Bulls Are Fighting the Old Ennui
FATIGUE, AS ALERT DOCTORS and nagging mothers will remind you, is caused by work but exacerbated by worry.
Early last week, the diagnosis of what ailed the stock market was a rather straightforward case of buyer exhaustion. The symptoms were obvious enough: As the giddy rush from the new year and new money wore off, stocks' progress had begun to look labored in the face of high profit expectations. The same small-cap stocks that spearheaded January's charge now led the slide. Front-running sectors like energy and financials stumbled. The red-hot gold and commodity group lost some of its sheen.
A midweek rebound steadied the market, but any pep mustered was quickly sapped by mounting concerns about economic growth. Demand for longer-term bonds pushed the yield of 10-year Treasury's uncharacteristically far below that for two-year notes on Friday (see Current Yield). Whether this inverted yield curve signals a looming recession or merely global appetite for U.S. assets is a matter of spirited debate among economists and bond geeks. But it disquieted a stock market that was already a tad weary and on edge.
The Standard & Poor 500 Index dipped Tuesday below 1255, its lowest close of this young year, but recovered to finish the week up three points to 1267. It is up 1.5% this year but off 2.2% from its Jan. 11 peak.
The action in the other benchmarks was more telling. Reflecting perhaps a flight to quality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to reverse six weeks of underperformance to its small-cap peers, gaining 125, or 1.2%, to 10919.
Small stocks lagged. The Russell 2000 Index had surged 8.9% in January but last week lost 7, or 1%, to 717. The Nasdaq Composite Index, slipping in five over the past seven sessions, edged down one point to 2261. Gold was remarkably volatile, and crude oil continued its retreat from late-January levels above $68 to fall below $62.
As the earnings season winds down, the stock market's chain will be yanked even more by economic data and postulations about monetary policy, and much attention will focus on the new Federal Reserve chairman's Congressional testimony this week. Given recent concerns that the Fed may extend its campaign of interest rate hikes, any wish-fulfilling the-end-is-in-sight hints would inject a little vim into stocks. But beyond that, the market is running out of short-term catalysts it can ride to meaningful new highs.
Little that is conclusive can be said for now about the market's tired trudge. Last week's weakness in small-caps and energy, for instance, may indicate either profit taking or the start of a broader repositioning, says Stephen Sachs, Rydex Investments' director of trading. But coming in a week with thin economic news flow and few earnings reports, when traders were looking for the market to set the tone for the coming months, the bulls can't find the recent cues all too encouraging.
Despite a shallow bounce to finish the week, stocks could gain no traction even when oil prices slipped in four of the past five days toward a four-week low. Just as drug makers seemed to have steadied their footing, Pfizer (PFE) warned that 2006 profits will fall shy of expectations. Market leaders like Apple Computer (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) continued to struggle, as did bellwethers from Intel (INTC) to Citigroup (C). And "like a pebble in our shoe, the little conundrum of the inverted yield curve won't go away," notes John Roque, Natexis Bleichroeder's technical strategist.
The profit picture -- the one in the rear view mirror -- isn't all bad. Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Disney (DIS) beat forecasts last week, and with 80% of S&P 500 companies having reported earnings, corporate profits had grown year-over-year by about 15% last quarter -- a tad better than 13.3% anticipated on Jan. 1, says Thomson Financial analyst David Dropsey.
But the projected rate of year-on-year earnings growth for the upcoming quarter now stands at about 10.7%, down from about the 12.1% projected as the year began. While companies typically guide down forecasts to beat them, this conservative tack is disenchanting to a market that has come to demand more.
ONE PERSON'S PANIC IS ANOTHER'S prudence. That's just one reason that trying to discern the emotional condition of a market made of million of individuals is at least as much art as science.
The Citigroup Panic/Euphoria chart that appears alongside The Trader is one of many attempts to employ more science in sentiment analysis. Blending a handful of indicators of investors' behavior and stated attitudes, it's based on the notion that sentiment is as sentiment does. That is, negative sentiment is the condition that tends to precede higher markets by six to 12 months, and positive sentiment the opposite. In effect, it is a reverse-engineered tool.
Because the Citigroup gauge has undergone its annual tweaking this month -- and because it remains an abiding source of commentary and critique from readers -- a detailed explication of its composition and uses probably makes sense.
The model is a retrofitted instrument, meaning it is constructed to measure the conditions which, in the past, have represented what it calls panic, or euphoria, or a neutral state in between. Panic is defined as the state after which the market was higher 12 months later more than 95% of the time since 1987.
Tobias Levkovich, the Citigroup strategist who maintains the index, tests the methodology every year to see whether all the components have retained their apparent predictive ability.
The 2005 version included eight components: a blend of investor-opinion polls, retail money-market fund assets, the put/call option ratio, the short-interest ratio between the public and exchange specialists, the CRB commodity index, gasoline prices, the ratio of Nasdaq to NYSE volume and margin debt.
All of those were retained, and new data items were considered for inclusion. Levkovich says the Arms index (a measure of up/down share volume versus the ratio of advancing and declining stocks) had no predictive power over six months or more. But one indicator -- the NYSE short-interest ratio -- has been added, which Levkovich claims increases the model's predictive power.
