AT&T Was Left at the Altar; What's in Store for Ma Bell?
When BellSouth Corp. walked away from merger talks with AT&T Corp. this week, investors were left to wonder whether they, too, should jilt Ma Bell.
Negotiations between the two phone companies have underlined Wall Street's view that in the face of a relentlessly declining business, AT&T's plan -- and its best bet -- is to sell itself. Few investors doubt the nation's largest long-distance carrier will keep looking for a deal.
"I think AT&T eventually will get acquired," says Dean Kartsonas, an analyst at Federated Investors, whose mutual funds invest in both AT&T and BellSouth. "It just comes down to timing."
But buying AT&T stock as a takeover play might be risky. Even if AT&T finds a suitor, its stock, which has declined since early this year, might not have much bounce.
AT&T has reported 15 straight quarters of declining revenue. In the Bedminster, N.J., company's once-mighty consumer division, revenue is shrinking at an alarming rate of about 20% a year as more people flock to cellphones, e-mail and rival carriers. AT&T executives see their future in providing telecommunications services to businesses. But that is where price competition is most intense, and it is likely to get even tougher when rival MCI, formerly WorldCom Inc., emerges from Chapter 11 bankruptcy-court protection, likely early next year.
Some mutual-fund managers say all of this means AT&T is unlikely to command a big premium, even if a suitor with the wherewithal steps to the altar. "If you're an investor in AT&T, you shouldn't be in because you think it's going to get taken out," says Robert Gensler, manager of T. Rowe Price Media & Telecommunications Fund, which doesn't hold AT&T or BellSouth stock. Mr. Gensler says the antitrust obstacles to a deal could be insurmountable, regardless of the buyer.
AT&T shares fell 4.4%, or 87 cents, to $19.07 each at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading Wednesday, on an overall up day for the market. BellSouth rose 2.7%, or 67 cents, to $26. The relatively modest stock reaction to news of talks between the two collapsing suggests few investors assumed there would be a deal.
AT&T and BellSouth had been in sporadic deal discussions since 2001. It isn't clear whether BellSouth, which flirts with mergers but so far always balks, will be back. The other obvious matches for AT&T, Verizon Communications Inc. and SBC Communications Inc., don't seem interested at this point, say people familiar with the companies.
So, anyone who invests in AT&T should base the decision on the company's relatively inexpensive stock, substantial cash flow and progress in reducing debt and cutting costs, Mr. Kartsonas says. Those factors suggest the company can continue to produce decent, even increasing, dividend income. Still, he says, investing in AT&T now is "a tossup."
AT&T Chairman and Chief Executive David Dorman has repeatedly stressed that cost cutting and efforts to improve service have positioned the company's flagship service to businesses to outperform rivals once the economy improves and businesses again start spending on telecommunications. "We are focused on running our business," company spokesman Paul Kranhold says. "We think we are positioned better than most in the industry for the economic turnaround when it comes."
As for BellSouth, investors reacted with relief that the Atlanta company, which serves most of the Southeast, didn't pounce. "They can get it cheaper later," says Mr. Kartsonas, who says BellSouth shares might be getting pricey following a relatively strong third quarter. BellSouth, he says, is likely to face increasing competition in its home region.
Many observers expect that AT&T's consumer operation will accelerate its efforts to compete with BellSouth now that the merger talks are off. AT&T plans to announce Thursday that it is expanding its local-phone service into Alabama and Tennessee, though the company says the move has been planned for months and is part of a nationwide expansion of its local-phone efforts.
The talks with BellSouth fell apart largely because some BellSouth executives were uncomfortable with the premium built into the $24-a-share price the companies were contemplating for AT&T, say people familiar with the matter. It didn't help that AT&T predicted intensifying price competition in its core services to businesses when it reported third-quarter results last week, these people said. BellSouth declined to comment.
Some investors think BellSouth has been smart to resist the temptation to deal. Pundits have long said the company needed to get bigger and needed to join the consolidation frenzy. But it has done well by standing aside as its rivals struggled through a series of megamergers that have mostly disappointed. AT&T itself was forced to divest cable assets that cost more than $100 billion to acquire in a bid to reduce its debt.
Still, BellSouth might need to get bigger to hold its own with SBC and Verizon, its much larger rivals, analysts say. Buying AT&T or MCI would be the fastest and easiest way for a Baby Bell to get into the market for providing telecom services to businesses, which is notoriously difficult to break into.
If BellSouth does decide it needs to find a partner, time could work to its advantage. By waiting, BellSouth might get a better chance to assess whether it might be better off making a bid for MCI, which sought bankruptcy-court protection in the wake of an $11 billion accounting fraud. Like AT&T, MCI is presumed to be an acquisition target, though no buyers are expected to make a move until it is out of bankruptcy protection and has audited books.
