For 2006, the Laugh's on the Scribblers
AN ENGINEER, A CHEMIST and an economist are marooned on an island ....Maybe you've heard that classic joke. But either way, it's worth reviewing, since it bears directly on Tuesday's stock-market rally in response to release of the Dec. 13 minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, the group within the Fed that decides on interest-rate targets.
The FOMC minutes apparently persuaded the market that the end of interest-rate tightening was near, based on such circumlocutions as, "Although future action would depend on the incoming data...the outlook for policy was seen by most members as indicating that, given the information now in hand, the number of additional firming steps required probably would not be very large."
So these three professionals are marooned on the island, and they find a can of tuna but have no way to open it.
Says the engineer: "Let's find a rock and crush the can open."
Suggests the chemist: "That's impractical. A better idea is to find some chemicals and blast it open."
Quoth the economist: "You people are truly misguided. There's only one way: Let's assume we have a can-opener...."
Reminds you of a bunch of stock traders marooned in a sea of ignorance about Fed policy who find the FOMC minutes and say to each other, "Let's assume Ben Bernanke was at the meeting...."
In case anyone forgot, Ben Bernanke (pronounced berNANKee), is due to take over the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve the first of February. Having resigned from the Fed Board of Governors last June to become chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, he did not attend that Dec. 13 meeting. Nor will he attend that Jan. 31 meeting -- the last one to be chaired by outgoing Fed chief Alan Greenspan.
And don't think Bernanke gets secretly "conferenced-in." Protocol alone would forbid him from having any meaningful contact with FOMC members, even if Mr. Greenspan's ego didn't actively discourage it.
Accordingly, the first FOMC statement and minutes that will bear the stamp of Ben Bernanke's policy preferences will be dated March 28. But he will no doubt telegraph his thinking well before then, especially when he delivers the Fed chairman's semiannual testimony before Senate and House committees in mid-February.
What will he say? No, I'm not going to assume I have the can-opener to his thoughts.
The Bernanke wild card lends extra levity to that classic quip about how economists show they have a sense of humor: by putting decimal places in their forecasts. Reminds you of such risible statements like the following in last week's Wall Street Journal: "The consensus forecast of 56 economists...is that...gross domestic product...will grow at an annual rate of 3.5% in the first half of 2006 and 3.1% in second half. As for forecasters saying they "expect the nation to add roughly 178,500 new jobs per month in 2006," that was less funny than tragic: "the nation" better do a lot more than that to make up for the millions of jobs due to be destroyed.
To be fair, the 56 economists the Journal polled were apparently sensitive to the possibility that Mr. Bernanke will want to hit the air flying as an inflation hawk. He will almost surely be inheriting a worrisome inflation trend when he takes over. So chances are he will continue to hike the interest-rate on federal funds without feeling bound by the FOMC statement about the number of "additional firming steps" not being "large." These additional firming steps will probably have to be large enough to make him feel that inflation has been effectively curbed.
So expect the fed-funds rate target, currently at 4.25%, to rise to 5% or higher by summer. And don't expect rates to be cut at the first sign of an economic slowdown, even a potentially worrisome slowdown in the housing market.
As for peering further into the tuna-fish can of Bernanke's intentions, Free Market Inc. chief economist Mike Lewis makes the fair point that the incoming chairman seems devoted to the related goals of transparency and predictability. That, plus his "criticism of 'panicky' Fed responses in the 1970s and '80s and milder chastisement of Greenspan's dramatic rate cuts in 2001," comments Lewis, "all indicate that the new chairman will strive for a slow and steady approach."
So expect interest-rate hikes to continue in "measured" 25 basis-point (quarter-point) steps. This will probably mean that relatively strong economic growth in the first half this year of nearly 4% should give way to weaker growth in the second half of close to 3%. The consumer should continue to fare reasonably well, as the labor market continues to generate a pickup in the growth rate of wage and salary income.
Speaking of the labor market, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.9% in December, while nonfarm payroll employment rose by 108,000. Setting aside the statistical noise of monthly fluctuations, 2005 has been yet another year of solid job gains.
Through the last half of the year, the rate of joblessness has averaged 5.0%, down from 5.4% in the last half of '04. Payroll employment gains of about a 170,000 a month -- modest by the standards of the 'Nineties -- have been sufficient to bring this steady decline. With similar gains likely in 2006, expect the rate of joblessness to move solidly into the mid-4% region by the last half of this year.
Finally, here's the safest prediction of all: In 2006, at least 12 million jobs will be destroyed. The reason it's safe is that at least that many have been destroyed in the private sector alone every year since 1998. Such figures place in bold relief the statements of fear-mongers like Lou Dobbs that "400,000 to 500,000 jobs a year are being exported to cheap overseas labor markets." That sounds like a lot, if (as the Journal would have it) "the nation" can be expected only to "add 178,500 new jobs per month in 2006."
The truth is, the nation must first create at least a million new jobs per month before there can be any job gains at all. Once you bear that in mind, Dobbs' projected losses start looking like rounding errors.
So here's hoping that, in 2006, the nation's journalistic scribblers will finally resolve to stop taking such poetic license with the way they report job gains. It conjures up a vision of the labor markets that is not only false, but positively harmful. Like the economist on that island who might say, "Let's assume there were a million jobs created...."
