothing officials in Seoul, Taipei or Singapore can do about the health of the U.S. or Chinese economies. But they can intervene in foreign-exchange markets to ensure their own exports remain competitively priced in the international market place.
Maintaining competitive exchange rates is nothing new to Asia. The region's economic mandarins have long held local currencies down to ensure their exports sell at attractive prices, especially in the key U.S. and Chinese markets.
Keeping currencies down makes sense for other reasons too. Governments stop their currencies rising by having their central banks buy U.S. dollars in the foreign-exchange markets. That allows them to build up foreign-exchange reserves, something Asia has done avidly since the currency crisis of 1997. It also allows them to inject money into their domestic economies, because for every dollar bought, the central bank sells an equivalent amount of its national currency, which passes into the domestic banking system.
For much of Asia, money injected through intervention is proving a vital weapon in the battle against deflation. It is also helping to create a domestic consumer culture as banks, flush with cash, begin extending new forms of credit to individuals. That's crucial because if, for whatever reason, the global recovery fails and demand for Asia's exports dries up, countries in the region will be thrown back upon their own domestic consumer demand to generate growth until global trade picks up.
Sometimes intervention is conducted openly, more often it is covert, but if anyone doubts that Asian countries are pursuing a deliberate policy of holding down the value of their currencies, they have only to look at the rate at which regional central banks are accumulating foreign reserves. In May alone, the value of foreign reserves held by Asia's central banks increased by $75 billion to hit nearly $1.6 trillion, a sum greater than the GDP of Britain.
With few, if any, signs of emerging global inflation, currency intervention is a low-risk policy for Asian countries from Japan to India. It supports vital export sectors while injecting money into the region's domestic economies, assisting reflation and encouraging the development of domestic demand. True, there is the possibility that reckless lending could damage local financial institutions, but that danger can be averted with better credit controls. And if money supply does increase too quickly, in today's low-interest-rate environment central banks can cheaply mop up excess liquidity by borrowing more in their domestic money markets.
With those advantages, it won't matter how much politicians and industrialists in Washington or Brussels carp about undervalued Asian currencies undercutting developed world industries. Regional governments will carry on intervening for now, because, in an uncertain world, it's their best economic policy.
