SLOWING DOWN OR SPEEDING UP？
It is a measure of the conundrum that is China that investors, economists and even policy-makers in Beijing are divided about whether the economy is slowing down or speeding up.
After expected gross domestic product growth of 8.5 per cent in 2003, the government has set a conservative target of just 7 per cent for next year. Bearish forecasters such as Morgan Stanley forecast a touch more. The bulls, led by Goldman Sachs, expect an acceleration to 9.5 per cent. And looking at construction activity or electricity demand suggests that these "official" measures of GDP are understating China's actual expansion by three to four percentage points.
On one level, this seems a rather esoteric debate. Whichever number proves correct, China will surely remain the world's fastest-growing major economy. In truth, it matters hugely - and not just to China.
With imports growing at 40 per cent a year, the world's workshop has become the price-setter for oil, metals, minerals and shipping rates. In Asia, its thirst for raw materials and components has helped restart growth, not least in Japan and South Korea.
Meanwhile, Chinese exports are keeping US consumers spending and its foreign exchange reserves are plugging the US current account deficit. A deviation in Chinese growth of a couple of per cent could have a big impact on global commodity, currency and stock prices - either up or down.
So which is it? For much of 2003, Beijing's prime concern has been that growth was too frenetic, as shown by incipient bubbles in certain urban property markets, as well as the motor vehicle, steel and aluminium industries. Accordingly, the central bank was given permission in September to rein in credit growth in order to slow things down.
But this hawkish consensus, if it ever really existed, appears to have broken down. In a recent interview with the FT, Wu Xiaoling, central bank vice-governor denied the economy was overheating. This suggests that bank lending to the non-financial sector, which rose by more than 50 per cent in the first nine months of 2003, will continue to grow rapidly.
This attempt at policy-directed moderation may, however, be giving way to one caused by capacity constraints. As winter approaches, power shortages are causing widespread factory shutdowns that already appear to be delaying foreign investment and could dampen growth at the margin. Some cities have even switched off their traffic lights.
In the end, this might be no bad thing: despite the short-term adverse impact on global demand, a soft slowdown now is preferable to a hard landing later. Investors should watch those traffic lights.
If China is slowing, perhaps India is at last ready to take its place? Indian finance minister Jaswant Singh told the FT last week India "stands on the edge of explosive economic growth".
And no, it is not down to all those call centres manned by software specialists - however impeccable their English accents are. Mr Singh is pinning his hopes on a second "green revolution" in agriculture, still 25 per cent of GDP, and the prowess of India's manufacturing centre.
There is something to this. A good monsoon should boost economic growth this year to above 7 per cent (from 4.4 per cent). And India's capital efficiency may actually be greater than China's. Very roughly, capital investment in China has run at about 40 per cent of GDP over the past decade, generating 8 per cent growth - or 20 cents of growth per dollar of investment. India, with growth of 6 per cent on investment of 25 per cent, has managed 24 cents on the dollar.
Goldman Sachs, in its October report on big emerging economies (Dreaming with BRICs) also estimated that over the very long term, Indian growth of 5 per cent per annum over the next 30 years, would outpace China.
That, of course, depends on sound macroeconomics. Antiquated labour laws, a consolidated fiscal deficit of almost 11 per cent and India's massive bureaucracy are all hurdles that need to be overcome. As Mr Singh himself admitted: "My civil service is not very civil."
Asian equities have had a splendid 2003, with local currency gains of about 35 per cent - and more in dollar terms. The US revival has helped but much of it, once again, is due to the pull from China: mainland stocks listed in Hong Kong have doubled.
So a decline in Chinese growth is one thing for investors to watch. Another is political risk, with eight countries going to the polls in 2004.
On the plus side, however, Asian earnings should grow by 25 per cent and the forward price earnings ratio (ex-Japan) is only 13. Liquidity also remains healthy. Foreign funds have put $80bn into the region since January 2002. And if domestic households, with their vast savings, ever discover shares, that could help underpin stocks - whatever happens to China's growth.
