Sweaty Donkey Ears And Peeping Frogs? That Must Mean Rain
Brazilian Seers Look for Signs
Of Showers Amid Drought;
A Dentist's 'Vigil of Noah'
QUIXADA, Brazil -- In a parched field of rocks and brush, Antonio Tavares da Silva swung a stick and punched a hole in a termite nest wedged in the crook of a solitary tree. Mr. da Silva's face lit up as he peered at the quivering mass of insects. "Lots of termites with wings," he said. "Farmers will be happy to hear this."
For Mr. da Silva, who is known as a profeta da chuva, or rain prophet, winged termites are a sign that rain will soon come to chronically drought-stricken Northeastern Brazil. According to popular wisdom, the termites will need wings to reach higher ground when showers come. Mr. da Silva has lately noted what he considers other augurs of good rains: an abundance of spider webs and the nasal night-time call of the Southern lapwing.
Self-styled weather seers like Mr. da Silva are hallowed figures in villages throughout Brazil's Northeast, a region rich in folklore but poor in nearly everything else, especially precipitation. As the region prepares for the start of its planting season this month, prophets are studying the barren farmland, trying to determine how much rain there will be and when it will fall.
In keeping with a 10-year tradition, a score of the most well-known oracles will gather in this farming center next week and issue forecasts that will be closely watched throughout a region that's home to one-third of Brazil's population. The prophets don't get anything for their predictions, just the gratification of knowing that locals are hanging on their every word.
A 2002 study by the University of Arizona found that the region's subsistence farmers took more stock in the prophets' predictions and in their own observations of a number of folkloric rain signs than they did in government meteorological forecasts. And Karen Pennesi, a University of Arizona doctoral candidate in anthropology, has cataloged 930 different rain indicators, ranging from frogs peeping out of their burrows, to donkeys' ears' sweating.
Chico Leite, a farmer who learned prophecy from his father, was tramping across his land recently looking for his preferred indicator, birds' nests. As a yellow-chested Great Kiskadee fluttered out of one nest, Mr. Leite noted that the entrance to the nest faced the west, away from the direction the rain falls in. "The bird seems to think it's going to get wet," he said, stroking his mustache. Nests facing east suggest dry weather is in the offing.
The Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources, the official forecasting agency of the Northeastern state of Ceara, finds it hard to compete with well-known prophets for farmers' attention. Foundation officials maintain their broad climatic forecasts have been on target about 70% of the time. But many farmers have never forgiven the foundation for its miscues, including its failure to foresee a severe drought in 1993.
Benjamin Orlove, a University of California, Davis, anthropologist who has studied folkloric weather-predicting methods in Brazil, the Andes and Africa, says that kernels of truth can be found in at least some of the Northeast's prophetic traditions. For instance, one widely held belief is that if there has been no rain by the March 19 feast of St. Joseph, a patron saint for farmers, then a full-fledged drought is under way. Meteorologists in this case are inclined to reach a similar conclusion, though for different reasons. In all but unusually dry years, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the low pressure area that produces rain around the equator, should have migrated south over the state of Ceara by March, scientists say.
Edmar Queiroz, who farms 260 acres of corn and sorghum near Quixada, says he doesn't need a scientific seal of approval to validate the advice of a neighborhood prophet. Mr. Queiroz says the prophet, Joaquim Ferreira Santiago, was the only one who foresaw the onset of some early showers last month. By contrast, Mr. Queiroz complains about the timidity of the professional meteorologists, who, he says, "predict rain after you're already wet or drought after the crops are already dead."
Fear of drought is something Northeasterners like Mr. Queiroz feel deep in their bones. A scorching two-year drought that started in 1877 killed 500,000 Northeasterners and forced millions to migrate. During dry spells in more recent years, mobs in some villages have looted food supplies from schools.
The precariousness of existence in the outback has created a ready audience for prophets like Mr. Santiago, who cloak their predictions in mysticism. A wizened 77-year-old, Mr. Santiago says his mission was foretold when he was still inside his mother's womb and gave a start that prompted her to spill a pot of water. Mr. Santiago often makes forecasts by digging a hole in the ground to determine how hot the soil is. A higher ground temperature means that rains will be coming to cool the Earth, he says.
