中国股市的投资之道

雷曼兄弟被评为2003年全美最佳研究团队

Institutional Investor Survey Finds Lehman On Top


Lehman headed up the magazine's "2003 All-America Research Team."

The firm, which ranked second last year, vaulted over last year's champ, Citigroup Inc.'s (C) Smith Barney, which placed fourth this year. Also in the top five were Morgan Stanley (MWD), which was second, Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) which took third, and UBS AG (UBS) which was fifth.

Rounding out the top 10 were Credit Suisse Group's (CSR) Credit Suisse First Boston and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), tied for sixth, Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), tied for eighth, and Deutsche Bank AG (DB) at tenth.

Institutional Investor has been conducting surveys of money managers' favorite sell-side equity analysts since 1998. The survey tapped more than 3,700 individuals for feedback.
雷曼兄弟被评为2003年全美最佳研究团队

雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.，LEH)在《机构投资者》(Institutional Investor)对资金管理机构进行调查的调查结果中排名第一。雷曼兄弟被该杂志评为2003年全美最佳研究团队。

去年排名第二的雷曼兄弟击败了去年的冠军--花旗集团(Citigroup Inc., C)旗下的美邦(Smith Barney)，而荣升榜首。美邦今年屈居第四。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley, MWD)、美林公司Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., MER)及瑞银(UBS AG, UBS)也跻身前5甲，分别排在第二、第三、第五位。

跻身前10名的公司包括：瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse Group, CSR)旗下的瑞士信贷第一波士顿(CSFB)，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc., GS)并列第六；贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns Cos., BSC)和摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., JPM)并居第八；德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG, DB)位居第十。

《机构投资者》自1998年以来一直负责对资金经理的最佳卖方股票分析机构进行追踪调查。这项调查对3,700多位个人受访者展开。

基金经理冲刺的时刻到了


Showtime for Money Managers

EVERYONE'S SEEN ONE OF THESE down-to-the-wire games before, but that doesn't make it any less suspenseful. It's the start of the fourth quarter and the team that's behind is operating with growing urgency as time winds down, looking for the quick score even if it leads to lasting fatigue or injury that could undermine future performance.

The trailing team, in this case, is made up of professional investors -- managers of both mutual funds and hedge funds -- who are underperforming the major indexes and their own private ambitions. Large-cap core stock funds, directly comparable to the Standard & Poor's 500, are lagging S&P index funds by about one percentage point this year, on average. That means it's time for the "two-minute offense."

In market terms, this involves buying aggressively whenever the news flow offers an opening. Last week, there were enough of these opportunities to power the major indexes near or to 52-week highs. The Dow Jones Industrials added 102 points, or 1.1%, to reach 9674. The S&P 500 climbed by 8 points, or 0.8%, to 1038. The Nasdaq Composite barreled ahead by 24, or 1.3%, to 1915.

For those players keying on signs that the economic revival is progressing the way it's drawn up in the bulls' play book, there were some brisk September chain-store sales results and a dip in weekly unemployment claims.

The latter number propelled a fierce morning rally Thursday, but stocks then surrendered the majority of the intra-day upside by the close. It was the second day in a week in which a positive read on the labor market triggered reflexive, willful buying that wasn't sustained for a full session. The prior instance came after the monthly payroll figures a week ago Friday.

And for traders craving ever-gathering momentum in the technology field, Yahoo's earnings and its raised projection of revenue in future quarters was just the thing. The stock blew to a new 12-month high by rising 10%, to 43.16.

Fair warning of what might happen during this high-stakes earnings season for any company that fails to over-deliver and then go one better by over-promising: General Electric slid 1.50, to 29.32, with most of the selling coming Friday after GE hit forecasts of quarterly earnings on the nose. But the company pulled down the upper end of its projected range for fourth-quarter results, and on its conference call sounded merely cautiously optimistic about next year.
The bright-side crowd was chattering that the market had acquitted itself remarkably well Friday by holding almost perfectly flat, ably shouldering the weight of a sagging GE. And it's true that the gait and bearing of the indexes haven't shown too many obvious signs of weakening yet.

The eagerness of fast-moving investors to head for any gap that seems to allow for an upside trade was observable, too, in the "story-driven" stock moves spurred by hoped-for catalysts.

Countrywide Financial climbed 13.16, to 94, with most of that ground covered Friday after a Sanford C. Bernstein analyst mentioned that not only was its mortgage business holding up well, but the company could make a nifty, accretive acquisition target for a commercial bank. Countrywide later released a 2004 guidance update that put expected earnings at $15 a share, the top of the prior $13-15 range.

Not quite as dramatic but also intriguing was the heavy volume Friday in Eastman Kodak shares, which rose 4.2% on the week, to 22.35. An activist investment firm, Providence Capital, announced that it would convene a meeting of shareholders to discuss the "challenging" turnaround plan Kodak has announced, and to consider "alternative strategies to maximize shareholder value." The meeting is slated for Oct. 22.

Wall Street's eagerness to believe, the sentiment that's sending all the Buy tickets flying, has for the moment kept attention away from some looming risks to the big picture. Last week, for instance, crude oil climbed toward $32 per barrel and natural gas made a similar spurt.

And the dollar's renewed deterioration versus the yen and euro is for now being waved away. The typical comment, fast becoming cliche, is that a lower dollar is okay as long as the decline is "orderly." The danger is that the currency markets don't oblige and instead engage in some disorderly conduct.

Upward creep in energy costs and the potential that the dollar could spook foreign capital haven't visibly effected the game on the equity field, however. Not just yet.

IF HAPPINESS IS ENHANCED by reminders of past misery, then stock investors must be nearly giddy after last week's one-year anniversary of the market's most recent major low.

A recitation of the market's progress since the selling climax and violent rebound of Oct. 9 and 10, 2002, might inspire investors to join in on Canadian Thanksgiving this Monday to offer gratitude for one year's tidings. Though stocks, of course, sagged back toward those lows in the run-up to the Iraq war in March, the October 2002 levels are viewed as the launch platform for the 33% gains in both the Dow and S&P 500, not to mention the 71% vault in the Nasdaq.

Whether the surge is characterized as a powerful rally in a long-unfolding bear market, or the start of a new bull market or simply a spasm of buying prodded by lots of easy money and eager hopes, there are some salient differences in the backdrop between now and then. (See table.)

A year ago, corporate earnings forecasts were collapsing as the third straight second-half business recovery refused to materialize. The WorldCom name was more in the headlines than in the history books. Risk aversion reigned and the securities of perhaps hundreds of companies were priced for bankruptcy. Quite a buying opportunity it was.

There has undeniably been substantive, fundamental improvement since then. Fears of recession relapse and deflation have receded. The earnings outlook is not only brighter today, but it also appears clearer. That is, forecasts have not had to be slashed for the third and fourth quarters, and indeed during the September quarter estimates even ticked higher.

The question is whether there has been enough progress in the needed areas to support such rapidly heightened stock prices and valuations, with the S&P trading at 17.5 times the expected earnings over the next 12 months.

That multiple is on the high end of the long-term range -- normal, in the area of fair value, at best. Standard stock-versus-bond valuation schemes -- which are badly flawed and misleading in their simplest forms -- might be saying stocks are a bit undervalued here, but history wouldn't agree.

For this reason, virtually no bullish pronouncements about the market rely on the argument that stocks are broadly cheap. Rather, the seemingly full valuation is frequently justified or explained away by looking at the market from various sidelong angles that purport to show there's more to the indexes' advance.

A common example is the You-Ain't-Seen-Nothing-Yet theory, which says that corporate profits will surprise Wall Street with their strength next year. A necessary component of this belief is that CEOs and analysts, burned for being too sanguine for three years, are now low-balling their '04 earnings projections. That amounts to a bet that the 13% earnings growth now expected will be bested as a result of operating leverage or brisker economic growth or both.

Of course, that's always possible; similar things have occurred in other cycles. But it's worth noting that published forecasts of profit margins are already rather optimistic, as frequently noted by the spoilsports. And one reason margins are as impressive as they are, of course, is that companies aren't hiring or making ambitious capital investments -- and that can't last forever.
The ISI Group last week created a list of nine things that will likely need to be true in October 2004 for the economy to continue surprising to the upside and for stocks to make more headway. First on the list: "Employment, capital spending and inventories will all have to be adding to growth."

Another approach is to carve out the most aggressively priced pieces of the market to expose how reasonable the other stuff looks. Technology now amounts to more than 18% of the S&P 500 market value but is expected to produce just under 12% of 2004 S&P earnings, according to Citigroup. Excising tech neatly reveals the rest of the index trading below 16 times earnings, a more digestible number that might indicate the better areas to forage for buying ideas.

Which is not to say that market discourse lacks for voices willing to bless those racy tech valuations. A common line about tech and other cyclical companies is that high multiples on depressed earnings (such as those of this year) are actually buying opportunities, and that these stocks only look cheap when earnings are peaking and about to tumble.

Consider Merrill Lynch's placement of semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials on its favorite-stock list Friday. After reciting the company's impressive order trends, strong market position and armored balance sheet, analyst Brett Hodess sets a 27.50 price target on a stock that's doubled to about 21 in the last year. He arrives at the target by placing a 25 multiple on "peak" forecast earnings of $1.10 a share, penciled in for 2005. What happened to those low multiples on peak earnings?

Such is the quirky math and skewed psychology in some pockets of tech that the Wall Street pros themselves occasionally admit being thrown off by it.

Deutsche Bank's Ben Lynch on Friday upgradedIntel to a Buy with a report titled, "If You've Gotta Own One." In it, he wrote: "While the implied 29-times (calendar year 2004) earnings P/E puts Intel close to former pre-bubble peak levels (of 30-times), the market's sensitivity to valuation is low currently and the stock is cheap versus large-cap semiconductor peers."

There is a kind of don't-fight-the-tape logic there. But any Intel investors who follow it should hope that they'll somehow be able to guess exactly when the market's sensitivity to near-bubble valuations is about to become a bit more acute.
Not every bullish observer indulges in such semantic exertions to rationalize today's share prices. Some upbeat, technically oriented observers, for example, don't worry over valuation, which after all is a weak predictor of short-term market direction.

They simply see a market exhibiting the impressive statistical earmarks of strong buying momentum and breadth. Chronicling past instances that fit the look and feel of this rally, they suggest that a bit more upside can be expected, with 5-10% seeming like the most common guess in this crowd. After that, they make no promises.

FOR THOSE INVESTORS NOT EAGER to pay any price for growth, an alternate course is to seek out sectors that should enjoy some benefit from economic quickening but whose stocks have lagged the market.

Casual-restaurant operators seem to fit this mold. As a group they trade at a discount to the overall market and to their own historical levels, despite expected growth rates that have held up reasonably well. Long-term trends toward more meals away from home remain intact. And the stocks have fallen well behind other groups over the last six months, though they have held up rather well overall in recent years.

David Sowerby, chief market analyst at money manager Loomis Sayles, is betting on stocks like Brinker International, Steak 'N Shake and others, extolling their moderate valuations, good free cash flow and a likely lift from any economic improvement.

Of course, not many stocks in the present environment ever look inexpensive without there being legitimate fundamental concerns. Food costs and other expenses are rising, without the chains enjoying very much pricing flexibility.

Lehman Brothers analyst Mitchell Speiser recently downgraded Brinker (parent of Chili's, Macaroni Grill and On the Border) at close to the current price above 33, citing these concerns.

Brinker's stock already seems to incorporate at least some of those fears. And its restaurants are evidently performing pretty well.

In Smith Barney analyst Mark Kalinowski's latest monthly survey of wait times for tables at chain restaurants, Brinker's Macaroni Grill and On the Border were two of only three brands to show longer waits from a year earlier. Overall, wait times in September dropped 22%, with Darden Restaurants' Olive Garden, Red Lobster and others losing even more. That points to somewhat better relative same-store sales at Brinker.

Brinker currently fetches around 14 times calendar 2004 projected earnings, and by Kalinowski's estimate the stock could hit 40 without even achieving a market multiple.

It's an imperfect idea, given unknowns about cost creep and customer traffic, but far less imperfect than much of what the market has to offer.
基金经理冲刺的时刻到了


谁都见识过这种最后的挣扎，但仍不免要为其捏一把汗。随著第四季度的来临，今年的时日已所剩无几，那些落后于人的公司越来越迫切地感到，必须迅速改善业绩，即使这意味著以牺牲未来的业绩为代价。

本文所谈的业绩不佳者是包括共同基金和对冲基金管理人在内的专业投资者，他们的投资业绩落后于主要股指的表现，也落后于他们自己的个人野心。以与标准普尔500指数具直接可比性的大型股核心股票基金为例，其今年的表现平均落后于标准普尔指数基金约1个百分点。这意味著，这类基金最后冲刺的时刻到了。

就具体的市场操作而言，一旦出现有利的消息面因素，就要在市场上大举买进。上周，乐观的经济消息足以推动主要股指接近或达到52周高点。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上周累计上涨了102点，达到9674点，涨幅1.1%。标准普尔500指数上涨了8点，达到1038点，涨幅0.8%。那斯达克综合指数上涨了24点至1915点，涨幅1.3%。

对那些乐见经济复苏正按理想轨道稳步前进的投资者而言，良好的9月份连锁店销售数字和每周首次申请失业救济人数的下降正中他们下怀。

虽然后一个数据推动股市在周四前市大幅上涨，但多数涨幅在当日收盘时已被抹去。这已是一周内第二次出现这种情况：良好的就业市场数据推动股市上涨，但股指在当日的表现却未能做到善始善终。此前一周的周五，月度就业数据的公布也引发了类似的股市现象。 对于那些渴望著科技股重振旗鼓的投资来说，雅虎(Yahoo's)发布的收益报告以及上调未来几个季度的收入预期值之举可谓正当其时。该股因此上涨了10%，创下43.16美元的1年新高。

在高风险的公司收益发布期内，对于那些先是不能超额兑现业绩预期，随后又没能上调业绩预期的公司，通用电气(General Electric)就是前车之鉴：该股上周下跌了1.50美元，跌至29.32美元，股价下跌主要发生在上周五，此前该公司公布的收益虽然达到了预期，但公司却下调了第四季度业绩预期值的上端，并在分析师电话会议上仅对明年业绩表示了谨慎的乐观。

