Dollar May Make
Corrective Rebound
Having sunk to record lows the past week, the dollar will clearly be hoping for some respite this week.
Japanese markets are closed Monday and the U.S. is closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day, so market conditions will be thinner than usual. This will likely limit more-cautious investors' appetite for trading while possibly tempting the risk takers into the market.
A corrective rebound or reduction in hefty short-dollar positions -- bets against the dollar -- appear to be the most likely sources of relief for the beleaguered U.S. currency, analysts said. Continued dollar-buying intervention from Japanese monetary authorities also will lend the dollar some support.
But loose U.S. monetary policy, hints of protectionism from the Bush administration, renewed fears over global terrorism and the dollar's recent inability to rally on positive U.S. economic data are combining to serve as a powerful weight on the currency, analysts said.
Those factors conspired to drive the dollar to a record low against the euro and multiyear lows against other currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars last week, and they aren't about to disappear anytime soon.
"I think we'll be in consolidation mode," said Marcel Kasumovich, a global head of G-10 strategy at Merrill Lynch in New York.
Predicting a range of $1.1810 to $1.1960 for the euro this week, he said market positioning is stacked heavily against the dollar, which increases the likelihood of a correction. At the same time, he recognized that this is simply because the market is bearish on its near-term prospects.
In late trading Friday in New York, the euro was at $1.1917 compared with $1.1913 in New York late Thursday. The dollar was at 108.77 yen, down a touch from 108.94 yen late Thursday and was at 1.2979 Swiss francs, down from 1.2994 francs a day earlier. The pound was at $1.7034, compared with $1.7040.
Following the dollar's breakdown last week, many market participants are lowering their forecasts for the currency. Analysts at Credit Suisse First Boston now expect the euro to climb as high as $1.24 within three months compared with previous calls of $1.18.
"We expect the dollar to undershoot further as U.S. monetary policy is set to remain reflationary," wrote CSFB currency strategists in a note explaining their revision Friday. "The [Federal Reserve] sees no inflationary risks associated with the decline of the dollar, and actively welcomes some rise in the rate of inflation."
Perhaps even more instructively, Citibank, one of the largest traders in the $1.2 trillion-a-day currency market and longstanding dollar bull, last week abandoned all its long-dollar positions, which effectively had been bets that the dollar would strengthen in the near term.
The bank still believes the dollar will eventually post a cyclical recovery as the strength of the U.S. economy becomes the major driving force for the market. Right now, that's simply not happening.
"Positive surprises such as the last [U.S.] payrolls report . . . have generated little or no reaction in comparison to the rush to sell dollars prompted by trade war or terror scares," wrote ABN Amro currency strategists in a research note.
There are several U.S. economic data releases on tap this week that could reverse this trend. They include November consumer confidence and revised third-quarter growth figures Tuesday, and October durable-goods orders and a snapshot of the Chicago manufacturing sector for November on Wednesday.
Unfortunately for the dollar, ballooning U.S. current account and fiscal deficits are more of a driver than economic indicators. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said last week that U.S. markets are flexible enough to withstand the current-account deficit and said the risks it poses to the dollar are overblown. But he admitted that any increase in protectionist U.S. trade policies could change that.
