Rise of yen spoils party for Japan exporters
Japan's business and political leaders must be cursing their luck. Just as the economy appeared to be taking a turn for the better, with share prices trending higher and business sentiment improving, the yen's sharp appreciation looks set to spoil the party.
On Thursday, the yen hit Y109.52 to the dollar, its highest level in nearly three years, sending the shares of leading exporters tumbling in heavy trading.
Honda, Nissan, Nintendo and Canon, all of which rely significantly on overseas revenues, were among the eight heaviest losers in percentage terms on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
The concern is that the yen's recent appreciation is just the start of a trend that could undermine a nascent recovery.
"We believe the dollar's decline has just begun," says Masatoshi Kikuchi, strategist at Merrill Lynch in Tokyo.
For Japanese exporters, a stronger yen, particularly against the US dollar, hurts in two ways - by lowering the yen value of their overseas earnings and raising the relative cost of their Japan-based production.
Since most Japanese exporters have assumed a rate of between Y115 and Y120 to the dollar, if the yen continues to strengthen, it will be difficult to avoid a negative impact on results this year, even with hedging.
Nintendo said it would make its first ever loss in the first half because of the impact of the yen's appreciation on its dollar assets.
Sony registers 70 per cent of its sales outside Japan - and about 32 per cent in the US. It says that every Y1 rise against the US dollar translates into a Y30bn drop in sales and a Y5bn decline in operating profits.
Canon, which makes 70 per cent of its revenues overseas, says that every Y1 rise in the yen's value against the US dollar translates into a Y6.1bn drop in sales and a Y2.5bn decline in operating profits.
The same movement for a full year would wipe Y20bn off Toyota's bottom line.
But Japanese exporters, who went through worse not too long ago, are better equipped than ever to deal with an appreciating currency.
In 1995, the yen shot to an unprecedented Y79.9 to the US dollar and appeared set to rise further, shaking exporters' confidence in their ability to compete globally.
By coincidence, that was the year that both Nobuyuki Idei and Fujio Mitarai began their respective terms at the top of Sony and Canon.
Mr Idei and Mr Mitarai have since made it a priority to reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on their groups' financial performance.
Like other exporters they have done so by transferring a large part of their production overseas. Sony has raised its overseas production ratio from 42 per cent in 1995 to 50 per cent. Fujifilm notes that 100 per cent of the amateur film it sells in the US is manufactured there. Toyota produces about 60 per cent of the vehicles it sells to the North American market in the US, compared with about 75 per cent at Honda Motors and 65 per cent at Nissan Motors.
Some Japanese companies have gone a step further. As the yen was strengthening on Monday, Toyota started selling the Avensis - the first Toyota to be made entirely in the UK and imported for sale in Japan.
Chris Richter, car analyst at HSBC Securities, said the major manufacturers had "built in enough safety and hedged enough forward into the year" to avoid an earnings downgrade. Nonetheless, continuing yen appreciation against the dollar is bound to put pressure on Japanese exporters to shift more production overseas. While the leading Japanese carmakers are relatively protected, smaller makers such as Mitsubishi or Mazda, have "less room for error", says Mr Richter.
Although the overseas production ratio of Japanese producers is rising, "there is still a big gap between overseas production and overseas sales", says Mr Kikuchi. Sony has conceded as much by promising to unveil measures this month to further reduce yen-based costs. With many economists predicting the yen at under Y100 to the dollar by next year, even the most global Japanese exporters cannot afford to sit still.
日元升值殃及出口商利益
日本商界和政界领袖一定在抱怨运气不好。表面上，日本经济已出现好转，股价呈上升趋势，商业信心有所改善，但恰在此时，日元却大幅升值，这似乎注定要影响日本经济复苏的步伐。
上周四，日元兑美元汇率升至109.52比1的近三年新高，日元升值导致日本主要出口商的股票放量下挫。
本田(Honda)、日产(Nissan)、任天堂(Nintendo)和佳能(Canon)等收入高度依赖海外市场的公司，都在东京证券交易所(Tokyo Stock Exchange)跌幅百分比最大的8只股票之列。
人们担心的问题是，日元最近升值只不过是一个新趋势的开端，这一趋势可能破坏初露端倪的日本经济复苏。
美林(Merrill)驻东京策略师菊池正年(Masatoshi Kikuchi)表示："我们认为，美元的下跌才刚刚开始。"
日元升值，特别是兑美元升值，对日本出口商造成了两方面损害--一方面降低了它们以日元计算的海外收益价值，另一方面则提高了日本生产的相对成本。
因为大多数日本出口商已假定，美元兑日元汇率在1比115和120之间，所以，如果日元继续升值，即使日本企业采取了套期保值措施，也很难避免日元升值对今年经营业绩所带来的负面影响。
任天堂公司表示，因其美元计价资产受日元升值影响，任天堂今年上半年将出现有史以来的首次亏损。
索尼(Sony)70%的销售收入来自日本以外的地区，其中又有32%来自美国。索尼表示，日元兑美元汇率每升值1日元，就意味着销售收入减少300亿日元；经营利润下降50亿日元。
佳能有70%的收入来自海外，公司表示，日元兑美元汇率每升值1日元，就意味着销售收入减少61亿日元；经营利润下降25亿日元。
如果日元兑美元汇率全年升值1日元，那么丰田汽车公司(Toyota)的经营利润将减少200亿日元。
但是，日本出口商现在对日元升值所做的准备要比以往更充分。因为就在不久前，它们的局面曾更为糟糕。
1995年，日元兑美元汇率升至有史以来的最高点--79.9比1，而且看来还会继续上升，日元大幅升值动摇了日本出口商对其全球竞争能力的信心。
巧合的是，正是在那一年，出井伸之(Nobuyuki Idei)和御手洗富士夫(Fujio Mitarai)分别开始担任索尼和佳能的最高领导。
自那以来，出井伸之和御手洗就把减少汇率波动对集团财务状况的冲击，当作头等大事来处理。
和其它出口商一样，索尼和佳能也把大部分生产转移到海外，以避免汇率波动带来的影响。索尼把海外生产的比例从1995年的42%提高到了50%。富士胶卷(Fujifilm)则指出，公司在美国出售的大众摄影胶卷全部在当地生产。丰田销往北美地区的汽车中，大约60%在美国制造，相比之下，本田汽车的这一比例为75%，日产汽车的比例是65%。
有些日本公司走得更远。随着日元上周一走强，丰田公司开始销售Avensis车，这是丰田公司第一款完全在英国生产、随后进口到日本销售的丰田车。
汇丰证券(HSBC Securities)的汽车分析师克里斯o里克特(Chris Richter)说，各大制造商已"采取了足够的安全措施，对远期汇率风险的套期保值措施已覆盖了全年"，以避免盈利滑坡。尽管如此，日元对美元汇率持续升值，肯定会给日本出口商带来压力，促使它们将更多的生产转移到海外。里克特说，虽然一流日本汽车制造商相对而言受到了保护，但三菱(Mitsubishi)或马自达(Mazda)等小规模制造商"出错的回旋余地就不大"。
尽管日本制造商的海外生产比例正在攀升，"但海外生产量和海外销售额之间仍有很大缺口，"菊池正年说。索尼公司也做出了同样让步，公司允诺本月将披露具体措施，进一步削减以日元计价的成本。许多经济学家预测说，到明年，美元兑日元将跌至100日元以下，因此，即使是全球化程度最高的日本出口商也不能无动于衷了。
