China Is Set to List New Stocks,But Governance Is Still a Worry
China is about to kick off a new round of stock-market listings of state companies, including those from previously off-limits sectors. But skeptics say these share issues won't clean up corporate governance in China's troubled state sector any more than past listings have.
In the wake of a four-day conclave of the powerful Communist Party Central Committee that ends Tuesday, investors can expect a raft of state companies to come to market both domestically and overseas. The meeting, known in party lexicon as the Third Plenum, included on its agenda plans to push reforms and legislation to advance China's market economy. Companies deemed too sensitive or problematic to go public in the past -- chief among them big players in the financial sector -- are now gearing up to do just that.
Among the expected issues: China's four biggest state banks are putting their books in order so that some of them eventually can list shares. Faster off the mark are the country's top three insurance companies, already well on their way to initial public offerings. The nation's flag carrier, Air China, and the national railway operator are also likely candidates.
Listings of large state enterprises so far have tended to be concentrated in heavy industry. China's major telecommunications operators and oil companies are listed, along with some large players in fields such as steel, power, and textiles.
China's stock markets have played a key role during the past decade in the government's strategy to overhaul state enterprises. The standard pattern: Restructure a state enterprise as a shareholding company, list a portion of its shares on the stock market, but keep majority ownership in government hands. The strategy has served the government well. Companies have raised large amounts of money, easing their traditional reliance on bank loans. Their strong government backing and their status as proxies on China's economic growth have helped secure investor demand for the shares.
But critics call the government program a cynical strategy that treats the stock market as a cash machine but protects state companies from having to undergo the painful changes necessary to become truly competitive, independent companies. The government's insistence on maintaining control means that even listed companies ultimately answer to officialdom, not to the market. They expect this new round of listings to be no different.
"I am very pessimistic," Yuan Gangming, a department director at the Economic Research Institute under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says of the coming raft of offerings. "Companies don't come to the capital markets to develop their business. They just come to solve their financial problems." By operating in a netherworld between a public listing and true corporate independence, he says, listed state companies "can push off their losses onto others without having any accountability."
Worries about lax management are a special concern with China's big banks. The big four -- Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China -- together account for about 60% of all lending in the country. They also suffer from serious bad-debt problems, the result of years of lending based on policy prescriptions rather than commercial considerations. To date, only five banks -- all of them smaller, mostly regional banks -- have listed domestically, though Bank of China and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, known as ICBC, have listed parts of their operations in Hong Kong.
Now the Big Four are in the process of auditing their books in advance of possible listings, according to a senior securities regulator. A plan is likely to be decided within a month, says Fred Hu, managing director of Goldman Sachs Asia. He says ICBC, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank are the most likely candidates. As part of that process, it's almost certain the government will have to inject a massive amount of capital to clean up the banks' books before any listings can take place. The entire process could stretch over two years.
"I think the new government is committed to making headway in financial reform," says Mr. Hu. However, he says the banks' listings must be part of a broader overhaul of the way they operate. "The idea of an IPO is not just to raise capital, but to expose the banks to the scrutiny of the market, investors, the media."
The first test of whether this new round of listings will be different from the past will come with the insurance companies. PICC Property & Casualty, owned by the People's Insurance Co. of China Group, the country's biggest property insurer, is set to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange next month. China Life Insurance, the country's largest life insurer, and Ping An Insurance, the No. 2 life insurer, are set to follow. Chinese brokerage firms also are clamoring to list; to date, only two domestic securities firms have gone public. But some say their problems, which include a downturn in domestic equity markets in the past two years and a highly speculative and scandal-ridden corporate culture, preclude any early listings.
Outside the financial sector, transportation is one area in which industry watchers see some promise for future listings. Of national airlines, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines already are listed; both have benefited from the country's economic growth and a boom in travel among Chinese passengers in recent years. The expected listing of China's flag carrier, Air China, could ride those same tides. Plans to list the state railway also are being discussed as part of a larger restructuring of the Ministry of Railways.
Whatever the merits of individual companies or sectors, some say that the timing is good. China's economy is on track to grow at least 8% this year, economists say. The economy's striking resilience -- from the 1997 Asian financial crisis through a bout of severe acute respiratory syndrome earlier this year -- have won increasing respect from investors. "It's a very attractive window for Chinese companies to tap the international market right now," says Goldman's Mr. Hu. "This is the most bullish climate I've seen since the early 1990s."