AT&T待价而沽
南贝尔公司(BellSouth Corp.)本周从与美国电话电报公司(AT&T Corp.)合并的谈判桌旁走开，留给投资者的疑问是：他们是否应该抛弃贝尔妈妈(Ma Bell)。
这两大电话公司间的谈判确认了华尔街一直以来的一个观点，那就是在业务逐步萎缩的残酷现实面前，AT&T的计划－－也是其最大的赌注－－是把自己卖了。没有几个投资者怀疑AT&T会继续寻找买家。
Federated Investors的分析师迪安?卡特桑那斯(Dean Kartsonas)称，他认为AT&T最终会被收购，这仅是个时机问题。卡特桑那斯所在的共同基金持有这两只股票。
但买进AT&T股票并作为并购概念股持有可能有很大危险性。即便AT&T寻找到买家，其股价反弹的空间或许也并不大。该股年初以来即呈下跌趋势。
AT&T的收入已连续15个季度下跌。由于更多的消费者转向移动电话，电子邮件和其他运营商，该公司曾经辉煌的消费者业务的收入以约每年20%的速度下降，警钟已经敲响。
AT&T的管理层认为公司的未来在于向企业客户提供电信服务。但该领域的价格竞争最为激烈，而当MCI（前WorldCom Inc.）摆脱破产保护后，该领域的争夺将更加如火如荼，而MCI有可能在明年年初摆脱破产保护。
部分共同基金经理称，所有这些意味著，即使有有能力的买家愿意收购AT&T，该股也不会出现大的涨幅。
T. Rowe Price Media & Telecommunications基金的经理罗伯特?根斯勒(Robert Gensler)称，并购交易面临的反垄断障碍可能是无法逾越的，不论买家是谁。该基金不持有AT&T或南贝尔的股票。
在美国股市周三总体走强的情况下，AT&T收盘下跌了4.4%，至19.07美元。南贝尔上涨2.7%，至26美元。两只股票的股价对谈判破裂作出相对较温和的反应显示，没有多少投资者认为双方将达成交易。
知情人士称，其他有能力实施收购的公司还有Verizon Communications Inc.和西南贝尔公司(SBC Communications Inc.)，但似乎这两家公司目前对AT&T并不感兴趣。
卡特桑那斯称，任何投资于AT&T的人，其投资决定都应是在以下事实基础上作出的：该公司相对低廉的股价，强劲的现金流和在降低债务和削减成本方面取得的进展。这些特性意味著该公司能够继续提供像样的，甚至增长的派息。不过他也说，即便如此，投资AT&T股票的盈利可能性也只有一半。
AT&T的董事长兼首席执行长戴维?多曼(David Dorman)此前多次表示，削减成本和改善服务的努力使AT&T的主要业务能够在经济环境改善和企业重新开始在通讯领域支出时，取得强于对手的成绩。
位于亚特兰大的南贝尔没有采取突然收购AT&T的行动，这个消息让南贝尔的投资者大大地松了一口气。卡特桑那斯称，南贝尔晚一些收购AT&T应该能够拿到更低的价格。他说，在公布相对强劲的第三季度收益后，南贝尔的股价可能会更高，但南贝尔在其总部所在地面临的竞争可能会更加激烈。
许多观察家预计，与南贝尔的谈判破裂后，AT&T的消费者运营部门将加快与南贝尔的竞争。AT&T计划在周四宣布将其本地电话服务扩展到阿拉巴马州和田纳西州。AT&T表示，此举已经筹划数月，是公司扩展本地电话服务业务的步骤之一。
据知情人士透露，AT&T与南贝尔谈判破裂的主要原因是，南贝尔高层人士对每股24美元的收购价不很满意。知情人士称，AT&T上周在公布第三季度收益的时候曾预计，为企业客户提供服务的核心业务将面临更加激烈的竞争，这使南贝尔高层在作出收购决定时更加犹豫不决。南贝尔拒绝对此发表评论。
某些投资者认为，南贝尔能够抵抗住并购的诱惑，这是南贝尔明智的表现。一直以来，权威人士认为，南贝尔需要进行扩张，需要加入到这场并购热潮中来。但南贝尔选择退到一旁，看著竞争对手们在一系列的并购之后挣扎著生存，境遇越来越糟糕。为减轻债务，AT&T被迫剥离了其有线业务资产，该公司当初收购这一业务时花费了1,000亿美元。
不过分析师认为，南贝尔仍需要扩大规模，以应对来自西南贝尔公司(SBC)和Verizon的竞争。南贝尔若想进入难度较高的企业客户电信服务市场，收购AT&T或MCI电讯公司(MCI Communications)将是最佳捷径。
如果南贝尔确定它确实需要一个合作伙伴，等待将是南贝尔的成功密笈。静候一段时间后南贝尔会发现，收购MCI更加合算。MCI在价值110亿美元的会计欺骗事件曝光后申请了破产保护。与AT&T一样，MCI被认定是一个收购对象，但在MCI摆脱破产保护状态、公布经审计的财务报表之前，估计没有人会采取收购行动。
(back)More Managers Allow Workers to Multitask As Job and Home Blur
In the months leading up to her wedding last July, Anne Crum Ross says the line between her work and personal life dissolved. "For every five work calls I made at the office, I made one wedding-planning call," she says.
