Consumers in Japan and Europe May Help to Drive Global Growth
An important shift is taking place in the global economy: Japan and Europe, until recently among the biggest drags on world growth, may soon be playing crucial supporting roles.
In a trend that has caught many economists by surprise, companies and consumers in the euro zone and Japan, the world's second- and third-largest economies after the U.S., have started spending again -- or appear poised to do so -- for the first time in years.
The new climate has prompted moves by central bankers in both places to push up interest rates to curb inflation, a policy that could weigh on stock and bond prices everywhere by slowing the flow of cash around the globe. But the re-emergence of spending in those nations has implications far beyond financial markets.
For one thing, it means that the world might be less dependent on the American consumer, whose willingness to borrow and spend has been a primary driver of world growth for the past five years. If U.S. economic growth starts to taper off later this year, as some economists predict, Japanese and Europeans might help pick up the slack, a global rebalancing act that many had hoped for but few had thought probable. Growing local demand in emerging economies such as China and India could make a difference, too.
"I feel nervous as hell thinking it, because it's such a ridiculously optimistic thing to think," says Jim O'Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs in London. But, "if the U.S. was ever going to slow down, in many ways there couldn't be a better time for it."
Even if U.S. growth doesn't slow anytime soon, stronger growth abroad would be welcome news. It could help rein in the widening U.S. trade deficit by giving American companies more opportunity to sell their goods and services overseas.
"The businesspeople in both Japan and Europe are beginning to feel their oats," U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said last week in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. The trend, he said, is "good for us."
For the time being, the U.S. is on a roll, fueling growth in the rest of the world by buying much more stuff from abroad than it exports. The current-account deficit, a measure of how much the U.S. borrows from overseas to pay for foreign goods and services, widened to a record $805 billion in 2005 from $668 billion in 2004. That's a sign that the world's dependence on U.S. demand has been growing.
Some economists, though, expect the U.S. economy to slow in the second half of 2006, as stagnant or falling home prices make Americans feel less wealthy, and thus less willing to spend. Economists polled by the Journal expect annualized growth in U.S. gross domestic product to slow to 2.9% by the fourth quarter of this year from 4.6% in the current quarter. That could be a significant blow to the global economy: U.S. consumers buy about a fifth of everything the world produces.
Until recently, there were few candidates to step up and buy if the U.S. consumer stepped down. Japan has been growing for three years, but slowly and without much help from its consumers. Europe, too, offered little hope of buoyancy. Household consumption in Germany, for example, fell in each of the past four quarters.
But change has come quickly. In Japan, for example, fourth-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 5.4%, the highest rate among the Group of Seven industrialized nations. More significantly, Japanese consumers have regained some of their urge to buy. After barely budging for much of the past decade, Japan's household spending grew by an annualized 3.5% in the final quarter of 2005.
Anecdotal evidence suggests a society that is learning how to spend money again. New restaurants are opening in Tokyo's posh neighborhoods, as are high-end boutiques. Apple Computer Inc. sold 14 million iPod portable music devices in the last quarter of 2005 -- its best sales since introducing the iPod to Japan in 2001. Coach Inc., a maker of upscale handbags, expects its Japanese sales to jump 20% to about $410 million for the fiscal year ending in June.
The picture is less clear in Europe. In France and Spain, robust household spending is fueling an economic upturn. But in Germany, Europe's largest economy, official data still show consumers in the doldrums. Many economists hope Germans will feel better about opening their pocketbooks if -- as some surveys suggest -- employers start taking on more workers.
The widely followed Ifo survey, for example, shows German business confidence at levels not seen since the reunification boom of 1991. And in the most recent Manpower survey of hiring expectations, German businesses said they expect to increase their work forces by 5% in the second quarter, reversing an expected decline of 4% in the current quarter.
U.S. multinational companies see signs that German industry is tooling up to produce for local consumers. Nordson Corp., which makes systems that apply glue and paint to packaging for the kinds of food and other products that go to local markets, says that European orders in December through February were up 12% from a year earlier, largely due to German demand. Nordson, based in Westlake, Ohio, does two-thirds of its manufacturing in the U.S., so more foreign demand means more exports.
"Talking to other industrial companies, they're having a similar experience," says Peter Hellman, president and chief operating officer at Nordson.
To be sure, even Japan and Europe won't be able to compensate if U.S. consumer demand falls sharply. And both face deeper problems that will keep their economies from growing very fast in the long run. They have aging populations and shrinking labor forces. Germany also faces another hurdle: Many of its manufacturers are relocating to cheaper locales in Central and Eastern Europe.
Still, if Japanese and European consumers start buying more over the next year, it could help curb the gaping U.S. current-account deficit, which many economists have cited as the most glaring sign of a global economic imbalance. "We will be getting worse more slowly, or possibly improving a little bit," says Michael Mussa, senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington.