While most prophets are farmers, a handful of them have professional backgrounds, albeit not in meteorology. Paulo Costa de Oliveira, a dentist, conducts what he calls the "Vigil of Noah," a 40-day biblically inspired ritual involving both planetary observations and studies of plants and animals. He says he abstains from sex and alcohol during the vigil.
The prophets are generally collegial with one another, though some turn a little catty about peers whom they consider slipshod. Joao Ferreira de Lima, a 76-year-old prophet and former cowboy, jokes about some rival prophets who once predicted a drought because they spotted ant hills in a dry riverbed. "The rains came and killed the ants along with the prophets' reputations," he says, laughing.
Mr. Lima says he has found a much more reliable indicator than insects. "Armadillos are the animals that will never steer you wrong," he says, cupping his hand over his mouth confidentially. Mr. Lima says that if armadillos are seen with litters of four young, it's a sign that ample rains will produce plenty to eat.
For all the prophets' reputed powers, their calling isn't an easy one. Out in the field, Mr. da Silva has been attacked by swarms of bees and stung by scorpions. He says he has never received gifts from farmers for making accurate forecasts. "But if you are wrong, they track you down very quickly," Mr. da Silva says.
The reward comes when one of his predictions hits the mark and Mr. da Silva can lord it over everybody. When his fortuitous rain projection last year helped some farmers harvest a bumper crop in June, a triumphant Mr. da Silva rode around town in a car with Ms. Pennesi, the anthropologist, and had her brandish an ear of corn out the window, "like a trophy," she says.
看青蛙，说天气
在荆棘和乱石密布的炎热地带，安东尼奥?塔瓦瑞斯?达希尔瓦(Antonio Tavares da Silva)对著一棵孤零零的树挥动一根木棍，把树叉上的白蚁窝捅了个洞。当看到里面蠕动著的大量白蚁时，他的脸泛起喜色。“很多白蚁长出翅膀来了。”他说，“这对农民来说是个好消息。”
达希尔瓦先生是巴西当地的降雨先知，而长翅膀的白蚁是长期遭受乾旱的巴西东北部终将迎来雨水的一个征兆。民间有个说法，大雨来临前，白蚁会长出翅膀以便飞到更高的地方躲避雨水。达希尔瓦最近还发现其他一些降雨的先兆：蜘蛛网增多，南部田凫夜晚时常鸣叫等。