2006年别再信口开河了
一位工程师、一位化学家和一位经济学家被放逐到一个小岛上......或许你已听说过这个经典的笑话。不过，这则笑话无论如何还是值得重温一遍的，因为它与股市上周二的上扬十分对景，而美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)的利率决策机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC) 12月13日会议纪要的公布是造成此次股市上涨的直接原因。
这份会议纪要显然使市场认为，利率紧缩周期即将结束，因为纪要是这样说的：“虽然未来的行动要取决于将陆续公布的数据......但（FOMC的）多数成员眼中的政策前景是：鉴于目前所得到的信息，需要继续坚定迈出的步子可能已不必很多了。”
再说说那三位被放逐到小岛上的专业人士，他们发现了一罐金枪鱼罐头，但却没办法打开它。
工程师说：“让我们找块石头把它砸开吧。”
化学家则说：“这不现实，最好是找些化学药剂来把它炸开。”
经济学家说道：“你们的想法全不对。只有一个办法：让我们假定我们有一个罐头开启器......”
设想一下，一批股票交易员被放逐到了Fed政策的茫茫之海上，他们发现了FOMC的会议纪要，然后对彼此说道：“让我们假定本?贝南克(Ben Bernanke)出席了那次会议吧......”
诸位别忘了，本?贝南克将于2月1日接任Fed主席一职。鉴于他去年6月已辞去Fed理事的职务而出任总统经济顾问委员会(Council of Economic Advisers)主席一职，因此他没有出席12月13日的会议。他也不会出席FOMC在1月31日的会议，而这将是格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)主持的最后一次FOMC会议。
别指望贝南克会被获准秘密“与会”。法律禁止他与FOMC的成员有任何有实质性接触，虽然格林斯潘在这方面盯得并不那么紧。
因此，带有贝南克政策倾向烙印的FOMC会后声明和会议纪要只有在FOMC的3月28日会议后才会浮出水面。但无疑在那之前他的想法就会透露出来，特别是当他2月中旬以Fed主席身份向国会作半年一次的报告时。
他会说些什么？不得而知，我不会假定手里已经有了可了解他想法的罐头开启器。
贝南克的想法这一不确定因素使那句关于经济学家们如何展示其幽默感的经典双关语更加语意含糊：经济学家们通过在预测数字里加小数来展示其幽默感。别忘了《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)上周的那则可笑声明：56位经济学家的普遍预期值是......国内生产总值......在2006年上半年的年增长率是3.5%，下半年的年增长率是3.1%。至于预测师们所说的“预计美国2006年每月将新增178,500个左右工作岗位”那句话，与其说是可笑还不如说是可悲，美国在弥补那些注定要消失的上百万工作岗位（下面将会谈到）方面做得可不怎么样。
《华尔街日报》调查的那56位经济学家显然对贝南克可能会成为反通货膨胀斗士十分敏感。到贝南克接掌Fed时，通货膨胀趋势几乎肯定是令人担忧的。因此他很有可能继续上调联邦基金利率，不会被FOMC会议纪要中那句话──需要继续坚定迈出的步子可能已经不多──束缚住手脚。要使贝南克感到通货膨胀势头已得到有效遏制，这类步子可能还且有得迈呢。
因此，目前为4.25%的联邦基金利率到今年夏天时有可能升至5%甚至更高水平。也别指望一有美国经济增长将会减缓的苗头Fed就会降息，即使是美国住房市场的热度出现令人担忧的下降也不能使Fed这样做。
说到要进一步探究贝南克的想法这个金枪鱼罐头，Free Market Inc.的首席经济学家迈克?刘易斯(Mike Lewis)讲了句公道话。他说，这位即将莅任的Fed主席似乎将致力于追求透明度和可预见性这两个目标。再考虑到贝南克对Fed在上世纪70和80年代应对不利局面时的“惊慌失措”表现持批评态度，以及格林斯潘2001年大幅降息的举措所产生的副作用，刘易斯因而认为贝南克将会采取循序渐进的政策取向。
他预计，Fed将会继续以每次25个基点的“有分寸”步伐加息。这意味著今年上半年接近4%的强劲经济增长率到下半年时将减弱为接近3%的水平。而消费者支出也应继续有良好增长，因为在工资上涨的情况下就业市场仍在增长。
谈到就业市场，美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)上周五宣布，美国12月份的失业率为4.9%，基本未变，而当月的非农就业人数增加了108,000人。如果不考虑月度波动因素，2005年又是一个就业人数稳固增长的年头。
美国去年下半年的平均失业率是5.0%，低于2004年下半年5.4%的水平。非农就业人数每月大约增加170,000人，虽然以上世纪90年代的水平来衡量并不算抢眼，但也足以确保失业率的稳步下降了。鉴于2006年的每月新增就业人数仍有望维持在这一水平，预计到今年下半年，美国的失业率将进一步降至4.4%至4.7%的水平。
最后再来谈谈一个最保险的预测：2006年，美国至少有1,200万个就业岗位将会消失。说这一预测肯定不会错的理由是，自1998年以来美国私营领域每年消失的工作岗位从没少于过这个数。这一数字会让卢?达布斯(Lou Dobbs)等专门散布恐惧情绪的人举出的数字相形失色。达布斯说，美国每年有40万至50万个就业岗位被出口到有廉价劳动力的海外市场。《华尔街日报》更确切的说法应是，美国“2006年每月只能新增178,500个就业岗位。”
事实上，美国每月至少应新增100万个就业岗位才能保证美国的就业岗位能够净增。如果明白这一点，达布斯所估计的工作岗位流失数就不值一提了。
真希望美国的那些三流报人2006年时能不再用这些诗化的语言来报导新增就业人数，因为这样报导就业市场情况不仅是错误的，而且是有害的。就像被放逐到小岛上的那位经济学家可能说的：“让我们假定会有100万个就业岗位被创造出来......”