美元：给我一个感恩的理由
在过去一周里创下历史低点的美元本周显然期待有喘息的机会。
日本外汇市场本周一将闭市，美国市场周四又逢感恩节假日，因此市况将比平时清淡。这有可能在吸引富于冒险精神的投资者入市的同时，限制那些谨慎型投资者的交易投意愿。
分析师认为，大量美元空头头寸逐渐减少，或回调反弹似乎将是遭受重挫的美元最有可能得到解脱的途径。
日本货币管理当局持续买入美元干预汇市的行为亦将为美元提供些许支撑。
但分析师指出，美国所采取的宽松的货币政策、布什(Bush)政府的贸易保护主义苗头、对全球恐怖主义的再度担忧以及美元近来无力对乐观的美国经济数据作出回应的事实，诸多因素交织在一起，对美元汇率构成了相当大的压力。
上述种种因素推动美元兑欧元上周创下历史新低，兑澳元和新西兰元等其他货币亦创下数年低点，而这些因素并不会很快消失。
美林公司(Merrill Lynch)驻纽约十大工业国策略全球负责人马塞尔?卡苏莫维奇(Marcel Kasumovich)认为，市场将进入调整阶段。
卡苏莫维奇预计本周欧元/美元汇率将在1.1810-1.1960美元区间内波动，他认为目前市场上堆积了过多的看跌美元头寸，这使市场出现调整的可能性增大了。与此同时，他承认造成此种情形的内在原因在于市场看跌美元的近期前景。
纽约汇市上周五尾盘，欧元兑1.1916美元，纽约汇市周四尾盘时为1.1913美元。美元兑108.78日圆，略低于纽约汇市周四尾盘时的108.92日圆。美元兑1.2980瑞士法郎，与纽约汇市周四尾盘时的1.2983瑞士法郎基本持平。英镑兑1.7037美元，纽约汇市周四尾盘时为1.7041美元。
在美元上周遭受重挫之后，许多市场参与者调低了他们对于美元汇率的预期。瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston, CSFB)分析师目前预计，欧元3个月内将攀升至1.24美元的高点，而他们此前预计欧元将升至1.18美元。
CSFB外汇策略师上周五在一份解释他们下调对于美元汇率预期的研究报告中写道，随著美国将继续沿袭倾向通货再膨胀的货币政策，他们预计美元汇率将进一步下挫。他们写道，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, Fed)认为美元汇率下挫与通货膨胀风险无关，因此Fed对于通货膨胀率的适度上升持欢迎态度。
但更具启发意义的也许在于，在日交易额达1.2万亿美元的外汇市场上交易量最大、且长期以来一直坚定地看涨美元的花旗银行(Citibank)上周却解除了其所持的所有美元多头头寸，实际上放弃了认为美元近期将走强的信念。
虽然花旗银行依旧认为，随著美国经济的强势将成为汇市的主要推动力量，美元汇率最终将实现周期性复苏，但目前阶段而言，这种情形尚未出现。
ABN AMRO外汇策略师在上周五的一份研究报告中写道，最新公布的美国就业报告等带给人们惊喜的经济数据对于美元汇率几乎没有产生影响，而对于贸易战或恐怖主义的恐慌情绪却促使市场上掀起了抛售美元的狂潮。
本周将要公布的几项美国经济数据有望扭转这种趋势。其中包括：定于周二公布的11月份消费者信心和美国第三季度经济增长率修正数据，定于周三公布的10月份耐用品订单和11月份芝加哥制造业数据。
对于美元汇率而言，不幸之处在于，较之经济指标，日益飞涨的美国经常项目和财政赤字的影响更大。
上周公布的数据显示，9月份净流入美国股市和债市的海外资金跌至5年新低。对于美国为其经常项目赤字融资所需的每年大约5,000亿美元外资流入而言，这无异于杯水车薪，令人对于美国经常项目赤字的前景生忧。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)分析师推测，为使得经常项目赤字在其国内生产总值(gross domestic product, GDP)中所占比重下降1%，美元兑大部分其他货币将不得不再贬值10%。美国目前的经常项目赤字已占到其GDP的大约5.1%，不久可能还会达到6%。
Fed主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)上周发表讲话表示，美国金融市场的灵活性足以承受当前的经常项目赤字水平，市场对于经常项目赤字对美元汇率所带来的风险有些言过其实。但格林斯潘亦承认，美国贸易政策中保护主义抬头的任何倾向都可能有会使形势发生改变。
布什政府上周启动了可能导致对某些从中国进口的纺织品实施临时性配额限制的保护性程序，此举引发了市场对于在2004年总统选举临近之际美国国内贸易保护主义风潮再度抬头的担忧。苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank Of Scotland)驻纽约北美地区首席经济学家拉姆?巴加万杜里(Ram Bhagavatula)指出，这种政策实际上就是变相的货币贬值。
市场参与者目前正在等待美国政府对于世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization, WTO)就美国钢铁关税违反WTO规则的裁决作出反应。日本、欧盟(European Union)、中国以及美国的其他几个贸易伙伴一直表示，如果美国不放弃对于进口钢铁产品征收惩罚性高关税的话，他们有可能会提高对美国进口的部分产品的关税。