市场染上疲劳症
正如保持警觉的医生和絮絮叨叨的母亲提醒你的那样，疲劳是由工作引起的，如果心情焦虑的话，疲劳感就会更为明显。
上周初期，股市萎靡不振的病因一目了然：买盘匮乏。症状也很明显：随著年初以来令人眩目的上涨以及入市的新资金后劲不足，在投资者普遍对公司业绩寄予厚望的情况下，市场开始显出疲态。1月份时引领市场走高的小型股如今成了拖累市场下滑的罪魁祸首。前期大出风头的能源、金融等类股遭到重创，黄金和商品类股也不如以前那样炙手可热。
上周中期的反弹使市场走势稳定下来，但市场刚一流露出试图上涨的迹象，就遭到投资者对经济增长前景更加感到担心的抑制。上周五，对中长期债券的需求推动10年期美国国债收益率一反常态地远远落后于2年期美国国债。收益率曲线的倒置究竟是经济衰退的预兆，还是仅仅反映出全球投资者对美国资产的兴趣？这个问题在经济学家和债市专家中引发了激烈的争论。但收益率曲线的倒置使得本已带有倦意、有些紧张不安的市场更加草木皆兵。
标准普尔500指数上周二跌破1255点，创出今年以来的最低收盘点位。但之后走出反弹行情，上周五收盘时涨3点，至1267点。该指数今年以来累计上涨了1.5%，但比1月11日时的高点下跌了2.2%。
其他基准指数的走势恐怕更具说服力。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上周扭转了连续6周表现逊于小型股的走势，上周涨125点，至10919点，涨幅1.2%。这或许反映出投资者避险意识正在升温。
小型股表现欠佳。1月份涨幅达8.9%的罗素2000指数上周跌7点，至717点，跌幅1%。在过去7个交易日中有5天下跌的那斯达克综合指数上周收盘跌1点，至2261点。金价大幅震荡，油价从1月下旬的高于每桶68美元跌至62美元的下方。
随著收益季节接近尾声，市场走势将在更大程度上受到经济数据和货币政策预期的影响。本周，美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)新任主席贝南克(Bernanke)在国会发表讲话将吸引众多投资者的目光。由于市场近来担心Fed可能会延长本轮加息周期，如果贝南克给出加息周期即将告一段落的暗示，就会为市场注入一丝活力。但在此之后，就别指望市场会大幅上扬、创出历史新高了，因为市场在近期内没有什么刺激上涨的催化剂。
但现在还不大好断言市场的这种疲软态势将走向何方。例如，Rydex Investments的交易主管斯蒂芬?萨克斯(Stephen Sachs)认为，上周小型股和能源类股的低迷既可能是获利回吐，也可能意味著市场开始了更大规模的调整。本周的情况是经济数据屈指可数、收益报告寥寥无几，而此时交易员正在寻找相关线索，以便为接下来的几个月定下基调。不过，看涨投资者会发现近期的一些迹象并不全都是特别振奋人心。
尽管上周股市收盘微幅走高，但当油价在上周的5个交易日中有4天下跌，几乎创出4周来新低时，却并未给股价带来进一步的上涨动力。就在制药商看来能保持稳定发展的势头时，辉瑞制药有限公司(Pfizer Inc.)却发布预警称，2006年利润将低于预期。苹果电脑公司(Apple Computer Inc.)和Google等市场龙头表现依然疲弱，英特尔(Intel)和花旗集团(Citigroup)等领头羊也是如此。Natexis Bleichroeder的技术分析策略师约翰?罗克(John Roque)指出，就像我们鞋子中的石子一样，收益率曲线反转所带来的谜团不会消失。
已经公布的企业收益并不都很糟糕。思科系统(Cisco Systems Inc., 简称：思科)和沃尔特-迪斯尼公司(Walt Disney Co.)上周公布了超过预期的业绩，Thomson Financial的分析师大卫?德罗西(David Dropsey)说，在标准普尔500指数已公布业绩的80%的成分股中，上季度的公司利润比上年同期增长约15%，略好于1月1日时预计的13.3%。
但对本财季的公司利润增长预期目前为10.7%左右，低于年初时的约12.1%。尽管企业一般会发布较低的预期以便于超越，但这种保守的做法让胃口越来越高的投资者提不起兴致来。
一个人的恐慌会导致其他人谨慎从事。这也是分析市场上数百万投资个体的情绪状况成为一门科学的原因。
花旗集团的恐慌/乐观图表是希望科学地分析市场人气的众多尝试之一。该图表将众多有关投资者行为和情绪的指标结合到一起进行分析，得出的结论是，负面的人气预示著今后6至12个月里市场会上扬，而正面的人气则恰恰相反。实际上，这是一个反向指标。
由于这个花旗集团的指标本月进行了年度调整，也由于其经常受到读者的评论和批评，我们在这里详细介绍一下其构成和用法。
该模型是一个回溯工具，这意味著它主要是衡量过去出现的该模型称之为恐慌、乐观和二者之间的中性状态等情况。
花旗集团编制该指标的策略师托比亚斯?列夫科维奇(Tobias Levkovich)每年都对这种方法进行测试，观察是否所有要素都能继续具有明显的预测力。
2005年版的该指标包括八个要素：众多的投资者看法调查结果、零售货币市场基金的资产、看涨/看跌期权的比率、公众和交易所投机者的看空比率、美国商品研究局(CRB)商品指数、汽油价格、那斯达克与纽约证交所成交量的比率和保证金借款。
列夫科维奇保留了以上所有要素，并在考虑加入新的要素。他说，Arms指标（上涨/下跌股成交量对上涨/下跌股的比率）对6个月以上的时间没有预测力。但他加入了纽约证交所的看空比率，称这将增加该模型的预测力。