With just three months to go before the ceremony, she changed jobs in real estate and became director of corporate training at Sussex & Reilly in Chicago. She took the wedding-guest and catering files she had stored on her Palm to her new office. "As long as I was doing my work, my bosses didn't have a problem with me doing wedding planning," she says. "It's all about knowing how to multitask."
The 10-hour work day now typical at many companies increasingly means having to blend professional and personal tasks. Between meetings and memo writing, employees and their bosses log onto the Internet to pay bills, manage their 401(k) accounts, shop for birthday gifts and plan vacations. While attending their children's school events, they use their BlackBerrys to answer colleagues' questions, proof letters and make appointments with clients.
For managers, this overlap between work and life presents several new challenges. Many recognize that since they now expect employees to be accessible 24/7 on e-mail and cellphone, they also must give them the freedom to handle personal chores during regular office hours. But should they also set limits? What overlap is productive? How should managers handle employees who abuse the new flexibility?
Steven Centrillo, executive vice president of advertiser Grey Worldwide, expects his employees "will use the computers and other tools we give them to manage their work to also manage their personal lives." Doing so can boost workplace productivity, he believes.
"If employees can access their bank accounts on the Internet while sitting at their desks, they're saving hour-long trips to the bank," he says.
The same goes for them getting their work done at home. "All I care about is if they are getting their job done on time, and well -- not where they are doing it from or what else they are doing at the same time." says Mr. Centrillo.
He himself relies on five computers, two cellphones, a BlackBerry, a Palm and a pager to get work done for his Atlanta and New York offices while seeing to his family duties. "With my pager, I can be at my son's high-school football game on Friday afternoon and be available if a client needs me -- and I don't have to choose between them," he says. "The pager helps me handle my job and my life better, and if that's the case for me, I can't deny that to others."
Luke Visconti, partner and co-founder of DiversityInc, a New Brunswick, N.J., publisher and consultant on diversity issues, assures his employees that some personal business is permissible during work. He tells them: "Don't cover your computer screen when I walk by and you're checking a personal travel reservation."
But he won't allow employees to multitask through lunch by eating at their desks. "I don't want smelly food around, and I think it's healthier for people to get out for an hour," he says.
Mr. Visconti also forbade one employee to log onto an online game at the office. The employee "became so engrossed in the game for a while that even though he didn't play it a lot during work hours, he was distracted, and then he'd stay very late at night to finish his work," says Mr. Visconti. "I had to explain that even though he finished his assignments, he was disconnected from the flow of everyone else's work."
Some managers establish guidelines through their own example. Terry Wachalter, director of global operations at Euro RSCG Life, an advertising and marketing company, arrives at her New York office at 7 a.m. to pay her credit-card bills online and do other personal chores. By 8:30 a.m., she focuses exclusively on work. She rarely takes a break for lunch so she can leave by about 6 p.m. and have time in the evening for her husband and 13-year-old son. "This works for me," says Ms. Wachalter, who has helped other employees create different schedules, such as working from home a few days each week.
More companies are offering equipment and services to help keep employees at work longer with fewer interruptions. They include ATMs, health and beauty aids, photo-developing stores, dry cleaning services and fitness centers.
Google offers the 800 employees at its headquarters in Mountain View, Calif., free lunches and dinners cooked by a gourmet chef. The dinner is popular with Google's young engineers, who tend to be single and work late. Google also offers dry-cleaning services, washers and dryers for those who want to do their laundry during work, yoga and other fitness classes, and massages.
Managers who blend work and life easily may also do better at weathering life crises. When Marcia Firestone was battling breast cancer two years ago, she scheduled chemotherapy treatments on Thursday afternoons to least disrupt her office routine, and she continued to work at home through the weekend. "Work gave me focus and kept me going," says Ms. Firestone, president of the Women Presidents' Organization, a New York nonprofit group of women heads of companies.