上市仍难解决中国国企治理问题
中国大陆即将启动新一轮国有企业上市高潮，其中包括那些此前被严禁上市的行业。但怀疑人士认为，此轮新股发行不可能更为有效地解决中国大陆问题重重的国有企业中存在的公司治理问题。
为期4天的中国共产党中央委员会(Communist Party Central Committee)十六届三中全会将于今天闭幕，投资者预计此次会议将制定加速改革及立法，以推进中国市场经济改革的日程表。那些过去被认为过于敏感及存在问题的公司，主要是金融业大型公司现在正摩拳擦掌准备上市。
预计此轮上市公司包括：中国四大国有商业银行，这些银行已经理顺帐目，准备最终上市。动作更快的是中国三大保险公司，这三家公司正在进行首次公开募股。中国旗舰航空运营商中国国际航空公司(Air China)及中国铁路运营商也可能是其中人选。
迄今为止，中国国有企业上市主要集中在重工业。中国大型电讯运营商及石油公司均已上市，钢铁、电力及纺织行业中的领头羊也榜上有名。
过去十年中，股市在中国政府进行国有企业改革的战略中扮演了重要角色。政府通常采取的模式是：将一家国有企业重组成一家股份制公司，将公司部分股份上市，但政府会保留公司大部分股份。该战略使政府受益良多。公司通过上市筹集了大量资金，缓解了对银行贷款的严重依赖。而这些公司享受的强劲政府支持及作为中国经济代表的地位也保证了投资者对其股票的需求。 但批评家认为，中国政府将股市作为提款机，却不让国有企业通过痛苦的变革转变成为真正具有竞争力的独立公司。中国政府坚持控股，这意味著即便是上市公司，最终也将对政府负责，而非对市场负责。这些批评家预计，新一轮国有企业上市也应该是大同小异。
中国社会科学院(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)经济研究所(Economic Research Institute)宏观经济研究室主任袁刚明表示，他对新一轮国有企业上市颇为悲观。这些公司进入资本市场不是为了发展其业务，而仅仅是为了解决其财务问题。通过躲在公开市场及真正独立公司之间的夹缝中，上市国有企业可以将亏损推到投资者身上，而无需承担任何责任。
市场对大型国有银行管理松懈的担忧尤为严重。中国四大国有商业银行：中国工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China)、中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)、中国银行(Bank of China)及中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)的放贷总额约占中国银行业放贷额的60%。这些银行同时还受到严重的坏帐问题困扰，这是过去发放贷款主要依照政策需要，而非商业考量导致的恶果。迄今为止，仅有5家小型银行（大多为地区性银行）在国内上市，尽管中国银行及中国工商银行部分业务已经在香港上市。
一位高级证券监管人士称，四大国有银行正在进行上市前的帐目审计。高盛（亚洲）(Goldman Sachs Asia)执行董事胡祖六(Fred Hu)称，预计相关机构将在一个月内确定一份上市计划。他认为，中国工商银行、中国银行及中国建设银行最有可能获准上市。作为四大国有银行上市计划的一部分，政府一定会注入巨额资金，以帮助它们在上市前理顺帐目。整个过程可能将历时两年。
胡祖六认为，政府将承诺大力推进金融改革。但他认为，若要银行上市，则必须对其经营方式进行范围更为广泛的审查。国有银行首次公开募股不仅是要筹集资金，而且是要将这些银行置于市场、投资者及媒体的监督之下。
检验新一轮上市是否有别于以往的第一块试金石将是保险公司。中国人民财产保险股份有限公司(PICC Property & Casualty)定于下月于香港联交所上市，该公司隶属中国人民保险集团(People's Insurance Co. of China Group)。中国最大的人寿保险运营商中国人寿保险股份有限公司(China Life Insurance)及第二大人寿保险运营商平安保险(Ping An Insurance)也将紧随其后。中国证券公司也正积极争取上市，迄今为止只有两家国内证券公司上市。但一些市场人士表示，由于面临过去两年股市下跌，并背负著投机操作和丑闻频出的恶名，预计证券公司不大可能在短期内上市。
行业分析师认为，除金融业之外，交通业也有望上市。航空公司方面，中国东方航空股份有限公司(China Eastern Airlines Corp., 简称：东方航空)及中国南方航空股份有限公司(Southern Airlines, 简称：南方航空)早已上市，这两家公司均受益于近年中国经济及国内乘客旅行的增长，预计中国旗舰航空运营商中国国际航空公司也将借著这股东风成功上市。国有铁路运营商上市的计划也在商讨之中，这是铁道部(Ministry of Railways)改革的组成部分。
无论个别公司或行业具备何种优势，一些市场人士认为，现在上市，时机颇佳。今年中国经济正朝著最低增长8%的目标前进。中国经济令人吃惊的反弹能力（从1997年亚洲金融危机直至今年年初的非典型肺炎(SARS)），已经赢得投资者越来越多的青睐。高盛的胡祖六称，现在的股市是中国公司利用国际市场的最佳武器，目前的市场环境是九十年代初以来最好的时候。
