Steelmakers boost output to avoid closure by Beijing
Chinese steelmakers have been increasing their capacity in a bid to grow too big to face closure under government-led attempts to rationalise the booming sector.
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Four of the country's steelmakers lifted their annual capacity beyond 10m tonnes last year, while a fifth is on course to exceed that level this year - surpassing an unofficial benchmark that should ensure steel companies' survival as "strategic" producers, according to last year's national steel plan.
The steel groups that either have or will soon reach the 10m tonne threshhold are Jinan Steel, Tangshan Steel, Laiwu Steel, the Shanggang Group and Maanshan Steel. Some have increased output organically, while others have taken over smaller steelmakers.
"The expansion of these [five] plants has made them too big for the government to intervene in their operations," said Yang Deze, director of a metals industry research institute in Beijing.
Mr Deze said the government's planning agency had stipulated that steel producers with capacity under 1.5m tonnes would not survive.
China has accounted for 78 per cent of the growth in global steel production since 2000 and produced almost 350m tonnes of the metal last year, a total almost equal to the combined output of Europe and Japan.
Increased steel production is a key barometer for investment, which remains the most important driver of the Chinese economy, ahead of consumption and exports.
The central government has said it wants consumption to take over as the engine of growth for the economy, although this is likely to take some years because of China's high savings rate.
In a report released in Beijing yesterday, the World Bank painted a positive picture of the Chinese economy's prospects this year, predicting a growth rate of 9.2 per cent based on strong investment and exports, coupled with low inflation.
But the bank's quarterly report said that the main domestic risk was that "abundant liquidity will re-fuel credit and investment".
"Banks have lots of free cash in their vaults and companies have profits which can be turned into credit without any constraint," said Bert Hofman, the Bank's chief China economist.
Despite complaints about China exporting goods at below cost because of excess domestic production, the World Bank said there was no hard evidence to back up claims of chronic overcapacity.
"Just because a plant can produce more than it currently does would not necessarily mean that there's a huge problem - especially not with China," said Mr Hofman.
中国钢厂“做大”求生
中国钢铁生产商一直在增加产能，以扩大规模，不至于因政府对繁荣的钢铁产业进行调控而面临关闭。
去年，中国有4家钢铁厂把年产能提高到了1000万吨以上，另有一家今年即将超过这一水平。按照国家去年制定的钢铁计划，超过1000万吨这个非正式标准，钢铁企业就可以确保自身作为“战略”生产商而生存下去。
已经达到或不久将达到1000万吨大关的钢铁集团包括济南钢铁集团(Jinan Steel)、唐山钢铁集团(Tangshan Steel)、莱钢集团(Laiwu Steel)、上钢集团(Shanggang Group)和马鞍山钢铁(Maanshan Steel)。一些已通过自身增长增加了产量，而另一些集团则兼并了规模较小的钢铁厂。
“这(5家)钢厂的扩张已使规模搞得很大，大到政府无法干预它们的经营了，”北京某金属研究院院长杨德泽表示。
杨先生表示，政府的规划机构此前规定，产能不足150万吨的钢铁厂将被关闭。
在2000年以来的全球新增钢产量中，中国占据了78%。去年中国生产钢铁近3.5亿吨，几乎相当于欧洲和日本产量的总和。
钢铁产量的增加是重要的投资晴雨表。投资仍排在消费与出口前面，是中国经济最重要的驱动力。
昨天在北京公布的一份报告中，世界银行对今年中国经济的前景作了积极的描绘。世界银行预测今年中国投资与出口将呈强势，加上通胀将处于低水平，并以此为基础预测今年中国经济增长率为9.2%。
世界银行中国首席经济学家郝福满(Bert Hofman)表示：“银行有大量自由现金储备，企业可以凭产生的利润不受任何限制地获得信贷。”
尽管有人抱怨中国由于国内产能过剩而低于成本价出口商品，世界银行表示，目前没有确凿证据支持持续存在产能过剩的说法。
