Oil: Rocketing price is not shock it used to be
Just a couple of years ago, if one had asked almost any economist, oil minister, central banker or Wall Street analyst to predict what would happen if oil prices doubled to $40 a barrel in 2004 and then gained another $15 in 2005, they would have warned of a resulting recession.
History backs the theory, with downturns following every oil price spike since the first big shock in 1973. But history has not repeated itself in the past three years.
Ian Harwood, economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, the financial services company, likened the most recent oil price increase’s lack of impact on the world economy to the dog that did not bark.
But what will oil prices do in 2006 and will the canine remain silent? So far the mood is bullish, largely because the usual dip in futures prices at the start of the year has not yet materialised. In fact, 2006 has begun with a rally that took prices past $67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) and to levels not seen in four months.
Expectations of “dynamic” world economic growth that could outpace 2005 underpinned the upward trend, while tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions added to the risk premium in the price of oil. Supply interruptions in Nigeria have helped push up the price further.
In a recent report, Paul Horsnell and Kevin Norrish at Barclays Capital wrote: “That prices have started out so strongly in the one quarter that we think might be able to generate a gentle swing down, means the prognosis for bearish outlooks for 2006 is already looking a tad fragile.”
Forecasts for the average price of Nymex crude oil futures in 2006 range between $45 and $75 a barrel. Prices are notoriously difficult to estimate due to poor demand and supply data and because unexpected disruptions caused by war, hurricanes and sanctions can cause price spikes. But the range has been given added credence by Opec’s hints that it will aim to defend prices of at least $50 to $55 a barrel. Underpinning the hypothesis is that strong economic growth is expected to increase the world’s consumption of oil by at least 1.7m barrels a day to more than 85m b/d in 2006.
That would mean the fourth straight year of high oil prices. But increasing numbers of oil executives and economists believe the world has entered a new oil price paradigm, one the economy should be able to handle at least in 2006.
One explanation for their optimism is the relative lack of lasting impact the record $72.85 a barrel oil price appears to have had on the US economy after Hurricane Katrina slammed into the country’s energy heartland in August last year.
Recent US GDP growth numbers have been strong, and industrial activity in, Europe and developed Asian countries has improved, Francisco Blanch, analyst at Merrill Lynch, points out, adding that OECD economic indicators are pointing up across the board and that non-OECD economies, especially China, also remain strong.
But why is the world economy so robust in the face of high oil prices?
Mr Harwood lists the main factors as the relatively soft monetary policy response necessary to curb inflation in the past three years, and the ability of consumers to use gains in the value of their houses and other assets to help offset more expensive energy bills.
Another, simpler explanation is that our energy bills look more expensive than they really are. We are spending less of our household income on energy than we did in the early 1980s. In fact the oil price remains significantly lower in real terms than it was in 1980 when the Iranian revolution and the start of the Iran-Iraq war sent oil prices to an all-time high, which in today’s terms would equate to more than $100 a barrel.
Meanwhile, the oil price rise of the past years is fundamentally different to previously because it is driven by strong demand, rather than a sudden shortage of supply, such as was the case during the 1973 embargo and in the aftermath of the Iranian revolution.
Challenges such as the squeeze in refining capacity and the lack of access to the world’s biggest remaining oil reserves, in the Middle East and in the Arctic reaches of Russia, are also important. How they are solved will have a big impact on whether the world economy can continue to grow at today’s pace.
In fact, access to energy may well be the defining battle of the century, one that will decide whether developing countries such as China and India can emerge from poverty and whether industrialised nations can maintain their comfortable way of life.
But at least for 2006 the picture looks a lot less daunting. The challenge will be to make sure that such comfort does not delay the political and financial investments that are necessary to safeguard the longer term.