但股市光明的一面是，尽管通用电气的股票表现不佳，但股市却很好地应对了这一打击，上周五大盘的总体表现是基本持平，而大盘股指尚未显现出过于明显的疲态也是不争的事实。

同样显而易见的是，急不可耐的投资者不放过任何可能从股价上涨中获利的机会，天随人愿，一些乐观消息确实对股市起到了推动作用。

Countrywide Financial的股价上周攀升了13.16美元，达到94美元，涨幅多数是在上周五实现的，此前Sanford C. Bernstein的一位分析师称，不仅该公司的按揭业务表现良好，而且该公司还有可能被人以令人满意的价格收购。Countrywide随后发布了最新的2004年业绩预期，称这一年的每股收益将为15美元，位于此前13-15美元预期区间的高端。
华尔街那些急于改善业绩的投资者相信，股市上浓重的买盘人气目前足以使投资者忽视一些迫在眉睫的风险。例如，原油价格上周已接近每桶32美元，天然气价格也同样大幅上涨。

人们对美元兑日圆和欧元重拾跌势也不予理睬。普遍的观点是，只要美元的下跌是有序进行的，市场就不会受到负面影响。但问题是，外汇市场并不习惯于俯首帖耳，其交易经常会陷入无序状态。

不过能源价格的上涨和美元暴跌从而吓跑外国资本的可能性显然尚未影响到股市。不过也仅是尚未而已。

上周是股市跌至最近低点的一周年纪念日，如果投资者善于忆苦思甜的话，他们一定快要喜极而泣了。

股市在2002年10月9日和10日开始触底反弹，虽然在3月份的伊拉克战争期间又出现下跌，但2002年的低点仍被认为是主要股指的反弹平台，道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数自那以来都上涨了33%，那斯达克综合指数更是飙升了71% 。

但迄今为止的股市上扬究竟是一次长期熊市中的强劲回升还是一次新牛市的开始，抑或只是在大量游资和投资者发财欲望刺激下的昙花一现，目前还难有定论。

一年以前，由于企业状况连续一年半未见改善，公司利润的预期值被大幅下调。WorldCom经常成为媒体的头条新闻。投资者的规避风险意识占了上风，大约有数百家公司的证券都跌至了垃圾级。不过这也为投资者逢低买盘创造了机会。

自那以来，股市状况显然已出现了实质而根本性的改善。人们对经济衰退的担忧减弱，而通货紧缩的危险也已消除。今天，公司的收益前景不仅出现了改善，而且也变得更清晰了。这意味著，第三、第四季度的业绩预期不再需要下调，9月份当季人们对公司业绩的预期甚至开始上调。

问题是，公司业绩的改善是否足以支撑迅速上扬的股价和估值。以未来12个月的预期收益计，标准普尔500指数的平均本益比为17.5倍。

标准的股票/债券估价法(这种方法因其简单而存在误导性)显示，股票目前的估价可能仍有些偏低，但从历史情形看，情况并非如此。

因此，有关股市的乐观预期很少是建立在股票价格普遍低廉这一理由基础之上的。更多的情况下，正是那些表明股指还有更多上涨空间的三角形态证实或显示，股价低估现象已不存在。

例如，你还是什么都没看见理论(You-Ain't-Seen-Nothing-Yet)表明，企业明年的利润将因公司业务强劲而出乎华尔街的意料。 要使人相信这点需有一个条件，即公司的首席执行长和分析师们正在有意压低对2004年收益的预期。这等于是说，要实现13%的预期利润增长，就需要企业的运营或经济增长或两者兼有都达到最佳状态。

当然，可能性总是存在的；同样的事情在以往的经济周期中也曾出现过。需要指出的是，就像泼冷水的人常说的那样，目前对企业利润率的预测已经过于乐观。企业利润率提高的一个原因是，美国企业目前都未进行大规模的资本投资，而这种情况不会持久。

ISI Group上周列出了一个单子，称到2004年10月份时，如果经济要继续增长，股市要继续上扬，需要满足9个先决条件，首先就是要就业、资本支出和库存都实现增长。

另一个方法是，找出股市中估价最高的个股，并以其为参照，以判断其他股票的价格合理程度。科技股目前占标准普尔500指数成份股总市值的18%以上，但花旗集团(Citigroup)认为，这些公司所创造利润占标普500成份股公司2004年利润总额的比重不会超过12%。如不包括科技股，标准普尔500指数其余成份股的平均本益比在16倍以下，这是一个更容易被消化的数字，同时也可能显示出，更适合投资的股票在哪里。

这并不是说市场上没有人对科技股的估价持正面看法。科技股和周期性股的一个共同之点是，当公司预期收益被人为压低而导致股票本益比处于高水平时，这实际上就是买进该股的机会。而当公司的利润正在接近最高点并存在大幅下挫的可能时，实际上并不是买进该公司股票的时机。 美林公司(Merrill Lynch)上周五将半导体设备制造商应用材料公司(Applied Materials)列入了其最被看好的股票名单。在申述了该公司令人印象深刻的订单趋势、强有力的市场地位以及良好的资产负债状况后，美林的分析师Brett Hodess将该股的目标价定为27.50美元。他预计该公司的每股收益在2005年会达到1.10美元的最高值，并假定其本益比为25倍，从而得出了上述目标价。对于那些收益已达最高水平，而本益比则处于低水平的个股，又该作何评价呢？

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的Ben Lynch上周五将英特尔(Intel)的评级上调为买进，他在研究报告中说，虽然英特尔目前的本益比已达29倍(接近股市泡沫破灭前的高点30倍)，但由于股市目前对估价的敏感度不高，与其他大型半导体类股相比，英特尔目前的股价还算便宜。

这是一种"识时务者为俊杰"的逻辑，但任何听从这一建议而投资英特尔股票的人都希望，他们能够准确地判断出，市场何时会对已接近泡沫时期水平的股票估价变得更敏感了。

但并不是所有的乐观市场观察家都在试图为今日的高股价寻求合理解释。 在他们眼里，只有技术分析揭示出的强劲买盘动力和广泛买盘机会。他们以史为鉴，认为股市还有进一步的上涨空间，一般的看法是还能再涨5-10%，此后股市会如何表现就不好说了。

对于那些并不急于投资成长性股的人而言，投资一些能从经济加快增长中获益、表现又滞后于大盘的股票也不失为一种选择。

休闲餐馆运营商的股票似乎符合这一标准。这类股票的价格不仅低于股市大盘，也低于自己的历史高位，而它们的预期利润增幅却一直维持在理想水平。人们出外就餐的长期趋势仍未改变，这类股票过去6个月中的表现大大落后于其他类股，不过它们最近几年的总体表现则相当不错。 资金管理公司Loomis Sayles的首席市场分析师David Sowerby看好Brinker International、Steak 'N Shake等股票，理由是这些公司的估价适中，有充足的现金流，并且预计公司会从经济形势的改善中获益。

当然，在目前的经济环境下，价格既不贵而基本面方面又没有什么令人担忧之处的股票并不多见。食品成本和其他费用都在上升，餐馆连锁店在定价方面没有多大回旋余地。

雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers)的分析师最近就因上述理由而下调了Brinker(Chili's、Macaroni Grill和On the Border的母公司)的评级。

如何应对高价时代？

Why Rising Market Is a Bummer:

Nearly Everything's Overpriced

I'm fresh out of ideas.

When I look at the stock and bond markets, I look at them as a mutual-fund investor. Should I stash my next $100 in my foreign-stock fund? Should I add to my small-stock holdings? Should I plunk money in my kids' high-yield junk-bond funds?

Today, when I ask such questions, I draw a total blank. There isn't a single part of the global market that strikes me as cheap. Consider the uninspiring values on offer in today's market:

Bond investors often say they look to earn three percentage points a year more than inflation. But Tuesday, 10-year Treasury notes yields 4.26%, two percentage points above the 2.2% inflation rate for the past year.

Inflation-indexed Treasury bonds seem marginally more attractive, with 10-year inflation notes yielding 2.15 percentage points more than inflation. But that's hardly a handsome return once you factor in taxes.

Based on a popular Wall Street valuation model, stocks are undervalued relative to 10-year Treasurys. Still, the blue-chip stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are at 23 times expected reported earnings for 2003, according to Standard & Poor's, a unit of McGraw-Hill. At such lofty valuations, stock returns over the next 10 years are likely to be modest.

Equity real-estate investment trusts, which make money by buying properties and then renting them out, yielded over 9% in late 1999. But after four years of spectacular share-price gains, equity REIT payouts are below 6%, calculates Washington's National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts. The last time yields were below 6% was in early 1998 -- and performance was dreadful for the next two years.

As a rule of thumb, junk bonds are worth the risk if you can buy when yields are at least five percentage points above 10-year Treasury notes. Now, with junk bonds yielding a tad over 8%, or four percentage points more than Treasurys, there is less room for error.

　

Faced with such grim choices, investors might be tempted to retreat into a money-market fund. But with yields averaging 0.5% and the Federal Reserve showing no inclination to boost short-term interest rates, that could be the worst choice of all.

To be sure, I can work up slightly more enthusiasm for some investments. For instance, smaller U.S. stocks and foreign shares, especially emerging markets, appear attractive relative to blue-chip U.S. stocks.

Similarly, REITs and junk bonds seem moderately appealing, particularly given the low yields available elsewhere. Still, I wouldn't pound the table for any of these investments.

"We don't see any fat-pitch opportunities," says Kenneth Gregory, founding editor of the No-Load Fund Analyst, a newsletter in Orinda, Calif. "We also don't see anything that is grossly overvalued. Today, everything seems fairly valued."

Fairly valued? You sure wouldn't think that if you listened to investors. This year, I have heard the term "bubble" applied to Treasury bonds, real estate, technology shares, junk bonds and the entire U.S. stock market.

Clearly, after three wretched years in the stock market, investors are uneasy with this year's prosperity. But the dearth of bargains doesn't mean all these sectors will come crashing down.

The lack of bargains also doesn't mean all sectors will generate similar returns. As the prospects for some sectors brighten and others darken, investments are likely to post widely diverging short-run results. But, unfortunately, you need a crystal ball to forecast the winners and losers.

So what should you make of today's slim market pickings? For starters, tamp down your expectations. Treasury-bond investors shouldn't bank on collecting anything more than today's 4.26% yield, while investors in the S&P 500 might clock 6% or 7% a year over the decade ahead.

To compensate for such modest returns, aim to save even more every month, while simultaneously slashing your investment costs. Market performance comes and goes. But if you can cut investment costs and save more, you will definitely help your portfolio's growth.

Meanwhile, given the lack of enticing investment opportunities, it's more important than ever to stay diversified. You should set target percentages for how much of your portfolio you will invest in large-company stocks, small stocks, developed foreign-stock markets, emerging markets, REITs, high-quality U.S. bonds, inflation-indexed Treasury bonds, junk bonds and any other asset that intrigues you.

Think of these target percentages as your neutral mix. My advice: Keep your portfolio close to these targets. Every year, check your current portfolio weights and, if things are badly out of whack, revamp your portfolio to bring it back into line with your neutral mix. This rebalancing will keep your portfolio's risk level under control, and it may boost long-run returns.

Of course, not everybody is so cautious. What if you are inclined to stray from your targets and roll the dice on the most appealing market sectors? With no obvious bargains on offer, this seems like a bad time to make big market bets.

"People want to do something, which is why they tend to over-trade," says Clifford Asness , managing principal of New York hedge-fund manager AQR Capital Management. "But the object of the market is not to entertain us. You should stay diversified, pay low fees, relax and get on with the rest of your life."
如何应对高价时代？

我真是束手无策了。

当我观察股市和债市的时候，总把自己当成是一个共同基金投资者。那么，我应该把接下来的100美元投资于海外股票基金呢，还是应该增持小型股基金？或是把资金投入高风险的垃圾债券基金？

但现在面对这个问题，我的脑子里一片空白。放眼全球金融市场，没有任何一个地方存在廉价的投资品种。瞧瞧市场上那些平庸的种类吧：

债券市场上的投资者们通常希望债券的年投资回报率能比通货膨胀率高出3个百分点。但最新数据表明：十年期美国国债的收益率为4.26%，仅比去年的通货膨胀率高出2个百分点。去年的通货膨胀率为2.2%。

相比之下，通货膨胀保值债券(Inflation-indexed treasury bond, 简称：保值债券)的吸引力似乎更大一点：十年期保值债券的收益率比通货膨胀率高出2.15个百分点。但如果考虑到纳税因素，其投资回报实在不多。

根据一个华尔街分析师常用的估价模型计算，美国股票的价值已经相对于十年期国债被低估了。但麦格劳-希尔公司(McGraw-Hill)的子公司标准普尔(Standard Poor's)称，标准普尔500指数(Standard Poor's 500 stock index)中的蓝筹股以2003年预期收益计算的本益比仍高达23倍。。鉴于此，它们在今后十年的投资回报似乎也很有限。

在1999年下半年，权益型房地产投资信托基金(equity real estate investment trust)的投资回报率达到了9%以上。但是，根据位于华盛顿的美国房地产投资信托协会(National Association of Real Estate Investment Trust)的统计，在经历了连续4年的股价飙升后，权益型房地产投资信托基金的投资回报率下降至还不到6%。上一次出现这种情况是在1998年年初，随后的两年更加糟糕。

通常来说，如果垃圾债券的收益率比十年期国债的收益率高5个百分点，那还值得"铤而走险"。但目前垃圾债券的收益率仅略高于8%，即比国债的收益率高4个百分点，因此不可轻举妄动。 面对如此严峻的形势，投资者们也许有兴趣涉足货币市场基金。可是它们的平均收益率只有0.5%，而美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)又无意提高短期利率，所以这可是个最差的选择。

当然，有些投资我觉得还是不错的。例如，一些小型股和外国股票，特别是新兴市场的股票，似乎比美国蓝筹股更有吸引力。

同样，房地产投资信托和垃圾债券似乎也还可以，特别是考虑到其他投资品种的收益率很低。但这些选择都不能让我拍案叫绝。

位于加利福尼亚州的时事通讯《免佣基金分析师》(No-Load Fund Analyst)的创始编辑肯尼思?格雷戈里(Kenneth Gregory)表示："我们没有发现什么很好的投资机会，我们也不认为市场价格过高了。目前估价比较合理。"

