Internet telephony set to go mobile
Internet telephony over mobile phones took centre stage at the 3GSM World Congress mobile phone conference in Barcelona last week, with two announcements signalling that the mobile phone industry is waking up to the potentially disruptive technology coming its way.
ADVERTISEMENT
"Internet voice is going mobile," said Jorma Ollila, Nokia chief executive, on Monday as the world's biggest maker of mobile handsets unveiled its first mass- market model capable of supporting voice-over-internet protocol. VoIP is the emerging technology that offers cheap calls to users by routing them over the internet, instead of traditional phone networks.
The Nokia 6136 is also "dual-mode": as well as working on mobile GSM networks, it can connect to small wireless networks known as WiFi, which unlike mobile phone networks operate in unregulated spectrum.
Nokia's rival, Motorola of the US, is working on a similar handset and other manufacturers from the mobile industry and those on the periphery, such as Compaq and HP, are working on pocket devices that will support VoIP and WiFi.
In another move underpinning the rapid transformation of the telecoms industry in the digital age, Skype announced last week a tie-up with 3, Hutchison Whampoa's mobile businesses.
Skype, which was acquired by eBay last year, has become synonymous with the disruptive potential of VoIP. The 75m users of Skype's computer software can talk to each other for free, once they have paid a monthly bill for broadband access.
Calls to fixed-line phones from Skype are very cheap compared with rates from traditional telecoms operators; however calls to mobile phones can sometimes be more expensive. Fixed-line operators accept that the spread of broadband, which has a flat-fee payment model and enables good quality internet telephony, will only increase the pressure on traditional voice revenues from per-minute charges.
About a dozen large mobile operators are "actively" looking at offering VoIP-based services, according to one senior industry figure. However, the Skype/Hutchison deal illustrates that Skype is trying to move away from being seen predominantly as a means of free calls, and instead as a source of value-added features, such as messaging and contacts lists, for computer and mobile phone users.
Niklas Zennstr?m, Skype chief executive, said that, for 3, it was a value-added service that would attract new customers and improve loyalty. "I think in general revenues for voice calls are going to decline, regardless," he says.
However, Skype will face much competition in this space.
Microsoft is increasingly moving into mobile software and its Windows Mobile operating system already supports VoIP.
The latest version of software developed by Symbian, 48 per cent owned by Nokia and currently the biggest supplier of operating systems to high-end mobiles, will do the same.
As a stand-alone mobile operator, Vodafone is seen as being more exposed to the inevitable pricing pressure than some rivals.
However, the UK-based operator accepts it is inevitable. "We have to morph from where we are now," said Arun Sarin, chief executive of Vodafone. "That [VoIP] is clearly a world around the corner . . . it is two to three years away."
T-Mobile, Deutsche Telekom's mobile operator, has an established WiFi business and believes mobile operators will be able to copewith the advent of VoIP, irrespective of the network technology.
"VoIP is not going tobe disruptive to this industry," says Hamid Akhavan, T-Mobile's chief technology officer. "The arbitrage potential is now closing as voice tariffs come down."
Frans van Houten, chief executive of Philips Semiconductor, which makes chips for mobile phones, says that, by running their own WiFi services, operators such as T-Mobile can sell features such as easily accessing files on a home computer with a mobile phone. "By bundling them together, they actually tie the user to their services."
Mobile operators are increasingly adopting the US model of offering "buckets" of minutes for voice and data access to their networks, and with upgrades to 3G networks promising better efficiency and capacity, some industry executives believe that mobile phone users will increasingly pay a flat monthly rate for network access, replicating the fixed-line broadband model.
At that point, the difference between voice and data traffic for mobile operators will disappear and increasingly voice traffic will be carried via a VoIP client over 3G networks.
Also, mobile operators believe that services suchas TV, music downloads,e-mail, and navigation, will develop as new revenue streams to offset the decline of voice revenues.
While Skype and other VoIP software alone might not disrupt mobile operators as much as some predict over the coming years, technological developments will mean competition for operators will intensify.
