Beijing Begins to Pay Heed To Sounds of Growth Strain
China's economy is looking more ragged heading into 2004, as the government attempts to cope with a surge of raw-material imports, electricity shortages and a rising death toll from industrial accidents.
In a series of measures beginning last week, Beijing announced plans to curb spending, raise some energy prices and tinker with the supply of credit. The initiatives, mostly spearheaded by China's State Council, or cabinet, aim to cool hot industries, such as property and construction, and cushion the nation's bigger state-owned companies from an onslaught of smaller competitors. Many analysts say the moves are moderate enough to ensure the economy maintains its strong momentum next year at about 8% annualized growth.
Taken together, though, the steps reveal rising concern about the effect of fast growth. A volatile mix of property-market collapses, energy shortages and worker layoffs could unleash a period of instability not seen for a decade, analysts say. During the late 1980s, an economic boom preceded protests about leadership corruption, which culminated in student demonstrations at Tiananmen Square and a bloody military suppression in the spring of 1989. A few years later, speculative property bubbles spurred runaway inflation and widespread loan defaults when banking credit was capped.
"If the experience of the last 20 years has taught us anything, it is that you can't wait until things get too hot," says Lu Deming, a professor of economics at Fudan University in Shanghai. "We need more balanced growth now."
These concerns come as China nears the end of a blistering year of growth. Factories have been working overtime to meet orders for exports and, increasingly, the tastes of wealthy urban consumers. Chinese have been borrowing to buy automobiles, apartments and home furnishings. China's exports for the first 11 months of 2003 climbed 32.9% compared with the same period last year, while imports shot up 39.1%. The government expects China's economy to expand 8.5% for the full year, and several forecasts from Western investment banks are higher than that.
China's fixed-asset investment, which rose 29.6% for the first 11 months of 2003 from a year earlier, has propelled the growth. For months, many Chinese economists argued such spending was needed to keep the economy on track during and after the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, which scared away foreign investors and dented business activity.
But stellar growth has brought problems. Surging imports highlight a strain to meet demand for energy and natural resources. Domestic shortages have pushed up prices for coal, oil and steel. In a "white paper" report released last week, the State Council said China would continue to import large quantities of oil and minerals as it strives to bolster domestic supplies.
The nation's energy crunch has hit home this winter. Many provinces and regions have gone for periods without electricity, disrupting local economies. On Friday, China announced it will raise power tariffs from the beginning of 2004 to help power plants offset rising costs.
To curb consumption, the State Council said Thursday it would start limiting entry of companies to some industries, in part by restricting approval for new projects and controlling the use of land. In a separate move Friday, Chinese regulators reduced the amount of money that can be borrowed using bonds as collateral in so-called repurchase-agreement trades. (See related article.) The adjustment, while technical, may help reel in borrowing without raising interest rates, which analysts expect would happen only if the U.S. moves in that direction.
The frenetic pace of industry could be creating other problems. In spite of government spending to improve safety standards, China remains one of the world's most dangerous places to work. China's manufacturing and mining industries reported a 9.6% increase in deaths for the first 10 months of the year from the same period a year earlier, while the number of accidents rose 5.3%.
The latest setback came last week with a huge gas explosion in Chongqing municipality that killed about 200 people. New York and Hong Kong-listed PetroChina Co. owns the well while its parent, China National Petroleum Corp., was operating it. Both companies have stepped up oil and gas exploration and PetroChina is building a cross-country gas pipeline to provide China's booming cities with cleaner energy.
Though the government notes only two other gas explosions since 1992 -- with the death toll amounting to a total of 17 people -- the Chongqing explosion was especially deadly because of inadequate precautions, according to Huang Yi, a spokesman for the State Administration of Work Safety. Mr. Huang said the results of an investigation would be released soon, but he added that it appeared CNPC was ineffective in implementing emergency plans, such as educating villagers about how to survive a poisonous-gas leak. CNPC couldn't be reached for comment regarding the investigation. On Friday, CNPC issued an emergency notice ordering its companies to check production safety in gas fields, according to the Xinhua news agency.
The new government measures are expected to release some steam from the economy. Investment and approval restrictions should deter smaller companies that have been piling into cement, steel and property industries and help bigger companies that have been competing for new projects, according to a senior executive for Tangshan Steel Group Corp., the largest steelmaker in northern Hebei province.
"There are so many small companies around us fighting for raw materials," he says. "Our profits have been squeezed."
Still, Beijing is likely to shy away from bolder prescriptions to cool the economy. Like a decade ago, China's banks are bloated with bad debts and heavily exposed to the property market. A slowdown could undermine the ability of companies and home buyers to repay loans. And even if the economy grows as fast as 8% next year, jobs are expected to remain in short supply, especially in the impoverished countryside.
Says the Tangshan Steel executive: "The government doesn't really want overall economic growth to slow down."