比较合理？如果你听听投资者的看法，你就不这么认为了。今年以来，投资者们认为美国国债、房地产市场、科技股、垃圾债券和整个美国股市上都出现了"泡沫"。

在经历了3年的低迷之后，股市投资者们对于今年的复苏显然有些不安。但股市上没有低价股并不意味著整个市场都会猛跌。

没有低价股也不意味著各个行业类股的投资回报会差不多。某些领域的前景可能更加光明，而另一些领域的前景可能日趋黯淡，这样它们的短期投资回报也将截然不同。可遗憾的是，你得用个水晶玻璃球来预测谁是赢家，谁是输家。 那么，面对市场上极其有限的选择，你该怎么办呢？对于新手，先降低你的期望值吧。国债投资者们可别指望今后的收益率能超过目前的4.6%，而投资于标准普尔500指数的人们在今后十年里也许能获得6%至7%的投资回报。

为了弥补如此平庸的投资回报，你每个月应当存更多的钱，同时削减投资成本。市场总有潮涨潮落。但如果你降低投资成本并多攒点钱，你的投资组合无疑会日益壮大。

此外，鉴于市场上缺乏良好的投资机会，保持投资组合的多样性就显得比以往任何时候都重要。你应当设立目标，分配好投入大型股、小型股、发达国家股票、新兴市场股票、房地产投资信托基金、优质美国债券、保值债券、垃圾债券以及吸引你的其他投资领域的投资比例。

把上述投资比例作为基准。我的建议是：使你的投资组合尽量与上述目标保持一致。每年检查投资组合的现有权重，如果出现了严重偏离，就进行调整，使投资组合回到基准线上。这种调整活动将使投资组合的风险得到控制，并增进长期的投资回报。

当然，不是每个人都如此谨慎的。有人可能不愿意维持一定的投资比例，而更愿意投资于市场中看上去最诱人的类股。可是，由于市场上没有什么低廉的投资种类，此时下这样的大赌注似乎时机不对。

克利福德?阿思尼斯(Clifford Asness)是位于纽约的对冲基金管理公司AQR Captial Management的主管。他说，"大家总想投资有所回报，所以就会频频交易。但市场并不想取悦我们：你应当保持投资的多样化、减少支出，以轻松愉快的心情度过余生。"

落后股票领潮会有时

Are Laggards Poised to Become Market Leaders?

THE INVESTORS WHO'VE BEEN DRIVING the market's seven-month surge haven't cared about the place to go for the best weather, but only where the mercury was rising the most. This has meant, so to speak, that investors have flocked to the beaches in areas where the temperature was climbing from freezing to merely chilly, leaving the steadily mild territories behind.

The rate of change has mattered more than the resulting number. Those companies poised to show the swiftest improvement have gotten all the attention, never mind whether even that boost in profits would justify a higher stock price.

In Wall Street terms, the result is the supremacy of beta and earnings leverage -- the jumpiest stocks of the companies rebounding from the deepest depths. The much-remarked leadership of low-priced, low-quality, long-shot stocks over steady ones has been the result. To shift analogies, every feckless brother-in-law is getting rich while the solid citizens struggle to stay afloat.

The persistence of this pattern has been sending some of the more thoughtful market observers to ask when the beta-and-leverage trade might give way to the quality-and-predictability rotation.

The market's answer to this question last week was, "Not yet."

Stocks resumed an upward tilt early in the week, propelled by mechanical buying at the start of the fourth quarter after a late-September dip, which left aggressive sellers back on their heels by the time Friday's positive employment numbers arrived.

After Friday's reaction rally was through, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had climbed 259 points on the week, or 2.8%, to 9572. The Standard & Poor's 500 made a run at its recent closing high of 1039, jumping 33, or 3.3%, to 1029. The Nasdaq Composite, reasserting the leadership of beta and aggression, advanced 88, or 4.9%, to 1880, 1% below its latest peak of 1909 on Sept. 18.

The initial buying thrust occurred Wednesday, when the S&P 500 jumped 2.2%, suggesting that Oct. 1 is becoming a reliable date to be a one-day player, perhaps because of quarterly institutional cash flows into equities. On that date last year, the S&P was up 4% after having dropped hard in the prior two days. The index then collapsed to the Oct. 9 low that for now still stands as the market's bottom.

The report that spurred Friday's up leg said employers added to payrolls for the first time in seven months. Certainly the 57,000 net new jobs in September were a pleasant surprise, given the forecasts for a drop of 20,000. But the broader picture of a slack labor market was left undisturbed by an unchanged unemployment rate and slippage in hourly earnings. The Dow's 84-point one-day gain was less half its peak intra-day rise, as the bidding flagged ahead of the holiday weekend.

From the file labeled Counterintuitive Market Calls, there's talk in some circles that the news item that might coincide with a top in the indexes could be an eventual blockbuster monthly jobs increase.
This arises from a mixture of gut-driven iconoclasm -- the market's up big in a year of huge job losses, after all -- and the rationale that a hiring surge would compromise corporate profit margins that have generally been nursed to healthy levels. Consider that a UBS investment strategist just raised S&P 500 earnings forecasts for 2004 based on margin increases helped by "rising sales per employee," a sign that a hiring lag is integral to the consensus profitability assumptions.

Of course, a spike in interest rates from a gaudy payroll increase might also prove unfriendly to stocks. Be that as it may, this hypothesis isn't likely to be tested very soon.

If, as some have suggested, a leadership shift is under way from momentum moon shots to laggards, from speculative to stolid, it's happening in a tentative and halting fashion.

True, the charts of Chinese Internet stocks, the very EKG of aggressive traders, have reached a momentary plateau after their mountainous runs higher. In recent weeks the Morgan Stanley Consumer index -- full of traditional staples names -- has gained some ground on its doppelganger Cyclical index, itself a measure of earnings-leverage hopes.

Still, that's mere spotty evidence. The front-running Nasdaq, which is dominated by the blue chips of the technology economy, hardly tells the whole story of the high-beta rally that was revived last week. Just see the Internet HOLDRS, an exchange-traded fund containing a dozen once-glorious Web stocks, which ramped 7% higher last week and are 75% above their March low.

Whether the market is readying itself for the "quality trade" just yet, there are plenty of reasons for investors now to consider pursuing it, all the same.

Morgan Stanley strategist Steve Galbraith is among those pointing out that corporate earnings growth rates are strong but appear poised to ebb after this quarter, meaning profit improvement will continue at a slower pace. In contrast to the March panic low, when earnings-growth rates bottomed and share prices were deeply discounted, the current situation features higher stock prices and decelerating earnings growth.

The result could be a jump in market volatility, possibly already under way, and more-frequent "blowups." Galbraith suggests the way to play this phase is "to shift toward laggards and stable growth stocks."

Another minor point: Household-products stocks have been an excellent bet to outperform the overall market by a healthy margin in the fourth quarter, going back to the mid-'Eighties, says UBS.

If such a turnabout is going to happen, in which tech stocks cede the forefront, another logical defensive play is the drug sector. Russ Koesterich, equity strategist at State Street Global Markets, calculates that pharmaceutical stocks are three-times more likely to beat the market when tech is lagging. Drug stocks, as frequently noted, are as cheap based on earnings as they've been since 1995, partly a result of declining long-term earnings-growth assumptions.
And tech shares, say what you will, can be called impressive but not inexpensive. As the nearby charts show, the Nasdaq has followed a post-bubble revival path dictated by history, nearly tick for tick. That upside inertia has frustrated many a tech denier.

But a look even at the more fundamentally admirable tech heavyweights shows the risk of capitalized optimism. One tech-focused investor remarks that at the end of '99, Intel shares were at 41, or 25 times what Intel was expected to earn in 2000.

Today, at 29.61, Intel trades for 38 times forecast 2003 earnings and 28 times the hoped-for 2004 number. Intel might have better luck meeting next year's estimates than it did with the forecasts for 2000, but that in itself doesn't make the stock a Buy.

JOHN HANCOCK FINANCIAL'S AGREEMENT last week to be acquired by Canada's Manulife for a slim premium is part of a pattern of life insurers apparently throwing in the towel. MONY Group recently sold out to AXA Financial at what many investors complain is an insulting price. And Safeco last week said it would seek a buyer for its life business.

This activity smells to some stock pickers as capitulation by the sellers, a sign of exasperation at their low stock multiples awarded for generally low-return life operations. The question is whether this marks a kind of bottom and buying opportunity for other vulnerable life insurers.

It might not be quite so simple. Even though these deals do suggest a long- awaited round of industry consolidation is brewing, there aren't enough ambitious and aggressive buyers to create attractive premiums for likely targets.

Morgan Stanley analyst Nigel Dally suggests that the big European insurers are no longer looking for entree into the U.S. market, and the notion of creating "financial supermarkets" no longer involves owning a life-insurance provider. Distribution, not underwriting, seems to have gotten the upper hand.

Nonetheless, further consolidation stands to help overall industry returns by reducing capacity and rationalizing capital use. This view has him favoring the larger, better-capitalized players who could stand to benefit by making sensible acquisitions and riding overall industry profitability improvements.

In particular, Hartford Financial and Met Life stand out in this category. Both companies have shares trading at nine-to-10 times expected 2004 earnings and 1.3-to-1.4-times book value. Both stocks ticked higher following the Hancock news. Yet even though Dally remains neutral on the life-insurance sector, he still can see around 20% upside for Hartford and Met Life.
This is the kind of idea that would have the average screen-blind Nasdaq junkie reaching for the Delete key, but in apathy may lie opportunity.

IN THEIR HERD-LIKE RUSH TO BET against several hot specialty retailers, short sellers have been early. Which is also known as wrong in this daily mark-to-market game. A handful of trendy mall-based clothing chains have attracted skeptics with their breakneck growth rates, generous valuations and stock charts that slope precipitously toward the upper right.

The result is that some teen retailers such as Hot Topic and Urban Outfitters, and women's chains including Bebe Stores and Chico's FAS, are sitting with anywhere from 10% to 23% of their available shares having been sold short. By comparison, short interest in the market over all is around 2%-3% of all shares. As often noted, a big short position can prolong a stock's upward run by providing latent buying interest.

Short sellers frequently operate with a wide moralistic streak as self-anointed administrators (and profiteers) of a kind of market justice, targeting companies they believe to be financial sinners in need of punishment.

Such moralism is lacking with regard to these flourishing retail names, which most skeptics will allow have managed to grow impressively by plying successful niches in a tough industry. The doubters are simply positioning for that time when an expensive growth stock that's slave to high investor expectations succumbs to the reality that the stores' sharp fashions turn to stale fad.

For Chico's, which has won over many women over 30 with its flattering apparel designs and bold accessories, there's no clear evidence in the numbers that its impressive momentum is about to slow. Sales at stores open at least a year have been rising at a 12% rate so far this fiscal year and earnings are on track to jump 25%. Its gross margins are enormous, thanks in part to its in-house design and manufacturing.

Keith Long of Otter Creek Management in Palm Beach, Fla., concedes all of that, and further extols Chico's merchandising smarts, such as a customer-rewards program that engenders loyalty. Still, with the stock having tripled to 33 over two years and now trading above 25 times projected earnings for the year ending February 2005, he sees enough hints of potential trouble to put himself in the crowded short camp.
He spies a red flag in the company's recent $90 million purchase of White House, a smaller and sleeker women's retailer whose gimmick -- insiders would call it the "concept" -- is that its White House stores carry only white clothes and its Black Market locations are all black.

On one level this could be a shrewd hedge by Chico's, whose clothes are more colorful and loosely draped, in the Sun Belt style. One distinguishing point of Chico's is its ego-buffering sizing scheme, which runs 0-3 and spares women from the unforgiving standard size scale that stretches well into the double digits. Chico's recently decided to shutter a test unit called Pazo, intended to appeal to somewhat younger women.

Long, by his own admission no expert on women's fashion, nonetheless has encountered anecdotal hints of a minor backlash, such as a couple of women in Chico's target demographic he overheard poking fun at the "Chico's look" at a South Florida dinner party. He also notes that Chico's style is fairly easy to knock off, and department stores have begun trying. It's also worth mentioning that founder and Chairman Marvin Gralnick has been selling healthy amounts of stock, though he retains a large stake.

These concerns may not impede Chico's momentum for some time to come, assuming they ever do, in which case the stock might continue to stampede over the frustrated short sellers. But at minimum, it has rarely paid to be a buyer of a fashion-dependent stock that's already inflated with such giddy expectations.
落后股票领潮会有时

那些推动股市连续7个月上涨的投资者在选择股票时看重的是涨幅而非质量。这好似他们都一窝蜂挤在了冰雪初融的海岸上，却将一贯温和的陆地抛在脑后。

人们对公司业绩改善程度的关注一直超过业绩本身。那些业绩改善最为迅速的公司吸引了投资者的全部注意力，人们根本不考虑公司利润增长的幅度是否足以证实其股价上涨的合理性。

对华尔街而言，那些业绩反弹幅度最大的股票最受青睐。相对于那些表现一贯稳定的股票，那些低价、低质且备受打击的股票一直更受欢迎。换句话说，会哭的孩子有奶吃。

这种局面的持续使一些更有头脑的市场观察人士不禁要问，什么时候那些质量更好、可预见性强的股票才能占据上风呢？市场上周对此的回答是：目前还不是时候。

如果真像某些人说的那样，领涨大盘的正从那些牛气冲天的股票转向表现一向滞后的股票，从更具投机性的股票转向那些表现平稳的股票，那么这种局面也尚不稳固。

诚然，最能反映交易员野心勃勃心态的中国互联网类股技术图形显示，股价变动曲线在经历了大幅上涨后已暂时进入了一个平稳期。而近几周来，成份股多为传统经济类股的摩根士丹利消费者指数也已有所上涨。
但以此为证并不是十拿九稳的。仅仅观察以蓝筹科技股为主的那斯达克综合指数并不能窥见高风险股票上周表现的全貌。Internet HOLDRS是一个指数股票基金，投资对象包括十几只一度表现辉煌的互联网类股，该基金的价格上周就上涨了7%，它目前较其3月份低点已上涨了75%。

不管股市宠儿是否正向优质股票转移，对投资者而言，他们现在仍有很多理由应考虑投资这类股票。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的策略师史蒂夫?格布瑞甚(Steve Galbraith)等人指出，尽管企业利润的增长依然强劲，但增幅在本季度结束后似乎将要下降，这意味著企业利润改善的步伐将会减缓。现在的情形与3月份时正好相反，当时企业利润的增长情况已开始好转，而股价则处于很低的水平，而现在一面是股价处于较高水平，一面却是企业利润增长率正在下降。

