Bernanke Is Expected To Follow Greenspan's Lead
The Federal Reserve's first meeting under Ben Bernanke is likely to look a lot like its last meeting under Alan Greenspan: another interest-rate increase with the door left open to more.
U.S. and foreign economic growth are better than Fed officials expected a few months ago, and inflation, though steady, is at the high end of many officials' preferred range. That should prod them to continue the string of quarter-percentage-point increases in the Fed's short-term-rate target that began in June 2004 under Mr. Greenspan.
Mr. Bernanke succeeded Mr. Greenspan as Fed chairman on Feb. 1 and presides over his first policy meeting on March 27-28. At that meeting, the Fed is likely to boost its short-term-rate target to 4.75% from 4.5%.
Markets are counting on an increase at the March meeting and also put high odds on a boost to 5% at the May 10 meeting. Fed officials appear comfortable with those expectations, but don't have strong convictions.
The statement released after the Jan. 31 meeting said that rising "resource utilization" and higher energy prices had the "potential" to fuel inflation, and that further rate increases "may" be needed. That language continues to reflect the view of some officials that a higher inflation rate is a bit more of a risk than weaker growth, and their next move could be another rate increase or a pause.
That suggests no big changes in the statement's interest-rate guidance are necessary. If there are changes, they are likely to underscore that future rate moves are dependent on new economic data while preserving the signal that inflation remains a concern.
"During the past 20 months...the [Fed] was able to clearly communicate...the path of policy," Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guynn said yesterday. "Our policy path over the coming period is somewhat less certain."
Mr. Bernanke probably will use some of the two-day meeting for discussions on internal procedures and communications policy. Possible discussion topics include more frequent release of Fed officials' forecasts, now released twice a year; longer statements; and more two-day meetings to debate the statement. (Typically, two of the Fed's eight meetings a year last two days; the others last one day.) No major changes are expected at the coming meeting. Discussion of an inflation target also appears to be some months away.
Fed officials had expected the economy to grow strongly in the first half, in part owing to post-hurricane reconstruction, and to slow its long-term trend in the second half as the housing market and related consumption slows. However, growth has been a bit stronger than expected, and the slowing in house-price appreciation has been only modest so far.
In a speech yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said unemployment at 4.8% raises the "question of whether the economy has already gone a bit beyond full employment." If so, with growth expected to exceed its long-run trend "in the first half of this year, the strain on resources could build further, intensifying inflationary pressures."
She added: "Additional inflationary pressures at this point would be particularly unwelcome, because inflation is now toward the upper end of my 'comfort zone.'"
Excluding food and energy, inflation was 1.8% in January by the Fed's preferred-price index, down from 2% last fall. But that is still near the top of the 1%-to-2% range Ms. Yellen, Mr. Bernanke and other officials call their "comfort zone." Many feel that should the economy overheat and inflation accelerate, it will be harder to reverse the process than it was a decade ago. Those factors weigh in favor of erring on the side of higher rates.
Still, Ms. Yellen said there are other indicators that suggest the economy still has slack in it, and she expects inflation "will remain well contained."
Mr. Guynn said the risks of weaker growth and higher inflation are "now close to being equal."
The Fed's "beige book," a roundup of anecdotal reports on business conditions throughout the Fed's 12 regional districts, showed the economy growing steadily, with scattered wage pressure but little sign of accelerating inflation at the retail level.
"Most districts characterized the pace of expansion as moderate or steady," the report said. Consumer and capital spending continued to grow. Housing activity "slowed from high levels." Businesses said input costs such as for energy and raw materials kept rising, but "prices at the retail level increased at only a moderate rate."
料贝南克将效仿格老再次加息
美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)上任后的首次会议即将召开，届时很可能延续(Alan Greenspan)的老路：再次上调利率，并为未来的加息埋下伏笔。
美国乃至美国以外的经济增长均好于Fed几个月前的预期，与此同时，尽管通货膨胀依旧稳定，但却正在迈向很多官员勾勒的合理区间的高端。这一切均有望促使Fed官员在本次会议上再度加息25个基点。自2004年6月起，格林斯潘一直保持著每次25个基点的加息步伐。
贝南克于2006年2月1日接过联邦储备委员会帅印，其上任后的首次会议将于3月27-28日召开。目前市场普遍预计Fed将把短期目标利率由4.5%上调至4.75%。2004年6月本轮加息周期启动时，联邦基金目标利率仅为1%。
在预计3月份有望加息的同时，市场还预计5月份利率可能被上调至5%。对此Fed官员泰然处之，不过也未发表任何立场鲜明的言论。
Fed在1月31日的会议纪要中表示，资源利用增加以及能源价格上升将带来潜在的通货膨胀压力，可能需要进一步收紧货币政策。几位官员表示，这正是他们的看法，通货膨胀率上升的风险可能比经济疲软更大，他们下一步可能再度加息，或者至少保持这一水平。
这显示短期内政策声明中有关利率走向的指导可能不会发生太大变化，但Fed官员强调，未来的行动要取决于新的经济数据。
贝南克可能会在两天的会议上抽时间讨论内部程序和沟通政策。有望讨论的议题包括：增加Fed对经济预期的公布次数，目前Fed每年公布两次；增加会后声明的长度；增加两天会议的次数，以更好地讨论会后声明。（通常情况下，Fed每年8次政策会议中有两次为期两天，其余为期一天。）本次会议预计不会发生重大政策转变，对通货膨胀目标的讨论似乎也是几个月之后的事情了。
贝南克的就任正值Fed政策日显微妙之际。两年来，Fed的首要任务一直是上调利率，将超低的利率水平上调至既不刺激也不抑制增长的“中性水平”。然而本周旧金山联邦储备银行行长珍妮特?耶林(Janet Yellen)表示，4.5%的利率已经非常接近中性区域的中间水平，因此未来的举动将取决于经济发展状况。
Fed官员曾预计，得益于飓风过后的重建，上半年经济将强劲增长，之后在住房市场和相关消费放缓的影响下逐渐放慢，重新回到长期发展轨道。但增长似乎比预期更为强劲，而且也没有什么确切的迹象显示房价上涨和消费增长的势头会真正放缓。Fed官员们也并不认为近来长期利率的走高会对经济前景造成打击。
他们指出，债券市场受到了日本和欧洲强劲增长的影响，两个经济体的增长将拉动美国出口。因此Fed官员可能更愿意冒把利率定得略高的风险，也不愿看到上调的幅度过小。此外，如果Fed基于对住房市场放缓的预期停止加息步伐，长期利率（包括抵押贷款利率在内）可能大幅回落，造成住房市场活跃势头不减。
以当前1.8%的通货膨胀率来看，该水平已接近包括贝南克在内很多官员认定的2%左右的合理区域的高端。很多官员表示，一旦经济过热，通货膨胀加剧，这种形势将比10年前更难控制。因此Fed宁可冒利率偏高的风险。
Fed黄皮书显示，经济增长稳定，某些行业面临著工资压力，但零售领域尚未显示通货膨胀加剧的迹象。黄皮书是12个地区联邦储备银行对当前经济形势分析的总括。
“多数地区经济增长温和或稳定，”报告称。消费支出及资本支出继续增长。“住宅建设和房地产活动从高点水平回落，不过商业市场总体较2005年底更为活跃。”企业表示能源和原材料等生产成本持续增长，但零售领域的价格仅温和增长。