中国开始关注经济增长过热问题
进入2004年，中国的经济运行状况将更不平稳：原材料进口大量增长、电力短缺以及工伤事故死亡人数增加等问题，都有待中国政府去解决。
从上周开始，中国政府就颁布了一系列措施，旨在控制支出，提高部分能源价格，以及改变信贷供应增长过快的状况。这些措施大多由国务院(State Council)颁布，目的就是限制部分行业的过度扩张，比如房地产和建筑行业，同时降低一些规模较小的竞争对手对国有大企业构成的竞争威胁。很多分析师说，这些措施都很温和，能够确保中国经济明年继续保持大约8%的强劲增长。
不过，各方面综合考虑，这些措施反映出中国政府对高速增长产生的负面影响越来越担心。分析师说，房地产市场的萎缩、能源短缺以及工人下岗等动荡因素的组合，有可能使中国进入10年来最不稳定的阶段。在1989年的"天安门"事件爆发前，中国经济就处于快速增长阶段。事件后的几年中，房地产泡沫导致了通货膨胀失去控制，大量银行贷款都没有收回。
复旦大学(Fudan University)经济学教授陆德明说，"如果说过去20年教给了人们什么的话，那就是不能等到经济过热了再去采取措施。中国经济更需要均衡发展。"
虽然在即将过去的2003年中，中国经济突飞猛进，但在岁末之际，人们却不禁产生了上述担心。工厂一直忙著加班赶出口订单，或者是忙著满足富裕起来的城市居民的消费胃口。中国人已经开始通过消费信贷买房、买车、搞装修。今年前11个月，中国出口较上年同期增长了32.9%；进口增长了39.1%。中国政府预计中国经济全年的增长率将达到8.5%，但一些外国投资银行的预期比这还要高一些。
今年前11个月，中国固定资产投资较上年同期增长29.6%，这大大推动了整体经济的增长。数月以来，很多中国的经济学家都纷纷表示，企业支出的快速增长对非典型肺炎(severe acute respiratory syndrome, 简称SARS)爆发后经济回到正常运行轨道是很有必要的。SARS吓跑了外国投资者，使经济活动受到打击。
但这样高速的增长也会带来问题。进口的大量增长，反映出国内供给已难以满足经济发展对能源和天然资源的需要。国内资源短缺导致煤炭、石油和钢铁的价格上扬。国务院在上周公布的《白皮书》(white paper)中说，为了提高国内的供应水平，中国将继续大量进口石油及其他矿产资源。
今年冬天，中国的能源供应紧张问题格外突出。很多省份和地区都发生过断电，严重干扰了当地的经济发展。上周五，中国宣布从2004年开始将提高电价，帮助发电厂解决发电成本上升的问题。
为了控制消费，国务院上周四表示将在一定程度上通过放缓项目审批、限制土地使用等办法，在某些行业限制新公司的进入。另外，上海证券交易所上周五宣布，下调多数债券的回购折算率（利用国债抵押融资的比率）。这项技术性调整可以在不提高利率的情况下抑制借款融资行为。分析师们预计，只有美国加息，中国才有可能随之提高贷款利率。
工业快速增长还引发了其他的问题。虽然中国政府投入大笔资金提高安全标准，但中国仍然是世界上工作环境最危险的地方之一。今年前10个月，中国制造业和采矿业的工伤死亡人数较上年同期增长了9.6%，事故发生数量增长了5.3%。
最新的一起事故发生在上周，重庆一个天然气井发生大爆炸，造成大约200人死亡。在纽约和香港上市的中国石油(PetroChina Co.)是事故矿井的所有者，其母公司中国石油天然气集团公司(China National Petroleum Corp.)则是矿井的经营者。两家公司都在提高石油和天然气的开采量，中国石油正在建造一条跨国境的天然气管道，为中国日益繁荣的城市提供更清洁的能源。
1992年以来，中国政府公布的天然气井爆炸事件只有两起，死亡人数为17人。但国家安全生产监督管理局(State Administration of Work Safety)发言人黄毅说，此次重庆发生的天然气井爆炸事故，伤亡之所以如此重大是因为防范措施不足。他表示，事件调查结果将很快公布，而中国石油天然气总公司似乎在落实应急措施方面不够得力，比如没有对矿井附近村民进行必要的安全知识普及，使他们了解在发生毒气泄漏时应当如何应对。目前记者尚未采访到该公司的人员对调查予以置评。据新华社报导，该公司上周五发布紧急通知，命令旗下各个公司检查各天然气田的安全生产状况。
中国政府的一系列新举措有望给经济降降温。河北省最大的钢铁制造商唐山钢铁(Tangshan Steel Group Corp.)的一位高层管理人员说，对投资和项目审批的限制会阻止较小规模的公司涌入水泥、钢铁和房地产等行业，从而有利于一直在竞争新项目的大型公司。
他说，有很多小公司和他们争夺原材料，这造成了公司利润率的下降。
不过，中国政府不大可能用更猛的药方来给经济降温。就像10年前一样，中国的银行充斥著坏帐，大量的贷款都投向了房地产业。经济增长放缓可能削弱企业及购房者的还款能力。即使中国经济明年仍能保持8%的增长速度，就业岗位仍然不足，在贫困的乡村地区尤其如此。
唐山钢铁的那位管理人士说，政府并不希望整个经济增长放缓。