这可能导致股市的波动性大为增强。格布瑞甚对应对这一局面的建议是，转而投资那些表现滞后但增长稳定的股票。

瑞士银行(UBS)则认为，家用产品制造商由于第四季度的利润率情况良好，其股票的表现很有可能强于大盘。

如果真的出现这种风水轮流转的情况，科技类股退居次席，那么制药类股则有可能成为又一类抗跌股票。State Street Global Markets的股票策略师罗斯?科斯特里奇(Russ Koesterich)认为，当科技类股的表现转而滞后时，制药类股的涨幅有可能三倍于股市大盘。自1995年以来，制药类股的本益比一直不高，这部分应归因于投资者对这类公司长期利润增幅的预期一直在下降。

反观科技股，虽然其前景仍然诱人，但这类股票的价格却已不菲。技术图形显示，那斯达克综合指数正在亦步亦趋地沿著历史上泡沫经济破灭后股市复苏的曲线前行。这一上行趋势使许多人不得不对科技股刮目相看。

但即使是从那些更能反映基本面因素的科技权重股身上，也能看出投资过分集中的风险。一位侧重于科技股的投资者称，1999年年底时英特尔(Intel)的股价为41美元，以该公司2000年的预期收益计，其本益比为25倍。

英特尔目前的股价为29.61美元，以该公司2003年的预期收益计，其本益比为38倍，以2004年的预期收益计，其本益比为28倍。英特尔明年完成收益目标的情况可能会好于2000年，但仅此一项并不能使其成为一只值得买进的股票。

John Hancock Financial上周同意仅以略高于股市收盘价的价格被加拿大的宏利金融(Manulife)所收购，这部分显示出人寿保险类股显然已成明日黄花。而AXA Financial对MONY Group的收购价更被许多投资者认为低得令人难堪。Safeco上周也表示，正在为其人寿保险业务寻找买家。
由于人寿保险业务的投资回报普遍不高，人寿保险公司的本益比也处在低水平，这才导致上述人寿保险公司不得不低价标售。现在的问题是，人寿保险公司的坏运气是否已经到头，现在是否是逢低买进其他表现不佳的人寿保险类股的时候了？

但事情可能并非如此简单。即使上述交易确实表明，人们期待已久的人寿保险业整合已经开始，但仍没有多少雄心勃勃的买家肯出大价钱购买这类股票。

摩根士丹利的分析师奈杰尔?戴利(Nigel Dally)称，欧洲大型保险公司已不再寻求进入美国市场，而组建“金融超市”也不再意味著要拥有一家人寿保险公司。分销业务的重要性已超过了承保业务。

无论如何，保险业可通过进一步整合来减少企业数量，使资金的使用趋于合理，从而提高整个行业的投资回报率。戴利因此看好那些规模较大、资本状况较好的保险公司，这些公司可以从行业整合和行业总体盈利能力提高中获益。

他尤其看好Hartford Financial和Met Life。以2004年的预期收益计，这两只股票的本益比都在9至10倍之间，其股价与帐面价值之比也都在1.3至1.4倍之间。在Hancock被收购的消息公布后，这两只股票均小幅上扬。尽管戴利对人寿保险类股的总体评级仍为中性，但他仍然认为Hartford和Met Lifehe的股价有约20%的上涨空间。

好高骛远的那斯达克市场投资者可能对此不屑一顾，但他们可能也正因此而放过了赚钱机会。

那些一窝蜂地卖空几只热门服装专卖商股票的投资者是操之过急了。这些时装连锁店的业绩增长率令人眩目，其股票估价已经很高，而股价则呈直线上扬之势，这引发了投资者的不安情绪，担心这些股票的涨势可能无法继续维持。

这导致儿童服装零售商如Hot Topic和Urban Outfitters以及女装零售商如Bebe Stores和Chico's FAS的股票卖空量已达到其可交易股票数量的10%至23%。而股市总的卖空量只占上市股票数量的2%-3%左右。一般而言，由于巨大的空头头寸可提供潜在的买进兴趣，因而遭卖空股票的上行趋势会得以延长。

卖空者经常自命为市场正义的化身，认为自己有责任惩罚那些财务不够健全的公司。

但在那些繁荣兴旺的零售类企业面前，卖空者的正义感就所剩无几了。这些企业都是业内的佼佼者，只有当这些公司不再站在时尚前沿时，才有人会怀疑它们的股价是否已经过高。

Chico's以其诱人的服装设计和大胆前卫的饰物赢得了许多30岁以上妇女的青睐，该公司业绩并未出现明显的滑坡迹象。本财政年度迄今为止，该公司开业时间1年以上店铺的销售额增长了12%，公司同期的利润则跃升了25%。由于该公司集设计和生产于一体，其毛利润率也很高。

Otter Creek Management的基思? 龙(Keith Long)认为，鉴于该股价格两年之间已经涨了三倍，涨至33美元，且以该公司截至2005年2月这一财年的预期收益计，其目前的本益比约为25倍，他认为该股面临的潜在下跌风险足以使其决定卖空这只股票。

龙还指出，Chico's的销售模式很容易被颠覆，已有百货商店在做这种尝试。另外值得注意的是，该公司创始人兼董事长已卖出了数量可观的该公司股票。

上述担心短期内可能不会影响Chico's的上涨动力，但对于这样一只股价已因投资者期望值过高而大幅上涨的股票，投资者至少已经没有什么油水可赚了。

如何合理运用指数基金

How to Fit Index Funds Into Your Investment Mix

First, you have to convince folks to buy index funds. Then the fighting begins in earnest.

As a huge fan of indexing, I love to see investors stash money in stock-index funds. These funds pursue the simplest of strategies: They buy many or all of the stocks that make up a market index, in an effort to replicate the index's performance.

But how should you use index funds in your portfolio? It's a hotly debated issue. Here are just some of the possible strategies:

Divide and Rule

The most popular index funds are those that track the Standard & Poor's 500, an index of large-company stocks. That popularity is richly deserved. For instance, the giant $83 billion-in-assets Vanguard 500 Index Fund outperformed 82% of competing large-company funds over the past 10 years, according to Chicago's Morningstar Inc.

Faced with such stellar results, many investors have concluded that blue-chip U.S. stocks are so thoroughly picked over that it is all but impossible for professional money managers to overcome the burden of their own investment expenses and score market-beating gains. Their new portfolio-building strategy: Ditch actively managed large-company stock funds and replace them with an S&P 500 fund.

But at the same time, these investors continue to use active funds for smaller U.S. stocks and for foreign shares, because they figure these markets are less efficient and thus a talented money manager still has a decent chance of beating the market.

All the Way

While using actively managed funds for less efficient markets might seem a smart strategy, the odds of success are slim. For proof, consider some numbers from Vanguard Group in Malvern, Pa.

Vanguard divided actively managed U.S. stock funds into nine categories, such as small-company growth funds and midsize value funds, and then analyzed their performance over the past 10 years. Growth funds favor companies that are expanding rapidly, while value funds lean toward stocks that appear cheap based on assets and current earnings.

Result? In eight of the nine categories, a majority of actively managed funds lagged behind their sector's benchmark index. In other words, even in supposedly inefficient market sectors, most managers still don't beat the market.
As the evidence against active managers has mounted, many folks have taken to building portfolios consisting entirely of index funds. At its simplest, that might involve just three funds, a bond-market index fund, a foreign-stock index fund and a fund that tracks the Wilshire 5000 "total market" index of almost all U.S. stocks.

Want to build this three-fund portfolio? You can find the necessary funds at Vanguard, Baltimore's T. Rowe Price Associates and San Francisco's Charles Schwab Corp. T. Rowe Price and Schwab's index funds have $2,500 minimums, while Vanguard's funds require a $3,000 investment.

Striking a Balance

For most investors, I think the three-index-fund portfolio is a great way to go. But if you are an investment junkie, you might tweak this mix, in an effort to capture a larger rebalancing bonus.

As I explained in last week's column, regular rebalancing can control risk and nudge up long-run returns. The idea is to set target percentages for your funds and then revamp your portfolio every year or so to bring it back into line with these targets. That forces you to lighten up on hot funds that may be set to cool and to add to those that are depressed and could be due for a rebound.

But if you want a decent-size rebalancing bonus, you will need more than just the three-index-fund portfolio. "The first thing you should add are real-estate investment trusts," advises William Bernstein, an investment adviser in North Bend, Ore. "The big rebalancing opportunities are between stocks and bonds and between real estate and everything else."

To boost your rebalancing bonus even further, you could split your international-stock exposure between a developed-foreign-markets fund and an emerging-markets fund. Similarly, you might pass on a Wilshire 5000 fund and instead substitute a large-company value-index fund, a large-company growth fund, a small-stock value fund and a small-stock growth fund. Rebalancing among these four funds should generate higher long-run returns than owning just the Wilshire 5000.

Problem is, rebalancing can also trigger hefty tax bills, more than offsetting any gain from rebalancing. Moreover, these more-specialized index funds are sometimes less tax-efficient than the better-diversified alternatives.

The implication: If you are investing through a retirement account, consider rebalancing among specialized funds. But if you are investing through a taxable account, your best bet is to buy and hold broadly diversified index funds.

Placing Your Bets

When indexers "slice and dice" the market with specialized index funds, often they aren't just seeking to bolster returns through rebalancing. Rather, they are also aiming to overweight value stocks, and especially smaller value stocks, because academic studies suggest these shares will generate superior long-run returns.

But will they? I have my doubts. To earn higher long-run returns, you need to take greater risk. Yet, despite what value proponents claim, it isn't clear to me that value stocks are riskier than growth stocks.

That said, you probably won't go too far wrong if you tilt your portfolio toward small value companies, or emerging-market stocks, or real-estate investment trusts, or any other sector. Make sure, however, that you don't go overboard with these bets.

Yes, it is tempting to wager a slug of money on an apparently attractive sector. But if you aren't careful, you will sacrifice your portfolio's broad diversification. And, in the end, that broad diversification is the prudent portfolio builder's most-reliable friend.

View the first three parts of this four-part series: "The First Step to Investing:
Choose Your Cornerstones;" "And Now, It's Time to Pick Your Supporting Cast;" and "Make Sure to Stay the Course."
如何合理运用指数基金

首先，你必须要说服人们购买指数基金。然后，真正的考验才开始。

作为一个指数基金的忠实拥趸者，我很乐意看到投资者投资股票指数基金。这类基金遵循的是最简单的投资策略：即购买组成股市指数的全部或多数股票，以期跟踪股指的表现。

但你在投资组合中应该怎样利用指数基金呢？这是一个争议颇多的热门话题。以下是几种可以采用的策略：

一、分类管理

目前最流行的指数基金都是追踪标准普尔500指数（一种以大型股为成份股的指数）的。这类颇受欢迎的指数基金也的确物有所值。总资产达到830亿美元的Vanguard 500指数基金就是个很好的例子。位于芝加哥的研究公司Morningstar Inc.的数据显示，Vanguard 500指数基金的表现较过去10年中82%的大型企业股票基金更为优异。

如此恒定的表现让许多投资者得出结论，认为美国蓝筹股都是经过精心选择的，因此对于职业的投资经理人来说，超越自身投资支出的负担而获得强于大盘的表现几乎是不可能的。所以，投资者组建新投资组合的策略就是：放弃进行积极管理的大型股基金，而代之以标准普尔500指数基金。

但与此同时，在美国小型股和外国股票方面，这些投资者继续选择积极管理的基金，因为他们认为上述市场相对缺乏效率，一位有才干的基金经理仍会有很大的机会跑赢大市。

二、贯穿始终

虽然表面看来在相对缺乏效率的市场上选用积极管理的基金是明智的策略，但实际上成功的希望还是微乎其微。关于这一点，位于宾夕法尼亚州马尔文的Vanguard Group提供的一些数据可以证明。

Vanguard将进行积极管理的美国股票基金分为9大类，诸如小型股增长型基金、中型股价值型基金等，然后分析了这些基金在过去10年中的表现。增长型基金比较青睐迅速扩张的企业，而价值型基金则更偏爱那些根据资产和当前收益计算看上去相对廉价的股票。

分析结果如何呢？在这9大类基金的8类中，绝大多数进行积极管理的基金表现落后于各自市场的基准指数。换句话说，即使在被认为是相对缺乏效率的市场上，多数基金经理仍不能跑赢大市。

由于存在不利于积极管理基金的证据，所以很多人开始倾向于组建完全由指数基金组成的投资组合。在最简单的情况下，可能投资组合仅包含3种基金：一个债市指数基金、一个外国股市指数基金以及一个跟踪Wilshire 5000指数（成份股几乎囊括所有美国股票）的基金。

如果你想组建这种包含3个基金的投资组合，你可以从Vanguard、巴尔的摩的T. Rowe Price Associates以及旧金山的嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp)那里发现所需要的基金。T. Rowe Price和嘉信理财的指数基金最低认购额为2,500美元，而Vanguard的指数基金最低认购额为3,000美元。

三、保持平衡

我认为对于大多数的投资者来说，这种3个指数基金组成的投资组合是很好的选择。但如果你是个热衷投资的人，你可以将投资组合更加复杂化，以通过不断地重新平衡投资组合比例来获得更大收益。

在上周的专栏文章中我曾经提到过，经常性地平衡投资组合比例可以控制风险、提高长期的回报率。做法就是：首先为你的基金确定投资比例目标，然后每过大约一年左右，重新调整投资组合的比例，使之与原定目标相符。这样会迫使你减持那些虽然热门但可能面临降温的基金，增持那些虽然被冷落但可能反弹的基金。

然而，如果你想通过平衡投资比例获得可观的收益，你就不能局限于仅由3个指数基金组成的投资组合。驻俄勒冈州North Bend的投资顾问威廉-伯恩斯坦(William Bernstein)建议说，投资者首先应该增持的是房地产信托投资基金。在股票和债券之间，以及房地产与其他基金之间进行投资比例的再平衡往往能带来最佳的机会。
为了进一步提高平衡投资比例带来的收益，你还可以将外国股票市场区分为成熟外国市场基金和新兴外国市场基金。同样，你也可以去掉Wilshire 5000指数基金，而代之以一个大型股价值型基金、一个大型股增长型基金、一个小型股价值型基金和一个小型股增长型基金。在这四种基金之间进行投资比例再平衡的操作能比仅仅持有Wilshire 5000指数基金带来更高的长期收益。

但问题在于：重新平衡投资组合的操作会产生很高的税费支出，会大大抵消由此带来的收益。另外，在纳税方面，这些比较专门化的指数基金大多比投资较为分散的指数基金效率要低。

这就意味著，如果你通过退休金帐户进行投资的话，你应该考虑在专门化的指数基金中进行投资组合的再平衡。但如果你是通过纳税帐户进行投资，你最佳的选择是购买和持有较为分散的指数基金。

四、适当冒险

当指数基金投资者通过投资专门化基金分割组合的时候，他们往往不仅仅追求以重新平衡策略来提高回报率。实际上，他们还以增持价值型股票为目标，特别是小型股的价值型股票，因为学术研究的结果表明，这类股票会在长期内带来丰厚的回报。

但他们能成功吗？我有所怀疑。要想获取更高的长期回报率，你不得不冒更大的风险，尽管价值型股票的追捧者都这么说，但在我看来价值型股票并不明显比增长型股票风险更大。

也就是说，如果你将投资组合偏向于价值型小型股，新兴市场股票，或者房地产信托投资基金，或者其他类型的指数基金，你可能不会误入歧途太远。当然，你应该确定自己没有过量持有这些基金。

的确，向明显具有吸引力的基金投入一部份资金是很有诱惑力的，但如果你不小心，你可能会牺牲投资组合的分散化特点。而归根结底，广泛投资的分散化原则才是谨慎的投资者最可信赖的朋友。

中印股市大比拼 中国稍逊一筹

Indian Stocks Have an Edge Over Their Chinese Cousins

China's explosive economic growth and vast domestic market have made it the world's top destination for direct business investment. But when it comes to investing in the stock market, a recent study suggests India might be a better bet.