现代化生活中的"公私兼顾"
安?克鲁姆(Anne Crum)在去年7月份举行了结婚典礼。在那之前的几个月，安说，她的私生活与工作的界限已经完全模糊。"那段日子，我上班时间所打的电话有五分之一都和婚礼有关"，她说。
在距离婚礼大约还有三个月的时间，安放弃了在房地产业的工作，跳槽到芝加哥的Sussex & Reilly担任公司培训主管。她将储存在Palm个人数字助理上的客人名单等各种与婚礼有关的文件带到了新的办公室。她说，"只要我是在工作，老板不会在意我顺便处理一些与婚礼有关的事情。只要学会同时干多件事就可以了"。
每天10小时的工作在很多公司变得越来越普遍，职员不得不将工作任务和私生活的安排夹杂起来处理。在开会和写备忘录的空档，职员和老板可以登录互联网缴付帐单、管理个人401(k)退休金帐户、购买生日礼物或者是安排度假事宜等等。当在孩子的学校参加活动时，他们也会抽空用BlackBerrys电子邮件软件回复同事的问题、校对信件或是安排与客户的会面。
对于管理人士而言，这种工作与生活的交叉会带来一些问题。很多公司的经理认为，他们有事的时候可以通过电子邮件或移动电话随时联系到职员，因此，在正常上班时间也应当给职员一些处理私人事务的自由。但这种自由是否应当有个限制？这种工作和生活的交叉是否会影响到工作效率？经理又应当如何处置那些过于自由的员工？ 精信广告有限公司(Grey Worldwide)执行副总裁史蒂夫?琴特雷拉(Steven Centrillo)说，员工在利用公司提供的电脑及其他工具处理公事的同时，也会处理一些私人事务。他相信这样可以提高工作效率。
他说，如果员工在办公室里可以通过网络进入自己的银行帐户，他们就不必耗费时间亲自跑银行了"。
同样道理，员工在家时也可以捎带著做一些工作。"我只关心他们是不是按时完成了工作。他们在哪儿完成的工作，完成工作的同时都干了些什么，这我是不关心的"，史蒂夫说。
他本人就使用5台电脑、2部手机、1个BlackBerry电子邮件软件、1个Palm个人数字助理和1个呼机来处理亚特兰大和纽约办公室的工作，另外还要处理一些家庭事。"如果我佩带呼机，周五下午就可以到儿子上学的高中看橄榄球比赛，即使有客户找我也可以随时找得到。这样，我就不必在看橄榄球和陪客户之间做选择了"，他说。"呼机让我更好的处理工作和生活，所以我不能不让我的员工也像我这样。"
Diversity Inc.的合伙人兼联合创始人鲁克?维斯孔蒂(Luke Visconti)告诉员工，他们可以在工作时间处理个人的事情。Diversity是一家新泽西州新伯伦瑞克市的出版公司和咨询公司。他对手下员工说，"当我经过的时候，如果你们正在网上查询旅行预定的情况，完全没有必要将这个窗口掩藏起来。"
但他不允许员工一边吃午饭一边手中还忙各种事情。他说，"我不想在办公室里看到各种食物，而且午休时间出去转转对人的健康有益。
维斯孔蒂曾经禁止一名员工在办公室里上网玩游戏。他说，"有一段时间，这个员工对游戏过于沉迷，虽然他办公的时候并没有总玩游戏，但他的心神分散了许多，弄得总要到深夜赶工作。我必须提醒他，虽然工作没有耽误，但是他却因此缺乏了与其他同事的沟通和联系。"
有的经理人还结合自己工作和生活体验制定出一套行事安排。泰里?瓦克斯勒(Terry Wachalter)是广告及营销公司Euro RSCG Life的全球业务主管。她每天早上7点赶到纽约的办公室，先在网上支付个人信用卡的帐单，处理一些个人事务；到8点半开始全身心投入工作。她几乎不午休，这样就可以在下午6点左右离开办公室，回家陪伴丈夫和13岁的儿子。"这种安排对我很适用"，她说。泰里还帮助其他员工制定了不同的排班表，比如每周在家工作几天等等。
很多公司都提供一些设备及服务，如自助提款机(ATMs)、健康及美容服务、相片冲洗服务、衣物干洗服务和健身中心等，好让员工有尽量多的时间用于工作，减少其他事务的打扰。
Google免费向在加州山景城总部工作的800名员工提供由一个美食大厨烹饪的午餐和晚餐。公司里年轻的工程师有很多是单身，往往工作到很晚，他们对公司提供的晚餐赞不绝口。Google还为那些想在上班时间清洗衣物的员工提供了干洗服务以及洗衣机和烘干机。除此之外，公司里还有瑜珈及其他健身课程和按摩服务。
那些能够将生活和工作有益的结合起来的人可能能够更好的应对生活中的危机。两年前，马莎?费尔斯通(Marcia Firestone)身患乳腺癌，为了尽量不影响工作，这位女性总裁组织(Women Presidents'Organization)的总裁将自己的化疗安排在每周四的下午，她整个周末都会在家工作。"工作让我忘记病痛的烦恼，给我前进的动力"，费尔斯通女士说。女性总裁组织是一个设在纽约的非盈利性组织，成员都是在各个公司担任领导职位的女性。