在放缓还是在加速？
中国如谜，难以揣度。中国经济发展究竟是在放缓，还是在加速，投资者、经济学家，甚至北京的决策人都意见不一。
2003年中国的国民生产总值增长率可望达到8.5%，在此形势下，政府却保守地把明年的目标定为7%。包括摩根士丹利在内的熊市论者预测实际增长率会略高于这一数字。以高盛公司为首的牛市论者则预测中国经济将加速增长，国民生产总值的增长率将达到9.5%。如果去看红红火火的建筑业，或是新近出现的电荒，我们似乎可以认为这些"官方"的国民生产总值数字将中国实际发展速度低估了三到四个百分点。
在某个层面上看，这场争论似乎只有内行人才闹得明白。不管最后哪个数字正确，中国肯定还是世界上发展最快的经济体。但事实上，这争论却又有重大意义，而且这意义还不限于中国。
目前，中国的进口正以年均40%的速度飞速增长。这个号称世界工厂的国家在石油、金属、矿物和海运等方面已经掌握了控价权。在亚洲，中国对原材料和零部件的迫切需求能够帮助该地区(不仅是日本和韩国) 实现经济的振兴。
在此同时，中国的出口让美国消费者能够持续消费；中国巨大的外汇储备帮美国减少了现有的财政帐户赤字。中国的增长上升或下降一两个百分点，都会对全球商品、货币、股票的价格产生巨大影响，使之出现相应的升降。
那么，究竟是升是降？2003年大部分时期，北京主要的担心是经济发展过热，一些城市的房地产市场以及汽车、钢铁和铝制品行业都出现了泡沫。为此，中央银行获准限制信贷，让增长缓慢下来。
但是，这一强硬立场即便曾经存在过，看上去现在也已荡然无存。中国央行副行长吴晓灵在最近接受《金融时报》采访时，对经济过热的说法予以了否认。这说明银行对非金融领域的贷款还将快速增长。在2003年的前九个月，此类贷款就增加了50%以上。
但是，政策指导下的现代化过程可能将受到产能的局限。随着冬季的降临，电力短缺导致大量工厂停工，这会延缓外商投资，进而让增长略有放缓。有些城市甚至连红绿灯也关了。
从长远来讲，这一问题也不一定是坏事。尽管短期内它会对全球需求产生影响，现在软放缓总比以后硬着陆好。投资人应该仔细留意中国经济的红绿灯。
如果经济放缓了，或许印度最终可以取而代之？印度财政部长贾斯旺特o辛格(Jaswant Singh) 上周就对《金融时报》表示，印度正"站在爆炸性增长的边缘。"
不过不会。不管印度的电话服务中心如何兴盛，他们的软件人才英语口音如何纯正，还是不会取代中国。辛格先生希望占国民生产总值25%的农业出现第二次"绿色革命" ，还寄希望于印度发达的生产中心。
他的希望也有些道理。如果有个好的雨季，印度今年的经济增长可能会从4.4%上升到7%以上。印度的资金效率也可能高于中国。粗略算来，过去十年来中国的资金投资可能占国民生产总值的40%，由此产生8%的增长率。换言之，一美元投资产生20美分的增长。印度的资金投资占国民生产总值25%，产生6%的增长率，也就是说，印度一美元投资能产生24美分的增长。
高盛公司在十月份发布了一份名为《巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国四国畅想》(Dreaming with BRICs) 的发展中国家经济预测报告。报告预测，从长期来看，如果印度未来三十年内保持5%的增长率，最终会超过中国。
当然，能否实现这一目标取决于宏观经济状况。过时的劳动法、总额接近11%的财政赤字、庞大的官僚机构，这都是有待克服的障碍。辛格先生本人也承认，"我们的公务员不太忙公务。"
2003年亚洲证券市场形势大好。按本国货币计算，增长约为35%，如果兑换成美元则更高。美国的经济复苏有所帮助，但是，证券市场的繁荣主要还是中国推动的结果，中国大陆在香港上市的股票数翻了一番。
所以，中国经济发展是否减速是投资者需要关注的一件事。另外要关注的是政治风险。2004年有8个国家要进行大选。
但是乐观的是，亚洲的收益将增长25%，而期货价格指数(日本除外) 却只有13。清算方面也继续保持健康。自从2002年1月以来，该地区吸收了800亿美元的外资注入。如果巨大的家庭储蓄投入到股市，股市自然会大振，更是会让中国经济产生无可限量的增长。
