Senators, on Trip to Beijing, Press Leaders on Yuan
BEIJING -- A group of U.S. senators ended their first day of talks in Beijing saying Chinese leaders need to understand U.S. determination to see a stronger Chinese currency. But the lawmakers left unclear exactly what China must do to avert sweeping U.S. tariff legislation.
Senators Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat; Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican; and Tom Coburn, an Oklahoma Republican, held their first day of discussions in Beijing Tuesday, meeting with China's foreign minister and the deputy head of its legislature. Messrs. Schumer and Graham have proposed a bill that would impose 27.5% tariffs on all Chinese imports unless Beijing sharply revalues its currency, which the lawmakers allege is unfairly undervalued. A Senate vote on the bill is scheduled for March 31.
The senators told reporters later Tuesday that their aim is to impress on Chinese leaders the seriousness of a backlash in the U.S. against trade with China.
"Our goal is to let the Chinese government realize that the politics of this issue is about to get out of hand," Mr. Graham said. He said the senators are stressing to leaders in Beijing that "if you think the relations between our two countries are good, you're misreading the tea leaves back home [in the U.S.]. They're not good, and they're getting worse."
The Treasury Department has hinted it might label China a "currency manipulator" in a coming report, which could further exacerbate bilateral strains.
Under mounting pressure from the U.S., China in July raised the yuan's value by 2.1% against the dollar and unpegged its exchange rate from the U.S. currency. The currency has appreciated little since then, even with a relative surge in recent days. The yuan closed slightly weaker Tuesday at 8.0277 yuan to the dollar, about 3% stronger than its pre-revaluation level in July, after hitting highs in recent sessions.
Some economists predict the Chinese currency could breach the psychologically important eight yuan to the dollar ahead of a planned visit to Washington by Chinese President Hu Jintao next month. Still, that level of appreciation is far less than the amount by which U.S. critics say the Chinese currency is undervalued. Messrs. Schumer and Graham say the undervalued yuan makes Chinese goods cheaper in the U.S. and exacerbates a huge U.S. trade deficit with China, which widened 24% last year to $201.63 billion, according to U.S. data.
All three senators said they believe the tariff bill would pass both houses of Congress, with enough votes to overcome any attempt by President Bush to veto it.
The senators left open the possibility that their trip could persuade them to push back the vote on the Schumer-Graham bill or even shelve it. But it was unclear what exactly they need to hear for that to happen. "There are no magic words," Mr. Schumer said. "We have to get the feeling that they are on a path, in a reasonable period of time, to stop manipulating the currency, to let it float freely."
The senators are to meet with other senior Chinese officials, including the central bank chief and the commerce minister, Wednesday and Thursday.
The prospect that the Schumer-Graham bill, which has long been discussed, might pass has sparked concern among some U.S. economists and businesspeople. Stephen Roach, chief economist for U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley, said he believes tariffs of the sort the senators are proposing would be a "mistake" that could prompt Beijing to cut back on purchases of U.S. Treasurys, leading to a weaker dollar and higher interest rates.
"At a time when the U.S. is more dependent on foreign capital than ever before, to impose tariffs not just on a major provider of goods, but a major lender of capital, I think would be close to economic suicide," said Mr. Roach, who also is in Beijing for a conference with Chinese officials and global executives.
访华参议员在汇率和贸易问题上继续施压
访问中国的几位美国参议员结束了首日的会谈，他们表示，中国领导人需要了解美国希望人民币汇率走强的决心。不过他们并未明确阐述中国应该怎样做才能避免美国加征惩罚性关税的报复行为。
美国民主党参议员查尔斯?舒默(Charles Schumer)、共和党参议员林赛?格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)和汤姆?科伯恩(Tom Coburn)周二在北京进行了第一天的磋商，会见了中国的外交部长和中国人大的官员。舒默和格雷厄姆认为人民币汇率被人为低估，因而提出了一项法案，要求中国政府大幅上调人民币汇率，否则就将对从中国进口的所有产品加征27.5%的关税。参议院定于3月31日对该法案进行投票。
这几位参议员在周二晚间向记者表示，他们的目的是让中国领导人认识到美国在对华贸易上采取强硬立场的严重性。
格雷厄姆说，我们的目的是让中国政府切身感受到这个问题正在失去控制。他说，他们向北京方面表示，如果中国认为两国关系很好，那他们的想法就错了；美中贸易状况并不好，而且还在变得更糟。
美国财政部(Treasury Department)曾暗示，可能会在即将出台的报告中将中国定为汇率操纵国。如果这样的话，双边的紧张关系将会进一步加剧。
面对美国方面日益沉重的压力，中国在去年7月份将人民币兑美元汇率上调2.1%，并不再单一钉住美元汇率。此后人民币汇率略有上升，近几日的涨幅有所扩大。在前几日创出高点后，周二美元兑人民币收于8.0277元，比7月份升值前的水平上涨了约3%。
部分经济学家预计，在中国国家主席胡锦涛下月访美前，人民币兑美元的汇率可能会突破8元这一重要的心理关口。不过，这一升值幅度仍远远低于美国批评人士指出的人民币低估的程度。舒默和格雷厄姆认为称，人民币低估使中国商品在美国的售价更低，加大了美国同中国的贸易逆差。根据美国方面的统计，中美贸易逆差2005年增长了24%，达到2016.3亿美元。
三位参议员都表示，他们相信加征关税的法案会在美国参众两院获得通过，并能获得足够的票数击败总统布什(George W. Bush)否决该法案的努力。
他们并没有排除通过此行推迟表决甚至搁置舒默-格雷厄姆法案的可能性。但还不清楚他们的条件是什么。格雷厄姆说，空谈并不能起到神奇的效果，我们必须感受到他们正在采取行动，在合理的时间内停止操纵汇率，让人民币自由浮动。
这三位参议员还将在周三和周四会见中国其他高级官员，其中包括中国央行行长及商务部部长。
舒默-格雷厄姆法案可能获得通过的前景引起了美国经济学家和商界人士的担忧。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席经济学家史蒂芬?罗奇(Stephen Roach)说，他认为，这类加征关税的提案是个“错误”，促使中国减少购买美国国债的数量，导致美元走软，利率上升。
罗奇说，在美国前所未有地依赖海外资本的情况下，对不仅是主要商品供应国、而且还是主要资本借贷国的中国征收特别关税，我认为这种做法近乎于“经济自杀”。罗奇目前正在北京出席会议，与中国官员和全球管理人员会晤。
