AirTran May Get Lift as JetBlue
Heals Blow to Its Public Image
With the airline industry in the midst of a grinding downturn, two scrappy companies have stood out: JetBlue Airways, with a cool New York brand and buzz over its 24 channels of satellite television at every seat, and AirTran Holdings Inc., the parent of AirTran Airways, a simple carrier little known outside the Southeast.
Both AirTran and JetBlue are profitable and taking big advantage of the unprofitable major carriers. And both have seen their share prices soar this year. Shares of AirTran, based in Orlando, Fla., have more than tripled since the beginning of the year, despite a slight pullback in the past week. The stock rose Monday to $16.25, up 63 cents, or 4%, in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Shares of JetBlue, which went public in 2002, have more than doubled in price since the beginning of the year, closing Monday at $62.13, up $2.87, or 4.8%, at 4 p.m. on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
But AirTran may deserve more of the investors' attention at least partly due to JetBlue's internal problems. In a blow to a carefully crafted public image, JetBlue has admitted sharing passenger records with a Pentagon contractor working on a security project. JetBlue issued an apology to fliers, conceding that disclosing the data was a "mistake." So far, the company says it hasn't noticed a sudden decline in bookings as a result of the fury -- and analysts aren't convinced the incident will dent the business or the stock.
But it could help shift some investor focus to AirTran, which until recent years was best known for a 1996 crash in the Everglades when it flew under the name ValuJet. (AirTran says it doesn't share passenger data with third parties.)
Part of AirTran's appeal is a price-to-earnings ratio of 23, which, while high, is below JetBlue's lofty ratio of 47. AirTran's ratio is particularly surprising, given the company's shares started the year at about $4 each.
William McVail, a portfolio manager with Turner Investment Partners in Berwyn, Pa., who bought AirTran shares at the beginning of the year and added to his position in June, says new jets ordered by AirTran will help the carrier strengthen its foray into the Caribbean and other destinations.
The airline history, of course, is rife with examples of profitable discount carriers that garnered lots of attention but were later squashed when major carriers moved onto their turf and undercut their fares. But the airline downturn has left such leaders seriously weakened, giving smaller, low-cost carriers such as JetBlue and AirTran opportunity for rapid growth. AirTran, which operates a fleet of 71 planes serving 43 cities, is expected to report its sixth consecutive quarterly profit next month. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call expect the company to report net income of 20 cents a share for the third quarter, up from a penny a share a year earlier.
AirTran's strategy is to combine the most effective elements of Southwest Airlines' approach with the traditional hub-and-spoke system of the big-name carriers. Like Southwest, it offers low fares, turns its planes around quickly and offers a simple fare structure to fliers. It also flies directly to big cities, rather than stopping at hub airports, though it does operate a traditional hub system in Atlanta.
Furthering its hub approach, AirTran also intends to develop what it calls focus cities or minihubs -- a large origination and destination market where it offers service to multiple cities. In Baltimore, for example, it operates more than 30 daily flights to 10 destinations. The company also plans to add three to five cities a year.
Some Wall Street analysts, while convinced both companies have a bright future, have tepid ratings on JetBlue stock because they think its price already reflects its prospects. JetBlue declined to comment on the valuation of its stock.
Charles Murray, a portfolio manager at Morgan Asset Management Inc., in Birmingham, Ala., says JetBlue "got kind of rich, early on." However, he says he couldn't buy the stock in any case, because the carrier hadn't been public long enough to meet his firm's investment criteria.
He says he purchased about 280,000 shares of AirTran in the spring at roughly $8 each as part of an investment play into a small group of regional carriers such as Frontier Airlines and SkyWest Inc.'s SkyWest Airlines. He recently sold 80,000 shares of AirTran but says he will hold on to the rest.