全球经济曙光初现 亚洲各国审慎应对
伊拉克战争结束了；非典型肺炎(SARS)成为了历史，至少我们希望如此；利率如此之低，政府支出如此爽快。一切恢复正常，全球经济增长似乎终于开始复苏。
如果果真如此，这对作为全球制造业中心的亚洲来说绝对是好消息。全球经济增长越快，市场对亚洲出口商品的需求就越大。反过来，亚洲制造业工人收入就越高，本地消费需求也越强劲。
不过，谨慎一点儿总没错。多年来屡受坏消息打击的亚洲政策制定者们现在处处都小心翼翼。在乐观主义者都承认经济仅会温和复苏的情况下，为确保本国经济能从中获取最大利益，亚洲政府和中央银行人士将努力阻止本国货币在国际外汇市场上升值。
经济学家（通常都是悲观派）对前景却很看好。甚至是在本月公布第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)下降4.2%的新加坡，政府官员们也是踌躇满志。新加坡贸易与工业部(Ministry of Trade and Industry)的经济部门主管Friedrich Wu表示，只要SARS不再卷土重来，新加坡和亚洲其他国家的最悲惨境遇就可能已经过去。
给Wu及其同行最大鼓舞的就是美国经济第二季度的增长。4至6月美国GDP出人意料地较上年同期强劲增长了2.4%，使得经济学家匆忙地上调预期。现在大多数经济学家预计美国下半年经济增长率在4%左右。似乎40年以来的最低利率水平和布什(Bush)大规模的减税举措终于唤醒了美国经济的魔力。
更令观察家乐观的现象是，美国第二季度商业投资增长了6.9%。对美国公司支出计划的调查显示，如果商业投资继续增加，美国对亚洲制造的科技产品的需求将增加。
某些亚洲制造商已经开始尝到甜头。基准动态随机存储器(Dynamic Random Access Memory，简称：DRAM)价格过去两月飙升了三分之一，较去年10月增长一倍。
美国的消费需求也很强劲。7月零售额较上年同期增长5.6%。摩根大通公司(J.P. Morgan Chase)驻香港的亚太区经济和政策研究主管贝尔切(Bill Belchere)认为，联邦政府新一轮的减税举措让消费者的钱包鼓了起来，所以未来几月美国的消费需求可能还将进一步增长。
好消息还不仅仅出现在美国，日本也呈现出少见的经济活力。第二季度日本GDP折合成年率增长2.3%；尽管算不上繁荣信号，但比1至4月1.3%的增长率要高得多，也是经济学家预期值的3倍。
甚至是在经济表现欠佳的欧元区--位居三大经济体中的德国和意大利经济都在衰退，也有好消息传出。根据贸易加权方法计算，过去18个月欧元兑美元上涨了15%，有力地增强了欧洲对亚洲出口商品的购买能力。欧元走强伤害了欧洲在全球市场的竞争力，亚洲出口商的欧洲竞争对手深受其害，欧洲公司因而加速了在亚洲的外包活动。
中国仍担当亚洲地区其他国家经济增长引擎。2003年前7个月中国进口较上年同期增长了43%。SARS也没能阻止中国经济增长的步伐，2003年上半年中国经济较上年同期增长8.2%。
经济的快速增长推动了中国的消费热潮，中国新富蜂拥向手机、空调和其他消费品。7月份中国零售额增长10%，恢复到SARS爆发前1月份时的水平。亚洲地区其他国家出口商当然很乐于见到这种现象。
但是，所有这些正面迹象并不能确切表明全球经济正在复苏。美国公司利润增加主要是因为削减成本和海外公司收入受美元贬值影响而膨胀，某些分析师因此怀疑美国商业投资是否能持续。经济学家同样担心美国消费的持久性。尽管短期利率已经触底，但美国家庭的还贷金额占可支配收入的比例已经接近历史最高水平。更糟糕的是，最近长期利率从两个月前的3.1%上升到4.5%，遏制了业主按揭再融资的欲望。
荷兰银行(ABN AMRO Bank)驻香港的亚洲首席策略师Eddie Wong认为，美国消费趋势对亚洲影响很大，来自按揭再融资的资金已经占美国消费者可支配收入的5%。他警告称，只要10年期债券收益率维持在此水平上，按揭再融资也将在3至6个月内枯竭，更不用说收益率继续上扬了。这显然将对消费产生实质性影响。
无论是美国商业衰退还是美国消费支出减少，都将重创亚洲出口，某些经济学家担心亚洲出口增长已经达到顶峰。ING Financial Markets驻香港的首席经济学家康登(Tim Condon)指出，美国、欧元区和日本三大经济体贸易继三月份增长19%之后又回落到9%。他担心亚洲出口增长也将沿袭同样轨迹。
有些人与他的观点相同。高盛(Goldman Sachs)香港亚太区经济研究部董事总经理金□培(Sun-Bae Kim)也认为，同上年相比，出口增长率很高，但如果与上个月或上个季度比较而言，出口增长实际上是在减慢。
也许所有这些风险最终都不会成为现实，但亚洲政策制定者不愿意冒险。当然，汉城、台北和新加坡当局对美国或中国大陆经济能否健康发展无能为力，但他们可以通过干预外汇市场来保证其出口商品在国际市场具有价格竞争力。
维持具有竞争力的汇率水平对亚洲来讲并不少见。一直以来，亚洲国家经济要人都通过压低汇率来确保出口商品在价格上具有吸引力，特别是在重要的美国和中国市场。
保持本国货币的低汇率还有其他好处。政府让央行在外汇市场上购买美元来阻止本国货币走高。这使政府建立起充足的外汇储备，也是1997年金融危机以来亚洲政府一直热衷的事情。同时，它也使政府能够给国内经济注入足够资金，因为央行每买进1美元，它就必须卖出同等数量的本国货币，卖出的本国货币进入国内银行系统。
对亚洲大多数国家而言，通过政府干预外汇市场而注入的资金是对抗通货紧缩的有效武器。它还有助于培养国内的消费习惯，因为现金充足的银行面向个人提供新形式的信贷。这一点很重要，因为一旦全球经济难以复苏，亚洲出口商品市场需求将会枯竭，亚洲国家回过头来必须依赖本国消费需求才能拉动经济增长，直至全球贸易恢复增长。
政府的干预有时是公开操作，但更多的时候是暗中进行。如果有人怀疑亚洲政府是否真的有意压低本国货币价值，他们只要看一看亚洲国家央行外汇储备比例就能够得到答案。仅5月份一个月，亚洲国家央行外汇储备价值增加了750亿美元，总计1.6万亿美元，比英国的GDP还高。
由于全球通货膨胀压力不大（如果有的话），从日本到印度等亚洲国家货币干预的风险很低。货币干预通过为国内经济注入资金、支持通货再膨胀、拉动内需等手段支撑了本国的出口业。没错，草率借贷可能会损害当地金融机构，但其风险可以通过更好的信贷控制来弥补。如果货币供应量迅速增加，在目前的低利率条件下，央行可以通过在国内货币市场借款，以较低的代价吸纳多余的流动资金。
正是由于上述优点，所以不管华盛顿和布鲁塞尔的政治家和实业家怎样抨击亚洲货币贬值损害了发达国家的利益，亚洲国家也不在乎。亚洲政府暂时还将继续进行货币干预，因为在这个充满不确定性的世界里，这是他们经济政策上选。
