Why Japan's Economic Health May Be Stronger Than Data Show
TOKYO -- Just how weak was Japan's economic growth in the July-to-September quarter?
Next week the Japanese government announces gross domestic product for the period, and private economists say they expect expansion of just 0.3% from the previous quarter, or 1% on an annualized basis. Some economists say they think GDP -- the widest measure of economic activity -- could even have contracted.
Such a gloomy result would mean a second-straight weak quarter for the world's second-largest economy, which grew at an annualized rate of 1% from April to June. Weakness would disappoint Tokyo's stock market, where the benchmark index is around the same level as the beginning of the year and 7% below April's peak.
But the data may not be telling the whole story. Most economists say they agree the economy went through a soft patch, but they say government figures are exaggerating the gloom and that the economy probably is already picking up speed in the current quarter.
The confusion surrounds Japan's consumption data, which are often revised later, giving a wildly different picture of the economy. Consumption accounts for some 55% of Japan's GDP and so is by far the biggest determinant of how much the economy grows. This time, economists say they expect the data to at first show consumption to have fallen, subtracting from GDP growth.
Some of the numbers used to calculate the consumption component of GDP come from a government survey of household spending, and this figure has been falling. In July, it registered a 1.3% decline from the same month the previous year. In August it fell 4.3%, and in September, it dropped 6% from a year earlier.
A bit of this gloom makes sense, economists say. The limp stock market makes people feel less wealthy and discourages spending. Fuel prices were high during the quarter. The weather was bad: In July, Tokyo had a total of just 59 hours of sunshine, compared with an average of 172 in recent years. Less sunlight can mean people spend less on the kind of things they normally enjoy during the summer, such as clothes, ice cream and trips to the ocean. The bad weather also pushed up vegetable prices, leaving people with less to spend on other things.
Economists say the picture isn't as bad as the government data make out. Unemployment in Japan has hovered around 4.1% since February, the lowest average level since 1997, and more people are looking for work, now that the Japanese economy seems to be growing steadily. Growth means the Japanese as a whole are earning more than before, which would normally lead to stronger consumer spending.
"The weak consumption recorded by the erratic household-spending survey does not look credible," says Richard Jerram, economist at Macquarie Securities.
The problem, according to Mr. Jerram and others, is that the household-survey data yield bizarre results. Partly that is because the sample of households is too narrow. It could also be because the survey is excessively detailed, making it hard for the households to keep track of their spending. Instead of asking how much people spend on food, for example, it has 10 categories just for root vegetables -- including separate entries for onions, bamboo shoots and lotus roots.
As a result, says Masaaki Kanno, economist at J.P. Morgan: "The weakness is real ... but the numbers are far weaker than the underlying strength of consumption." Economists say the government's later reports of GDP for the quarter will get nearer to reality, as other consumption data become available.
At least there isn't any controversy over one part of the Japanese economy -- exports, which are expected to contribute 0.3 to 0.5 percentage point to any growth announced next week. During the past year or so, imports grew faster than exports because of strong consumer spending, sapping growth in domestic production. Exports have been recovering this year as high gasoline prices in the U.S. generate demand for fuel-efficient Japanese cars. Longer term, too much dependence on exports for growth could be risky, especially if growth slows in Japan's main export market, the U.S.
Barring a shock, most economists say Japan should keep growing over the next year or so. The biggest reason is healthy corporate profits, with those of publicly listed companies having increased an average 16% for the six months ended Sept. 30, according to a preliminary estimate by the business daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun. Healthy profits make companies more likely to hire more staff and raise pay in the future, which could mean it is only a matter of time before consumption grows again.
"Business demand is doing OK, including business investment," says Kiichi Murashima, economist at Nikko Citigroup in Tokyo. "This supports the ... view that the spillover to households is taking time."
