Chinese Surplus Fell in February On Import Surge
BEIJING -- China's trade surplus shrank unexpectedly in February, offering Beijing a temporary shield against growing protectionist pressure in the U.S. sparked by America's big trade deficit with China.
However, many economists cautioned that any relief for Beijing is likely to be short-lived. They attributed China's slimmer-than-expected surplus last month to surging imports, but they said demand may taper off during the year and that China is on track to record another huge trade surplus for 2006.
Customs figures released yesterday showed the February surplus shrank to $2.45 billion from $4.62 billion in the same month last year and from $9.49 billion in January. Exports in February grew 22.3% from a year earlier to $54.15 billion, while imports surged 29.6% to $51.7 billion.
China's trade surplus last year more than tripled from the previous year, to $102 billion. That growth has sparked criticism in the U.S. that Beijing's currency, the yuan, is undervalued, making its exports unfairly cheap. China's foreign-exchange and trade policies have become major issues in the U.S. as politicians in manufacturing states are put on the defensive over job losses.
Trade is expected to be high on the agenda when Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Washington in April. The U.S. Treasury is putting pressure on Beijing to take action on the exchange rate ahead of Mr. Hu's visit, and it has suggested it may be ready to label China a currency manipulator. U.S. lawmakers, meanwhile, have threatened legislation that would slap an across-the-board tariff of 27.5% on Chinese exports if Beijing fails to revalue its currency.
Economists said strong Chinese imports reflect robust domestic demand in an economy that grew 9.9% last year. For Chinese manufacturers, growing domestic sales mean they have less to export. Jonathan Anderson, chief Asia economist for UBS in Hong Kong, said Chinese exports of chemicals, metals and machinery are slowing.
But Stephen Green, chief China economist with Standard Chartered Bank, said he expects import growth to taper off during the year as domestic growth moderates. Exports are likely to continue to benefit from a healthy global economy, he said. The upshot, according to Mr. Green, is a 2006 trade surplus for China of $100 billion to $110 billion, roughly within range of last year's figure.
A surplus would contribute to China's foreign-exchange reserves, which are expected to pass the $1 trillion mark by the end of this year, overtaking Japan's and making them the largest in the world, economists said.
China's reserves also are bloated by large inflows of foreign direct investment. To maintain the exchange rate, China buys dollars as they come into the country in exchange for yuan. The Commerce Ministry reported yesterday that such inflows in the first two months of the year reached $8.59 billion, up 7.8% from the same period in 2005.
China's inflation remained under control during the period, with consumer prices moderating to 0.9% growth in February, compared with a 1.9% increase in January. Economists said the February number reflects seasonal factors. Last year, the Lunar New Year holiday period fell entirely in February, while this year it straddled January and February. Chinese consumers traditionally go on a spending spree around the holiday period, pushing up prices.
中国2月份贸易顺差大幅减少
中国2月份的贸易顺差出人意料地大幅减少，这使中国政府得以暂时抵挡美国因对中国巨大的贸易逆差而施加的重压。
不过，许多经济学家警告说中国政府由此获得的轻松可能只是暂时的。他们将2月份贸易顺差低于预期的原因归为进口的大幅增加，不过他们认为中国今年的进口需求可能会逐渐减弱，因此中国仍将在2006年再次创造巨大的贸易顺差。
中国海关周一公布的数据显示，中国2月份实现贸易顺差24.5亿美元，大大低于1月份的94.9亿美元，也低于2005年2月份的46.2亿美元。2月份出口额为541.5亿美元，较上年同期增长22.3%，进口额517亿美元，较上年同期增长29.6%，。
中国2005年的贸易顺差为1,020亿美元，比2004年增长了两倍以上。这引起了美国的不满，他们认为由于人民币被低估，中国的出口商品获得了不公平的价格优势。代表制造业利益的美国政治家们对美国的失业问题采取了守势，中国的外汇和贸易政策也已经成为美国最关注的问题。
人们认为贸易问题将成为今年4月中国主席胡锦涛美国之行的主要议题。美国财政部敦促中国在胡锦涛访美前对汇率问题采取行动，并暗示可能将中国列为汇率操纵国。同时美国国会议员们威胁说，如果中国拒绝重估人民币，美国将对中国的所有出口商品征收27.5%的关税。
经济学家表示，进口的扩大反映了中国强劲的国内需求。中国去年的经济增长率为9.9%。对于中国制造商来说，国内销售的增加意味著出口的减少。瑞银(UBS)亚太区首席经济学家乔纳森?安德森(Jonathan Anderson)说，中国化学品、金属和机械的出口正在放缓。
不过渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)驻上海经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)预计，随著中国国内需求增速减慢，进口增长将在今年逐渐放缓。他说，中国的出口可能继续从良好的全球经济形势中获益。王志浩认为，2006年中国的贸易顺差将在1,000亿至1,100亿美元之间，和上年的水平大体相当。
经济学家表示，贸易顺差将继续充实中国的外汇储备──今年年底中国的外汇储备将超过1万亿美元，从而取代日本成为世界上外汇储备最多的国家。
中国外汇储备的迅速增加还得益于外商直接投资的涌入。为了稳定汇率，中国政府会部分买进流入中国的美元。商务部(Commerce Ministry)周一公布，今年1－2月，实际外商直接投资金额为85.9亿美元，较上年同期增长7.8%。2月份的外商投资金额为40.4亿美元，较上年同期增长3.6%。
中国2月份的通货膨胀仍然得到了控制，2月份消费者价格指数较上年同期仅增长了0.9%，大大低于1月份1.9%的增速。经济学家表示，2月份的数字并不是通货紧缩的信号，而是季节因素的反映。中国去年的春节假期集中在2月份，而今年则横跨1-2月。中国消费者通常在春节期间疯狂购物，这抬高了从猪肉到冰箱等各种商品的价格，也扭曲了通货膨胀数据。
