Opec plans fight to maintain oil price
The president of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries yesterday signalled the oil cartel would fight to keep oil prices from slipping much below today's level, hinting it would be guided by a new price band between the high $50s and the low $60s range.
Edmund Daukoru, also Nigeria's oil minister, said in Abuja: "Somewhere in the upper $50s or lower $60s (for benchmark US futures prices) looks about the level - if it's bouncing back and forth between the upper 50s and lower 60s we jog along." He added: "We agreed to confer if prices should misbehave in the sense of prices taking a big dip or approaching a super spike."
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday rose 18 cents to $61.95 a barrel, while on London's ICE, April futures for Brent crude oil rose 77 cents at $62.97 a barrel. Oil prices have more than doubled in the past five years and Opec's last official price band was between $22 and $28 a barrel. It was ignored as prices rose and was scrapped in early 2005.
Opec met in Vienna last week and decided to keep its output unchanged at about 28m barrels a day. The 11-member group's next regularly meeting is expected to be in Caracas in early June.
Opec has made record profits on the recent rise in oil prices, but it also knows that too high an oil price could erode demand by triggering economic downturns in its major consumers - the US, Europe and Asia - or through drivers looking for alternatives, from bioethanol to the bicycle or the car pool lane.
Economists have spent much time debating at which point high oil prices become a drag on the economy. But they have failed to come up with a convincing consensus.
But statements by Opec ministers last week and Mr Daukoru's hint yesterday of likely Opec concern if prices rose much above the low $60s indicate the cartel may have identified the point at which it believes high oil prices begin backfiring.
Indeed, the International Energy Agency, the consuming countries' watchdog, yesterday reduced its demand forecasts, pointing out that high oil prices had become a drag on demand.
It is not just Opec that benefits from a high oil price. Because international oil companies have had to venture into more and more expensive projects to secure new supplies, they are increasingly dependent on oil prices maintaining their gains. Meanwhile, the higher the oil price, the more economic incentive there is for business to develop alternative fuels that reduce dependence on oil or are less damaging to the environment.
Senator Dick Lugar, chairman of the US Senate foreign relations committee, suggested on Monday that there should be a $35 a barrel price floor for oil, to encourage companies to invest in alternative fuels.
欧佩克确定“60美元上下”为油价参考区间
石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称：欧佩克)主席、尼日利亚石油部长埃德蒙德?道克拉(Edmund Daukoru)昨日表示，该组织将努力控制油价，避免其较当前水平下滑太多，暗示油价将被控制在60美元上下的新参考价格区间内。
道克拉在尼日利亚首都阿布贾表示：“基准美国原油期货价格处于近60美元至60美元多一点之间比较合适――若价格在此区间内波动，我们可轻松维持。”他补充道：“我们同意，若油价大幅下挫或冲高，将商讨对策。”
昨日，纽约商交所(NYMEX)4月西德州中质原油价格上涨18美分，至每桶61.95美元；伦敦洲际交易所(ICE)4月布伦特原油期货价格上涨77美分，至每桶62.97美元。过去5年来，石油价格已飙升逾一倍。欧佩克上次制定的正式价格区间为每桶22美元至28美元。随着油价上涨，这一区间被人们忽视，并在2005年初被正式放弃。
拥有11个成员国的欧佩克上周在维也纳召开会议，决定将其石油日产量上限继续维持在2800万桶左右。该组织下一次例会将于6月初在加拉加斯召开。
近年油价上涨已令欧佩克获得创纪录的利润，但同时该组织也清楚，油价过高可能抑制石油需求，因为高油价可能导致其主要消费者（美国、欧洲和亚洲）陷入经济低迷，而驾车者也可能寻找其它替代途径，包括采用生物乙醇燃料、骑自行车或结伴乘车等。
的确，石油消费国监督机构国际能源机构(IEA)昨日下调全球石油需求预测，指出高油价已对石油需求造成拖累。
高油价的受益者并非仅是欧佩克。为了确保新的石油供应，国际石油企业不得不冒险投入越来越多成本高昂的项目，它们在维持收益方面越来越依赖高油价。