日本经济增速到底有多慢？
日本7-9月的经济增速到底有多慢？
日本政府将于下周公布第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据，民间经济学家称他们预计第三季度GDP只会比上一季度增长0.3%，折合成年率约为1%。一些经济学家称，他们认为GDP甚至可能会降低。
如此悲观的结果意味着日本这个全球第二大经济体连续二个季度经济增长缓慢，日本4-6月的经济增长率折合成年率为1%。经济疲软会使东京股市受挫，目前东京证交所股票价格指数一直停留在年初的水平，较4月的高点低7%。
但是这些数据或许没有体现日本经济发展的全貌。大多数经济学家称，他们认同经济增长在过去一段时间有所放缓的观点，但是政府的数据夸大了这种负面状况，日本经济或许已在本季度加速增长了。
日本的消费数据令人迷惑。这些数据往往会在日后被修正，勾勒出完全不同的经济画卷。消费支出占日本GDP的55%，因此也成为迄今为止日本经济增速的最大决定因素。经济学家们称，他们预计这些初步数据将显示消费支出下降，从而拖累经济增长。
一些用于计算GDP消费组成部分的数据来自政府的家庭支出调查，这一调查数字一直在下降。7月，这个指标较上年同期下降了1.3%，8月下降了4.3%，9月下降了6% 。
经济学家称，这些经济数据中一部分还是有道理的。股市低迷让人们觉得自己不那么富有，因此会减少了支出。7-9月的能源价格走高，而且同期日本的天气很差：7月，东京阳光明媚的时间总共只有59小时，最近几年这个指标平均为172小时。晴朗时间减少可能意味着人们会减少夏天通常享受的一些东西，比如衣服、冰激凌以及去海滩旅行等。糟糕的天气还推高了蔬菜价格，这也会降低人们在其他方面的支出。
不过，经济学家称经济的整体状况并没有政府数据反映的那么差。日本的失业率自2月以来一直维持在4.1%左右，这是自1997年以来的最低水平。日本经济似乎在稳定增长，越来越多的人开始找工作。就业增长意味着日本人整体上赚的钱比以前多了，通常这会带来更加强劲的消费支出。
麦革理证券(Macquarie Securities)的经济学家理查德?热朗(Richard Jerram)说：“家庭支出调查得出的消费支出减弱结论似乎并不可信。”
据热朗及其他经济学家说，问题是家庭调查数据得出的结果很不规律。其原因之一是取样家庭群体范围过窄。另一个原因可能是调查内容过于细节化，家庭成员很难对自己的支出情况进行记录。比如，这个调查中针对根茎类蔬菜的消费支出就列出了洋葱、竹笋以及莲耦等10个类别，而不是单单调查人们在食物上的支出是多少。
JP摩根(J.P. Morgan)的经济学家Masaaki Kanno因此说，“经济疲软是事实……但是数据远比消费的潜在势头弱得多。”经济学家说，随着其他消费数据陆续出炉，政府修正后的上季度GDP报告会更接近真实。
至少外界对日本经济的一个方面不存在争议──出口，预计出口会为上季度的经济增长率贡献0.3-0.5个百分点。在过去一年左右的时间，强劲的消费势头以及国内生产缓慢增长导致进口增速快于出口。今年日本出口有所增长，因为美国汽油价格高企催生了人们对日本节能型汽车的需求。从长期角度来看，过度依赖出口的经济增长充满了风险，特别是在日本的主要出口市场──美国的经济增长出现放缓时更是如此。
大多数经济学家称，不出意外的话，日本经济在未来一年左右的时间内应该保持增长势头。这种预测最主要的原因是日本公司的高利润。据商业日报《日本经济新闻》(Nihon Keizai Shimbun)初步估计，在截至9月30日的6个月中，日本上市公司的利润平均增长了16%。高利润将促使公司雇佣更多人员，并在将来提高职员薪水。这也意味着消费支出增加只是个时间问题。
日兴花旗(Nikko Citigroup)的经济学家Kiichi Murashima说，包括商业投资在内的企业需求还不错，这支持了家庭支出终会改善的观点。
Sebastian Moffett
