Tsunami of Digital Devices Heads for U.S. Shores
Asian makers of the electronic gadgets and toys destined to be wrapped up and tucked under American Christmas trees say holiday demand in the U.S. is markedly firmer than it was last year.
With manufacturing of holiday goods now at its peak, makers of everything from semiconductors to finished cellphones, digital cameras and DVD recorders are reporting strong sales to U.S. brand-marketers, distributors and retailers. After two disappointing Christmas seasons in a row, manufacturers' hopes this year are running high, fueled in large part by a strong back-to-school season. Some executives say they believe the long-awaited tech recovery is in sight.
Several new products -- or existing products with fresh features and newly cheap price tags -- are likely to be hot gifts this year, Asian executives say. Digital videodisc players will be available for well under $100, and some Chinese and Taiwanese-made DVD recorders could be selling for as little $300 when the holiday season is in full swing. Digital still cameras with resolutions of up to three megapixels could be available for as little as $150.
Sony Corp. and Matsushita Electric IndustrialCo., Japan's two consumer-electronics giants, say DVD recorders seem poised for a boom, as prices drop and more models hit the market. Matsushita is betting heavily on its Panasonic-brand DVD recorders. It plans to sell six models in the U.S. this season, compared with two last year. The company expects October-to-December sales of DVD recorders to be triple those in the year-earlier period. (See related article)
U.S. orders for cellphones with built-in cameras, DVD-writing drives for PCs, and flat-screen TVs are especially strong, says Wookyung Kim, an investor-relations manager at South Korea's LG Electronics Co. LG is forecasting double-digit growth in its electronics exports for the holiday period, helping the company through a slump in its domestic market.
Sunplus Technology Co., a chip designer in Taiwan, says sales of chips used in educational toys, such as the PowerTouch Learning System sold under Mattel Inc.'s Fisher-Price brand, also have been strong. With its traditional Christmas-order season almost finished, Sunplus says it has seen no sign of the gloom that descended on holiday sales in seasons past. "Overall, consumers have stronger demand this year than in the past two years, especially on ... digital cameras and video players," says Wayne Shen, a Sunplus spokesman.
Sales by Asian suppliers in October offer no guarantee that U.S. shoppers will buy the merchandise headed for stores in December. Indeed, some economists would argue that retailers and manufacturers are setting their Christmas sights too high, as U.S. consumers continue to struggle with heavy debt and a lackluster job market. Still, up and down the supply chain, Asian companies are optimistic about signs of economic vigor in the U.S.
South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co., the world's biggest maker of computer memory chips and the No. 3 maker of cellphones, said it expects the steady improvement it has been experiencing in most products this year to continue during the holidays. Last week, Samsung reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and raised its full-year sales forecast for cellphones to 55 million units from 52.5 million. It also said it expects average holiday selling prices for cellphones to rise -- a rare feat in the electronics industry.
In Taiwan, whose companies manufacture most of the world's notebook computers and flat-screen displays, 119 of the 146 technology companies tracked by J.P. Morgan reported a rise in September revenue compared with a year ago. Nearly a third announced record-high monthly sales. Among those was Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., a maker of cellphone chips for Texas Instruments Inc. and graphics chips used in Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox game machine. Taiwan Semiconductor is on track this year to far exceed its revenue for 2000, the last year before the global tech bubble burst.
"Overall [information technology] spending has started to recover. You can see in the industry lots of component supplies are getting tight," says Alex Liou, controller at BenQCorp., a Taiwan maker of flat-screen monitors and DVD machines for its own brand as well as for Dell Inc. and Philips Electronics NV. BenQ saw third-quarter revenue jump more than 30% over last year and expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow about 40%.
"At least as of now, it seems like we're having the best second half since 2000," says Bhavin Shah, head of Asian technology research at J.P. Morgan. "The third quarter was clearly better than normal, and in the fourth quarter there's a very good chance of a repeat."