达希尔瓦这类自封的天气预言家在巴西东北部各个村落都非常受人尊重。巴西东北部是一个民俗深厚但资源贫乏、尤其是雨水稀少的地方。每年一月份，当地人就要准备播种，降雨先知们在贫瘠的农田来回逡巡，想弄明白雨水会有多少，以及什么时候能下。
作为坚持了10年的传统，近期将有20个最有名的先知在这个农业区集会，公布天气预测的结果，而占巴西人口三分之一的当地居民会洗耳恭听。先知们不从预测中收取任何报酬，当地人对他们预测结果的信任就是最好的回报。
美国亚利桑那州立大学(University of Arizona)2002年的一项研究表明，与政府气象预报相比，巴西东北部地区的农民更相信先知的气候预测和自己发现的降雨征兆。亚利桑那州立大学的人类学博士生凯伦?佩尼茜(Karen Pennesi)搜集了930种不同的降雨征兆，从青蛙在地穴中往外探头，到驴耳朵出汗等等，不一而足。
农民迟柯?莱特(Chico Leite)从他父亲那里学会预测天气，他最近在自己的田地里来回走动，寻找自己最相信的降雨指示物─鸟巢。当黄胸脯的大吉斯卡鸟(Great Kiskadee)从一个鸟巢中飞出时，莱特注意到鸟巢的入口冲西，和雨水来临的方向相反。“看起来鸟儿觉得很快会被淋湿的，”莱特摸摸胡子，说道。鸟巢冲东则意味著乾旱将会降临。
气象水文基金会(The Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources)是巴西席亚拉省(Ceara)东北部的官方气象预报机构，但它很难和大名鼎鼎的气候先知竞争，吸引农民的关注。基金会官员称自己的气象预报准确率达到70%左右，但许多农民死死记住该机构预报失误的时候，包括1993年其没有预测到严重的乾旱等。
加利福尼亚大学(University of California)的人类学家本杰明?奥拉夫(Benjamin Orlove)曾研究过巴西、安第斯山脉和非洲等地民间预测天气的方法，他说巴西东北部的民间预测方法至少有一些是相当准确的。举例而言，当地很多人认为，如果到3月19日圣约瑟夫节还没有下雨的话，则不久将有大旱。气象学家在这点上做出相似的结论，不过推论原因不同而已。科学家认为，当地大多数乾旱的年份都是因为“热带辐合带”这一能在赤道地区产生降雨的低气压已在3月份越过席亚拉省往南移动了。
耕种著260公顷的玉米和高粱田的埃德玛?盖洛兹(Edmar Queiroz)说自己地区的气象先知不需要得到所谓的科学认证。盖洛兹认为当地先知乔昆?法瑞拉?桑提亚哥(Joaquim Ferreira Santiago)是唯一一个准确预测出上个月那几次降雨的人。他抱怨说，专业气像人员与此相反，显得懦弱无能，“等人浑身湿透才预报有雨，等庄稼死光后才预报有旱灾。”
旱灾是盖洛兹这样的巴西东北部农民打骨子里害怕的东西。1877年开始的两年大旱导致50万东北部农民死亡，逼迫数百万人流离失所。在一些近期的旱灾中，有些村子里的凶悍之徒竟然去学校抢吃的。
内陆地区多变的生存状况给桑提亚哥这样给出神秘预测的先知带来很多信徒。77岁的桑提亚哥形容枯槁，他说自己一生的使命早在出生前就已注定，他的预测生涯就是从在娘胎促使他妈妈打翻了一罐清水开始的。桑提亚哥经常在地上挖个洞，看土壤有多热，从而预测天气。地面温度越高，就意味著天越有可能下雨来给土壤降温，他说道。
虽然大多数先知都是农民，但有些先知具备专业知识背景，虽然不是在气象学方面。一位叫保罗?奥利维拉(Paulo Costa de Oliveira)的先知是个牙医，他在预测天气时会举行一种叫“诺亚守夜”的受圣经启发的宗教仪式，为期40天，活动包括观察星象和研究植物动物等。他说自己在仪式期间会禁欲和禁酒。
先知们大多很团结，不过也有一些对同行看不顺眼，觉得他们是滥竽充数。76岁的先知乔?里玛(Joao Ferreira de Lima)以前是个牛仔，他嘲笑有些先知把在乾涸的河床发现蚁堡作为预测乾旱的依据。“结果大雨来了，把蚁堡和那些先知的声誉都冲个稀巴烂，”里玛笑著说道。
里玛说他发现一个比观察昆虫可靠得多的方法。“犰狳是一种永远不会给你错误信号的动物，”他把手捂在嘴边小声说道，如果犰狳生出4个孩子，就意味著未来雨水很多，导致食物充足。
虽然先知声名显赫，但他们的活儿也不好干。在野外，达希尔瓦得不断忍受蜜蜂和蝎子的叮咬。他说自己从未因准确预报天气而收到村民的任何礼物。“而如果你预报错了，他们会一直揪著你不放。” 达希尔瓦说道。
当预测准确时，达希尔瓦的回报就是可以向大家炫耀自己的权威。2005年他幸运地预测准了一场雨，让一些农民在6月收获到一茬玉米。得意洋洋的达希尔瓦和人类学家佩尼茜女士坐在一辆汽车里绕著镇子转悠，并让她把手伸出车窗挥舞著玉米穗子，“就像得了奖杯一样。”佩尼茜说道。