In a survey of 61 Chinese companies trading in Hong Kong and 69 Indian companies listed in Bombay, CLSA Emerging Markets concludes Indian companies enjoyed greater daily trading volume, offered a better return on equity and should have superior earnings growth during 2004. Indian companies also generally scored higher on CLSA's corporate-governance ratings.

"Everyone talks about China, but India offers better shareholder value," says Damian Kestel, a member of the CLSA regional sales team who conducted the study. "Indian companies look to make money, not just gain market share."

The study, in effect, highlights the contrasting approaches of Beijing and New Delhi toward developing their economies and capital markets. Where China's export-driven manufacturing growth has generated a rising tide of foreign investment in the country, India has been slower to open up. But it has done a better job of developing world-class companies.
So in this high-stakes competition for global capital between the world's two most populous nations, multinational companies have been more eager to make big investments in China and continue to view the Chinese consumer as an unparalleled opportunity. Yet India has spawned a greater number of companies that can compete on a global scale and whose management style bears a closer resemblance to their American and European peers. That list includes Indian software firms such as Infosys Technologies and Wipro, pharmaceutical concerns such as Ranbaxy Laboratories and a number of outsourcing companies.

These qualities should make Indian companies more appealing to foreign investors, the CLSA study suggests. This proved especially true among the largest Indian and Chinese companies, which tend to be the ones most closely watched by international fund managers.

In the category of stocks with a market capitalization of $2 billion or more, the survey found that Indian companies' return on equity of 30% was nearly double that of Chinese companies' 17%. In this group, Indian earnings per share were also forecast to rise 16% next year, compared with a 3% decline in earnings per share for the largest Chinese companies.

Moreover, the daily trading volume for this basket of Indian companies easily exceeds that of the large Chinese companies, even though the latter had a market capitalization nearly three times as big. That's because figures on China's market capitalization can be misleading; they often include large chunks of shares controlled by the government that rarely trade.

Still, India's advantage doesn't extend across the board. CLSA indicated that for companies valued at no more than $1 billion it was a "pretty even race" in terms of offering shareholder value. CLSA said China small-cap valuations also looked more attractive.

So far this year, investors have done almost equally well in both markets. The Morgan Stanley Capital International China index is up 33% in dollar terms, while the India index is ahead 31%.

And some fund managers argue that in the near term China offers a greater number of potentially attractive new companies to consider. For instance, three Chinese insurance companies -- PICC Property & Casualty, China Life Insurance and Ping An Insurance -- are expected to list shares in Hong Kong, and possibly in New York, by the middle of next year.

"I see more momentum in China than India in terms of the government making an effort to get companies listed," said Brad Aham, a senior portfolio manager at State Street Global Advisors in Hong Kong. He also says he thinks some sectors in China, such as energy, will gain momentum -- and be more responsive to shareholders -- as they begin to make acquisitions outside of China.

But Indian-market advocates counter that too much corporate activity in China remains state-directed, reflecting how Beijing has traditionally used the stock market as a means of bailing out weak state-owned enterprises. India, they argue, has better disclosure among its companies, stronger property rights and a more investor-friendly legal system.

Ray Jovanovich, a fund manager with Credit Agricole Asset Management in Hong Kong, says he favors Indian stocks over Chinese. He points to infrastructure-related companies such as Associated Cement and engineering firm Larsen & Toubro. The Indian banking system is also widely considered more advanced and stable than China's, where by some estimates nonperforming loans are approaching 50% of gross domestic product. Mr. Jovanovich says he likes ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
中印股市大比拼 中国稍逊一筹

中国经济的飞速增长和其国内市场的庞大规模使其成为全球头号外国直接投资目的国，但最近的一项研究显示，在股市投资方面，与中国相比，印度可能是更好的一个选择。

里昂证券新兴市场(CLSA Emerging Markets)针对61家在香港上市的中国公司和在孟买上市的69家印度公司进行了一项调查。调查结果显示，印度公司股票的日均成交量较大，股东权益回报率较高，2004年业绩增长也会较好。印度公司在CLSA调查的公司治理指标上得分普遍较高。

主持此项调查的里昂证券新兴市场地区销售业务部门的达米安?凯斯特尔(Damian Kestel)说，所有人都在谈论中国，但印度公司提供的投资者价值更高。印度公司希望赚钱，而不仅是扩大市场占有率。

事实上，这项调查突出表明北京和新德里在发展经济和资本市场这一问题的做法上存在著很大差别。

中国受出口带动的制造业增长导致涌入该国的外国投资不断增长，而印度开放的步伐一直要慢一些，但印度在建设世界级公司方面做得更好。

在这两个全球人口最多的国家之间，一场利益攸关的全球资本争夺战正在展开。在这场竞争中，跨国公司一直更急于在中国进行大型投资，并仍然认为中国消费市场是其前所未有的机遇所在。然而，印度已经拥有了更多的能够在国际市场上开展竞争的公司，这些公司的管理风格与欧美公司更为接近，其中包括Infosys Technologies和Wipro等软件公司，Ranbaxy Laboratories等制药公司以及诸多的外包业务公司。

CLSA调查显示，印度公司的上述优势将使其对外国投资者更具吸引力。这种吸引力在两国大型公司之间表现得尤为明显，这些大型公司通常也是国际基金经理最为关注的公司。

调查发现，在市值20亿美元以上的公司中，印度公司的股东权益回报率为30%，中国公司仅为17%，相差近一倍。此类公司中，预计印度公司的每股收益明年将增长16%，中国公司的每股收益则将下跌3%。

此外，印度大型公司的日均成交量要远远高于中国大型公司，尽管后者的市值几乎是前者的3倍之多。中国公司通常拥有大量不能交易的国有股，市值数字因此可能令人误解。

不过，印度也并非在所有方面都处于优势。里昂证券新兴市场的调查显示，对于市值不超过10亿美元的公司而言，两国公司的股东价值指标可谓“旗鼓相当”。CLSA称，与印度同类公司相比，中国小型股似乎更具吸引力。

今年迄今为止，投资者在两国股市的投资收益基本相同。按美元计算，摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数涨33%，印度指数则上扬31%。一些基金经理还表示，近期中国值得投资的、较具吸引力的新上市公司数量较多。比如，中国的3家保险公司--中国人民保险公司(PICC Property & Casualty)、中国人寿保险公司(China Life Insurance)和平安保险公司(Ping An Insurance)将在香港上市，明年年中前还可能在纽约上市。

道富环球投资管理(State Street Global Advisors)驻香港的高级投资组合经理布拉德?埃汉姆(Brad Aham)说，在政府努力推动公司上市方面，他认为中国要比印度投入更多些。他还认为，中国能源等一些行业将从中获益，并会更加关注股东利益。这些行业的公司目前已经开始在境外实施并购。

但看好印度市场的人士则反驳说，中国公司的很多活动仍在政府管理之下，这反映出中国政府传统上一直把股市作为救助经营不善的国有企业的一个手段。这些人士认为，印度公司在信息披露、产权和向投资者提供法律保护等方面做得更好。

东方汇理资产管理(Credit Agricole Asset Management)驻香港的基金经理雷?约万诺维奇(Ray Jovanovich)说，相对于中国股市来说，他更看好印度股市。他特别提到印度的Associated Cement和Larsen & Toubro公司。他说，人们普遍认为印度银行系统要比中国银行系统更为发达和稳定。一些人士估计中国的不良贷款额接近国内生产总值的50%。约万诺维奇说，他看好ICICI Bank和Kotak Mahindra Bank。

即日平仓交易卷土重来

Day Trading Makes a Comeback And Brokers Vie for the Business


Day trading, one of the hallmarks of the stock-market bubble, is back, prompting online brokerage firms to slash rates to woo quick-fingered stock investors.

Firms such as Fidelity Investments are reporting that trading volumes are rising sharply, though they are still well below levels seen before the stock market peaked three years ago. The higher volumes, and competition among brokerage firms to attract this business, demonstrate just how strongly the market's recent recovery has affected the behavior of individual investors and the companies that court them.

Day trading, the frenzied exchange of shares online by individual investors, by the day, hour or minute, acquired a poor reputation in the speculative bubble that popped in the year 2000. Indeed, this time around, brokers like to call it "active trading." The new breed of fast traders generally aren't trading quite as rapidly as did the stock junkies of the late-1990s.

But whether brokers call them day traders or not, energetic online investing "is back in vogue and brokerage firms are all competitively trying to capture these traders because they are the most active base of customers," says Matt Snowling, senior analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, an Arlington, Va., brokerage firm.

Fidelity -- one of the nation's biggest discount brokers as well as the largest mutual-fund company -- reported 59,976 average daily trades in August, up 16% from the same month the year before. Two big rivals, Ameritrade Holding Corp. and E*Trade Group Inc., have both announced recently that trading activity in September is up 30% or more from August.

Fidelity said Monday it would cut the commissions on stock and options trades almost in half for those who trade at least 120 times a year. Those customers will pay only $8 a trade. Fidelity's best commission rate was previously $14 and available only to customers that traded 240 times a year or more.
Other brokerage firms, including marquee names such as Charles Schwab Corp. and smaller players including Track Data Corp. of Brooklyn, N.Y., are slashing commissions in the hope of capitalizing on the market's recovery.

Analysts say that day trading correlates strongly with the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index, which is up 64% since hitting bottom last October. Charles Biderman, chief executive officer at TrimTabs.com Investment Research, says much of the quick buying and selling is focusing on the same sorts of technology and Internet stocks that populated accounts during the late 1990s. Starting in 2000, many of those investors lost fortunes, and many of the firms that egged them on have now shut their doors.

"There's no indication investors have learned," Mr. Biderman says. "This is just another version of online gambling."

Last year, Raymond Whitwer retired from his job as a general contractor in San Diego and started trading full time in his Ameritrade account, buying and selling shares as often as six to 10 times a day. Mr. Whitwer often darts in and out of volatile technology issues, such as Lucent Technologies Inc. and Adobe Systems Inc., shooting to make a $1 a share profit.

Monday, for example, Mr. Whitwer bought 2,000 shares of Research in Motion Ltd., the maker of the BlackBerry e-mail device, for $38 apiece and sold, within hours, for $38.50. "I don't hold anything," says Mr. Whitwer, 82 years old. "If I can make a dollar, I sell it."

Jeff Carney, president of Fidelity Personal Investments, which oversees the company's brokerage operations, says he expects lower commissions and other efforts to woo active traders will increase Fidelity's online-trading volume by 30% over the next year or so. Brokers are going after these customers because they are the most-profitable segment. Fidelity says more than 50% of its trades come from active traders. "This is a sweet spot in the marketplace for us," Mr. Carney says.

Mr. Carney and other Fidelity executives were quick to distance themselves from stock traffickers they consider to be day traders, often considered an unseemly term in the business. Fidelity officials defined day traders as those who trade thousands of times a year and often set up their own desks in a firm that specializes in accommodating quick market moves.

Fidelity will also offer cheap trades to big customers -- ones with at least $1 million in household assets -- even if they aren't heavy traders. Fidelity is guaranteeing it will execute trades within five seconds at the best available price. Online customers have long groused that they got poor execution at higher share prices in exchange for low commissions.

Fidelity's move, effective Wednesday, follows another recent salvo in the brokerage price war by Charles Schwab, its arch-rival. Also effective Wednesday, Schwab says it will offer its lowest commission, $14.95, to those trading more than 30 times a quarter, half the previous level of trading. Late last year, E*Trade cut its commission for those making nine or more trades a month to $9.99, with a nine-second guarantee to execute the trade.

Fidelity is by no means the cheapest. Brown/Co, the discount brokerage unit of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., charges only $5 a trade and, in June, said it would offer special perks to traders making at least 250 trades every six months. And, in July, Track Data said it would charge a half-penny a share commission, with a $1 minimum. The service is geared to traders who trade 100,000 shares a month, who also receive a waiver from a $99 a month software fee.

Not everyone in the business lauds the return of rapid online trading. Don Froude, president of discount broker Quick & Reilly, a unit of FleetBoston Financial Corp., said the company isn't advertising its lowest rate available to those who make 61 or more trades a month -- $12.95 -- because the company is trying to stress long-term investing.