亚洲电子产品生产商笑迎美国假日
又到了一年一度包装圣诞礼物、点缀圣诞树的时候了。作为圣诞礼物主要供应商的亚洲电子产品和玩具制造商表示，美国的假日需求将明显强于去年同期。
假日产品的生产目前正处于高峰期。从半导体到各种制成品，包括移动电话、数码照相机和DVD录像机在内，几乎所有产品的制造商均宣布对美国品牌营销商、分销商和零售商的销售颇为强劲。在经历了连续两个令人失望的圣诞季节后，制造商的乐观预期更加高涨，部分推动力就来源于今年强劲的返校季节表现。部分公司的管理人士表示，相信市场企盼已久的科技业复苏终于开始获得动力了。
亚洲企业的管理人士称，一些新产品，或者添加了新特色的旧有产品，或者最新降价的旧有产品都有可能将成为今年的热门货。据JP摩根(J.P. Morgan)估算，假日季节完全展开后，DVD播放器的价格将大大低于100美元，而部分中国和台湾制造的DVD录像机将以仅仅300美元的低价销售。分辨率最高为3兆像素的高性能数码照相机的价格最低将跌至150美元。
日本两大电子消费品生产商索尼公司(Sony Corp., 又名:新力公司)和松下电器产业公司(Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.)表示，DVD录像机价格日渐下滑，新机型不断推出，该市场似乎将出现爆炸式增长。松下电器对其Panasonic品牌的DVD录像机寄予厚望。该公司计划本季在美国市场销售六种机型，而去年仅有两种。公司预计10至12月之间DVD录像机的销售额将达到去年同期的三倍。
韩国LG电子(LG Electronics Co.)投资者关系经理Wookyung Kim表示，美国市场对可拍照手机、个人电脑的DVD刻录驱动器以及平面电视机的需求特别强劲。公司目前预计假日期间电子产品出口额呈两位数增长，有助于弥补公司在国内市场的疲软表现。
台湾晶片设计商凌阳科技(Sunplus Technology Co.)表示，用于教育玩具的晶片销售也一直表现强劲。这种玩具包括以Mattel Inc.的Fisher-Price品牌出售的PowerTouch Learning System。该产业传统的圣诞订单季节已几近结束，凌阳科技表示，尚未发现过去几个假日期间曾经出现的低迷迹象。凌阳科技发言人沈文义(Wayne Shen)表示，整体而言，消费者今年的需求强于过去两年，特别是在数码照相机和视频游戏机方面。
亚洲供应商们10月份的强劲销售并不能确保美国消费者就一定会在12月份积极购买这些产品。事实上，部分经济学家仍然认为零售商和制造商对圣诞节的销售前景过于乐观，因美国消费者仍然面临著沉重的债务负担和疲软的就业市场。但是，这一条供应链从上到下，亚洲公司对美国经济充满活力的迹象依然感到乐观。
作为全球最大的电脑内存晶片制造商兼第三大移动电话制造商，韩国的三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)预计，今年该公司大部分产品需求持续好转的趋势将持续到假日季节。三星电子上周发布的第三财政季度业绩好于预期，公司还将移动电话全年销量预期由5,250万部上调至5,500万部。三星电子预计，假日期间移动电话平均售价将走高，这将是电子产品行业内少见的火爆景象。
全球大多数笔记本电脑和平面显示器制造商都位于台湾。JP摩根在台湾追踪著146家科技类股，其中的119家都宣布9月份收入高于去年同期水平；接近三分之一的公司都宣布月度销售额达到创纪录的高位。台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., 简称：台积电)也居于其中，它为德州仪器公司(Texas Instruments Inc.)制造移动电话晶片，为微软公司(Microsoft Corp.)的Xbox游戏机生产制图晶片。台积电今年的收入有望超过2000年水平，当时正是全球科技业泡沫破裂前的最后一年。
明基电通股份有限公司(Benq Corp.)的财务长刘维宇(Alex Liou)表示，信息技术支出整体上已经开始复苏，这从很多零部件供应开始紧缺的趋势中就可以看出来。该公司以自己的品牌生产平面显示器和DVD相关产品，同时也向戴尔公司(Dell Inc.)和荷兰飞利浦电子集团(Philips Electronics NV)供货。该公司第三季度收入较去年同期跃升超过30%，并预计第四季度收入增幅约为40%。
JP摩根亚洲科技研究部门负责人Bhavin Shah表示，至少从目前来看，这是2000年以来表现最好的一个下半年。他补充道，第三季度明显好于往常，而第四季度也极有可能继续好转。
