'Value' Investors Turn Toward Oracle
A new crop of investors will be carefully watching Oracle Corp.'s financial results today, digging for clues about whether the software giant's stock has become cheap enough to buy.
Tom DeHudy, an analyst at Brandywine Asset Management in Wilmington, Del., is part of that group. Brandywine first bought Oracle shares last year, when Mr. DeHudy saw its price idling even though earnings had risen and margins had improved.
"The stock has gone nowhere for four years, and during that time, the company has continued to grow," says Mr. DeHudy, who doesn't rate Oracle's shares. His firm, which manages $26.3 billion, owned 85,200 Oracle shares at the end of last year, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.
Mr. DeHudy is a "value" investor, one who follows an investment philosophy of buying a stock that seems cheap compared with the company's earnings or other measures. Value investors typically haven't been part of Oracle's shareholder base. Instead, the giant software company mostly has attracted "growth" investors, who amass shares based on how quickly a company's profits and revenues are growing.
But, as a slowdown in Oracle's core database business has some growth investors griping, value investors aim to examine the company's fiscal third-quarter earnings report today to decide whether to bite.
Oracle closed a $10.3 billion acquisition of rival PeopleSoft Inc. more than a year ago. That means investors can begin to get a more accurate sense of Oracle's growth by comparing today's earnings report with the year-earlier numbers that first included PeopleSoft.
Meanwhile, some growth-oriented investors have dumped the stock. "I'm dissatisfied with the subpar organic growth" at Oracle's main database-software business, says Tony Ursillo, an analyst at Loomis Sayles & Co., which manages $74.5 billion. Mr. Ursillo sold about four million shares of Oracle late last year, after the company posted lackluster earnings for two consecutive quarters. Loomis Sayles has 589,200 shares left, according to SEC filings.
Oracle's changing shareholder base signals how the Redwood City, Calif., company has matured from go-go growth icon in the 1980s to a more-lumbering behemoth. Despite earnings and revenue increases in the past two years, Oracle's shares mostly have hovered between $12 and $14 as its traditional business of selling new licenses for its database software has cooled. In 4 p.m. composite trading Friday on the Nasdaq Stock Market, Oracle's shares were up 10 cents to $13.60, giving the company a market value of nearly $70 billion.
UBS analyst Heather Bellini, who has a "buy" rating on the stock, notes that Oracle trades at 16 times her estimate for 2006 earnings of 82 cents a share, considerably cheaper than the price/earnings ratio for the broader software market, at close to 26.
An Oracle spokeswoman declined to comment.
Oracle still attracts a greater proportion of growth investors than value investors, but as of the end of February, the percentage of growth funds tracked by Morningstar Inc. that own Oracle shares had declined to 15.7% from 17.7% a year ago. Meanwhile, the percentage of value funds with Oracle shares jumped to 9.1% from 6.3%.
Value investors are typically regarded as more patient investors, while growth investors are generally quicker to trade in and out of a stock. But some value investors can be more demanding than growth investors. Value investors say that, in the long run, they want Oracle to slow its acquisition binge and become more aggressive in offering dividends and buying back shares.
They will scour today's earnings to see if the company shows consistent growth and strong profit margins following a few lackluster quarters. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial project earnings, excluding certain items that are part of net income under generally accepted accounting principles, will increase to 18 cents a share from 16 cents a share in the year-earlier quarter. They also expect non-GAAP revenue of $3.53 billion, up from $3.09 billion a year earlier.
At the company's annual shareholder meeting in October, Chief Executive Larry Ellison said he believes stock buybacks and acquisitions are a good use of the company's cash. He also didn't rule out dividends, which could attract more value investors.
Lewis Kaufman, a portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management Inc., which he says has about $20 billion in assets including 6.2 million Oracle shares, thinks Oracle is undervalued because investors are focusing too much on one number -- growth in sales of new licenses in its core database business -- without looking at the company's broader management strengths. Mr. Kaufman, a value investor, notes that, besides PeopleSoft, Oracle also has bought Siebel Systems Inc. and Retek Inc. Oracle appears to have integrated the purchases with few hitches. "Oracle is a strong operator," he says.