Further down the road, emerging economies could play a bigger role in correcting the world's imbalances. Already, people and companies in the largest emerging economies, most of which have grown mainly by selling to the rest of the world, are making their own contributions to global demand. Data from the International Monetary Fund suggest that in 2005, China, India, Brazil and Russia together contributed about 30% of total growth in global demand, which includes consumer, corporate and government spending. That's more than double the level in 2000.
Investment has been the main driver of China's consumption growth. Massive government spending on everything from highways to sports stadiums for the 2008 Olympics has led to surging demand for imports. And China's emergence as a global center for product assembly has driven demand for high-tech parts from around the world. As the Chinese economy advances, however, consumers are playing a larger role, increasing their spending at an annualized rate of around 12%.
The rapid emergence of a middle class in cities like Shanghai and Beijing is attracting many of the world's top brands, as well as retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Carrefour SA and Ikea. Still, Beijing isn't satisfied. It hopes consumer spending will expand much faster, replacing investment and exports as a leading engine of growth. Such a shift will take time, partly because a lack of health and welfare measures encourages the Chinese to save more and spend less. Chinese savings are among the highest in the world, at more than 40% of GDP.
India, too, is experiencing a consumer boom, driven by low interest rates, a rocketing stock market and a growing number of young urbanites employed in technology, one of the hottest corners of the global economy. Over the past year in India, sales of air conditioners and DVD players have risen 25%, washing machines 18% and microwaves 27%, according to a recent survey by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.
The emerging economies' growth is still coming from a relatively low base. China must expand about seven times as fast as the European Union to make the same dollar contribution to global demand growth. But the gap is closing -- a fact not lost on businesses in the U.S.
"In the very near term, the strength in Europe is more important," says Paul Meister, vice chairman of Fisher Scientific International Inc., Hampton, N.H., which has recently seen stronger demand for everything from beakers to high-precision scales as European firms ramp up research spending. "But in the medium term, strength in Asia [outside Japan] is more important, particularly in China and India."
日本欧洲或成全球增长新动力
全球经济格局正在发生重大变化：日本和欧洲直到不久前还是拖累世界经济增长最主要的经济体，但它们或许很快就会成为支撑增长的关键力量。
在经济规模仅次于美国的全球第二和第三大经济体──欧洲和日本，企业和消费者数年来首次开始出现消费上升的趋势或者苗头，这让许多经济学家深感意外。
这种新形势促使两地的中央银行分别决定上调利率以抑制通货膨胀，而此举将使全球的现金流动放缓，从而对股票和债券价格产生影响。但两地开支的复苏所产生的影响绝不仅限于金融市场。
首先，这种趋势意味著世界经济将降低对美国消费者的依赖。过去5年来，美国消费者踊跃借贷和开支一直是世界经济增长的主要推动力。现在，即使美国经济增长像一些经济学家预测的那样开始降温，欧洲和日本的消费者或许也能及时填补上来。这样一种实现新平衡的局面曾是许多人所希望的，但很少有人认为有可能实现。与此同时，中国和印度等新兴市场国内需求的增长也会带来变化。