Mr. Froude doesn't see courting the most-active traders as good business because he believes most investors will make money only by picking a prudent mix of stocks, bonds and cash and sticking it out. Having seen the sharp ups and downs of the late 1990s market, the firm has decided to focus on steadier investment clients. As for active trading, he says, "I don't see it as a viable long-term investment strategy."
即日平仓交易卷土重来

曾几何时，即日平仓交易曾是股市泡沫的特点之一。而目前这种行为又有卷土重来之势，网络经纪公司为博取那些快进快出的股市投资者的欢心，不惜大幅下调佣金比率。

富达投资(Fidelity Investments)等经纪公司在报告中披露，目前的成交量呈大幅上升势头，尽管仍然远远落后于3年前股市见顶时的水平。成交量的上升，经纪公司为获取业务而展开的竞争，充分表明了市场近来的反弹是如何强烈地影响著散户投资者以及那些欲博取他们欢心的经纪公司的行为。

即日平仓交易，即散户投资者通过网上交易快进快出地买卖股票，持股时间以日、小时、或分钟计。这种交易行为在投机盛行的股市泡沫时期声名狼藉。股市泡沫最终在2000年破裂。

确实，这一次经纪公司更愿意将这种交易行为称之为“积极交易”。这种新型快进快出交易的速度，总体上讲比不上上个世纪90年代末期的股市疯涨时期。

但佛吉尼亚州阿灵顿经纪公司Friedman, Billings, Ramsey资深分析师麦特?斯诺灵(Matt Snowling)认为，无论经纪公司是将其称之为即日平仓交易，还是冠以别的名称，通过网络进行的这种异常活跃的投资再度风行；并且由于这些从事即日平仓交易的投资者成为交易最活跃的客户，因而所有的经纪公司全都不遗余力地为争取这些客户而努力。

富达投资日前公布，8月份日均交易达到59,976笔，较上年同期增长16%。富达投资是全美最大的折扣经纪公司之一，也是最大的共同基金公司之一。富达投资的两家大型竞争对手－Ameritrade Holding Corp.和E*Trade Group Inc.，近来也双双宣布，9月份交易较8月份增长30%或30%以上。

富达投资昨天宣布，公司将针对那些每年至少交易120次的客户下调股票和期权交易的佣金比率，下调幅度接近50%。这些客户每笔交易仅需支付8美元的佣金。富达投资此前最优惠的佣金比率为14美元，并且只对那些每年交易240次及以上的客户适用。

其他经纪公司，包括嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp.)等大公司，以及纽约布鲁克林Track Data Corp.等小型公司在内，目前也纷纷大幅下调佣金比率，希望能够充分利用市场反弹的良机。

分析师认为，即日平仓交易行为与以科技股为主的那斯达克综合指数密切相关。与去年10月份的底部相比，那斯达克指数目前已上涨了64%。TrimTabs.com Investment Research首席执行长查尔斯?比德曼(Charles Biderman)表示，目前多数快进快出的交易行为都集中在90年代末期曾风行一时的科技股和网络股上。从2000年开始，许多网络股和科技股投资者的财富瞬间化为乌有，当初怂恿他们开户交易的经纪公司一度对他们关上了大门。

比德曼说，但目前并没有迹象表明，投资者从中吸取了经验教训。他表示，目前的即日平仓交易行为只是网上投机的翻版。

自去年从一家圣地牙哥总承包商退休以来，雷蒙德?惠特沃(Raymond Whitwer)就开始全身心投入到他在Ameritrade帐户的交易之中。他的日交易频率多达6至10次。惠特沃经常频繁进出大幅波动的科技股，如朗讯科技(Lucent Technologies Inc.)和奥多比系统(Adobe Systems)等，每股只要有1美元的利润他就会抛出。

例如，惠特沃昨日以每股38美元的价格买入了2,000股BlackBerry电子邮件设备的生产商--Research in Motion Ltd.的股票，并在数小时之内以每股38.50美元的价格抛出。今年已82岁高龄的惠特沃声称，他手中不持有任何股票，只要他能够赚1美元，他就会卖出。

富达个人投资业务机构Fidelity Personal Investments总裁杰夫?卡内(Jeff Carney)预计，佣金比率的下调以及为博取快进快出客户而作出的其他努力，将使得富达明年前后的网上交易量增长30%。卡内负责管理该公司的经纪业务。经纪公司千方百计地追逐这些客户，因为这部分业务的利润率水平最高。富达称，其交易的50%以上来自于快进快出交易。卡内说，这是公司在市场中最肥的一块业务。

卡内和富达其他管理人士的头脑非常敏锐，他们将自己与他们认为是从事即日平仓交易的股票掮客区分开来。股票掮客在业内常常带有贬义。富达管理人士对从事即日平仓交易者所下的定义是，每年交易频率高达数千次，并常常在那些专门适应市场波动的公司中开有他们自己的帐户。

富达还将向那些家庭资产至少达到100万美元的大客户提供低佣金的交易，即使这些大客户并不频繁操作也无妨。富达保证，将在5秒钟之内以所能得到的最佳价格执行交易。网上客户长期以来一直抱怨，经纪公司的交易执行情况不佳，他们为低佣金比率付出了股票价格过高的代价。

富达此举将从周三开始生效。在此之前，其主要竞争对手嘉信理财最近也在经纪公司的价格大战中采取了类似的举措。嘉信理财的新规定同样从周三开始生效。嘉信理财宣布，将向那些每季度交易30次以上的客户提供其最为优惠的佣金比率--每笔交易14.95美元。以前的规定为，每季度交易60次以上的客户才能享受这一优惠佣金比率。去年末，E*Trade将那些每月交易9次以上客户的佣金下调至9.99美元。

但富达并非佣金比率最低的经纪公司。摩根大通公司(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)旗下折扣经纪子公司Brown/Co每笔交易仅收5美元佣金。该公司还在6月份宣布，可能会向那些半年交易至少250次的交易者提供特别优惠。Track Data也在7月份宣布，将收取每股0.5美分的佣金，最低1美元起收。这项服务适用于那些每月交易10万股的客户，这些客户同时还免收每月99美元的软件费。

但并非所有业内人士都对这种快进快出的网上交易行为大唱赞歌。FleetBoston Financial Corp.旗下折扣经纪子公司Quick & Reilly总裁唐?佛雷德(Don Froude)表示，公司并未将其现有最低比率的佣金--每笔12美元，向那些每月交易60次或60次以上的客户大肆渲染，因为公司目前试图著重于长线投资。

佛雷德认为，博取快进快出客户的欢心并不是什么好业务，因为他相信多数投资者只有通过谨慎选择，确定由股票、债券和现金组成的一揽子投资组合，并忍耐到最后，才能够赚钱。亲眼目睹了股市在上个世纪90年代末期的大起大落，该公司一直决定，将其主要业务集中于稳健型投资客户。至于快进快出交易，佛雷德表示，他并不认为这是一项切实可行的长期投资策略。

美国股市今年仍有涨头

October May See More Selling, Yet Hopes Rise for Rest of Year

The third quarter got pretty frothy on Wall Street, and it wasn't until last week that investors finally blew some foam off the top, sending the Dow industrials down 3.4%.

Still, stocks have cleaned up in the quarter so far, with the Dow industrials sporting a gain of 3.6%, the Nasdaq composite rising more than 10% and the S&P 500-stock index moving up 2.3%, as the economy showed guarded signs of improvement and hopes for third-quarter earnings ran high.

While the market looked as though it would defy history with a stable September -- normally the worst month of the year on Wall Street -- investors have ducked for cover lately.

October could offer an upsetting second act: the month has seen some of the worst selloffs in history, including crashes in 1929 and 1987. While there's little suggestion on Wall Street that major indexes will retest lows, many are predicting a pullback from current levels, which some consider overvalued even after last week's selloff.

"I characterize this market as toppy," says Brian Bush, director of research at Stephens Inc. in Little Rock, Ark. "Much of the good news to date has already been factored into stock prices, and there's a fairly healthy level of anxiety, not only because of the runup the market's had but also because we're in September, which is historically not a good month, and October has historically been a scary month for investors."

Money managers often use the month to pocket their profits (and lock in bonuses) for their fiscal year, which ends in October. That could be especially true this year, as equity portfolio managers are eager to outperform the indexes on the first up year in three. The powerful paranoia about an October selloff often becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as investors scramble to get out ahead of competitors.

Also presenting a stumbling block in October: the lack of short interest. Short-selling levels fell 1.5% at the New York Stock Exchange in the month ended Sept. 15. Analysts say hedge funds got burned by shorting stocks, and when forced to unwind positions, helped bolster the rally. There could be much less of that additional support in coming months.

As investors try to determine how the fourth quarter will shake out, they have all the usual things to keep in mind -- earnings results, economic progress (or the lack thereof). Last week, two new issues pushed their way into the dialogue: the falling dollar and rising oil prices.

Oil Prices Take High Road, Dollar Takes Low

On Wednesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries voted to cut production, sending oil prices up about 4% to $28.24 for the day. Fears about how the economy will deal with that roadblock helped contribute to a big market selloff, one that pushed the Nasdaq composite down more than 3%, its biggest drop since March. The Dow industrials suffered their biggest point loss since May. The blue-chip average suffered two days of triple-point declines last week.

Judging by the market's reaction, you'd think the increase in oil prices was a very, very big deal.

Some say not.

"I think that's short-term noise. I think we'll see oil go back up a little bit, but not so rapidly or so much that it chokes off the economy," said James Luke, a portfolio manager for BB&T Asset Management in Raleigh, N.C.

Oil prices remain well below where they were a year ago, by about 7%. Anthony Chan, managing director and chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors, says the big declines in oil prices are for now a "thing of the past," but that price increases won't be fast, or furious. He expects higher oil prices to help make for a more modestly expanding economy in 2004, growing by 3.5% or 3.75%.
While oil prices climbed last week, the dollar did the exact opposite after the G7 called for more flexible exchange rates, sending the dollar to a three-year low against the Japanese yen. The dollar's weakening provided yet another reason for an equities exodus, raising fears that foreign investors might pull out of U.S.-denominated investments. Some think worries are overblown.

Gail Dudack, chief investment strategist at SunGard, noted that the trade-weighted dollar recently stood at about $94, above its second-quarter low of $92.60 but well off last September's level of $107.95, adding that "second quarter earnings were helped by dollar weakness, and now it appears that the third quarter will see a boost as well."

"Will this yen rally shake Japanese holders into selling U.S. securities? This is a risk," she wrote in a research note. "But keep in mind that 10-year Japanese government bonds yield 1.2%." Yields on the U.S. 10-year note stood at 4% Friday.

Meanwhile, the weaker dollar could be a boon for big multinationals with a larger-than-average percentage of revenue from outside the U.S. According to Mr. Chan, about 26% of total U.S. profits are generated overseas. When the dollar was falling from the mid-'80s to the mid-'90s, real exports rose by an annualized 8.5%, he added.

Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Ron Hill recently screened for stocks with above-average foreign exposure, significant correlation with the dollar and improving profit estimate revisions. The picks -- only 19 of 1,500 stocks screened -- were as diverse as Black & Decker, Johnson & Johnson, Kellogg, and Bausch & Lomb.

Speaking of Profits…

Investor focus will once again turn to earnings in coming weeks. And they're expected to shine, with S&P 500 earnings climbing nearly 15%, according to First Call. With the unusually quiet preannouncement season behind us, analysts think companies will beat estimates by a bigger margin than usual.

Of course, investors will be more keen on hearing companies' outlooks for upcoming quarters. If they sound less than hopeful, stocks -- which many still consider overvalued at about 18 times earnings -- could be in for a bloodbath.

Investors are looking to corporations and economic data that point to self-sustaining growth (which means more hiring, instead of just productivity gains).

Even if the market experiences further pullback in October, some have high hopes for the rest of the year and into 2004. Markets tend to rally as the year draws to a close on optimism about profit and economic growth for the New Year. And, this year's stock gains are less robust than usual in market recoveries.

Eric Bjorgen, analyst for The Leuthold Group in Minneapolis, says data going back to 1900 show that in the first 12 months of a recovery, gains average about 47% for the S&P 500 and 57% for the Nasdaq composite. In the second year of a recovery, gains average about 10% for the broad market.

From the bear market low on Oct. 9, the S&P is currently up 28%. If the index performs in line with past recoveries, Mr. Bjorgen says, it should approach 1100 by the end of the year -- a 10% increase from its current level.
美国股市今年仍有涨头

第三季度华尔街股市一路飙升，直到上周投资者打碎了部分泡沫，将道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数推低3.4%。

不过，第三季度目前为止各主要指数走势仍然强劲，道琼斯指数涨3.6%，那斯达克综合指数涨幅超过10%，标准普尔500指数涨2.3%，原因是经济复苏初现端倪，投资者对第三季度公司业绩也寄予厚望。

9月份向来是华尔街股市走势最糟糕的一个月，但看起来今年的9月份要凭借稳定的表现改写历史。不过，最近投资者似乎在离场观望。

10月份的股市表现可能再度令人沮丧。10月份曾经历过历史上最为沉重的几次抛售，例如1929年和1987年的股市大崩盘。虽然华尔街分析师并未预计股市将再次下探底部，但许多人认为股市将从现有水平回落，因为一些投资者认为即便上周出现抛售，但股市的整体估价仍然偏高。

Stephens Inc的研究主管布莱恩?布什(Brian Bush)就认为股市目前定价偏高。目前为止的大部分利好消息已经被股市所消化，投资者顾虑重重，这不仅因为股市涨幅已经相当可观，而且当前正处于往年走势并不是很好的9月份。另外，马上到来的10月份曾经给投资者带来过心惊肉跳的经历。

由于资产管理公司的财政年度于10月份结束，因此基金经理为了突出自己的业绩经常在10月份采取锁定利润的做法。今年的情况可能尤为如此，因为股票投资组合基金经理都渴望在大市3年来首次上涨的情况下以超越股指的表现，为自己的业绩提交一份满意的答卷。他们对于10月份出现抛售的偏执预期经常会变成一种自我实现的预言，因为投资者会争先恐后地出局。

预示10月份股市疲软的另一个因素是：缺少空头头寸。截至9月15日的30天中，纽约证交所的卖空头寸减少了1.5%。分析师们说，对冲基金因为作空股票蒙受了巨大的损失，它们被迫平仓的操作对本轮上涨行情起到了推波助澜的作用。但在接下来的几个月中，这种额外的支撑可能要少很多。