甲骨文的“价值”发现
一批新的投资者将仔细关注甲骨文(Oracle Corp.)周一发布的业绩报告，从中寻找交易线索，看看这个软件巨头的股票是否已便宜得足以买进。
Brandywine Asset Management驻特拉华州的分析师德胡迪(Tom DeHudy)就是其中之一。Brandywine最初是去年买入甲骨文的股票，当时德胡迪预计该股将停滞不前，虽然公司收益增长，利润率获得改善。
“该股股价四年来毫无建树，但这期间公司的业务不断增长，”德胡迪表示。他没有对甲骨文的股票作出评级。根据递交给美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission, 简称SEC)的文件显示，管理著263亿美元资产的Brandywine截至去年底持有85,200股甲骨文股票。
德胡迪是一个价值型投资者，遵循的投资原则是买入以公司收益或其他指标衡量较为便宜的股票。价值型投资者并不是典型的甲骨文投资者。事实上，这家庞大的软件公司主要吸引的是成长型投资者，他们关注的是公司利润和收入增长的速度。
但随著甲骨文数据库业务的增长放缓，一些成长型投资者开始不满，而此时价值型投资者则开始把目光投向这家公司，他们将关注定于周一发布的第三财季收益报告，以决定是否出手买入该股。
一年多前，甲骨文完成了对竞争对手仁科(PeopleSoft Inc.) 103亿美元的收购。这意味著，从这次的业绩报告开始，投资者将能对甲骨文的业绩增长有更准确的把握，因为甲骨文从去年第三季度开始计入仁科的业绩。
与此同时，一些关注成长的投资者已抛出了这只股票。Loomis Sayles & Co.的分析师乌尔西洛(Tony Ursillo)表示，他对甲骨文主营数据库软件业务的有机增长弱于平均水平感到不满意。去年晚些时候，在甲骨文连续两个季度公布了疲软的业绩之后，乌尔西洛出售了大约400万股甲骨文股票。根据递交给SEC的文件，Loomis Sayles还持有589,200股甲骨文股票。Loomis Sayles的资产管理额为745亿美元。
甲骨文投资者构成的变化从一个侧面说明，这家公司正从上世纪80年代的高速增长企业蜕变成一家规模庞大的大型企业。虽然过去两年的收益和收入都有增长，但甲骨文的股价基本上徘徊在12美元至14美元之间，因为其传统的数据库软件授权业务已开始降温。纽约证交所上周五，甲骨文股价涨10美分，至13.60美元，市值近700亿美元。
对甲骨文股票评级为买进的瑞银(UBS)分析师贝利尼(Heather Bellini)预计甲骨文2006年每股收益82美分，她指出，目前该股股价是这一预期收益的16倍，显著低于软件类股接近26倍的平均预期本益比。
甲骨文发言人拒绝置评。
虽然成长型投资者在甲骨文的投资者群体中所占的比例仍高于价值型投资者，但截至2月底，在晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.)跟踪的成长型基金中，持有甲骨文股票的基金比例已降至15.7%，上年同期为17.7%。与此同时，价值型基金中持有甲骨文股票的比例从6.3%升至了9.1%。
价值型投资者通常更具耐心，而成长型投资者会迅速买入和卖出股票。但一些价值型投资者可能会比成长型投资提出更多的要求。价值型投资者称，他们希望长期内甲骨文能放缓收购步伐，而在派息和回购股票方面有更大举动。
他们还会仔细研究周一的收益报告，看甲骨文在连续几个季度业绩不佳后，是否有持续的增长和强劲的利润率。Thomson Financial调查的分析师给出的平均预期是，不包括某些项目，甲骨文的收益将从上年同期的每股16美分增至18美分；按非美国公认会计准则计算，收入为35.3亿美元，上年同期为30.9亿美元。
在去年10月公司的年度股东大会上，首席执行长埃里森(Larry Ellison)表示，他相信股票回购和收购是很好地利用了公司现金。他也没有排除派息的可能，而这可能引来更多的价值型投资者。
Thornburg Investment Management Inc.的投资组合经理考夫曼(Lewis Kaufman)称，该基金管理著约200亿美元的资产，其中包括620万股甲骨文股票。他认为，该股被低估了，原因在于投资者过于关注一个数据，即其核心的数据库业务新授权的销售增长，而忽视了该公司更大范围内的管理优势。作为一个价值型投资者，考夫曼表示，除了仁科，甲骨文还收购了Siebel Systems Inc.和Retek Inc.。甲骨文似乎很顺利地整合了收购业务。“甲骨文的经营管理能力很强，”他表示。