JetBlue一朝失误AirTran渔翁得利
在横扫航空业的一片萧条中冉冉升起了两家规模虽小但表现不俗的公司：JetBlue Airways和AirTran Holdings Inc.。前者在纽约颇为知名，该公司在每个坐椅上都配备了可以接收24个频道的卫星电视；后者则是AirTran Airways这家在东南部市场以外几乎不为人知的航空公司的母公司。
AirTran和JetBlue都实现了盈利，而且从大型航空公司的亏损中获益匪浅，这两只股票的价格今年也联袂上扬。AirTran总部位于佛罗里达州奥兰多，虽然近几周其股价略有回落，但从年初至今也已经累计上涨了两倍多。该股周一在纽约证交所综合交易中上涨63美分，收于16.25美元，涨幅4%。JetBlue股票于2002年上市交易，从年初至今也累计上涨了一倍多。该股周一在那斯达克市场上涨2.87美元，收于62.13美元，涨幅4.8%。
但AirTran可能更值得投资者关注，这在一定程度上应归于JetBlue自身的失误。JetBlue的公众形象近来遭受打击，公司承认与五角大楼某安全项目承包商共享了乘客记录。JetBlue向乘客致歉，承认泄露乘客记录是一个“错误”。公司表示，到目前为止尚未发现乘客订票因此锐减，分析师们也认为公司业务或者股价表现不会因此受损。
但这可能会促使一些投资者转向AirTran。直到最近，能令人想起AirTran的还是早在1996年Everglades发生的坠机事件，当时的公司名称是ValuJet。AirTran表示不与第三方分享乘客资料。
AirTran股价诱人的另一原因是其本益比为23倍。虽说已经不低了，但与JetBlue高高在上的47倍相比还是大为逊色。
Turner Investment Partners投资组合经理威廉姆?麦克伟恩(William McVail)年初时买入AirTran股票，并在6月份继续增持。他认为，AirTran订购的新飞机会加强公司在加勒比海和其他市场的地位。
许多业绩不错的低价航空公司先是吸引了众多乘客的关注，但大型航空公司随之而动，采取措施削减票价。众多低价航空公司往往会被这样强大的竞争压力压垮。在航空业中，类似的例子屡见不鲜。但当前的航空业下滑大大削弱了大型航空公司的力量，JetBlue和AirTran这样的小型低成本航空公司就得以借机迅速发展壮大。AirTran拥有71架飞机，航班飞抵43个城市。该公司有望于下月发布连续第六个财政季度盈利的报告。接受Thomson First Call调查的分析师们对AirTran第三财政季度业绩的普遍预计为每股净收益20美分，大大高于上年同期的每股1美分。
AirTran的策略是将西南航空(Southwest Airlines)最有成效的服务措施与大型航空公司传统的放射状航线系统结合起来。像西南航空公司一样，AirTran也提供低票价和快速折返航班服务，票价结构简单明了。同时，它也像大型航空公司一样直飞大城市，而不在中转机场转机，虽然AirTran在亚特兰大设有传统的中心枢纽系统。
此外，AirTran还计划发展公司称之为关键城市，或小型航运中心的业务方式，就是在大型的起飞和终点市场开通飞往多个城市的航班。例如，公司在巴尔的摩开通了每天飞往10个目的港的30多个航班。AirTran计划每年新增三到五个这样的城市。
一些华尔街分析师虽然认为这两家公司的发展前景都很好，但对JetBlue的评级却显得偏低。他们认为JetBlue当前的股价已经反映出了公司的业绩前景。JetBlue拒绝对其股价发表评论。
Morgan Asset Management Inc.投资组合经理查尔斯?默里(Charles Murray)表示，作为一家上市不久的公司，JetBlue的股价就已经不低了。他表示目前任何情况下也不会买入JetBlue股票，因为该股上市时间太短，还达不到Morgan Asset Management的选股标准。
他说，今年春天他在8美元左右的价位上买入了大约280,000股AirTran股票。这是他对Frontier Airlines和SkyWest Inc.旗下SkyWest Airlines等少数地区性航空公司投资计划的一部分。他最近抛售了80,000股AirTran股票，但表示将继续持有余下部分。