在投资者试图琢磨股市将以何种走势进入第四季度之际，他们脑海里始终惦记著公司业绩、经济状况等常规因素。但上周美元下跌和油价飙升也成了他们的谈论话题。

油价一路飙升，美元跌势不止

上周三，石油输出国组织(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)削减日产量的决定把当天油价推高了约4%，至每桶28.24美元。市场开始担心经济能否克服油价上涨的负面影响，并由此引发了股市的大规模抛售。在强大的抛盘压力下，那斯达克综合指数跌幅超过3%，为3月份以来的最大跌幅。道琼斯指数点数跌幅之大创下5月份以来之最。上周道琼斯指数有两个交易日的跌幅超过100点。

从市场的反应来看，有人肯定会认为油价的飙升将产生长远、严重的影响。

但有人并不这样看。

BB&T Asset Management的投资组合经理詹姆士?路克(James Luke)称，油价上涨只不过是一个短期问题而已。他认为油价将小幅回升，但上涨的速度和程度尚不足以妨碍经济的发展。

目前的油价比上年同期低7%左右。Banc One Investment Advisors的执行董事兼首席经济学家安东尼?尚(Anthony Chan)称，油价大幅下跌已成为历史，但油价的上扬不会呈现迅猛之势。他预计油价的上扬将使2004年的经济以一种更为温和的速度增长，增速将为3.5%或3.75%。

就在上周油价飙升之际，美元却骤然滑落。七大工业国(Group Of Seven G7)会议呼吁各国放宽汇率的主张导致美元兑日圆跌至3年低点。美元的走软为投资者把资金撤离股市提供了另一个理由，因为他们担心外国投资者可能会把资金从美元资产中撤出。但也有人认为这种担心是杞人忧天。

SunGard的首席投资策略师盖尔?杜达珂(Gail Dudack)指出，贸易加权美元最近停留在94美元附近，高于第二季度时92.60美元的低点，但远远低于9月份107.95美元的水平。她认为第二季度公司业绩受到弱势美元的推动，从第三季度的情况来看，这种提振作用还会得到延续。

她在研究报告中这样写道，日圆的升势会动摇日本投资者的信心，促使他们卖出以美元计价的证券吗？这种可能性的确存在。但不要忘记这一点：截至上周五，10年期日本国债的收益率仅有1.2%，而10年期美国国债的收益率却高达4%。

与此同时，对于那些海外收入占总收入的比例超过平均水平的跨国企业来说，美元的贬值对他们的业绩会起到推动作用。据安东尼?尚透露，美国企业界约有26%的利润来自于海外收入。他补充说，回顾上个世纪80年代中期至90年代中期的历史可以看出，美元当时的下跌推动美国的实际出口以8.5%的年增幅快速增长。

Brown Brothers Harriman分析师希尔(Ron Hill)最近依据以下标准选股：海外收入超过平均水平、与美元走势有密切关系、上调收益预期等。他从1,500只股票中筛选出19只股票。这些个股具体有：Black & Decker、强生(Johnson & Johnson)、凯洛格(Kellogg)、博士伦(Bausch & Lomb)，他们所从事的行业不尽相同。

接下来的几周，公司业绩将再次吸引投资者的目光。预计公司业绩将闪亮登场，据First Call预计，标准普尔500指数成份股收益的平均增幅将接近15%。由于已经平安无事地度过了最新收益预期发布期，分析师认为上市公司业绩强于预期的程度将超过以往。

当然，投资者更加关注的是公司对今后几个季度发布的收益预期。由于很多人认为市场目前18倍左右的本益比仍然偏高，因此如果公司收益预期不够理想的话，股市可能会遭到沉重打击。

投资者正在关注公司和经济数据，看这些数据是否意味著经济在持续增长，即在生产率提高的同时就业机会也在增加。

即便是市场在10月份进一步回调，但仍有人士对今年剩余时间以及2004年年初的市场表现寄予厚望。每当年末临近时，市场对新一年的公司业绩和经济增长充满乐观情绪，市场在这种乐观情绪的感染之下通常会出现反弹。但今年股市的涨幅不会像往年市场复苏时那样的强劲。

The Leuthold Grou的分析师爱里克?比约根(Eric Bjorgen)表示，从追溯至1900年的数据来看，市场复苏的前12个月，标准普尔500指数的平均涨幅约为47%，那斯达克综合指数的涨幅为57%。在市场复苏的第二年间，大盘股指的平均涨幅约为10%。

从去年10月9日创下熊市低点到现在为止，标准普尔500指数涨幅达到28%。比约根说，该指数的表现若同历史上的反弹行情相吻合，那么这意味著该指数年底之前应涨至1100点，较目前水平上涨10%。

美国股市：难忘十月

No Reason to Say 'Eeek,' So Far


It's October, a month when some people's thoughts turn to witches, goblins ... and stock-market declines.

Even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up nearly 300 points in the first three days of this month, some experienced investors begin biting their nails at this time of year. They think back to October 1929, when stocks crashed, and to October 1987, when they crashed again, as well as to some smaller but still-startling October declines in other years. Sure, the worriers say, it is a little emotional. But that doesn't make them much more comfortable, especially given their jitters about corporate profits and the strength of the economy.

"A lot of people are nervous," says David Briggs, head of stock trading at Pittsburgh mutual-fund group Federated Investors. "I had it a little, too," he admits, pointing out that he recently wrote a market commentary acknowledging his "Octoberphobia."

A look at market history, it should be noted, indicates that October has seen more stock gains than declines. It is in September that stocks have been most likely to decline; they fell this September. Lately, in fact, October has been a month for big rallies, as investors become (rightly or wrongly) hopeful about stock performance in the coming year. Since 1998, stocks have shown gains in every October -- sometimes big ones.

Many investors, in fact, dismiss October worries as goofy. They point out that there are a lot of differences between 1987, the year of the most-recent crash, and now -- most prominently interest rates. In 1987, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was rising fast and hit 10% right before the crash, contributing to the pressure on stocks. Now, it is hovering around 5%, and the 10-year note, which is now the benchmark, is yielding just over 4%.

But that hasn't stopped some people from passing around stock charts showing surprising parallels between the patterns for the current year and for 1987. One of the charts bears the artistic name "Three Peaks and the Domed House," because the pattern sort of looks like that.

Market-research group Ned Davis Research in Venice, Fla., even decided to publish an analysis of the "Three Peaks and the Domed House" chart. Its conclusion: The pattern (showing three jumps in the shape of inverted V's, a more gradual topping out and then, in 1987, a sharp drop) clearly can be seen both this year and in 1987. Of course, this year's chart doesn't include the drop, and the two years are sharply different in other ways.

Mr. Briggs says he doesn't expect a crash, and he has advised money managers at Federated not to sell their stock positions. But he has suggested they consider rotating some money into their less-jumpy stocks for a while, just in case of volatility -- especially given that quarterly earnings reports are on the horizon.

"My guess is that the market probably is going to be choppy into the early part of November," Mr. Briggs says.
Still, there is no denying that, when crashes have come, it has tended to be in October. Of the 20 biggest one-day percentage drops in the Dow industrials, eight have come in October. These include the two-day crash of 1929; the 1987 crash; an 8% plunge one week after the 1987 crash; the "echo" or "minicrash" of October 1989; and a 7% plunge in October 1997. Of the 10 biggest drops, half were in October, including the two major crashes.

Is that just a coincidence? Perhaps. But there may be reasons for October to be dangerous. In October, people are settling in after summer vacations. Governments are focusing on policy changes. Both governments and companies are looking ahead to the future, sometimes trying to accomplish things before year's end. If they err, the errors sometimes occur in the fall.

This year, as was the case in 1987, the U.S. has become embroiled in a shoving match with foreign countries over currency issues. In 1987, the dollar was near a seven-year low against the mark. Now, the dollar is near a three-year low against the yen.

"I don't see a replay of '87," says Henry Herrmann, chief investment officer at mutual-fund group Waddell & Reed in Overland Park, Kan. "But if I could be really wrong, it would be because of the currency market. It is in nobody's best interest for the dollar to have a big decline."

But he, Mr. Briggs and others point out that, in many ways, the current situation is different.

Now, as in 1987, stocks are sitting on big gains. But in 1987, the Dow industrials had more than tripled from their bottom in 1982. This time, they are up 31% from their low, which occurred just one year ago.

Then, investors were worried about inflation and an overheating economy, and both gold prices and interest rates were rising. Now, gold is up, but interest rates remain low and inflation fears are almost nonexistent.

Then, computer-driven selling contributed to the losses. Today, there still is plenty of computer-driven trading, though traders insist it is more diverse and less prone to provoking a crash.

Another possible parallel is something analysts call investor sentiment. In 1987, investors had become overoptimistic after five years of stock gains. Among investment-newsletter writers who expressed a bullish or bearish view, about 75% were bullish by August 1987, according to a survey by a publication called Investors Intelligence in New Rochelle, N.Y. (Bullishness actually declined after that.) Today, the survey shows bullishness back to the 1987 level: 74%.

"There is a lot of risk out there," says Michael Burke, editor of Investors Intelligence. "Stock valuations are still very high, and everybody is taking an optimistic spin on things." Heavy optimism can be bad for stocks, because it means people have moved a large percentage of available money into stocks and that they are susceptible to disappointment, which would cause them to sell.

But investment advisers say that many ordinary investors still have vivid memories of the bear market and aren't as upbeat as the newsletter writers seem to be. Options selling also indicates a high level of nervousness. On that score as well, the feeling is that the investment climate still isn't as extreme as it was in 1987.

"You don't have as much of a manic situation as in '87," says Tim Hayes, global stock strategist at Ned Davis Research. He sees closer parallels between the mood in 1987 and that during the stock bubble of the late 1990s, he says. "Are we headed for a crash? I just don't see the evidence of that," Mr. Hayes says.

After rising almost 200 points Wednesday, the first trading day in October, the Dow industrials finished the week up 259.23 points, or 2.8%, at 9572.31 -- including a gain of 84.51 points, or 0.9%, on Friday. Counting just the three days of October, the Dow has risen 297.25 points.

Even some analysts who expect a stock pullback say they doubt we will see a crash.

"October is a month where we have had big breaks in the past. Anybody who has been around knows that," says Phil Roth, chief technical market analyst at New York brokerage firm Miller Tabak. "If you get the stock market and the bond market and the dollar down, that can develop into a panicky situation, but that isn't happening."

He adds, "The pattern since June looks like a top to me -- not a disastrous top, but a top. I think there is more weakness ahead, and then a buying point."

Mark Twain, who often complained of his losses in the stock market (he was a much better writer than investor), put it this way in a famous quotation: "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."

Friday's Market Activity

Technology issues led the market, while blue-chip shares advanced in broad buying sparked by the first rise in U.S. payrolls since January.

Hewlett-Packard jumped 78 cents, or 4%, to $20.30, after saying it is launching a marketing campaign targeting customers of Sun Microsystems. Nasdaq-traded Sun, which warned of an unexpected quarterly loss earlier in the week, gained 11 cents, or 3.4%, to 3.31.

Adtran (Nasdaq), a supplier of transmission products to the telecommunications industry, advanced 9.15, or 14%, to 72.64, after saying it expects third-quarter earnings of between 41 cents and 42 cents a share, above analysts' target of 36 cents. The company's fourth-quarter forecast also exceeded Wall Street's expectation.

3M rose 1.75, or 2.5%, to 73.03, after Lehman Brothers upgraded the stock to "overweight" from "equal weight," saying the company could deliver earnings-per-share growth of between 12% and 14% in 2004. Lehman raised its per-share earnings target to $3.45 from $3.35.

Traders say the market is vulnerable to losing some ground this week as investors take profits after last week's gains. Companies will begin posting quarterly earnings results, with Alcoa scheduled to report Tuesday. Alcoa climbed 1.02, or 3.8%, to 28.15.

AT&T fell 56 cents, or 2.7%, to 20.24, after Merrill Lynch said uncertainties in the company's consumer and enterprise-business segments will make it hard to attract buyers, despite speculation AT&T could be ripe for acquisition.

After a morning halt, Biovail fell 6.67, or 18%, to 31.10, as the drug company lowered its third-quarter revenue target, in large part because of a traffic accident involving a truck carrying a large shipment of its antidepressant drug Wellbutrin XL.

The job report led shares of staffing companies higher. Monster Worldwide (Nasdaq) rose 2.61, or 10%, to 28.50; Robert Half International gained 2.14, or 11%, to 21.60; and Manpower advanced 2.43, or 6.4%, to 40.23.
美国股市：难忘十月

又是一个十月，一些人不禁想到：股市又要跌了。

今年十月的头3天，道琼斯指数累计已上涨了将近300点。尽管如此，回想起1929年、1987年十月发生的股市崩盘，和其他几个年份里虽然规模稍小但依然令人后怕的下跌情形，一到每年的这个时候，一些富有经验的投资者还是不免感到神经紧张。

这种情绪似乎是有些多愁善感。但实际情况确实无法让他们感到安慰，特别是在公司利润和经济复苏力度都不理想的情况下。

匹兹堡一家共同基金集团Federated Investors股票交易负责人布瑞格斯(David Briggs)说，许多人感到提心吊胆。即便是他自己，在最近撰写的一篇市场评论中也承认自己染上了“十月恐惧症”。

回顾历史上的市场行情，值得注意的是十月出现的上涨行情其实多于下跌。最有可能出现下跌的月份不是十月，而是九月。在刚刚过去的这个九月，股市就跌了。事实上，近年来，在十月倒是常常会因投资者对未来一年的股市满怀希望而有大幅反弹的行情出现（他们的愿望有时能够成为现实，有时也会落空）。1998年以来，每逢十月股市都会上涨，涨幅有时还颇为可观。

实际上，许多投资者都认为对十月的担心纯属多虑。他们指出，目前的情况与1987年的最近一次崩盘出现时，有这样那样种种差别。其中最显著的是利率方面的差别。1987年，30年期美国国债收益率迅速上升，在崩盘之际刚好达到10%，从而给股市带来了压力。而当前美国国债的收益率一直徘徊在5%左右，基准10年期美国国债的收益率更是刚刚达到4%。

但一些人还是在传递著显示今年与1987年有惊人相似之处的股市图表。有一张图表更是起了个艺术化的名称：“三个顶部与圆形屋”(Three Peaks and the Domed House)，原因是目前股市的形态与此类似。

市场研究机构Ned Davis Research甚至准备出版对“三个顶部与圆形屋”的分析报告。它的结论是：今年和1987年都明显出现了这种形态（三个V形反弹，随之逐步从高点回落，然后在1987年出现了大幅下挫）。当然，今年的图表中还没有包括这次下挫，而且这两年在其他许多方面有明显不同。