高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)驻伦敦首席经济学家吉姆?奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)说，他感觉这么想会让人非常不安，这听起来过于乐观了。但是他说，如果美国经济真地放缓，那么从许多方面来说，真能这样是再好不过了。
即使美国经济不致很快减速，海外的强劲增长对美国也是个好消息。它将使美国企业增加向海外提供商品和服务的机会，从而有助于遏制美国贸易逆差日益扩大的局面。
美国财长斯诺(John Snow)上周在接受《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)采访时说，日本和欧洲的企业家们开始振奋起来，他说，这种趋势对我们也是好消息。
美国经济目前仍呈持续的旺盛势头，其进口远大于出口，这也给世界其他地区的经济增长注入了动力。2005年，美国的经常项目赤字上升到创纪录的8,050亿美元，2004年时这一数字是6,680亿美元。这些数字表明，全球对美国需求的依赖在加大。从经常项目赤字可以衡量美国为支付进口商品和服务所借国外资金规模。
不过，一些经济学家预计，2006年下半年美国经济将放缓，因为随著住房价格走势开始停滞甚至下滑，美国人会感觉自己的财富水平在下降，他们的消费意愿会因此而减弱。
接受本报调查的经济学家预计到今年第四季度，美国国内生产总值(GDP)增幅折合成年率将从本季度的4.6%降到2.9%。这对全球经济可能会是一个重大打击，因为美国消费者的购买额占全球生产值的五分之一左右。
至少从不久前的情况看，如果美国消费者收紧钱袋，很少有人能替代他们慷慨解囊。日本经济三年来的确在复苏，但其复苏速度很慢，而且其中来自消费者的贡献也不是很大。同样，欧洲也没有显示出很强劲的增长势头。比如，过去4个季度里德国的家庭消费每况愈下。
但这种状况后来迅速发生了变化。如日本第四季度的GDP增幅折合成年率就达到了5.4%，是七大工业国中增速最快的一个。更重要的是，日本人的消费意愿在增强。日本的家庭消费在过去十年来几乎没有变化的情况下，2005年最后一个季度折合成年率的升幅达到了3.5%。
从许多细节也可以看出日本人正在重新开始学习如何花钱。在东京的时尚地区不断有新餐馆和高端精品店开张。2005年第四季度，苹果电脑(Apple Computer)出品的iPod音乐播放器在日本卖出了1,400万只，这是自iPod 2001年进入日本市场以来销售最好的一年。生产高档手包的Coach Inc.预计截至6月的本财政年度，其在日本的销售额有望增长20%，达到4.1亿美元左右。
欧洲的形势不如日本这么明朗。法国和西班牙的确出现了家庭消费带动经济回升的局面，但欧洲最大的经济体德国的官方数据则显示消费者仍底气不足。许多经济学家希望，如果德国雇主开始像一些调查结果显示的那样开始雇佣更多工人，那么德国人也许会更乐意掏腰包。
据被广泛引用的德国Ifo调查显示，德国目前的商业景气水平是自1991年两德统一后的繁荣时期以来所从未有过的。在近期有关招聘前景的Manpower调查中，企业主们预计第二季度他们将增加5%的员工，而对本季度的预期是减少4%的员工。
美国跨国公司也看到了德国企业正在加大马力，生产面向国内消费者的产品。Nordson Corp.表示，去年12月至今年2月，它收到的欧洲企业的订单较上年同期增加了12%，其中增加的部分主要来自德国。Nordson是一家食品包装设备生产商。该公司有三分之二的产品在美国生产，因此需求上升意味著出口的增加。
Nordson总裁兼首席营运长彼得?海尔曼(Peter Hellman)说，在与同行其他公司的交谈中发现，他们的情况也差不多。
可以肯定，如果美国消费需求大幅放缓，日本和欧洲的消费者并不能完全填补空白。而且，这两个地区如想使经济保持长期快速发展，也还都面临更深层次的问题，比如人口老龄化加剧以及劳动力规模萎缩等等。德国更多了一个问题，那就是许多制造商正在向成本较低的中、东欧地区迁移。
尽管如此，如果未来一年日本和欧洲消费者的消费规模继续扩大，那将有助于遏制美国经常项目赤字的上升势头。
许多经济学家认为，美国的巨额赤字是全球经济失衡最显著的一个表征。华盛顿国际经济学会(Institute for International Economics)高级研究员麦克尔?穆萨(Michael Mussa)说，美国的经常项目赤字恶化的速度将进一步放缓，甚至也可能有些许好转。
展望未来，新兴市场国家在纠正全球经济失衡方面将扮演越来越重要的角色。在最大的一些以出口经济为主的新兴市场国家，企业和消费者为满足全球需求已做出了自己的贡献。
据国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的数据显示，中国、印度、巴西和俄罗斯的增长合计占全球需求（包括消费需求、企业需求和政府开支）总增长的30%。这个比例较2000年的水平上升一倍还多。
投资一直是中国消费增长的主要推进器。政府在从高速公路、到为2008年奥运会兴建的体育场馆等各种基础设施方面的巨大开支推动著进口需求急剧飙升。同时，中国作为全球制造业、特别是组装业中心的日益崛起，推动了中国对高科技零部件的需求。不过，随著中国经济的发展，消费者在经济生活中正扮演越来越重要的角色，中国人消费开支的增幅折合年率达到了12%。
北京、上海等大城市里中产阶级的迅速崛起吸引了许多世界品牌进入中国市场，同时到来的还有沃尔玛(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)、家乐福(Carrefour SA)、宜家(Ikea)等国际零售巨头。不过，北京并不满足，它希望国内消费能超过投资和出口，成为经济增长的头号生力军。但这样的转变需要时间，在一定程度上说，医疗保健和福利保障制度匮乏使中国人的储蓄倾向非常强，消费欲望受到抑制。中国人的储蓄率是世界之最，目前储蓄存款占到国内生产总值的40%。
印度也正呈现出消费旺盛的景象，这主要是受低利率、股市飙升和从事科技工作的城市年轻人越来越多等因素的推动。据印度工商业组织Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry最近的一项调查显示，去年一年，印度空调、DVD播放机的销售增长了25%，洗衣机和微波炉销售量分别增长了18%和27%。
新兴经济体增长显著的部分原因还在于它们的比照基数较低。以绝对金额计算，中国对全球消费增长的贡献要想达到欧盟国家的水平，其需求增幅就必须要达到欧盟国家的7倍才行。不过差距正在缩小，美国企业也注意到了这一点。
Fisher Scientific International Inc.副总裁保罗?梅斯特(Paul Meister)说，近期来说，欧洲的实力更重要。近来，随著欧洲企业加大研发开支，欧洲市场从断路器到高精度度量衡等各种物品的需求都在显著上升。但就中期而言，亚洲（不含日本）的经济实力更重要，特别是中国和印度。