下一波：手机网络电话
最近在巴塞罗纳召开的2006年3GSM世界大会(3GSM World Congress) 手机会议上，手机网络电话成为人们关注的中心。会议公布的两项宣言，表明手机行业开始意识到，这种颠覆性的技术正与其不期而遇。
诺基亚(Nokia)首席执行官约玛?奥利拉(Jorma Ollila)最近表示：“互联网语音正逐渐具备移动性。”当日，这家全球最大的手机制造商发布了其第一款支持互联网协议语音(VoIP)、面向大众市场的手机。VoIP是一种新兴技术，互联网将取代传统的电话网络，为用户提供价格低廉的通话服务。
这款诺基亚6136也是“双模”：既可用于移动GSM网络，也能够连接一些小型无线网络――即人们所知道的WiFi。与移动电话网络不同，WiFi在非管制频段上运行。
作为诺基亚的对手，美国摩托罗拉公司(Motorola)也在开发一款类似的手机，而手机行业的其它制造商，以及诸如康柏(Compaq)、惠普(HP)等外围制造商，正在开发支持VoIP和WiFi的便携式设备。
Skype上周宣布，与和记黄埔(Hutchison Whampoa)旗下手机业务“3”建立合作关系，这是彰显数字时代电信业迅速变革的又一行动。
去年被Ebay收购的Skype，已成为VoIP颠覆潜能的代名词。只要每月支付宽带接入费，Skype电脑软件的7500万用户就可以免费互相交谈。
与传统电信运营商的收费相比，从Skype向固定线路电话的通话非常便宜，而打给手机的电话有时可能更昂贵一些。固定线路运营商承认，宽带普及只会增加按照通话时间收费的传统语音收入的压力。宽带采取固定收费模式，同时能够提供高质量的网络电话效果。
一位资深业内人士称，约有12家大型移动运营商正在“积极”寻求提供基于VoIP的服务。然而，Skype与和黄的交易表明，Skype正试图避免被人们仅仅当作是一种免费通话的方式，而希望成为一个增值服务的来源，这些服务包括向电脑和手机用户提供短信和联系人列表。
Skype首席执行官尼古拉斯?曾斯特罗姆(Niklas Zennstr?m)说，对于“3”而言，这是一种增值服务，将吸引新客户，并提高用户忠诚度。他表示：“我认为，不管怎么说，总体上语音电话的收入将会下降。”
然而，在这一领域Skype将面临各种竞争。
微软(Microsoft)正逐渐向移动软件业务迈进，其Windows Mobile操作系统已经支持VoIP。
Symbian公司所开发的最新版本的软件将起到同样作用。该公司48%的股份为诺基亚所有，Symbian目前是高端手机操作系统的最大供应商。
同时，与一些竞争对手相比，人们认为作为独立组网的移动运营商，沃达丰(Vodafone)无可避免地面临着更大的定价压力。
然而，这家总部位于英国的运营商承认（这种压力）是不可避免的。“我们不得不从目前所处的状况开始改变。”沃达丰首席执行官阿伦?萨林(Arun Sarin)表示，“这（VoIP）显然是一个放眼可及的前景……两三年后就会来临。”
德国电信(Deutsche Telekom)旗下的移动运营商T-Mobile已创建了WiFi业务，该公司认为，不管网络科技如何演变，移动运营商都将有能力应对VoIP的到来。
T-Mobile公司首席技术官哈米德?阿哈万(Hamid Akhavan)表示，“VoIP不会颠覆这个行业。随着语音话费的下降，套利潜力正在不断降低。”
制造手机芯片的飞利浦半导体(Philips Semiconductor)首席执行官万豪敦(Frans van Houten)表示，通过运营自己的WiFi服务，T-Mobile等运营商能够销售一些特色服务，比如使用手机轻易读取家用电脑上的文件。“通过这种捆绑，实际上是将用户和他们的服务联系在一起。”
移动运营商越来越多地采用美国模式，即提供语音通话时间和网络数据接入相结合的各种“套餐”，同时，随着向第三代(3G)网络的升级，有望提供更高的效率和更大的容量，一些行业高管们认为，手机用户将会越来越多地为网络接入支付固定月租费，这是固定线路宽带模式的翻版。
就这一点来说，对移动运营商而言，语音和数据流量之间的差别将消失，而越来越多的语音流量将通过3G网络的VoIP客户端进行传输。
此外，移动运营商们相信，电视、音乐下载、电邮和网上浏览等服务将成为新的收入流，从而抵消语音收入下滑的负面影响。
虽然在未来几年内，仅凭Skype和其它VoIP软件可能无法像一些人预计的那样，对移动运营商起到颠覆性作用，但技术的发展，将意味着运营商之间的竞争将会加剧。