布瑞格斯预计股市不会崩盘，并建议Federated的基金经理不要卖出其股票头寸。但他也建议考虑将部分资金暂时投入波动较小的股票中，以防止出现剧烈波动，尤其是在即将公布季度收益的时期。

布瑞格斯说，他认为市场可能在11月上旬前呈震荡走势。

但不可否认的是，许多崩盘都发生在十月。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数历史上20个最大的单日跌幅中，有8个发生在十月。这其中包括1929年连续两天的暴跌；1987年的大跌；1987年崩盘后一周下跌8%；1989年10月的下挫；及1997年下跌7%。在前10个最大的单日跌幅中，有一半发生在十月，其中包括两次最主要的崩盘。

这难道只是巧合吗？也许。但10月份之所以危险可能也存在一些原因。10月份人们已从假期中安定下来，政府关注于政策调整。政府和公司都在著眼未来，有时还希望在年底前能解决一些问题。如果其中出现失误，有时就会导致股市下跌。

今年同1987年的情形一样，美国与部分国家再次陷入有关汇率问题的争论之中。1987年时，美元兑德国马克达到了近7年的低点。现在美元兑日圆达到了近3年来的低点。

共同基金Waddell & Reed的首席投资长赫曼(Henry Herrmann)说，他预计87年的一幕不会重现。但他、布瑞格斯及其他人都指出，目前的情况在许多方面有所不同。

同1987年一样，当前的股市也是涨幅巨大。但在1987年，道琼斯指数是1982年低点的3倍以上，此番股指仅比一年前的低点上涨了31%。当时，投资者担心通货膨胀和经济过热，金价和利率均不断走高。而现在，金价虽在走高，但利率却维持在低位，对通货膨胀的担忧也基本上不存在。

当时，程式卖盘导致了大盘的下跌。目前，尽管仍有许多程式交易，但交易员认为已经非常分散，不易导致市场崩盘。

另一个类似的地方是分析师所称的投资者人气。1987年时，在连续5年上涨后，投资者变得过于乐观。据Investors Intelligence所做的调查，在表达看涨或看跌的投资通讯作者中，1987年8月有约75%的人看涨股市（看涨股市的比例从那以后就开始降低）。现在的调查显示，看涨股市的人又回到了1987年时74%的水平。

投资顾问称，许多普通投资者对熊市仍记忆犹新，并未像投资通讯的作者那样持乐观态度。期权卖盘也表明了市场的紧张程度仍然较高。从这点来看，给人的感觉是投资人气并不像1987年那样膨胀。

Ned Davis Research的全球股票策略师海斯(Tim Hayes)说，他认为1987年的市场情绪与90年代末时非常接近，并未看到股市正在走向崩盘的迹象。

在上周三（十月的第一个交易日）上涨约200点后，道琼斯指数上周共上涨259.23点，收于9572.31点，涨幅2.8%，其中包括上周五上涨的84.51点。10月份的前3天，股市共上涨了297.25点。

即使是预计将出现回调的部分分析师也对将发生崩盘持怀疑态度。纽约经纪公司Miller Tabak的技术分析师罗斯(Phil Roth)说，10月份在过去一直是一个充满大好机会的月份，每个曾身临其境的人都知道这点。

美国著名小说家马克?吐温(Mark Twain)经常抱怨他在股市中的巨额亏损（他是一个优秀的作家，但不是一个优秀的投资者），因此才有了这样一段名言：“10月，对投机来说显得特别危险；同样危险的其他月份是7月、9月、4月、11月、5月、3月、6月、12月、8月和2月。”

业绩稳健股成为市场宠儿 Suddenly, Investors Find Solid Stocks All the Rage


The stock market once again appears to be under adult supervision.

This year's impressive climb for stocks has been dominated by a startling rise for some of the market's flimsiest and most untested companies, including many thought to be on their last legs just 11 months ago. As investors rediscovered their appetite for risk, they seemed more willing to roll the dice on companies with clouded prospects, including tech and telecom shares.

But there are signs that that has begun to change in recent weeks, and investors who miss the shift could see their gains vaporized while missing out on the next leg up in the bull market.

"We're really in the greed-management stage right now," says Rich Steinberg of Steinberg Global Asset Management, who has been selling shares of his big winners and buying recent market laggards.

With some large investors hoping to lock in their profits, the focus for the first time in more than a year appears to be shifting to solid, established, profitable companies. Many savvy investors bet the switch will continue in the months ahead, with more stable stocks, like dividend-paying companies, doing the best, and many of the biggest gainers of the year in for a difficult autumn.

Why the change? In part because the market has hit a wall, with the Nasdaq down 6.2% since Sept. 18 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 3.6% amid a round of profit-taking and hand-wringing by investors. In fact, the Nasdaq Composite Index had its biggest weekly decline since April 2002. New worries are surfacing that this year's run-up -- particularly in the dicier corners of the market -- won't be matched by better profits.

As those concerns have settled in, high dividend-paying stocks, which have lagged behind the broader market over the past year, finally have matched the performance of low- and nondividend paying stocks.

One dividend-paying stock that some investors think will do well if the market turns tough on techs and other highfliers: ExxonMobil Corp., which has outperformed all other Dow stocks lately and could have more room to rise as energy prices stay strong. 3M Co. also could buck an otherwise rough market, some investors say, citing analyst upgrades and a recent spike in prices even as the overall market weakened.

That is a big shift. For the year, the high-yielding stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index -- those that yield more than the index's yield of 1.61% -- have returned just 8.8%, compared to 25.7% for the low and no-yielding names.

But over the past four weeks, the high-yielding stocks have actually beaten the low-yielders, albeit by a tiny amount. On a market cap weighted basis, the high-yielding names are up 0.4% while the low-yielding companies are up just 0.36%.

Ironically, dividend payers have fallen behind in a year when dividends have gotten more attention than they had in years, a consequence of the tax cut that slashed rates on dividends by half for many taxpayers.

With the market appearing to have stalled, more-mature dividend payers are likely to continue to catch up to their more-volatile cousins, which tend to lead during a fast-rising market.

While hundreds of companies raised their dividends earlier this year, the wave of increases slowed considerably in the past two months. Then last week dividends took the stage again when homebuilder Lennar Corp. jacked up its payout from five cents a year to $1, a 1,900% jump, and McDonald's Corp. raised its dividend by 70% from 23.5 cents to 40 cents a year. Both stocks jumped on the news, with McDonald's bucking the trend on Wednesday's 150-point down day.

The next day investors turned their wrath on Eastman Kodak Co. when it slashed its dividend by 72% to 50 cents from $1.80, sending the photo company's shares down nearly 18%.

Dividend increases should pick up again when third-quarter-earnings season begins in early October and then again at the end of the year, says Howard Silverblatt, an analyst at Standard & Poor's. "We're going to go through another wave," of dividend increases, he predicts.

Specifically, analysts are eyeing energy companies, such as ChevronTexaco Corp. and Royal Dutch Petroleum Co., and cash-rich banks like Citigroup Inc., which has been a strong recent performer. Industrial companies, including Great Lakes Chemical Corp., which has lots of free cash flow relative to its stock price, and consumer-goods maker Procter & Gamble Co., which is nearly flat over the past year, but up nearly 6% in the past four weeks, also should do well, while expensive tech stocks could hit a wall. One example: Sonus Networks Inc., a highflying telecom company that many hedge funds say has climbed too far, too fast, and has fallen more than 15% in the last week. Even tech giant Intel Corp. is down 6% since the market peaked earlier this month.

Already, some of the money managers who rode the rally are paring back their more-expensive stocks. Mr. Steinberg of Steinberg Global Asset Management in Boca Raton, Fla., has sold shares in Alcoa Inc., McDonald's, Citigroup and Charles Schwab Corp. recently and bought shares in energy companies like ChevronTexaco, seeking strong earnings and dividends. "We're going to go back to people getting total return with the dividend," he says, adding that the market's most volatile stocks are poised for a fall.

At the current valuations of some companies, earnings will need to be absolutely fabulous for the stocks to keep rising. "You're going to start to see companies meet expectations, but they're not going to blow out the quarter and people will sell on the news, that will cause the rotation back to reality," Mr. Steinberg says.

One example: Juniper Networks Inc., which earned a total of just five cents a share in the first two quarters of this year, hit $18 on Sept. 4, up from a little more than $4 last October, on high hopes for the future. But now it is down to $15 and could go lower if investors continue to focus on companies with stellar current earnings, rather than those promising outsize profits way down the road.

In some cases there is no logic behind one stock's rise and another's stall, but some money managers are dumping what has gone up and seeking names that have been left behind. John Schneider , a money manager with Pimco Equity Advisors, is selling some of his best performers, including copper producer Phelps Dodge Corp., which is up nearly 50% this year. In exchange, he bought paper-and-timber producer Bowater Inc., which has lagged behind the market. Both companies will gain from an economic rebound, but Phelps Dodge could be vulnerable, he says.
业绩稳健股成为市场宠儿

成熟稳健的股票似乎已再度开始主导市场。

今年股市令人印象深刻的几次上涨大多发生在那些最微不足道、最未经考验的公司身上，而其中许多公司仅在11个月之前还被认为已经濒临绝境。当投资者对风险的兴趣再度燃起，他们似乎更愿意将赌注押在那些前景不甚乐观的公司上面，其中甚至包括科技股和电信股。

但最近几周有迹象表明这种趋势开始发生变化。如果不能觉察到这种变化，投资者将错过下一次牛市行情，眼睁睁看著他们已经获得的利润被蒸发得一乾二净。

Steinberg Global Asset Management的斯泰因贝格(Rich Steinberg)卖掉了大幅上涨的股票，买进一些近来涨势滞后的股票。

随著某些大投资者希望锁定利润，股市重心一年多以来首次转向稳健、口碑好的赢利公司。许多精明的投资者预言未来几个月这种趋势还将继续，派息公司等股价稳定的股票将表现最佳，而许多今年涨幅最大的股票秋天的日子将不太好过。

为什么会出现这种转变呢？部分原因是股市碰到一定阻力。9月18日至今，在投资者的获利回吐和绝望之中，那斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数分别下跌6.2%和3.6%。事实上，这是2002年4月以来那斯达克综合指数最大的当周涨幅。开始有人担心今年走势较好的股票--特别是投资者孤注一掷的股票--可能不会有太大的获利。

在这样的忧虑情绪之中，去年涨势滞后于大盘的高派息股票的表现终于追上了低派息或不派息的股票。

某些投资者认为，如果科技股和其他高价股走势不好，有一只派息股票将会表现不错，它就是埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp., XOM)。该股最近走势好于道琼斯指数所有其他成份股。鉴于能源价格持续居高不下，该股还会有更大的上涨空间。某些投资者认为，3M公司(3M Co., MMM)也可能逆市上扬，原因是分析师上调该股评级，而且大市走软的时候3M仍一枝独秀。

这是一个很大的转变。今年，标准普尔500指数成份股的平均派息率为1.61%，其中高派息率股票的股权回报率为为8.8%，而低派息率或无派息的股票股权回报率竟高达25.7%。

但是，在过去的4周中，高派息的股票事实上已经战胜了低派息率的股票，虽然只是略胜一筹。从市值上看，高派息股票市值增长了0.4%，而低派息股票市值仅仅增长了0.36%。

颇具嘲讽意味的是，今年的投资者比过去更加重视股息，因为根据最新的减税法案，许多投资者的股息所得税率减少了一半。派息公司偏偏在这个时候落在了后面。

尽管今年早些时候数百家公司提高了股息，但过去两个月提高股息的势头却大幅放缓。上周，派息再次成为市场热点。Lennar Corp.年派息从5美分提高到1美元，增加了1,900%；麦当劳(McDonald's Corp., MCD)将年股息从23.5美分提高到40美分，增幅70%。消息公布后，两只股票双双上扬，麦当劳在周三股指下跌150点的情况下逆市上涨。

第二天，伊士曼-柯达公司(Eastman Kodak Co., EK)将股息由1.80美元削减到50美分，减幅达72%。气愤的投资者纷纷抛出该股，使其股价下跌近18%。

标准普尔的分析师希佛布朗(Howard Silverblatt)指出，10月初和今年年底的第三、四季度收益季节，提高股息的现象还将再次增多。他预计，届时将有新一轮的增加派息活动。

分析师尤其看好雪佛龙德士古(ChevronTexaco Corp., CVX)和英荷皇家石油公司(Royal Dutch Petroleum)等能源公司，以及股价最近走高的花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)等现金流丰富的银行。相当于股价来说自由现金流较为丰富的Great Lakes Chemical Corp.等工业股，以及去年表现平平但过去4周几乎上涨6%的消费品生产商宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble Co., PG, 又名:宝硷公司)都应该涨势不错。股价较高的科技股可能将受到挫折。一个例子就是Sonus Networks。许多对冲基金公司指出，该股上涨幅度过高、涨速过快，上周该股跌幅果然超过15%。甚至连科技巨头英特尔(Intel Corp.)也从本月早些时候市场冲高回落以来，下跌了6%。

某些投资经理已经开始利用股市上涨的时机减持某些股价更高的股票。Steinberg Global Asset Management的斯泰因贝格最近卖出了美国铝业公司(Alcoa Inc., AA)、麦当劳、花旗集团和嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp., SCH)的股票，买进收益和股息都很强劲的雪佛龙德士古等能源股。他指出，股价波动最大的股票将会下跌。

从某些公司目前价值来看，股价若要保持上涨需要有相当可观的收益作支持。

一个例证就是Juniper Networks Inc.。该公司今年前两个季度每股收益仅为5美分，但因其前景向好，股价从去年10月的4美元多一点上涨至9月4日的18美元。但该股目前跌至15美元，可能还会继续下跌。

有的时候，股价上涨或停顿没有道理可讲，但某些投资经理是在进行获利回吐，买进涨势滞后的股票。Pimco Equity Advisors经理施奈德(John Schneider)正在抛售走势最佳的股票，其中包括黄铜制造商费尔普斯-道奇(Phelps Dodge Corp., PD)，该股今年几乎上涨50%。同时，他买进了生产商Bowater Inc.的股票，该股走势落后于大盘。施奈德指出，两家公司都可能受益于经济反弹，但费尔普斯-道奇可能会稍显脆弱一些。