世界进入石油新格局
就
在几年前，要是有人请几乎任何一位经济学家、石油部长、央行行长或华尔街分析师进行预测：如果石油价格在2004年翻倍至每桶40美元，2005年再涨15美元会怎样，他们都会警告经济衰退会随之而来。
历史数据亦支持这个理论，自1973年首次大规模石油危机以来，每次油价飚升之后都会出现经济衰退。但在过去三年，历史没有重演。
最近石油价格上涨未能影响世界经济，对此金融服务企业德利佳华(Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein)的经济学家伊恩?哈伍德(Ian Harwood)把它比作不吠的狗。
但2006年的油价会怎样，狗还会继续默不作声吗？迄今为止，市场情绪是看涨的，主要原因是通常在年初出现的期货价格下跌还没有出现。实际上，2006年伊始，纽约商品交易所(Nymex)油价回升，突破了每桶67美元，创下4个月来的新高。
人们期望世界经济增长“动态”可能会超过2005年的水平，这支撑了油价的上涨趋势，而在伊朗核计划问题上的紧张态势，则增加了油价的风险溢价。尼日利亚石油供应的中断促使油价进一步上涨。
巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)的保罗?霍斯耐尔(Paul Horsnell)和凯文?诺里什(Kevin Norrish)在最近的一份报告中写道：“我们以为油价可能会在这一季度缓慢下降，但油价一开始的表现却如此强劲，这意味着，看跌2006年的预测展望看来有点站不住脚了。”
纽约商品交易所原油期货2006年的预测均价介于每桶45到75美元之间。由于供求数据不足，而且战争、飓风和制裁导致的意外供油中断会使价格飚升，因此价格难以预测是人所共知的。但石油输出国组织(Opec)暗示，它打算维持每桶至少50至55美元的价格水平，因此这一预测区间就更可信了。支持这一假设的理由是，强劲的经济增长预计将让2006年的全球石油消耗每天至少增加170万桶，达到每日超过8500万桶的水平。
那意味着连续第4年出现高油价。但越来越多的石油高管和经济学家认为，世界进入了新的油价格局，至少在2006年，经济应该还能应对。
他们之所以乐观，一个原因是去年8月卡特里娜(Katrina)飓风横扫美国能源心脏地带后，每桶72.85美元的创纪录油价似乎也没有对美国经济造成相对持久的影响。
美林(Merrill Lynch)分析师弗朗西斯科?布兰奇(Francisco Blanch)指出，美国近期的国内生产总值(GDP)增长数字一直很强劲，欧洲和亚洲发达国家的工业活动也有了改善。他补充说，经合组织(OECD)的经济指标正趋于全面上涨，非经合组织经济体也仍然强劲，尤其是中国。
但是，面对高油价的世界经济为何如此强劲呢？
哈伍德列举了以下主要因素：过去3年抑制通胀所需的相对温和的货币政策反应，以及消费者能够利用他们住房和其它资产价值的增长，来帮助抵消更昂贵的能源账单。
另一个更简单的解释是，我们的能源账单看上去比实际价格要贵。我们现在用于能源的家庭收入，要比80年代初少。实际上，目前的石油价格按实际价值计算，仍然要比1980年时低得多。当时伊朗革命和两伊战争的爆发把油价推到了历史高位，以今天的价格计算超过每桶100美元。
同时，过去几年的油价上涨与以前有着本质区别，因为它是受强劲的需求推动，而不是因为突然的供应短缺，就像1973年的石油禁运，以及伊朗革命后的短缺情形。
人们还面临一些重大挑战，比如炼油产能降低、缺少获取全球最大现存石油储藏(中东和俄罗斯北极地区)的途径。如何解决这些挑战，对于全球经济能否继续以目前的速度增长将产生重大影响。
实际上，获取能源很可能是本世纪的一场决定性战役，它将决定中国与印度等发展中国家能否从贫困中崛起，工业化国家能否保持其惬意的生活方式。
但至少就2006年来看，情况并非十分可怕。确保这种安逸感不会拖延保障长期石油供应所需的政治与经济投资，才是我们面临的挑战。
